Olympique Lyonnais vs Real Madrid
FreeI don’t think I’ve ever seen a UK card so bereft of value! There’s only a couple of games that I’ll dabble in tonight so I’d strongly recommend staying in continental competitions or keeping punts low.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League encounter at Stade Gerland between Olympique Lyonnais and Real Madrid. Hosts Olympique Lyonnais are one of the most decorated French sides in recent times and have been a constant force in European football throughout although they tend to struggle against the bigger sides. Visitors Real Madrid have won this competition more times than any other club so they know how important it is and although they’ve struggled domestically to make ends meet, they’re still a very capable side.
Olympique Lyonnais have disappointed me this season. They’ve made some superb acquisitions in summer and yet have failed to really impress. They’ve conceded more than half of Ligue 1 on their own turf – an average of over a goal per game – and have only scored nineteen goals in twelve games, which isn’t particularly impressive for a side that supposedly scores more than they concede. As a result, Lyon have drawn and lost more games than they should have as they labour past sides that they’re better than and fail to win convincingly each time. I think there’s more issues at the club than are currently visible purely because they’ve got the individual ability to overcome the majority of their opponents but they could be exposed today against a bigger and better side. Have Lyon convinced in Europe this year? Hm, aside from their 2-1 win at a poor Liverpool side, I’ve not been convinced. Debreceni VSC aren’t in the same class grouping as Lyon and Fiorentina proved a strong test for the French side so it should be interest to see how they square up to one of Europe’s biggest clubs.
Visitors Real Madrid have yet to convince me this season too. They’re beating sides but not convincingly. I’d say that they’ve been worse than Lyon in Europe this year but they’ve also had a harder group, in their defence. They struggled against Olympique de Marseille and yet still hammered three goals past Lyon’s bitter rivals in the home and away games. Madrid’s problem was dealing with an ageing AC Milan side that beat them once and should have beat them twice with Madrid fortuante to leave Milan with a point. However, Madrid have matured as the season has progressed and their side now looks more like a side rather than just talented individuals, in my opinion. Madrid have scored eleven goals in their last four Primera Liga games so confidence and momentum is very high at the moment, particularly with two of those games being 3-0 away wins, one of which was a particularly tough trip to the Riazor to take on bogey side Deportivo La Coruna. I still don’t think Madrid are ready to win this tournament but I do think that they’re too good for Lyon and I expect it to show tonight.
Both sides will need their big players playing their best football tonight. Lyon’s Lisandro Lopez has been in good form this season but few others have been as consistent as he has in this team so Lyon are looking a little on edge here. Madrid have a wealthy of attacking ability in their squad and most importantly they have the ever-potent Cristiano Ronaldo, the world’s best player, a player who can win any game he wishes them to win. I think we’re going to see a real gulf in class as a result of this mismatch and Madrid really should outscore hosts Lyon tonight with their ability.
Verdict: Real Madrid to win at 11/10.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
AC Milan vs Manchester United – away win at 17/10.
Hosts AC Milan have been a bogey side for Manchester United over the past few years but I sense a change in the winds. AC Milan’s squad is older, more experienced, but slower. Their passing can still be immense on their day but the somewhat wayward and inconsistent performances of midfield maestros Andrea Pirlo and Rino Gattuso (when playing) have left AC Milan looking a tad weak. The loss of Kaka in summer was a massive blow for them and although prodigy Pato has really come of age and will be a potent threat, AC Milan still don’t look convincing. They look weak at the back, particularly against pace, and seem unable to keep a clean sheet, which will be a big problem tonight as they’re at home. Although there’s no doubting the experience and class of hosts AC Milan, I can’t see them doing the business against Manchester United tonight because they’re simply not playing well.
Visitors Manchester United are typically hitting form right on time. A draw at Aston Villa mid-week may not look much but when consider that United dominated the game despite having 10 men for the majority of the game, you have to begin to notice that United are pushing all the right buttons. Wayne Rooney is on fire at the moment and I think a leaky AC Milan defence are going to have an absolute nightmare against his strength and pace. The Italian sides used to use his inexperience and temperament against him in games like this but he’s matured as a player and is finally beginning to look the finished article. Nani has been in inspired form and United welcome back Rio Ferdinand for this game, who will add extra experience at the back when it’s needed the most. United will be missing Vidic, Anderson, and Giggs for this trip. I love Vidic but the fact that he’s not been playing lately tells me that he won’t be missed too much with Brown and Evans playing well in the middle when given their respective opportunities. Giggs hasn’t been playing too well of late and although Anderson hasn’t been playing, I think United will miss him the most because they absolutely must field a central midfield that are combative and energetic or AC will simply pass their way around them. Fergie sometimes makes the mistake of playing Carrick and Scholes in the middle and this can be absolute suicide against a great passing side like Milan.
Although I’d wait until the line-ups are named, I do favour United here, and not because I’m biased either! United have a very good record against Italian sides in this competition in recent years – it’s time they added AC Milan to the list that already has Internazionale and AS Roma (various times!) on it. If United use their pace against AC’s unconvincing back line and put in a strong defensive display then I’d expect an away win here. If United play Scholes and Carrick in the middle then I’d probably go for the draw or even a narrow home win.
Verdict: Manchester United to win at 17/10.
Libertad Asuncion vs Blooming Santa Cruz – home win with -1.75 handicap at 9/10.
This bet should really speak for itself! I’m surprised the bookies have given what I’d call good value odds for a game like this but I’ll simply chalk this one down to their “early odds” being a tad on the exploratory side.
Libertad Asuncion have already claimed a highly-impressive and morale-boosting 2-0 win at Argentinian newcomers Lanus in their opening Copa Libertadores game. I didn’t expect them to do it and fair play to them for doing it so convincingly! Additionally, Libertad travelled to Tacuary just two days later and won 4-0, which impressed me even more. Libertad’s application and potency amazes me so I offer them as much praise as I can for that. They’re an experienced Copa Libertadores side so they know they must win all their home games, starting tonight. They’re on home territory with tremendous momentum and potency in their favour at the moment so it’s hard for me to doubt them tonight.
Visitors Blooming Santa Cruz hail from Bolivia, the worst footballing nation on the continent of South America. Bolivian teams have one advantage over other nations and that is their high altitude home games (although Blooming don’t even have that!). In away games, they tend to get beaten – heavily. In fact, let’s take a look at how fellow Bolivian sides have faired in this competition over the past few years:
Cruzeiro 7 Real Potosi 0 – 2010
Boyaca Chico 2 Aurora Cochabamba 1 – 2009
Deportivo Quito 3 Universitario de Sucre 1 – 2009
Gremio 3 Aurora Cochabamba 0 – 2009
Cruzeiro 2 Universitario de Sucre 0 – 2009
Universidad de Chile 3 Aurora Cochabamba 0 – 2009
Estudiantes De La Plata 1 Universitario de Sucre 0 – 2009
Palmeiras 5 Real Potosi 1 – 2009
Santos 7 San Jose 0 – 2008
San Lorenzo de Almagro 1 Real Potosi 0 – 2008
Cucuta Deportivo 0 Real Potosi 0 – 2008
Caracas 2 Real Potosi 1 – 2008
Guadalajara 2 San Jose 0 – 2008
Cruzeiro 3 Real Potosi 0 – 2008
Atlas 2 La Paz 0 – 2008
Summarised, over the past two years, Bolivian sides have conceded forty-one goals in fifteen games, which is an average of nearly three goals scored against them per away game. The only time a Bolivian side has avoided defeat on the road in the Copa Libertadores in the last two years was a heroic performance from Real Potosi in Colombia where they held Cucuta Deportivo to a 0-0 draw. That’s right – the Bolivians got a result because they kept the opponent out, not because they scored themselves! Bolivian sides have lost by two goals or more in ten of their fifteen away games and it’s frankly a given in my book that Bolivian sides will lose away games in this competition.
It doesn’t help poor Blooming that they’re not even playing domestic football at the moment to gain some match practice – the Bolivian league isn’t running at the moment! Blooming have already lost their opening Copa Libertadores game at home to Peru’s Universitario Lima. Universitario are a presentable side with some good players but they’re not good enough to win away from home in this competition unless they’re playing poor opponents, which is exactly what happened. Blooming have spirit but they have nothing else, which I feel sympathise with them for but this is a ruthless game after all!
Overall, there’s a real class difference tonight and I’d be astounded if it didn’t show. I think I’ve been conservative by only backing the hosts at -1.75 as they’re capable of beating the -2.75 and -3.75 handicap in this game although I’ll leave the decision-making up to yourselves. The only reason I’ve held back is because Libertad aren’t as good as their recent results convey and that can often backfire against easier opponents. Either way, I cannot see a result other than a home win here tonight so climb aboard, guys!
Verdict: Libertad Asuncion to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at 9/10.
Peterborough United vs Ipswich Town – away win at 13/10.
Peterborough United are playing like a relegated side and I honestly believe they already are. They’ve got a couple of good players but they’re a League One side in essence – only Darren Ferguson gelled them into anything more and now he’s gone, they look considerably ordinary. Peterborough have won once in their last nine games, losing seven games and drawing once. They’ve scored a meager one goal in their last five games and have lost the four games that they failed to score in too! Ultimately, they concede too many goals and don’t score enough goals – that’s a recipe for disaster against any opponent and I can’t see how that would differentiate tonight.
Visitors Ipswich Town impress me but not enough on the road in all honesty. They’ve only won twice away from home in the Championship all season so do approach this bet with caution. However, what cannot be denied is that they’re playing good football now and are starting to gain better results from it. They won their last away game last match at Queens Park Rangers, which was impressive despite a lack of form from the hosts entering that game. They make sides work hard to take anything of them and although Ipswich don’t score as many as they could or should, they do tend to pop up with goals when required. Ipswich carry good momentum into this game and they’re taking on demoralised and goal-shy hosts so you have to feel that there’s potentially value in the away win, particularly as Ipswich are capable of being much higher in the Championship table.
Verdict: Ipswich Town to win at 13/10.
Recommended bets:
Everton, Manchester United, and Libertad Asuncion -1.75 at 8/1.
Port Talbot Town, Real Madrid, Colo Colo, and Libertad Asuncion -1.75 at 6/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Champions League:
Olympique Lyonnais vs Real Madrid (7) over 2.5 goals
AC Milan vs Manchester United (6) 1-2
UEFA Europa League:
Everton vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (9) 2-0
Copa Libertadores:
Colo Colo vs Deportivo Italia (8) 2-0
Libertad Asuncion vs Blooming Santa Cruz (9) -1.75 handicap
English Premier League:
Stoke City vs Manchester City (6) 1-1
English Championship:
Blackpool vs Middlesbrough (6)
Bristol City vs Leicester City (5)
Cardiff City vs West Bromwich Albion (6) over 2.5 goals
Derby County vs Preston North End (5)
Nottingham Forest vs Sheffield United (4)
Peterborough United vs Ipswich Town (6)
Plymouth Argyle vs Swansea City (6)
Scunthorpe United vs Barnsley (6)
Sheffield Wednesday vs Doncaster Rovers (6)
Queens Park Rangers vs Watford (5)
English League One:
Carlisle United vs Huddersfield Town (5)
Yeovil Town vs Colchester United (5)
Leeds United vs Walsall (6)
English League Two:
Hereford United vs Aldershot Town (7)
Lincoln City vs Accrington Stanley (5)
Morecambe vs Burton Albion (6)
Singporean S-League:
Young Lions vs Geylang United (6) 1-1
Albirex Niigata vs Tampines Rovers (5) 2-1
Welsh Premier League:
Neath Athletic vs Aberystwyth Town (4) 0-1
Port Talbot Town vs Newi Cefn Druids (9) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!