OGC Nice vs Sochaux
FreeToday’s featured game is the Ligue 1 encounter between OGC Nice and Sochaux. This game between the two relegation-threatened sides could prove pivotal long-term in the battle for survival in Ligue 1 so both sides will be keen to win this one.
Hosts OGC Nice have won six out of fourteen home games already this season, losing just five times along the way. They average scoring and conceding approximately 1.5 goals per home game which is why they don’t win as many as they should. However, the threat of relegation appears to have put a rocket up the proverbial arse of OGC Nice with three consecutive wins putting clear daylight between themselves and the drop zone. They’ve won all three games without conceding a goal, which is an impressive feat anyway, but when you consider that they’ve won at Le Mans and Toulouse as well as beating Paris Saint-Germain at home, you have to respect the current ability of OGC Nice. Perhaps that’s a tad harsh; OGC Nice are a capable side anyway but tend to fall short with goalscoring. However, they’ve mastered the art of scoring, if only temporarily, and their momentum has benefited immensely as a result, leaving them in a strong position ahead of tonight’s game.
Sochaux are the atypical home side and consistently let themselves down on the road each season. They’ve already lost seven out 0f fourteen away games this season, winning just twice along the way. Sochaux don’t concede many goals – just over a goal per away game in fact – but the fact that only bottom club Grenoble Foot have scored less goals on the road than they have spells out their problem all too clearly. Sochaux don’t even manage to score a goal every two away games on average so they tend to find themselves on the receiving end of results more often than not. Sochaux have lost two out of their last three away games, drawing the other game whilst scoring just once but conceding five times. The only way Sochaux tend to be able to get results on the road is to grind out a 0-0 draw but an in-form OGC Nice look unlikely to leave this game without scoring which means Sochaux are looking a little unlikely to take anything from this game as a result.
There’s not much between these two sides with both sides capable of being much higher in the Ligue 1 standings. However, out-of-form Sochaux often struggle on the road and their recent away form is no exception. OGC Nice are on a good run and aren’t conceding goals so look likely to take three points today at very generous odds of evens.
Verdict: OGC Nice to win at evens.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Argentinos Juniors vs Chacarita Juniors – home win at 10/11.
Argentinos Juniors are playing well at the moment but they’re walking a fine line with four 1-0 wins from their last five games, drawing the other game 1-1. They’re defending well and scoring efficiently so their momentum is strong but I do worry for them. Argentinos have only won once at home already this season so this is another concerning factor but one that does assist us with better odds so it’s an acceptable concern. Argentinos have punched above their weight in recent times but they’re still doing it effectively so I’m happy to back them again today with the newfound efficiency.
Visitors Chacarita Juniors have had a bizarre campaign thus far with random results both home and away. They’ve lost four out of their last five games and yet ended that run by emphatically beating Boca Juniors 4-1. What to make of this side? Who knows? It’s sides like Chacarita that make this job a nightmare! Nonetheless, quality-wise, Chacarita are not on the same map as Argentinos. Chacarita haven’t beaten Argentina in their last three attempts and I can’t see them doing so today after an unconvincing run of results despite their win last match because their hosts are too strong currently in both attack and defence so the home win should represent good value tonight.
Verdict: Argentinos Juniors to win at 10/11.
Naftan Novopolotsk vs Partizan Minsk – home win at 7/10.
I can’t substantiate this as much as I’d like other than by stating that Naftan Novopolotsk are a very reliable home side in the Vysshaya Liga. They were extremely good at home last season and are generally considered a “title threat” although the title always ends up with BATE Borisov anyway nowadays! Naftan have already played two cup games against Shakhtyor Soligorsk and have gained competitive match practice as a result. Visitors Partizan Minsk – formerly MTZ-RIPO Minsk – are a good side, much as thought their league placing last season showed otherwise. They’re a wealthy side that are owned by Romanov, the same man that owns Hearts in Scotland, so it’s only a matter of time before Partizan Minsk become a constant force in this division. However, they tend to struggle on the road whilst they’re bringing in new players all the time and struggle to find consistency as a result. Naftan Novopolotsk are nothing if not consistent so the home win should be good value today despite the odds looking short.
Verdict: Naftan Novopolotsk to win at 7/10.
Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin – home win at 3/4.
Gotta fancy Independiente for this one today! They’re a solid home side and have been for some time in Colombia as three wins, one draw, and just one defeat from their current campaign reflects. They average scoring nearly two goals per home game and have won their last two home games consecutively. They look a bit shaky defensively, which does underpin their attacking prowess, but they have tremendous belief which shows in their generally epic home wins regardless of who they play. Independiente are one of the better sides in Colombia and show it often when playing at home so stand a good chance of winning tonight.
Visitors Atletico Nacional de Medellin used to be a good side and are my favourite Colombian side but the fact is that nowadays they’re not as good as they were, unfortunately. They struggle a lot when it comes to goalscoring nowadays, particularly on the road, which tends to cause them considerable problems in regards to winning away games. Fortunately, Atletico Nacional have been competent defensively this season away from home which is why they’ve only lost twice in four away games. However, they’re only a stumble of form away from being rubbing rags on the road and I think they’ll find that out tonight as they face a potent and determined Independiente.
There’s a big gulf between the two sides and an even better one when you consider Independiente are a strong home side and Atletico are a poor away side. The odds are a bit short on the outcome but there’s certainly value in the selection.
Verdict: Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota to win at 3/4.
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Karlovac – home win at 11/10.
Most countries have a sound system in place to prevent the reserves of a club from entering the same division as their parent club but not in Croatia. Lokomotiva Zagreb are the reserve team of giants Dinamo Zagreb so you can see why they’re so successful with the massive financial backing for Dinamo Zagreb.
Although that is the fundamental point behind Lokomotiva’s success, the fact remains that they’ve won eight out of eleven home games this season already whilst boasting one of the best defensive records in the division at home. They enter this game on the back of a difficult but morale-boosting win against giants Hajduk Split and an impressive draw at high-flying Sibenik. Lokomotiva hav won all of their home games since returning from the winter break and will be further motivated in this game as they want to put Hajduk Split to even more shame by finishing above them despite being Dinamo’s reserves.
Visitors Karlovac have done well following promotion by making themselves hard to beat. However they do tend to struggle with Lokomotiva having lost their last trip here and having lost to them at home already this season. Karlovac have been unconvincing on the road since their return from the winter break with a draw at Zadar and a narrow win at Inter Zapresic so will face a tough test today. Karlovac are a capable side but things look to be against them today so I think we’ll see them stumble.
This should be a tenacious game with few goals but I think there’s value in the home win for a capable and efficient Lokomotiva.
Verdict: Lokomotiva Zagreb to win at 11/10.
Slovacko vs Slovan Liberec – home win at 7/5.
Slovacko are on a strong burst of momentum currently with two consecutive home wins against Slavia Prague and Ceske Budejovice respectively. They put in a good stint at Teplice and were unlucky to lose 2-1 so Slovacko are looking the part at the moment in their desperate bid to avoid relegation. Slovacko are a poor side as I’ve said in previous posts but momentum is a strange thing; it can perform wonders with the most unreliable of sides so it’s a wise idea to not underestimate Slovacko currently. Slovacko have scored five goals in three games so they’re looking potent and any side scoring goals and winning games is a dangerous opponent.
Slovan Liberec are the better of these two sides but are having a season to forget, particularly away from home. They’ve lost seven out of eleven away games in the Gambrinus Liga this season and average concedng nearly two goals per away game so it’s clear to see why they’re having problems. Slovan Liberec won their last away game but that was against a massively out-of-form Slavia Prague. They followed that game with an emphatic victory against Jablonec but again, this result was against their bitter rivals so isn’t really reflective of how they’re performing as a whole. Their best reflection of their current form came mid-week when they lost 2-0 at home to Sigma Olomouc in the Ondrasovka Cup, which was a poor result on many levels. Slovan Liberec seem to enjoy getting themselves motivated for the bigger games against bigger sides but struggle with the smaller sides. With little left in the Gambrinus Liga for them this season, Slovan Liberec will be looking to prepare for the second leg of their cup game with Sigma Olomouc in a few days time so may even rest players today, leaving their side looking weaker than normal.
Slovacko need three points here – Slovan Liberec don’t. The visitors are the better side but are likely to rest players today whereas the hosts will be fielding a strong squad to win a quintessential game for them and given their momentum burst, I have to favour the home win today at favourable odds.
Verdict: Slovacko to win at 7/5.
Manchester United vs Chelsea – home win at 6/4.
Ah, here’s today’s big game between the two giants of English football! It should be a great game so watch it if you can as both sides need three points.
Anyway, down to business! The main talking point is Wayne Rooney and his absence from this fixture. He’s a big loss consdering his potency this season but rarely tends to play against Chelsea anyway for varying reasons so I wouldn’t read too much into his absence. The absences I would read a lot into are those of Ashley Cole, Ivanovic, Bosingwa, and Ricardo Carvalho from an already stuttering Chelsea defence as defence is Chelsea’s strongest area.
Either way, we can assume both sides are missing players for this game and I’d say that the balance is quite even in terms of how important players are to their respective sides. Can United score without Rooney? Most certainly. United have won eight out of the nine games that they’ve played this season without Rooney so don’t get any misconceptions that United are a one-man side as many morons already think. The unique aspect of United’s sides – or more accurately Sir Alex Ferguson’s sides – is that no player is irreplaceable. As a United fan myself, I won’t lie to you – I will say until I’m blue in the face that we need another top class striker because we’ve only got Rooney – Berbs is great but a playmaking forward, Diouf is still learning, and Owen is frankly past it. However, despite that and despite a somewhat average season for United, we’re still going for the title because SAF sets up his sides to be efficient, to be well-organised – and he’s bloody good at it.
In games between United and Chelsea, United dominate – fact. The last Chelsea side to outplay United was under Jose Mourinho because he’s a top class manager. Chelsea have struggled for stability since then and often find their physical tactics useless against a United side that are physical themselves – they just play better football. If you recall the game at Stamford Bridge this season, United dominate the game and were undone by abysmal refereeing. It’s an old excuse, I know, but I’m not a brainless United fan unlike a lot of them, I promise! It was a horrific performance from the referee who gave incorrect free-kicks from which Chelsea eventually scored. I blame United for missing their chances – that’s our fault – but the referee didn’t help one iota. Still, that’s how football goes, but don’t think Chelsea will match United for football today because I seriously doubt they will, particularly under Italian stewardship.
United basically play better football. The result in Munich mid-week will have hit them hard but Ferguson will get them back on track as he always does. The motivation of both sides will be massive as United need to avoid defeat – although would love to win – and Chelsea realistically need to win the game. That makes this a more tense game than normal so I do expect cards here. However, recent history shows United’s dominance with two wins from two meetings without even conceding a goal whilst scoring five times so I’d be lying if I said I rate Chelsea on an even keel with United.
I’m trying very hard to view this game objectively and I think I’m doing damn well but the fact is that United are the better side overall in terms of their footballing style. United always play well at home against Chelsea – that’s just how it goes. Chelsea have claimed two big wins lately – an impressive and dominant win at Portsmouth but a rather flattering demolition of Aston Villa. Any side that scores seven goals in a game deserves respect, don’t get me wrong here, but I’d honestly say Villa were the better side for the vast majority of that game so I’m still not convinced.
Anyway, today will prove whether I’m right or wrong, as ever! I firmly believe United as the better side will play the better football in this game and create better chances. You never just know who will pop up and score for United but someone usually does. No Rooney = damage for the season as a whole (i.e. trips to Blackburn and Sunderland) but I don’t think it’ll affect the outcome of this game drastically, if I’m honest. I think United should win this game more comfortably than people expect them to and the odds are good odds to see it occur at.
Verdict: Manchester United to win at 6/4.
Arsenal vs Wolverhampton Wanderers – Wolverhampton Wanderers to win with +1.75 handicap at evens.
Arsenal are way too short for this game. They’re missing key players Arshavin, Gallas, and Fabregas for this game, they’re exhausted from their mid-week encounter with Barcelona, and will no doubt have their trip to Nou Camp next week in their minds. Arsenal are a very good side and very good sides tend to score goals irrespective of who plays for them which is why I am not laying them today as they’re very much capable of winning. However, they’re not at full-strength and they are weary so I expect to see a “lessened” Arsenal display today with more focus on the winning than the flambuoyancy.
Wolves have been oustanding in recent times. McCarthy has got them fired up to an immense level and now Wolves are not only playing good football but scoring goals too. As a result, confidence and momentum grows and the defence improves as a result of not trudging home after a defeat each week despite having played well. Bluntly, Wolves are on-fire at the moment and need to battle for every point as McCarthy knows only too well. Kevin Doyle is finally showing the form that he did when at Reading which first got him recognised and is beginning to find the net more often as a result. Hahnemann in goal is in inspired form at the moment and is helping Wolves massively. Wolves are unbeaten in four consecutive games whilst winning twice, both away from home. They’ve drawn at a difficult Aston Villa and haven’t lost by more than a single goal in three out of their last four defeats, the only exception being a very fortunate Chelsea side. This is the kind of game that Wenger would have dreaded after such a tough mid-week game but it’s what they’re stuck with.
I expect a very battling game today between these two in-form sides. However, Arsenal’s weariness, missing players, and big game next week should force a more efficient display from them than their usual fluid football. Wolves are playing very well, they’re highly-motivated, and they’re not losing games at the moment. Even when Wolves are losing they’re not losing by many either. All in all, giving Wolves a +2 head start in this game at evens looks a very good bet indeed today in my mind.
Verdict: Wolverhampton Wanderers to win with a +1.75 handicap at evens.
Ipswich Town vs Reading – away win at 7/4.
I know Ipswich are strong at home but these odds do surprise me. Reading are on-fire at the moment and look a threat to everyone that they face. They won at Leicester last match and drew at home to WBA last match so Reading are truly earning their reputation currently. They’re unbeaten in seven Championship games, winning five times along the way, and are playing very good football due to a strong burst of momentum. Ipswich lost their last home game against lowly Plymouth without even scoring so will have taken a mental blow ahead of their game with Reading. Ipswich haven’t even scored in their last two games consecutively so why the bookies price Reading at such long odds surprises me. It’s amazing that Reading were battling relegation a few weeks back and are now in with a very real chance of gaining promotion via the play-offs but that’s the beauty of football for you!
Either way, the odds on a strong and in-form Reading side to win this game are very generous indeed so it’s certainly worth a punt although taking it at draw no bet is an acceptable approach too.
Verdict: Reading to win at 7/4.
Levadia Tallinn vs Flora Tallinn – home win at 4/7.
I love these derbies. Over the past year, bookies underestimated the gulf that has opened between Levadia and Flora in Levadia’s favour and priced Flora with a realistic chance of taking something from the game so I personally made a lot of money backing Levadia along with many others no doubt! However, bookies have cottoned onto Levadia’s growing supremacy now, unfortunately, hence their realistic odds for this game. Nonetheless, 4/7 is a good price for something that I’d call a “dead cert” and I’m sure you bookie whores will no doubt find better odds somewhere so feel free to jump on board here! Levadia are far and away the best team in the Meistriliiga and they show it every season and I expect them to show it today.
Levadia have won the last five meetings between these two sides, including two at home. They won the Super Cup against Flora a few weeks ago (which I was unfortunately too late in noticing to make a one-off and put it on the site!) and will continue to beat Flora because they’re simply better than they are. Use some caution as it is a derby but Levadia are a real money-spinner in this game atypically.
Verdict: Levadia Tallinn to win at 4/7.
Stade Rennais vs Olympique Lyonnais – home win at 8/5.
Stade Rennais enter this game on the back of four consecutive wins, which is the last thing Lyon would have wanted entering this game as Rennes are already strong at home with ten wins in fourteen home games. Only Lille ad Montpellier have won more home games than Rennes this season and tonight’s hosts average scoring nearly two goals per home game to boot. Only Bordeaux and Montpellier have conceded less than Rennes have at home this season and Rennes flattened a compact Toulouse side 4-1 in their last home game so look very strong as a result. Rennes have scored eight goals in four games and basically look more than capable of taking the game to Lyon tonight just as they did in their 4-2 win against Bordeaux in February.
Visitors Olympique Lyonnais will have half an eye on their tough trip to Bordeaux next week so may rest players tonight. They’ve been poor on the road of late with defeat at bitter rivals Olympique de Marseille and a goalless draw at meager Boulogne so Lyon could struggle tonight, which bodes ominously for them as they lost here last season too. Lyon hate playing Rennes; they’ve not beaten them in their last five meetings in Lyon! Their last win against Rennes was on the road and that was in 2007 so Lyon are looking rather frail ahead of this trip tonight.
Two very good sides lock horns here and I expect a very good game with a lot of goals as a result. However, Rennes are very dominant at home on a consistent basis and Lyon could have eyes elsewhere as well as not travelling particularly well of late so the home win has rather flattering odds tonight.
Verdict: Stade Rennais to win at 8/5.
Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich – home win at 13/8.
Schalke 04 have a horrendous record in head-to-heads against Bayern Munich and there’s a good reason for that – it’s because Bayern Munich are a better side. However, as we all know in football, that isn’t the end of the equation. Schalke 04 have been superb this season and extremely reliable, particularly at home with ten wins in fourteen games so they’ll look forward to Bayern’s visit today. Schalke bring more momentum into this game than normal as they’ve won four out of their last five games, drawing the other game, despite facing Stuttgart, Dortmund, Leverkusen, Frankfurt, and Hamburg – five unbelievably difficult games – so they’re well-prepared for this encounter. I’d still lean towards the draw, however, had Bayern not got their injury problems with Robben a big doubt for this game and Bayern looking to rest at least some players ahead of their trip to England next week. Bayern deservedly won their game mid-week against Manchester United but don’t lose sight of the fact that they worked unbelievably hard to do so and will almost certainly feel the effects today. Does Van Gaal focus on this game or the Man Utd game? Does he try to focus on both? I think he loses either way, to be honest – Bayern don’t have the squad to compete on both fronts. Either way, a very tired Bayern facing an inspired Schalke makes the odds on the home win look very favourable indeed.
Verdict: Schalke 04 to win at 13/8.
Bari vs AS Roma – lay AS Roma at 6/5.
Why do the bookies think pricing Roma at 8/13 away from home makes sense when they’ve won just five in fifteen away games this season? They’re a very capable side and need to win the game but still – that’s not all that counts! I for one hope that they do it – I’d love to see them break the Internazionale hold on Serie A, if only temporarily. However, they concede way too many goals away from home, something proven on their trip to Livorno lately where Roma conceded a fifth of Livorno’s total goals scored at home this season! Roma are unreliable at best on the road and I’d think twice about taking them to win at Siena, let alone a very competent defensive side like Bari!
There’s an unbelievably good reason that Bari have only lost twice at home this season and it’s because they’re a rock solid side at home! Their pitch is a nightmare to play on, the atmosphere is intimidating, and few sides concede less goals than Bari at home. Bari won their last home game against an in-form Sampdoria and the only two sides to win here against them this season have been a fortunate Cagliari and a massively in-form (at the time) AC Milan who produced one of their best displays of the season. Bari are unbelievably good at home and why the bookies are overlooking that is mystifying me unless it’s yet more match fixing! Either way, the odds on laying Roma today look brilliant, in my opinion!
Verdict: Lay AS Roma at 6/5.
Yokohama F Marinos vs Shimizu S-Pulse – home win at 10/11.
Yokohama F Marinos’ welcoming back for prodigal son Shunsuke Nakamura into their squad after many years of absence appears to have inspired the giants into recreating their brilliant past. They’ve played two home games this season in the J-League and won both emphatically, scoring seven goals and conceding zero goals despite hosting a very good Kawaski Frontale side. Yokohama F Marinos stand a good chance of making a legitimate title challenge for the first time in a long time due to the return of Nakamura to bolster their good squad and it’s already paying huge dividends so I’m going with them on this one today.
Visitors Shimizu S-Pulse have made an impressive start to their J-League campaign but are punching above their weight. I immensely respect their two draws on the road against two good sides – Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Kawasaki Frontale respectively – so they won’t lie down for Yokohama here. However, Shimizu lost their last visit to Yokohama and look likely to do so again against a drive Yokohama side with a lot of ability. Shimizu have been successful on the road by being astute defensively rather than in attack but today they face an extremely potent Yokohama side so I doubt they’ll be leaving with the points today.
We should see a close game today but the hosts are playing so well currently and are scoring a lot of goals so I think they’re worth taking to win this game at what looks to be good odds to me.
Verdict: Yokohama F Marinos to win at 10/11.
Montedio Yamagata vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima – away win at evens.
Montedio Yamagata have had a poor start to their J-League campaign with two defeats and two draws. Their main problem has been scoring goals, something they’ve done just twice in four games. They tend to take the majority of their points at home but don’t look likely to do so today with consistently goal-shy displays and a record which has seen them not only lose three out of their last four games against Hiroshima but also lost both of their previous games against Hiroshima in the J-League at either ground so should struggle today.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima had a sluggish start to their campaign but are finally back to playing good football again. They’ve won both away games this season against Shonan Bellmare and Vissel Kobe respectively so bring some good momentum into this game, particularly after their midweek win at home to Australia’s Adelaide United in the Asian Champions League so Hiroshima are well-placed to win this one today. As I’ve mentioned previously, Hiroshima have a good record against Yamagata both in general and at this ground so should be able to further that record today with momentum and potency favouring them today.
As it’s still early in the season, I’m not expecting a dominant away win but the hosts do look incapable of defending and scoring whereas the visitors are finally looking good again so the away win looks good value today.
Verdict: Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win at evens.
Polonia Warsaw vs Wisla Krakow – away win at 10/11.
Bakero’s Polonia Warsaw aren’t playing well at the moment. They were after coming back from the winter break but a combination of bad luck and poor finishing leaves the side bereft of confidence and cannon fodder for other opponents. Polonia Warsaw are worthy of a higher league placing but they’re not going to get it if they’re not scoring goals. A win at home last match against Arka Gdynia will have aided their cause but frankly they shouldn’t have lost at Zaglebie Lubin the game before that and yet still did so Polonia aren’t playing as well as they should be just yet. Bakero has already stated his concern ahead of this game, particularly in reference to the state of Polonia’s own pitch and it’s no surprise he’s concerned as it’s a mess and he likes his sides to play proper football so Polonia could struggle today, particularly having failed to beat Wisla Krakow for eight years now, losing their last six home games in the Ekstraklasa against Wisla.
I’ve stayed away from Wisla Krakow for long enough now as they appear to be getting back to their best. Sacking Skorza and replacing him with Kasperczak appears to have done them a great deal of good and Wisla have now won two consecutive Ekstraklasa games whilst scoring six times. Wisla are the best away side in Poland currently with eight wins in eleven games and an average of two goals scored per away game provides an insight as to why that is. Wisla are a very dangerous side on their day and with their potency being through the roof currently, it’s hard to consider going against them at such favourable odds.
Verdict: Wisla Krakow to win at 10/11.
Zaglebie Lubin vs Lechia Gdansk – home win at 10/11.
I’m basing this pick on nothing but recent form. Lechia are the better side here but have been leaking goals for fun lately so look a bit demoralised, particularly after losing against ten-men Legia Warsaw recently despite having the lead. Legia isn’t a bad side to lose to but the manner of the victory could have hurt Lechia. Zaglebie Lubin, by contrast, have won four consecutive games and I’ve no idea how! They’ve won two away games against Ruch Chorzow and GKS Belchatow, two sides that are a lot better than they are so my hat goes off to Zaglebie for this new lease of potency that they’ve been granted. They’re not a good side by any stretch of the imagination but their goal ratio and incredible momentum at the moment makes the home win look tempting at 10/11.
Verdict: Zaglebie Lubin to win at 10/11.
Lech Poznan vs Legia Warsaw – home win at evens.
Lech Poznan welcome back integral striker Robert Lewandowski for this massive game and just in the nick of time too! If Lech are serious about winning the Ekstraklasa then they need to keep up their great performances of late and beat the big boys i.e. Legia Warsaw and Wisla Krakow, both of which Lech have yet to play this season. Lech have won three out of five games since returning from the winter break whilst remaining unbeaten throughout so they’re playing well currently. They dropped points at Belchatow but they’re a decent side and they dropped points at Odra last match but Lewandowski was out so it’s fair to say Lech are still very capable. They’ve scored nine times during those five games whilst conceding just twice so they’re playing very effective football currently. Lech have beaten Legia here for three out of their last four visits and have never been more strongly placed to do so again than they are today.
Legia Warsaw have had big issues lately due to both collective and individual defensive errors. They’ve leaked six goals in five Ekstraklasa games since returning from the winter break and have been embarassed at home by Odra Wodzislaw and away against Polonia Bytom in two consecutive games, losing both times. Legia were somewhat fortunate to win at Lechia Gdansk last match but will not see the same number of gifts today from an organised Lech Poznan side so look set to struggle. Legia blame their defenders for their problems although it’s worth noting that they’re not scoring many goals despite their epic game with Lechia last match so Legia have more issues than they let on. This has been a difficult campaign for them and it’s going to end in disappointment if they don’t win today, in my opinion, as Wisla will open up an unbreachable gap over them.
Legia aren’t performing to their full potential in attack or defence and could be caught out on the counter attack today by a strong and organised Lech Poznan as Legia need three points far more than Lech do as Lech are in a better position to challenge Wisla than they are. Lech’s potency versus Legia’s defensive ineptitude of late leaves me feeling that the home win is good value today.
Verdict: Lech Poznan to win at evens.
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Gorica – away win at 13/8.
Olimpija Ljubljana are in something of a tumultuous state of late with three defeats and three draws since returning from the winter break. They’re generally decent at home in that they don’t concede many goals but poor travellers Celje embarassed them 3-1 here in their last home game so Olimpija aren’t looking as assured as normal. They lost their last match against bitter rivals Interblock Ljubljana in a bad tempered affair in which they had three men dismissed – Bonfim, Roj, and Cvijanovic – so they’re not only demoralised ahead of this game but are also short on players too, particularly as Roj and Cvijanovic are important first team players.
Visitors Gorica have been scintillating lately with five wins in six Prva Liga games since their return from the winter break. The only side they haven’t beaten is giants Maribor with whom they played out a cracking 3-3 draw a couple of games ago. Gorica have notched up seventeen goals during those six games – an average of nearly three goals scored per game – and have won all three away games along the way despite facing tricky trips to Celje and Nafta Lendava. Indeed, confidence is so high at Gorica currently that they battered Interblock 5-0 away from home last match so Gorica are really flying lately and it’s their potency that is doing it for them.
Only Koper and Maribor have won more away games than Gorica have this season so backing the away win today for a side that averages scoring nearly two goals per away game against a poor side that is yet to win on their return from the winter break looks a good value bet at 13/8, particularly with the hosts missing two vital players.
Verdict: Gorica to win at 13/8.
Winterthur vs Biel-Bienne – home win at 5/6.
Winterthur have been strong at home this season with six wins, three draws, and just one defeat in ten games. They average scoring over two goals per home game and have been dominant at home since returning from the winter break, winning all three home games whilst scoring twelve times – an average of four goals per game. Winterthur managed an impressive win at Yverdon Sport last match and have now won three consecutive games which gives them strong momentum ahead of this match. Winterthur are scoring plenty of goals currently so you can tell confidence is high and they’ll no doubt look to further that record today.
Visitors Biel-Bienne have done quite well since returning from the winter break, hence their lofty league placing. However, the fact remains that they’re a poor away side, losing six times in ten away games. They simply don’t score enough goals away from home, which is their predominant issue. Even their resurgence following their return from the winter break can’t kick-start their away form with defeats at lowly Le Mont, an under-achieving Servette, and a draw at a poor Gossau side being their three away results following their return from the winter break. Biel-Bienne are a capable side so I’m sure it’s only a matter of time before they master their away form but for the time being, they look nothing but cannon fodder for a very potent Winterthur side and at good odds too!
Verdict: Winterthur to win at 5/6.
Accumulator fodder:
Sturm Graz, Rapid Vienna, Lierse SK, Lokomotiv Sofia, Cibalia Vinkovci, Dinamo Zagreb, Manchester City, Newcastle United, Trans Narva, Nomme Kalju, VFB Stuttgart, Internazionale, Urawa Red Diamonds, Twente Enschede, AZ Alkmaar, Ruch Chorzow, Pacos de Ferreira, Porto, Santa Clara, Vaslui, CFR Cluj, Slovan Bratislava, MSK Zilina, Koper, Maribor, Young Boys Bern, Istanbul BB, Shakhtar Donetsk, Aberystwyth Town.
Recommended bets:
Yokohama F Marinos, Sanfrecce Hiroshima, and Urawa Red Diamonds at 6/1.
Naftan Novopolotsk, Dinamo Zagreb, Pacos de Ferreira, and Winterthur at 8/1.
Levadia Tallinn, Anderlecht, Istanbul BB, and Nomme Kalju at 5/1.
Cibalia Vinkovci, VFB Stuttgart, Twente Enschede, and Wisla Krakow at 6/1.
Argentinos Juniors, Independiente, and Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota at 6/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Argentinos Juniors vs Chacarita Juniors (7) 1-0
San Lorenzo de Almagro vs Gimnasia De La Plata (4) 1-1
Newells Old Boys vs Tigre (7) 2-1
Independiente vs Arsenal de Sarandi (8) 1-0
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Ried vs LASK Linz (6) 2-1
Sturm Graz vs SV Kapfenberg (8) 3-1
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Karnten (9) 2-0
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Torpedo Zhodino vs BATE Borisov (7) 1-2
Naftan Novopolotsk vs Partizan Minsk (7) 2-0
Minsk vs Dnepr Mogilev (6) 1-1
Dinamo Brest vs Shakhtyor Soligorsk (5) 1-0
Belshina vs Dinamo Minsk (6) 0-1
Neman Grodno vs Vitebsk (7) 2-0
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Anderlecht vs Club Brugge (7) over 2.5 goals
Mechelen vs Lokeren (7) 2-1
Cercle Brugge vs Westerlo (5) 1-1
Charleroi vs Germinal Beerschot (4) 1-1
Belgian Tweede Klasse:
Lierse SK vs Turnhout (8)
OH Leuven vs Oostende (5)
Dender vs Tubize (6)
Tournai vs Beveren (4)
Red Star Waasland vs Eupen (5)
Antwerp vs Boussu Dour Borinage (6)
Liege vs Ronse (6)
Bulgarian A PFG:
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Sliven (9) -1.75 handicap
Chernomorets Burgas vs Levski Sofia (6) 1-2
Colombian Primera A:
America de Cali vs Millonarios Bogota (6) 2-1
Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin (8) 2-1
Independiente Medellin vs Cucuta Deportivo (7) 1-0
Croatian Prva Liga:
Cibalia Vinkovci vs Istra 1961 (8) 2-0
Varteks Varazdin vs Sibenik (6) 0-1
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Karlovac (7) over 2.5 goals
Slaven Koprivnica vs Croatia Sesvete (6) 2-0
Zadar vs Osijek (7) 1-1
Rijeka vs Dinamo Zagreb (8) 1-2
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc (7) 1-0
Slovacko vs Slovan Liberec (6) 1-0
Brno vs Mlada Boleslav (6) 1-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Espoli Cayambe vs Universidad Catolica (6) 1-0
El Nacional Quito vs Olmedo Riobamba (6) 2-1
English Premier League:
Manchester United vs Chelsea (6) 2-0
Arsenal vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (4) 1-1
Bolton Wanderers vs Aston Villa (5) 1-1
Portsmouth vs Blackburn Rovers (6) 0-1
Stoke City vs Hull City (7) 1-0
Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur (6) 1-2
Burnley vs Manchester City (7) 1-2
English Championship:
Bristol City vs Nottingham Forest (5)
Coventry City vs Derby County (6)
Doncaster Rovers vs Plymouth Argyle (7)
Ipswich Town vs Reading (6)
Middlesbrough vs Crystal Palace (5)
Peterborough United vs Newcastle United (8)
Preston North End vs Watford (8)
Queens Park Rangers vs Sheffield Wednesday (4)
Sheffield United vs Barnsley (6)
Cardiff City vs Swansea City (6) at least one red card in this game
English League One:
Leeds United vs Swindon Town (5)
Leyton Orient vs Hartlepool United (5)
Milton Keynes Dons vs Charlton Athletic (6)
Oldham Athletic vs Gillingham (7)
Southend United vs Yeovil Town (5)
Stockport County vs Walsall (6)
Wycombe Wanderers vs Huddersfield Town (6)
English League Two:
Bournemouth vs Bradford City (7)
Burton Albion vs Darlington (6) over 2.5 goals
Cheltenham Town vs Lincoln City (6)
Chesterfield vs Rochdale (4)
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Accrington Stanley (6)
Hereford United vs Barnet (6)
Macclesfield Town vs Aldershot Town (6)
Notts County vs Bury (5)
Rotherham United vs Port Vale (5)
Torquay United vs Shrewsbury Town (4)
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Maag Tammeka Tartu vs Lootus (7) under 2.5 goals
Nomme Kalju vs Flora Paide (9) 2-0
Kuressaare vs Sillamae Kalev (7) 1-2
Trans Narva vs Viljandi Tulevik (9) over 2.5 goals
Levadia Tallinn vs Flora Tallinn (8) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
French Ligue 1:
Saint-Etienne vs Le Mans (5) under 1.5 goals
Valenciennes vs LOSC Lille (6) 0-1
Grenoble Foot vs Lorient (5) 0-0
Stade Rennais vs Olympique Lyonnais (7) 1-0
Girondins de Bordeaux vs AS Nancy-Lorraine (7) 2-1
OGC Nice vs Sochaux (7) 1-0
Montpellier HSC vs AS Monaco (8) 2-0
German Bundesliga:
Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich (7) 1-0
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (6) 1-1
BV09 Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen (5) 2-2
SC Freiburg vs VFL Bochum (6) 1-0
VFB Stuttgart vs Borussia Moenchengladbach (8) 2-0
FC Nurnberg vs FSV Mainz 05 (5) 0-0
Koln vs Hertha HSC Berlin (6) 2-1
German Bundesliga 2:
Union Berlin vs Karlsruher SC (5)
Rot-Weiss Ahlen vs MSV Duisburg (7)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Kecskemeti TE vs Lombard Papa (6) 1-0
Paksi SE vs MTK Budapest (5) 1-1
Szombathelyi Haladas vs Ujpest (7) 1-1
Budapest Honved vs Gyori ETO FC (6) 1-2
Ferencvaros vs Kaposvari Rakoczi (6) 1-0
Vasas Budapest vs Diosgyori VTK (5) 0-0
Italian Serie A:
Internazionale vs Bologna (8) 2-0
Parma vs Fiorentina (6) 1-1
Genoa vs Livorno (7) over 2.5 goals
Cagliari vs AC Milan (6) 1-1
Lazio vs SSC Napoli (7) 0-0
Bari vs AS Roma (6) 1-1
Chiveo Verona vs Sampdoria (7) 1-1
Atalanta Bergamo vs Siena (8) 2-0
Catania vs Palermo (5) over 2.5 goals, at least two red cards in this game
Udinese vs Juventus (6) 1-1
Japanese J-League:
Cerezo Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga (7) 1-1
Yokohama F Marinos vs Shimizu S-Pulse (7) 2-1
Albirex Niigata vs Omiya Ardija (6) 1-0
Montedio Yamagata vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (7) 1-2
Nagoya Grampus vs Vissel Kobe (7) 2-1
Urawa Red Diamonds vs Shonan Bellmare (8) 2-0
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Tauras Taurage vs Atletas (7) 1-0
Mazeikiai vs Ekranas Panevezys (8) 0-2
Vetra Vilnius vs Kruoja Pakruojis (8) -1.75 handicap
Siauliai vs Banga Gargzdai (5) 1-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Cruz Azul vs Queretaro (7) 2-1
Monterrey vs Pumas UNAM (6) 1-1
Indios vs Pachuca (6) 0-1
Morelia vs Puebla (6) 2-1
San Luis vs Tigres UANL (7) 1-0
Atlas vs Atlante (4) 1-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
VVV Venlo vs Twente Enschede (8) 0-1
Vitesse Arnhem vs Groningen (6) 0-1
AZ Alkmaar vs FC Utrecht (8) under 2.5 goals
Roda JC Kerkrade vs RKC Waalwijk (7) 2-0
Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam (6) over 2.5 goals
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Piast Gliwice vs Korona Kielce (5) 1-1
Polonia Warsaw vs Wisla Krakow (7) 0-1
Zaglebie Lubin vs Lechia Gdansk (7) 2-1
Lech Poznan vs Legia Warsaw (6) under 2.5 goals
Ruch Chorzow vs Slask Wroclaw (7) 2-0
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Pacos de Ferreira vs Belenenses (8) 2-0
Olhanense vs Vitoria Setubal (6) 1-1
Academica de Coimbra vs Uniao de Leiria (4) 1-1
Porto vs Maritimo Funchal (8) 2-0
Portuguese Liga de Honra:
Fatima vs Portimonense (6)
Freamunde vs Estoril (5)
Penafiel vs Desportivo Chaves (6)
Desportivo Aves vs Varzim (7)
Gil Vicente vs Oliveirense (6)
Carregado vs Feirense (5)
Santa Clara vs Sporting Covilha (8)
Romanian Liga:
International vs Rapid Bucharest (6) 1-1
Universitatea Craiova vs Poli Timisoara (6) 0-0
Vaslui vs Unirea Alba Iulia (8) 2-0
CFR Cluj vs Gloria Bistrita (8) 1-0
Russian Premier League:
Amkar Perm vs Sibir Novosibirsk (7) 1-0
CSKA Moscow vs Zenit St.Petersburg (6) 0-0
Anzhi Makhachkala vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz (6) 2-1
Spartak Nalchik vs Rostov-na-Donu (6) 1-1
Scottish Premier League:
Motherwell vs Falkirk (7) 2-0
Rangers vs Hamilton Academicals (8) 2-0
St.Mirren vs Hearts (6) 1-1
Serbian Super Liga:
Cukaricki vs Jagodina (5) 1-1
Hajduk Kula vs Rad Belgrade (6) 0-0
Borac Cacak vs Metalac GM (6) 1-0
Mladi Radnik vs Smederevo (6) 1-1
OFK Belgrade vs Red Star Belgrade (5) 0-1
Vojvodina Novi Sad vs BSK Borca (8) 2-0
Javor Ivanjica vs Napredak (6) 1-0
Partizan Belgrade vs Spartak Subotica (8) over 2.5 goals
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Dukla Banska Bystrica vs Artmedia Petrzalka (7) over 2.5 goals
Slovan Bratislava vs Kosice (8) 2-0
Senica vs Dubnica (6) 1-1
DAC Dunajska Streda vs Tatran Presov (5) 1-2
MSK Zilina vs Spartak Trnava (8) over 2.5 goals
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Gorica (6) 1-2
Koper vs Drava (9) 2-0
Celje vs Nafta Lendava (6) 1-0
Domzale vs Interblock Ljubljana (7) 2-1
Maribor vs Rudar Velenje (8) 2-0
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Zaragoza vs Malaga (6) 2-2
Barcelona vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (7) over 3.5 goals, both sides to score, at least one red card in this game
Sevilla CF vs Tenerife (7) 1-0
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Huesca vs Cordoba (7)
Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Recreativo de Huelva (6)
Real Murcia vs Albacete (7)
Las Palmas vs Cartagena (6)
Elche vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (6)
Celta de Vigo vs Real Union Club de Irun (7) under 2.5 goals
Swiss Super League:
Aarau vs Young Boys Bern (9) over 2.5 goals
Luzern vs Neuchatel Xamax (7) 2-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Stade Nyonnais vs Gossau (6)
Wohlen vs Servette (5)
Winterthur vs Biel-Bienne (8)
Turkish Super Lig:
Istanbul BB vs Denizlispor (8) 1-0
Bursaspor vs Antalyaspor (7) 2-1
Ukrainian Premier League:
Zorya Lugansk vs Dynamo Kiev (6) 0-1
Vorskla Poltava vs Illichivets Mariupol (5) 0-0
Metalist Kharkiv vs Tavriya Simferopol (7) 2-1
Metalurg Donetsk vs Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih (7) 1-0
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk vs Zakarpattya Uzhhorod (7) under 2.5 goals
Obolon Kiev vs Shakhtar Donetsk (8) 1-2
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Rampla Juniors vs Club Nacional de Montevideo (6) 1-2
Racing Club Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting (6) 1-0
Danubio vs Fenix (7) 1-0
Welsh Premier League:
Bangor City vs Port Talbot Town (6) over 2.5 goals
Cefn Druids vs Aberystwyth Town (8) 1-2
Connah’s Quay Nomads vs Caersws (7) 2-0
Newtown vs Airbus UK (6) 1-0
Porthmadog vs Carmarthen Town (5) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!