Oldham Athletic vs Leeds United
FreeToday’s featured game is between sleeping giants Oldham Athletic and title favourites Leeds United. Oldham Athletic have been disappointing this season and currently occupy sixteenth place in League One. Leeds United are performing exactly as everyone expected them to this season and are top of League One, six points clear of Charlton Athletic.
Oldham Athletic are without a win in their last four games, losing three times and drawing once. The source of their problem is one that is easy to identify; scoring goals. Nobody in League One has scored less goals than Oldham Athletic have this season and it’s really starting to do them damage. They’ve scored a grand total of two goals in their last four games and both of those goals were in the same game!
Leeds United are looking as imposing as ever and have won their last four consecutive games in League One. No other side in this division can touch their remarkable away form of six wins in eight games. They’ve only been beaten once away from home and the fact that they average conceding just once every two games on the road shows the fundamental reasoning behind their continued success. Ironically, the side that has conceded the second fewest number of goals on the road this season is today’s opponents Oldham Athletic, although their record at home is considerably poorer.
Oldham Athletic are a good side when they turn up but those occasions have been few and far between this season. It’s hard for me to have concern for a bet against a side that doesn’t score goals, particularly when their opponents are amongst the top goalscorers in the division with nearly two goals scored per game on average. To top that off, Leeds United are simply a better side and have everything in their favour for this game.
Verdict: Leeds United to win at 5/6.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Charlton Athletic – away win at 5/4.
Hosts Brighton & Hove Albion have had their Gus Poyet honeymoon period ended somewhat prematurely and have now lost two games in a row. Unfortunately for them, there’s only so much that momentum and confidence can do for a side, particularly when it’s a poor side like Brighton. I can give you all the statistics in the world about this game but the one that really counts is the fact that no side in League One has lost more times at home than Brighton have this season with six defeats in nine home games, a record that simply isn’t good enough. Brighton tend to concede rather a lot at home without matching that record with goals scored themselves, thus leading to tough times.
Visitors Charlton Athletic are one of the best sides in the division, no questions asked. They’re currently second in League One to a very impressive Leeds United and would be closer to them had their away form fared better. Charlton’s away record is presentable at least with just two defeats in nine away games, winning three times and drawing four times. I’d normally be a tad more hesitant backing Charlton away from home because their away record isn’t the most convincing one I’ve ever seen. However, their actual ability and the fact that they’ve won two of their last three games makes me think that Charlton will have too much for a poor Brighton tonight.
Verdict: Charlton Athletic to win at 5/4.
Stockport County vs Swindon Town – away win at 5/4.
Stockport County have now lost six consecutive League One games and are in a dismal state of affairs. They’ve conceded sixteen goals and scored just two on that run, which means they average nearly three goals per game conceded and score once every three games. To say that their form is relegation form would be a massive understatement and it’s no surprise that they’re currently second from bottom in the League One table. It seems that their financial hardships have finally well and truly caught up with them and they look unable to get themselves out of this mess.
Visitors Swindon Town have surprised me this season with how well they’ve played, moreso because they’ve continued it rather than faltering after a little while. Swindon Town are seventh in the table and have rapidly started to prove themselves as a difficult side to play against. Swindon Town don’t score many goals but few sides have conceded less than they have in League One, which is the basis for their success of late. Swindon Town enter this game with a great deal of momentum as they’ve now won their last three games and will look to further that record against a dejected Stockport County side tonight.
Overall, this should be something of a no-brainer tonight for Swindon Town to win at Stockport County so this should prove to be a good bet.
Verdict: Swindon Town to win at 5/4.
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Aldershot Town – home win at 4/5.
Dagenham & Redbridge are amongst the best sides in the division as they’ve proven on countless occasions this season. They’re fourth in League Two and although their form of late has fluctuated somewhat, they remain a potent force with only two sides in their division having scored more goals than they have this season. Dagenham have already won six out of nine home games this season, tasting defeat just once in that time. Dagenham average over two goals scored per home game and will look to further that record tonight.
Visitors Aldershot Town are a funny side to play against but tend to play their best football at home, something they were particularly infamous for last season. Aldershot Town don’t concede many goals, a characteristic that will be sorely tested against a potent Dagenham & Redbridge. Aldershot struggle to score goals away from home, which I suspect will play a large part in their downfall tonight. Aldershot are unbeaten in four games so I expect them to give Dagenham a tough game rather than lying down and making it easy for their opponents. Nonetheless, quality should play a big part here and unfortunately Aldershot just don’t have enough to match Dagenham in that aspect, so a home win looks likely!
Verdict: Dagenham & Redbridge to win at 4/5.
Strasbourg vs Bastia – home win at 4/5.
Sleeping giants Strasbourg have shown signs in their last two games of awakening the beast by winning once and drawing once and now have the opportunity to further their run against bottom club Bastia. Strasbourg’s problem has been scoring goals but they should have more than enough chances to do so tonight against a Bastia side that have conceded in every away game they’ve played in this season.
Interestingly enough, only two sides in Ligue 2 have conceded less goals than Bastia have away from home this season, which is quite a remarkable record considering Bastia’s league placing. Nonetheless, misfortune can only account for part of the journey; the fact is that they don’t score enough goals and thus end up losing almost all of their away games 1-0. Bastia’s meager one goal scored away from home this season leaves them looking likely to succumb to defeat tonight if they concede against a Strasbourg side that are starting to gather momentum.
I really can’t quite believe these odds because Strasbourg are twice the side of Bastia in my opinion and really should show that tonight regardless of their slow start to Ligue 2 this year. My only concern is Bastia’s lack of goals conceded but Strasbourg really should manage to score against them tonight.
Verdict: Strasbourg to win at 4/5.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Austrian Liga 1:
Dornbirn vs Salzburg II (5) over 2.5 goals
Austria Vienna II vs Gratkorn (6) over 2.5 goals
English League One:
Brentford vs Colchester United (6)
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Charlton Athletic (7)
Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City (6)
Carlisle United vs Hartlepool United (6)
Huddersfield Town vs Tranmere Rovers (8) over 2.5 goals
Leyton Orient vs Gillingham (5)
Millwall vs Milton Keynes Dons (7)
Oldham Athletic vs Leeds United (8)
Southampton vs Wycombe Wanderers (7)
Southend United vs Norwich City (5)
Stockport County vs Swindon Town (7)
Yeovil Town vs Walsall (7)
English League Two:
Barnet vs Bournemouth (7)
Bradford City vs Rochdale (6)
Burton Albion vs Accrington Stanley (6)
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Aldershot Town (8)
Lincoln City vs Port Vale (7)
Morecambe vs Bury (6) draw no bet, over 2.5 goals
Northampton Town vs Hereford United (6)
Notts County vs Darlington (8)
Shrewsbury Town vs Rotherham United (6)
Torquay United vs Cheltenham Town (6)
English League Cup:
Portsmouth vs Aston Villa (6) 1-1
Manchester United vs Totteham Hotspur (4) 1-1
French Ligue 2:
AC Ajaccio vs Laval (8)
Angers SCO vs Nimes (5)
Brest vs Istres (7)
Chateauroux vs Guingamp (5) draw no bet
Clermont Foot vs Dijon FCO (8)
Vannes OC vs Tours (6)
Arles vs Metz (6)
Sedan-Ardennes vs Nantes (5)
Strasbourg vs Bastia (7)
Portuguese Liga de Honra:
Fatima vs Feirense (6)
Romanian Liga:
Otelul Galati vs Astra Ploiesti (6) 2-1
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Cerro vs River Plate Montevideo (5) 1-1
Welsh Premier League:
Bala Town vs Welshpool Town (6) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!