Otelul Galati vs Pandurii Targu Jiu
FreeBefore today’s previewed game, I’d like to reveal a dedication made to me last night by lovable punter Daniel Tatar (tatar_dp@yahoo.co.uk) which was eloquently phrased as follows:
“fuck you man! you are the worst tipster in the world! fuck you fuck you! you gave the worst tips in the world!”
Can we have a big “aww” for Daniel please? He’s taken the trouble to email that to me; I think your sympathy is the least he deserves! He’s been visiting the site for over three months now so it’s taken him a while to come up with that so a round of applause wouldn’t go amiss either, guys.
Anyway, today’s featured game is the Romanian Liga game between Otelul Galati and Pandurii Targu Jiu. Both of these sides are atypical “home” sides in the Romanian Liga so you can guess what kind of droll game we should be expecting from these two sides today.
However, instead of avoiding this game, I’ve decided to take the plunge and plump for a home win. Why? Well, Otelul Galati were impressively composed and in control of the game in their away win against newly-promoted Sportul Studentesc in their opening day of the season and barely showed any signs of being rusty at all, easing to a 1-0 win as if they’d never even had a break. Otelul are one of the harder sides in the division to beat even if they’re not one of the top sides because of their ability to keep the ball and defend intelligently. Otelul have kept an extremely similar squad this season to what they had last season so there’s no integration required – they’re already familiar with each other. My sole complaint of Otelul would be that I don’t think their strikers are good enough to play in their 4-5-1 formation but to be honest, this side scores a lot of goals from midfield so it’s not an unusual scenario for the hosts. Otelul are always strong at home and even demonstrated ability on the road last season and with some very promising youngsters coming through in midfield, the future looks quite rosy for Otelul at the moment.
Visitors Pandurii also impressed during their opening game by drawing with a fairly impotent Unirea Urziceni. However, it’s worth noting that this is not the usual Pandurii! As anyone who follows the Romanian Liga will have noticed, Pandurii were actually relegated last season. However, International were in financial chaos and withdrew from the Romanian Liga as a result so Pandurii bought International’s rights to be in the Romanian Liga. Therefore, this side is largely composed of International players and former Pandurii players but all playing under the mantle of Pandurii Targu Jiu. International were a similar side to Pandurii anyway so it’s not a dramatic change for the players tactically! Pandurii are a “stopper” side on the road and will play for the draw here without a shadow of a doubt. They’re inferior to the hosts and have suffered Otelul Galati before, although their most recent win against Pandurii was actually at Pandurii rather than in Galati as you may expect. Pandurii will need to score here, in my opinion, especially with Otelul’s rise in ability last season and I don’t think they’re good enough to do so, to be blunt!
Otelul haven’t beaten Pandurii at home during their last two attempts. However, they remain a better side nonetheless and they’re facing a “different” Pandurii this season. Otelul have a year’s experience added on to their emerging talents so I’m hoping that experience plays a key role here and it should be enough to see Otelul win the game. They’re genuinely a better side and whilst playing at home on the back of a win, I have to favour the home win today as I believe the odds could and probably should be a shade shorter than they are. This bet won’t be everyone’s favourite but I like it a lot, probably more than I should! Bear in mind that this game has under 2.5 goals written all over it too.
Verdict: Otelul Galati to win at 4/5.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
France U19 vs Spain U19 – both teams to score at 8/11.
Both sides to score in a game where the two best sides in the tournament compete with both sides having scored at least one goal in every game they’ve played in thus far looks a pure bargain here. I can’t understand how it’s as long as it is! If the game was in Spain then I’d probably understand it but it’s not – it’s actually in France! French youth teams are always good and this French side has look good thus far, especially when they need to dig deep. Gael Kakuta has been one of their stars as you’d expect with the Chelsea midfielder looking ready to taste Premier League football already at such a tender age. The same could be said for Spanish striker Daniel Pacheco of Liverpool, however, who has been linked with a loan move to Basque side Real Sociedad to gain first-team experience. Both sides have outstanding players in and thus this should be a cracking game. However, I cannot envision the scenario where both of these sides don’t score in this game so I have to endorse that bet. I’m tempted to back Spain to win the game at 11/10 in ninety minutes but to be honest, with the final being played in France, I think the odds are a bit short for my liking despite Spain boasting a better side than France. Both sides to score looks a gift to me though!
Hartberg vs Lustenau – under 2.5 goals at 5/4.
The Austrian Liga 1 is not a division that is an unders league by nature. However, this game screams “under 2.5 goals” at me because the hosts are poor and the visitors are poor. Is that everything? Of course not! Consider that Hartberg sold Patrick Burger in the window and that he scored 50% of their goals last season and then also consider that Lustenau sold leading goalscorer Froschl and goalscoring midfielders Konig and Adilovic (who all contributed approximately a third of Lustenau’s goals last season) and you’re left wondering where the goals are going to come from. Lustenau sold a lot of players in general and are a mess and Hartberg are always a mess so a draw looks extremely likely here in my eyes. Either way, I can’t help but look at the unders market because of the above information.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/4.
KuPS Kuopio vs AC Oulu – home win at 5/6.
The Magnum Areena faithful will be pleased to see visitors AC Oulu as their next opponent following their defeat to rock-bottom FC Lahti as AC Oulu haven’t beaten them for over fifteen years. KuPS travelled to AC Oulu earlier in the season and crushed their opponents today 5-2. Well, what I finally expected to happen to a poor AC Oulu side has finally happened and the wheels have come off their burst of good form and they’re now getting flattened each game and are destined for a swift return to the Ykkonen. This AC Oulu side has conceded a horrific fourteen goals in five games, which is an average of nearly three goals conceded per game. They’ve played a couple of good sides along the way but they’ve not faced the cream of Veikkausliiga football so they have to be very concerned at the moment, not to mention demoralised! KuPS aren’t as good as the table suggests but they’ve had a good season and they should still have too much for lowly AC Oulu. One thing that KuPS have brought to their games this season is goals and that’s one particularly weak spot in the AC Oulu side with goals being leaked all over the place. Both sides are actually quite similar, particularly in tenacity, but KuPS boast an additional quality advantage, not to mention experience advantage. KuPS should easily be able to do at home what they did away and odds of 5/6 are too generous for me to overlook today.
Verdict: KuPS Kuopio to win at 5/6.
Spartak Nalchik vs Amkar Perm – home win at 4/5.
Although Spartak Nalchik have drastically over-achieved so far this season and I am awaiting their inevitable downfall at somepoint, I have to back them at good odds today. They played even better than I thought they would at CSKA Moscow last match and instead of drawing as I expected they actually won, which not only emphasises their own advances as a side this season but also highlights the somewhat average side that CSKA Moscow now boasts. Nalchik have been excellent at home this season with five wins in six home games, a record which only giants Lokomotiv Moscow can match currently. Nalchik average scoring two goals per game at home, which is bizarrely one of the best records in the division currently. What I admire about Nalchik is that they don’t just rely on their strikers to bail them out – goals come from all over this side so they’re really a very good team and their belief is clearly strong currently. Although I don’t believe this magical run of theirs will last the distance, I still expect it to last past today’s game!
Visitors Amkar Perm are a tricky side to face, sort of like a mini Rubin Kazan but obviously not as good. They’re in trouble at the moment with four defeats from their last five games because a side like them has to be in-form to claim their usual token goal and thus gain them a result. Amkar are a decent side despite what the table shows although their talents lie entirely in defence. Amkar have lost four out of seven on the road this season because they’ve scored just three times along the way, not because they concede a lot. Nalchik’s defence needs to keep them out today or they could have problems and worryingly enough, Amkar have scored here for four consecutive seasons so be careful with this one. However, Amkar’s depressing 1-0 home defeat against Saturn last match and expected defeat at Terek the game before that is sending morale downwards and thus I expect an abject enough display from the visitors today to allow for a home win.
Please don’t treat this is a banker because of the misleading league table; it’s not. Pay close attention to the fact that only the top three sides in the Premier League currently have leaked less goals on the road than Amkar Perm have currently and you’ll see why the table is a tad misleading. Amkar simply don’t score goals on the road, hence their league placing. However, I have to favour the hosts today because they’re playing very well this season and should have the potency to outscore their opponents, whether Amkar turn up or not. Spartak won this fixture 4-1 last season and did the double over Amkar last year so I do expect them to do the job today although I wouldn’t touch the game if the odds drop any further – Nalchik’s side isn’t superior enough to merit the win at lower than 4/5 against a competent defensive side.
Verdict: Spartak Nalchik to win at 4/5.
FK Nizhnyi Novgorod vs Irtysh Omsk – home win at 1/2.
Speaking of bankers – look no further! I can only imagine that the price is at 1/2 as the hosts are on the back of two consecutive defeats because quality-wise the hosts are twice the side that newly-promoted Irtysh are and also boast a home record of seven wins and one draw from eight home games, scoring over two goals per home game. Irtysh are nothing more than a containing side but have still lost six out of nine on the road this season whilst scoring just four times. Irtysh don’t concede many but a single goal should be enough for the superior hosts today. Despite Nizhnyi being a little out-of-form, the hosts are still well worth 1/3 so there is value in 1/2 today, I feel.
Verdict: FK Nizhnyi Novgorod to win at 1/2.
Zhemchuzhina Sochi vs Baltika Kaliningrad – home win at 1/2.
Again, this looks another good price. I’m always a little hesitant betting against Baltika because I know there’s a good side hidden in there somewhere but the statistics don’t lie here – nobody has scored as few goals on the road as Baltika have with just three scored in nine away games – an average of a goal every three games. Baltika’s defence on the road is presentable but a potent Zhemchuzhina should finish them off with some ease today. Baltika bring some momentum into this game following their win last match at Dinamo Bryansk but they face a much better opponent today that has already won six out of nine at home this season. Zhemchuzhina occasionally have lapses defensively but there’s no doubting their attacking power so they really should win this one without too much ceremony. 1/2 is a good enough price to take it at too – I was expecting 1/3!
Verdict: Zhemchuzhina Sochi to win at 1/2.
Arsenal Kiev vs Shakhtar Donetsk – under 2.5 goals at evens.
Arsenal Kiev have progressed over the past few years from quite a poor side into a decent side, especially at home. They keep the ball well and keep scorelines low as they don’t score excessively unless Mazilu feels like doing damage and they don’t concede many either. None of Arsenal’s games so far have included more than two goals and none of their three games played have included both sides scoring. Arsenal are a hard side to play against in Kiev and although giants Shakhtar have experienced a lot of joy here over the years, I feel that today’s scoreline will be a narrower margin although I do expect them to win the game. Shakhtar haven’t really settled down into the new season yet and their new signings are taking a bit of time to gel. Shakhtar have bizarrely sold both holding midfielders that they had – Lewandowski and Duljaj – in the past week so they now look to be taking the route of never losing the ball. They’re already a fantastic possession side domestically but they should be even better from this with the proviso that they can get the ball back, which is a concerning factor. I like backing Shakhtar to score a lot of goals at the Donbass Arena because the turf suits them but not here in Kiev. I do think Shakhtar will win this game but I think Arsenal are too solid at the moment to lose this game heavily so I fancy going under 2.5 goals at decent odds of evens. In fact, I’m also quite keen on Arsenal Kiev not to score at evens as I expect Shakhtar to manipulate the ball so give that bet some thought too.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Admira Wacker, FK Krasnodar, Zhemchuzhina Sochi.
Recommended bets:
Admira Wacker, FK Nizhnyi Novgorod, and Zhemchuzina Sochi at 2/1.
Spartak Nalchik and Otelul Galati at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
UEFA European U19 Championship Final:
France vs Spain (6) 1-2
Austrian Liga 1:
Hartberg vs Lustenau (6) under 2.5 goals
Gratkorn vs Admira Wacker (8)
Austria Lustenau vs St.Polten (6)
Grodig vs WAC/St.Andra (5)
First Vienna vs SCR Altach (6)
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Standard de Liege vs Zulte-Waregem (4) 0-0
Croatian Prva Liga:
Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Lokomotiva Zagreb (4) 0-1
Inter Zapresic vs Slaven Koprivnica (5) 1-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Usti nad Labem vs Slovan Liberec (5) 1-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Manta vs Universidad Catolica (5) 1-0
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
KuPS Kuopio vs AC Oulu (7) 2-1
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Ferencvaros vs Paksi SE (6) 2-0
Irish Premier League:
Bohemians vs St.Patrick’s Athletic (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Drogheda United vs Bray Wanderers (6) 2-0
UCD vs Galway United (4) 0-0
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Banga Gargzdai vs Mazeikiai (7) 2-0
Romanian Liga:
Otelul Galati vs Pandurii Targu Jiu (6) under 2.5 goals
SC Vaslui vs Targu Mures (7) under 2.5 goals
Russian Premier League:
Saturn Moscow Oblast vs Anzhi Makhachkala (5) 2-1
Spartak Nalchik vs Amkar Perm (7) under 2.5 goals
Russian Division 1:
Salyut Belgorod vs FK Khimki (7) under 2.5 goals
Volgar Gazprom Astrakhan vs KamAZ Nab Chelny (5)
Rotor Volgograd vs Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod (6)
Mordovia Saransk vs Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast (6)
FK Nizhnyi Novgorod vs Irtysh Omsk (7)
Avangard Kursk vs Kuban Krasnodar (5)
Zhemchuzhina Sochi vs Baltika Kaliningrad (8)
FK Krasnodar vs Dinamo St.Petersburg (8)
Singaporean S-League:
Geylang United vs Albirex Niigata (6) 0-0
Swiss Challenge League:
Schaffhausen vs Vaduz (5)
Ukrainian Premier League:
Arsenal Kiev vs Shakhtar Donetsk (7) under 2.5 goals
Vorskla Poltava vs Tavriya Simferopol (6) 0-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!