OB Odense vs Aalborg BK
FreeWhat a game yesterday, eh? I presume you all watched Sevilla CF vs Real Madrid, of course? If not, you’re an idiot! It was a tremendous footballing display by Sevilla CF and worked out exactly as I thought it would (minus one goal!). Real Madrid don’t look the same without Ronaldo – they look somewhat toothless when it comes to actual penetration. However, Sevilla CF looked ruthless, incisive, and eternally dangerous. If it hadn’t been for a very impressive Iker Casillas then this game could have been very embarassing for Real Madrid, who were frankly overrun many times in the game by a swift Sevilla CF attack. Real Madrid may have some of the world’s best attacking talents but they still cannot defend for shit, which backs up the point I made at the start of the season and underlies my claim that they won’t win anything this year. Frankly, it was a deserved win for Sevilla CF and if Jesus Navas plays like he did last night in every game then I really cannot fathom why he’s not in the Spanish national team!
Anyway, moving onto OB Odense vs Aalborg BK in Superligaen, which is today’s featured game! I wondered why the odds were so good for a home win here but a quick glance at the head-to-heads revealed just why that is with OB Odense having not recorded a home win against Aalborg BK in the Superligaen since 2005. However, they do enjoy winning at Aalborg BK, something that they’ve achieved for two years running now. Both of these sides are very good sides but I think OB Odense just edge it because of their consistency and efficiency. For instance, Aalborg BK had a very good run a few weeks ago but have currently lost two consecutive games at home to FC Copenhagen (a little surprising but acceptable) and at home to Silkeborg (completely unacceptable) respectively. Aalborg BK are the kind of side that either blow hot or cold – they don’t really have a “middle” form. OB Odense are generally very reliable, something that their form reflects perfectly with six wins in ten games and just one defeat on that run. OB Odense’s home form is the best in the league with four wins and one draw from five games, conceding just two goals on that run. In fact, they’ve conceded less goals at home than anyone else in the Superligaen in the season so far and look incredibly efficient when they have to be. Aalborg BK are amongst the biggest goalscorers away from home but as I said, they blow hot and cold, something that’s backed up by the fact that they’ve scored just one goal in their last two games. Although the quality difference is minimal between these two sides, there’s onlyone consistent side that I’d be happy backing on display and that’s OB Odense due to the above reasons. One side are professional and efficient whereas the other side are unreliable and relatively unpredictable. As they’re entering this game on the back of two straight wins, you have to feel that OB Odense not only have the ability but also the momentum to win this game so odds of 17/20 on the home win look very welcome indeed!
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
OB Odense vs Aalborg BK – home win at 17/20 – see introduction for full details.
Adelaide United vs Newcastle Jets – home win at evens. The A-League is a funny league in the sense that it’s just bizarre. Every side has the capability of beating each other and washed-up junkies like Robbie Fowler are once again recognised as good players. However, today sees the first game that I’m happy enough to call from a value perspective with Adelaide United hosting Newcastle Jets. Last season’s runners-up Adelaide United have made a slow start to this season but have now won two of their last three games and are now on the up again. Adelaide United’s game is more efficient than prolific but frankly it shouldn’t matter which style of football they decide to play because they’re hosting a Newcastle Jets team that haven’t won an away game all season and are on the back of three straight defeats. The visitors aren’t big conceders on the road but their big problem is that they don’t score enough goals on the road. For those reasons, I think a narrow home win is well within reach today so taking Adelaide United to win at evens could prove a good bet.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City – away win at 8/5. This is a very risky call but Manchester City’s form has gone some way to convince me that they can beat most sides in the Premier League when they turn up. Aston Villa are a good side on their day but so far this season they’ve been shaky in defence and lacking in goalscoring. Their home record this season reads that they’ve scored four goals and conceded two out of three home games thus far. The conceded section might be acceptable but the goals scored certainly isn’t, not for a sid that boasts the attacking prowess of Agbonlahor, Young and Carew in their ranks. Aston Villa’s lack of transfer activity disappointed me over summer, actually, when you consider that they nearly broke the “big four” last season and also lost key defender Martin Laursen over summer. However, I’m sure Martin O’Neill has something up his sleeve ’cause if he doesn’t, their season is going to be long and difficult, especially with such a small squad. Visitors Manchester City have won four of their last five games and are looking very much like a Mark Hughes prototype in that they’re efficient with winning games, something he perfected at Blackburn Rovers. Manchester City are starting to recuperate their crocked attack force and now actually have an alternative to Tevez and Bellamy. Ultimately, I think these two sides are going to cancel each other out in what I expect to be quite a droll encounter. However, these are the kind of games that Mark Hughes is training his side to win, something they’ve done very well so far this season and something I can see them doing tonight too. It should be a low-scoring affair but the away win at 8/5 could prove good value ultimately.
Tours vs FC Nantes – home win at 8/5. This is another risky call but we all know how good Tours are at home, something that was exemplified last season by them winning fourteen of nineteen home games, a record they’re aiming to emulate this season. Tours are doing a good job of maintaining that home record as they’ve played four home games this season, winning three and drawing once whilst only conceding every other game on average and scoring two goals per game on average. Visitors Nantes boast a very good squad that are capable of being in Ligue 1 and their form this season has indicated their intend to send their squad straight back to Ligue 1 with five wins in eight games. However, Nantes are very much a home side as they’ve won all of their home games this season. Their away form, by contrast, is poor and unreliable. They’ve won just once away from home out of four games, losing once to league leaders Stade Malherbe de Caen and drawing twice with Vannes OC and Bastia respectively, which isn’t really good enough for a side of Nantes’ ability. Although I could accept this game ending as a draw (hint: take at DNB!), I think there’s value in the home win for a very good Tours side at 8/5.
Sirius Uppsala vs Vasalunds – home win at evens. As the Superettan draws to a close, it’s time to stand up and be counted at both Sirius Uppsala and Vasalunds. Both of these sides face a very real chance of being relegated as they currently occupy bottom place and second bottom place respectively with four games to go. This is something of a make-or-break game for both sides so I do expect a tightly contested and passionate affair, perhaps with various cards being thrown around by the referee. Sirius Uppsala are without a win in four games but they’re hosting a Vasalunds side that have the undisputed worst away record in the Superettan with just one away win all season. Make no mistake, this is a risky call as both sides are about as bad as each other. However, I’m expecting the home advantage to play a big part in this tense affair and Sirius Uppsala to make a Vasalunds side (that concede over three goals per game away from home on average) taste defeat for what will be the third time in five games should they achieve it. For those reasons, taking the home win at evens could prove to be a good bet tonight.
Winterthur vs Thun – away win at 9/5. There’s not a lot between these two sides quality-wise so this should be a close game. Why am I backing the away win then? Well, my initial interest was awakened by the impressive form of Thun lately, having won four games in a row. They’re the second-highest goalscorers in the Challenge League and have won six of their nine games so far this season. Effectively, their momentum is strong at the moment and they’re taking on a Winterthur side that not only have zero wins in three games but also tasted defeat last match away to Liechtenstein’s Vaduz. Although I do expect this to be a close game, the fact that Thun won this fixture last year should give them a mental edge over Winterthur as well as their momentum so the away win at 9/5 could prove to be a good bet tonight.
As ever, any questions/explanations required, feel free to email me at thefootytipster@gmail.com. For the complete picks listing, see below!
Australian A-League:
Sydney FC vs Central Coast Mariners (6) 2-1
Adelaide United vs Newcastle Jets (7) 1-0
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
BATE Borisov vs Naftan Novopolotsk (8) 2-0
Bulgarian A PFG:
Beroe vs Pirin Blagoevgrad (6) under 2.5 goals
Chinese Super League:
Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye (5) 2-1
Shaanxi Zhongxin vs Dalian Shide (6) 1-1
Chengdu Blades vs Chongqing Lifan (7) 1-0
Jiangsu Shuntian vs Changsha Ginde (7) 2-1
Shenzhen FC vs Qingdao Jonoon (6) 0-0
Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan (7) 1-1
Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Lucheng (7) 2-0
Shanghai Shenhua vs Guangzhou Yiyao (6) 1-0
Cypriot Division 1:
Ermis vs APOEL Nicosia (9) 0-2
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slavia Prague vs Sparta Prague (8) 1-1
Danish Superligaen:
OB Odense vs Aalborg BK (8) over 2.5 goals
English Premier League:
Aston Villa vs Manchester City (7) 0-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
Klubi 04 Helsinki vs PK 35 Helsinki (6)
KooTeePee Kotka vs Viikingit Helsinki (8)
Finnish Kakkonen:
Lokho B:
Jazz Juniorit vs Sinimustat Turku (7)
French Ligue 2:
Tours vs FC Nantes (7)
German Bundesliga 2:
Karlsruher SC vs Arminia Bielefeld (7)
Greek Super League:
Asteras Tripolis vs Ergotelis (7) under 2.5 goals
Panionios vs Atromitos (6) 1-0
PAOK Salonika vs Iraklis (7) 2-1
Xanthi vs AEK Athens (6) under 2.5 goals
Panathinaikos vs Larissa (9) 2-0
Italian Serie B:
Torino vs Ancona (8)
Norwegian Tippeligaen:
Valerenga Oslo vs Viking Stavanger (6) 1-1
Norwegian 2 Divisjon:
Avdeling 1:
Start Kristiansand II vs Ullensaker Kisa (6)
Valerenga Oslo II vs KFUM Fotball Oslo (5)
Strommen vs Lillestrom II (8)
Avdeling 2:
Ullern vs Rosenborg BK II (6)
Strindheim vs Molde II (7)
Avdeling 3:
Randaberg vs Stromsgodset II (8)
Nest Sotra Agotnes vs Lyn Oslo II (6)
Fredrikstad II vs Drammen (6)
Avdeling 4:
Bodo Glimt II vs Manglerud Star Oslo (6)
Tromso II vs Asker Fotball (5)
Stabaek II vs Kjelsas Oslo (7)
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
CD Nacional vs Vitoria Guimaraes (7) under 2.5 goals
Pacos de Ferreira vs SL Benfica (8) 0-2
Portuguese Liga de Honra:
Desportivo Aves vs Gil Vicente (7)
Romanian Liga:
International vs FC Poli Timisoara (8) 0-1
Swedish Allsvenskan:
IFK Goteborg vs GAIS Goteborg (7) 2-1
Swedish Superettan:
Sirius Uppsala vs Vasalunds (6)
IFK Norrkoping vs Ljungskile (5)
GIF Sundsvall vs Syrianska Sodertalje (6)
Swiss Challenge League:
Winterthur vs Thun (6)
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