Osasuna vs Athletic Club de Bilbao
FreeApologies for yesterday, guys – it appears we were fucked over by lady luck via late goals more often than not although it’d take something more powerful than luck to give Vasas three goals in six minutes yesterday despite trailing 2-0 at the time…
Anyway, today’s featured game is the Primera Liga clash between Osasuna and Athletic Club de Bilbao. This game is a derby in the Basque country so it’s naturally a very feisty affair. It should have additional spice tonight with both sides needing the points so I’d have to recommend watching this one tonight.
Osasuna are always strong in Pamplona – that’s why Bilbao haven’t won here for some time and that’s why they’ve only lost four times at home this season in sixteen games despite battling relegation for the vast majority of the season. Osasuna’s strength tends to be in defence although they do miss suspended Monreal for this game, which is a big blow for them as he’s a key part of their defence at left-back. Nonetheless, the fact that only Barcelona, Valencia CF, and Real Mallorca have conceded less goals at home than Osasuna indicates how solid they are and that’s where their success will lie if they win tonight. Osasuna have struggled to score goals this season but star striker Walter Pandiani returns tonight and he’s their driving force in attack so don’t be surprised if he scores. Osasuna are short on players for this game in some key positions with Juanfran, Sergio, Nekounam, and Monreal all missing this game so they’ll have to take whatever chances they have to stand any chance of taking something from this game. That said, they’ve done well at home lately with two wins and one draw from their last three games, scoring five times along the way, so they do bring some good momentum into this game. Osasuna are short of attacking options from open play but must surely look to utilise the aerial strength of Walter Pandiani so will have to attack down the flanks. They’re short on attacking options there but no natural right-back playing for Bilbao could be exposed so I expect Osasuna to attack a lot down the left and look to get Pandiani ahead of Amorebieta in the air, which should be a very physical match-up.
Athletic Bilbao have a bigger squad than Osasuna and their league placing so far this season shows that well. They’ve looked potent and composed this year, something you don’t often associate with Los Leones. Bilbao won 2-0 at home to Osasuna earlier this season thanks to a very quick start which Osasuna were unable to recover from. I expect a more tactical and shrewd approach from both sides to this game so I don’t think we’ll see many early goals barring a real samba approach, which is always possible. Bilbao, much like Osasuna, will look to take the ball down the flanks a lot. They’re used to it for feeding the giant Llorente in attack but moreso now that Monreal misses this game through suspension so Bilbao have to attack down their right. Osasuna’s centre-backs are good in the air so he’ll need plenty of support from Toquero (or whoever starts) but so long as he gets it then they should be successful today. Athletic will look to dominate the middle of the park and keep the ball, hence three central midfielders and they should be successful too as Osasuna aren’t the same without Nekounam although old-hand Punal will be vital if the Pamplona-based hosts are able to take anything from this game tonight. Bilbao were disappointing last match in front of goal against Real Zaragoza. It’s rare to see them fail in that area and I don’t expect to see it repeated tonight. In fact, it cannot if Bilbao have any intention of winning this derby as Osasuna are not a side to give random chances away in front of goal.
Interestingly enough, the last time these sides met back in December at San Mamés, Osasuna left-back Monreal was injured and didn’t play. In all of the games that he didn’t feature in at that point, Osasuna failed to win any of them. They’re not a one-man team at all but he’s a key part of their defence so they’ll miss him tonight.
The two squads for the game are as follows:
Athletic Club: Iraizoz, Toquero, Koi, Ustaritz, Amorebieta, David López, Llorente, Yeste, Gabilondo, San José, Armando, Susaeta, Orbaiz, Gurpegi, Castillo, Javi Martínez, Iturraspe, Muniain and De Marcos.
Osasuna: Ricardo, Roberto, Azpilicueta, Roversio, Josetxo, Oier, Sergio, Echaide, Masoud, Puñal, Juanfran, Camuñas, Calleja, Vadócz, Rúper, Pandiani, Galán and Aranda.
I expect Bilbao to field a 4-5-1 of sorts with Iraizoz in goal, Koikili and Iturraspe at full-back, Amorebieta and San José in the centre, Orbaiz, Gurpegi and Martinez in a central midfield three with Gabilondo on one flank, Toquero on the other (but playing the supporting striker at the same time depending on whether Bilbao are attacking or defending) and Llorente up front. Irurraspe is a holding midfielder by nature but may have to revert to right-back as Andoni Iraola is suspended and Bilbao don’t have a natural replacement with Zubiaurre on the long-term injury list. Alternatively, Caparros may put left-back Xabier Castillo there or playing Ustaritz in defence too and put either him at centre-back and San José at right-back or vice versa. Toquero is a doubt for this game but should start. If he doesnt, expect Susaeta to start on the wing in his stead with a more traditional 4-5-1 in the offering.
I expect Osasuna to field a traditional 4-4-2 with Ricardo in goal, Oier replacing Monreal at left-back, the talented Azpilicueta at right-back, Flano and Josetxo in central defence, Punal as the holding midfielder, Masoud as playmaker, no idea whatsoever who he’ll play on the flanks, should be Camunas supporting Pandiani in attack. Juanfran is injured for this game, which is a massive blow for Osasuna as he’s their main threat from the flanks. Midfield engine Nekounam is also injured, as is the important centre-back Sergio, so Osasuna aren’t looking their best at the moment squad-wise, particularly on the wings. Osasuna may bring Azpilicueta forward onto the right-wing or may drop the likes of Dady to the wing – I’m really not sure.
This derby does tend to mean more to Osasuna than Athletic because it’s not Athletic’s traditional derby, which should be evident next season if Real Sociedad achieve promotion – that’s where Bilbao’s real derby lies. However, this is the Basque country so all derbies are important and passionate affairs. Osasuna need three points to stave off the threatof relegation and Bilbao need three points to push for a European place for a second successive year so we should see a good game tonight. Bilbao have developed a real maturity to their football this season and are frankly a better side than the ever-unpopular Osasuna. With the Champions League still a goal of Athletic’s this year, they’ll go for the win today and they look capable of doing so against a rather under-strength Osasuna side at very generous odds.
Verdict: Athletic Club de Bilbao to win at 15/8.
Side bets: Look for a lot of cards in this game – first yellow card to be within the first twenty-one minutes at 4/5 is a good bet. I can’t find odds currently but check on either Gurpegi, Orbaiz, or Punal to be dismissed – they’re all nutcase central midfielders and this game is their lifeblood. Just anyone to be sent off at 13/10 is also a good bet! Osasuna are short of goalscoring options from open play so they may rely on set pieces so Miguel Flano to score anytime at 33/1 looks good value. Pandiani will almost certainly find a goal somewhere in this game so he should be on your list as he’s also lethal from set pieces. Llorente to score anytime goes without saying for similar reasons. It may also be worth your time to check on Martinez or Orbaiz to score or get booked at any time as former Osasuna players lining up against their old club. Don’t forget the likelihood of Amorebieta getting booked too – he’s just a psycho centre-back, although he’s pretty good at it too! All of the last seven games between these two sides have contained two goals or more so expect goals in this game too.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Montana vs Lokomotiv Mezdra – beware!
This game is allegedly a fixed away win. Most bookies have pulled it but if you can find it then I’d try low stakes on the away win ’cause Bulgaria is notorious for its fixed games.
Bohemians 1905 vs Banik Ostrava – away win at 11/10.
Bohemians 1905 don’t lose games easily as their league placing may lead you to believe. They’ve only lost once in their last six games and that was away to Slavia Prague and that run included games against Mlada Boleslav, Teplice, and in-form Slovacko so they’ve gathered some good momentum of late. They’ve started to score goals lately and are conceding a lot less so they’re a dangerous side to go against at the moment.
Visitors Banik Ostrava are one of the more capable Gambrinus Liga sides at the moment in both defence and attack. They’re currently three points behind giants Sparta Prague in the table but with a game in hand so a win today takes them level on points. Banik have the momentum to do it too with five consecutive wins under their belt as they enter this game. Banik have got so many positives from this run that it’s unreal as they’ve shown great potency (something that they’ve rarely shown in the past), confidence (coming from behind), and defensive strength (three consecutive clean sheets on the road) to name a few. Banik have won their last three away games whilst playing some good sides and have notched up five goals along the way so I’m feeling a lot of confidence in the Ostrava camp at the moment. Barring Banik bottling this game today, I expect them to do a lot of damage and ultimately claim a fourth consecutive away win.
Incidentally, since being promoted back into the Gambrinus Liga for the 2007-08 season, Bohemians 1905 have lost all three encounters with Banik Ostrava convincingly, twice on the road and once at home. Bohemians 1905 find it hard enough to score against Banik Ostrava, let alone take points off them.
Bohemians 1905 don’t score or concede many at home whatsoever and Banik Ostrava don’t score or concede many eitehr so I expect a low-scoring game between these two sides with the first goal being absolutely pivotal for this game. However, the momentum burst and superior ability of Banik Ostrava has convinced me to back them to win this one today at generous odds, particularly as both sides need to win this one and Banik should thus have enough chances to punish a Bohemians 1905 that will have to push up as the game develops.
Verdict: Banik Ostrava to win at 11/10.
Crystal Palace vs West Bromwich Albion – away win at 13/8.
We had a lot of joy last week in this position when Plymouth Argyle hosted Newcastle United in very similar circumstances and I’m going for the same approach yet again. Palace need the points but are they really good enough to outscore WBA? That’s effectively what it comes down to as WBA always score goals. The odds on the away win for the superior side are far too long even though the points mean nothing to WBA and everything to Palace – there’s still a massive gulf in class between the two. Palace’s strength this season has been not losing games but that won’t help them here – they need to win. A win gurantees them Championship football next season but beating one of the best sides in the division is another matter entirely. Di Matteo will not take an under-strength squad to London for this game – his sides are professional and are fighting for their place in the team for next season so they’ll be up for this. I expect a fast-paced, open game with plenty of goals but ultimately there’s massive value in the away win at the moment as I expect the odds to be down to 5/6 at least before the game starts tonight.
Verdict: West Bromwich Albion to win at 13/8.
TPS Turku vs FC Honka Espoo – away win at 6/4.
TPS Turku opened their Veikkausliiga campaign this season with a somewhat surprising and inconclusive goalless draw with Haka Valeakoski. It rammed home the fact that their departures in summer were hefty and that even the signing of experienced striker Jonatan Johansson won’t help them fight for the title this year. TPS lost their last home game against HJK in the Liiga Cup. A meaningless competition, perhaps, but the point that was enforced there was that TPS are no longer to be considered as part of Finland’s elite because the likes of HJK and Honka can beat them rather easily. TPS lost at Honka in their first Liiga Cup game this season and can’t be considered good enough to challenge them anymore. TPS can at best draw this game, in my opinion, and silently they may even aim for this to preserve their image of being a good side for a little longer. Either way, I expect them to struggle today and Honka should be able to capitalise on that.
Honka’s young side have now matured a further year and an emphatic 3-1 opening day Veikkausliiga win at home to a tricky MyPa Anjalankoski side showed that. Honka won the Liiga cup pre-season in a tad fortunate fashion but still won it, thus proving that they have the ability. Honka’s only problem is goalscoring. They struggled without star striker Vuorinen when he was out but generally when he plays, they win, so it may be worth checking the line-ups before betting on this game today. Honka have impressed me a lot with their more composed and efficient displays this season, particularly as they’re already a potent side to boot so they’re looking the real deal this year. A lot of people expect Honka to usurp HJK in the Veikkausliiga this year and as much as I’d like to see it happen, I just can’t accept it occurring – I still think HJK have too much experience. However, Honka should be in the top two whatever happens and I expect their ability and composure to not only show this season but also in this game.
I expect a low-scoring game between two good sides but Honka are the better of these two sides nowadays and TPS will almost certainly play for the draw so it’s a matter of whether Honka can break TPS down. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this game go under 2.5 goals or perhaps even under 1.5 goals but so long as Vuorinen starts then Honka can make the odds of 6/4 for them to win look very tasty indeed.
Verdict: FC Honka Espoo to win at 6/4.
Molde FK vs Tromso – home win at 10/11.
I think that the bookies have gone too far with this one. Molde have had a bad start to their campaign but they’re still a damn good side. They’ve won two out of their three home games already and average scoring over two goals per game at home so underestimate the hosts. The only side to win here this season other than Molde was reigning champions Rosenborg so it takes a lot to beat Molde here, as was proven last season and should be proven again this season. Molde have looked weak in defence with six goals conceded in three games but you have to admire Molde’s spirit as they’ve won two of their three games 3-2 in difficult times against good sides so their confidence at home is strong and they’ve gained good momentum from it. The draw at Odd Grenland on artificial turf last match was another good result so we may well finally see Molde’s season start tonight although to do so they’ll have to beat a side that they’ve not beaten at home for three years.
Visitors Tromso have had a great start to their campaign, which is partially down to tenacity and partially down to luck. They’re not good travellers despite being unbeaten on the road this season but two fortunate displays at Viking and Stabaek in which the hosts dominated both games still resulted in Tromso avoiding defeat. It’s only a matter of time before their stubborn resolve is shattered and I think tonight will be that night. Tromso are strong defensively, which is the predominant reason behind their success as they don’t score many goals, but they have conceded in their last two games consecutively so are looking a little more susceptible at the back currently. Only a late goal gave the Gutan a win at home to a plucky Sandefjord last match and as much as I’d love to see Tromso do well this season, the fact is that they’re going to struggle to do anything of consequence due to a lack of quality in the squad. They’re a strong-minded side and are hard to break down but Molde score a lot of goals at home and Tromso shouldn’t be able to match them tonight.
Whilst Molde are at better odds than 8/11 to win this game, they remain good value in my opinion. They’re a better side than Tromso and are starting to finally play well. They concede a lot at home but Tromso don’t score many so shouldn’t be able to match their potent display tonight so the home win looks good value to me.
Verdict: Molde FK to win at 10/11.
Accumulator fodder:
HJK Helsinki, KooTeePee Kotka, Dundalk, Shamrock Rovers, Legia Warsaw, Vitoria Guimaraes, Malmo, Norrkoping.
Recommended bets:
HJK Helsinki, FC Honka Espoo, and KooTeePee Kotka at 6/1.
Molde FK, Norrkoping, and Banik Ostrava at 7/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Bulgarian A PFG:
Montana vs Lokomotiv Mezdra (7) 0-1
Minior Pernik vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv (6) 1-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Bohemians 1905 vs Banik Ostrava (7) 0-1
Danish Superligaen:
Randers vs Midtylland (6) 1-0
English Championship:
Crystal Palace vs West Bromwich Albion (7) under 2.5 goals
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
TPS Turku vs FC Honka Espoo (7) 1-2
HJK Helsinki vs Haka Valkeakoski (8) under 2.5 goals
Finnish Ykkonen:
KooTeePee Kotka vs Espoo (7) under 2.5 goals
French Ligue 2:
Le Havre vs Stade Malherbe de Caen (7) under 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga 2:
Energie Cottbus vs Union Berlin (6)
Irish Premier League:
Dundalk vs Bray Wanderers (8) 1-0
Galway United vs St.Patrick’s Athletic (6) 1-2
Sporting Fingal vs Bohemians (5) 1-0
UCD vs Drogheda United (4) 1-1
Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers (7) 2-0
Italian Serie B:
Triestina vs Modena (5)
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Molde FK vs Tromso (7) under 2.5 goals
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Korona Kielce vs Legia Warsaw (8) 0-2
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Belenenses (8) 2-0
Romanian Liga:
International vs Vaslui (5) 0-1
Russian Premier League:
Krylya Sovetov Samara vs Amkar Perm (7) 0-0
Singaporean S-League:
Woodlands Wellington vs Albirex Niigata (5) 1-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Osasuna vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (6) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Mjallby Solvesborg vs Helsingborgs (7) 1-1
Malmo vs Djurgardens (8) 2-1
Swedish Superettan:
Landskrona BoIS vs Syrianska Sodertalje (6) over 2.5 goals
Orgryte vs Ljungskile (7) under 2.5 goals
Norrkoping vs Brage (8)
Swiss Challenge League:
Lugano vs Winterthur (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Eskisehirspor vs Trabzonspor (6) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!