Otelul Galati vs Vaslui
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There’s two very important absences in this game today. They first is pacey Otelul winger Ochirosii, whom the hosts depend a lot on for creativity and dribbling. The second is Sanmartean, whom Vaslui rely heavily on as both a leader and a composed midfielder.
What can we deduce from that? I think we’ll see a low-scoring game, for starters. Otelul are a nightmare side to face in Galati due to their constant closing down and never-say-die attitude. However, they’re looking a bit jaded and out-of-form as the long season wears on and let’s be realistic here – they’re not as good as sides like Poli Timisoara or Vaslui. They’re one of the most committed and united sides in Romania by a mile and that’s what their points come from but in terms of talent, they’re not a great side, hence them not scoring many goals. Defeats at Brasov and Targu Mures respectively of late have emphasised that the morale in the Otelul camp is lessening and the manner of their victories emphasises their weakness of not scoring goals, which is a very dangerous trait to take into a game against in-form Vaslui. I don’t think it can even be argued that Vaslui aren’t the better side here; they absolutely are, in my view. They’re unbeaten in five games since returning from the winter break, winning three times along the way and generally looking very assured too. Wily old Martins Adailton in attack provides a potent threat alongside fellow countryman Wesley, as do African strikers Pouga and Bello, all of which are needed because Vaslui aren’t a flambuoyant attacking side and they need their strikers to take their chances as a result. Nonetheless, as a unit, Vaslui are also very strong and I just don’t think Otelul will score against them here as a result.
Otelul have only scored against Vaslui once in their last three home games, losing twice and winning once along the way. Vaslui are more experienced than Otelul’s youngsters and that lack of experience is starting to show in the Galati camp, especially as tiredness begins to set in. Vaslui, however, are just warming up. Even without the influential Sanmartean, I still think Vaslui have a good chance of getting a result here due to them having better strikers. I don’t see many goals in this game, nor many chances, but if anyone’s going to score then it should be Vaslui, in my view. Therefore, my call is a Vaslui win with draw no bet cover at evens.
Team news – Otelul Galati miss Ochirosii whereas Vaslui miss Gladstone and Sanmartean.
Verdict: Vaslui to win with draw no bet at evens.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Deportes Tachira vs Cerro Porteno – both sides to score at 10/11.
This game in Venezuela sees both sides still very much in with a chance of progressing despite most of the games in this group thus far ending in draws. The other three sides in this group are all better than Deportivo Tachira but the Venezuelan side have held their own in a couple of games, drawing 0-0 at home to Santos and drawing 1-1 at Cerro Porteno in their last Copa Libertadores game. Their only undoing was in the 2-4 defeat inflicted upon them by Colo Colo, which prolonged the quite outstanding record of Chilean clubs in Venezuela. Deportivo Tachira aren’t a great side but as they demonstrated in the reversal of this fixture in Paraguay – they’re more than capable of scoring at least one goal, especially with talented Colombian striker Herrera up top and his fellow countryman Hernandez as playmaker. Tachira are good enough to give their Paraguayan opponents a good game tonight and I think they’ll do so.
I’d have taken Cerro Porteno to edge this one had they entered the game with any kind of form but as it happens, they’ve lost three consecutive Asuncion derbies ahead of this encounter against Nacional Asuncion, Libertad Asuncion, and Olimpia Asuncion respectively so morale is quite low at the moment. Those defeats were strange too, with Cerro Porteno possessing the strongest attack in Paraguay but they’ve simply failed to take their chances whilst defending like idiots, which is catastrophic for a side like them. Nanni, Lucero, and Bareiro are good enough to score against most sides in this tournament, hence Cerro Porteno scoring in every Copa Libertadores game in the current campaign. However, they do miss influential Nunez from midfield and that’s a big blow for them here so I can see them having a really tough game tonight, despite their unrivalled firepower.
1×2 market = no go. I’m not interested. However, backing both sides to score here really does interest me. Cerro Porteno aren’t good enough to keep their hosts out and vice versa. Cerro Porteno’s last trip to Venezuela earlier this year saw them draw 1-1 with Deportivo Petare and a similar scoreline tonight wouldn’t surprise me. For me, there’s value in backing both sides to score in a game that both teams frankly could do with winning.
Team news – Deportivo Tachira have doubts over Edgar Perez Greco and Sebastian Hernandez whereas Cerro Porteno miss Jorge Nunez.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 10/11.
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Club Nacional de Montevideo vs Fluminense – under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
I was initially drawn to this game because I was tempted by the home win with draw no bet at 5/6 but I’ve left that well alone after hearing that both Porta and Peralta were absent for Nacional. Their star striker nowadays is young Garcia, who has bagged an incredible twenty-one goals in twenty-three games – you can stick your money on him not being here in June (and possibly on him moving to Porto – just a hunch!) because of his talent. However, without Porta and Peralta alongside him, I don’t think Nacional have the creativity to create the chances for Garcia to score so I don’t see the highly experienced and feared hosts having it all their own way here.
However, Fluminense are not convincing such Ramalho’s contraversial exit as boss. They’re not even a shadow of the team that they were last season and that’s shown by the fact that they’ve only scored in two out of four Copa Libertadores games this season and those goals were scored against sides that attacked them. The reversal of this fixture ended 0-0 in Brazil and a similar scoreline tonight wouldn’t surprise me. Fluminense have bigger names than Nacional do, that’s for sure, but I wouldn’t say they’re a bigger club. Nacional are a huge club in South America and you’d struggle to find a more experienced side on the continent than they are. Fluminense had a one-off season last time around; I don’t expect half as much from them this season, to be honest. They look more like some talented individuals merged with some average players at the moment and they don’t convince me in attack at all.
A trip to Uruguay is never easy, especially for Argentinian or Brazilian sides. The rivalry between those three nations in particular is very strong. Neither side appears well placed to score goals in this game and neither side can afford lose the game. For me, this game has under 2.5 goals all over it.
Team news – Club Nacional de Montevideo miss Robert Flores, Richard Porta, and Horacio Peralta.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
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Neman Grodno vs Shakhtyor Soligorsk – home win at 6/4.
Shakhtyor Soligorsk are easily the most frustrating Belarusian side as it really does depend how they feel as to whether they show up or not. They can beat any Vysshaya Liga side when they put their minds to it but they often won’t due to stupid errors. They’ve barely lost any important players from last season and have instead added good depth to the squad with the likes of Sokol, Yurchanka, and Kolomyts joining them. Logically, that’d make them stronger, right? Wrong. They’ve lost twice to newly-promoted Gomel in the Belarusian Cup and lost 1-0 at a pretty poor Torpedo Zhodino last match. They don’t look a threat in front of goal and they look so vulnerable at the back that they surely can’t even be recognised from the force that they were last season. Neman Grodno can’t be recognised from the side they were last season either, however. They issued a statement of intent by signing a lot of players pre-season, merging foreigners with experienced Vysshaya Liga players. Neman Grodno were already hard to beat but now that they’ve added Moldovan hitman Frunza in attack with the likes of Suchkov, Sluka, Denisevich, and Strakhanovich into their midfield, they look a really dangerous side. I still think that they need another target man besides Fruzna and Kovalenok to be the side that they’re clearly striving to become but this side now looks so strong that I can’t help giving them a chance today against a disjointed Shakhtyor Soligorsk side, especially after an incredibly impressive and tenacious 1-1 draw at the best side in Belarus last match – BATE Borisov. This Neman Grodno side is capable of being the surprise package in Belarus this season, in my view, and today is as good a day as any to see that backed up.
The hosts don’t have a good head-to-head record against Shakhtyor Soligorsk because the visitors have a very good side, when they see fit to demonstrate it. However, the hosts are a strong side this season and Shakhtyor are notoriously poor starters so I think the home win at 6/4 is worth a punt here.
Verdict: Neman Grodno to win at 6/4.
Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Independiente Medellin – over 2.5 goals at 3/4.
I previewed this game at weekend with the same bet and it ended 2-3. My reasoning still applies to this game too, although now Independiente have the additional motivation of revenge. Independiente can’t defend and Atletico choose not to defend nowadays. For me, this is another heated over 2.5 goals game.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Accumulator fodder:
Barcelona, AB Copenhagen, Celtic.
Recommended bets:
Vaslui DNB, Celtic, and Barcelona at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Champions League:
Chelsea vs Manchester United (5) 2-1
Barcelona vs Shakhtar Donetsk (8) -1.5 handicap
Copa Libertadores:
Deportes Tachira vs Cerro Porteno (5) 1-1
Jaguares vs Internacional (3) under 2.5 goals
Union Espanola vs Caracas (6) 1-1
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs Fluminense (6) 1-0
Santos vs Colo Colo (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score, at least one red card in this game
America vs Argentinos Juniors (6) 2-1
Asian Champions League:
Nagoya Grampus vs Seoul (6) 1-0
Sydney FC vs Shanghai Shenhua (6) under 2.5 goals
Suwon Bluewings vs Kashima Antlers (5) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Hangzhou Lucheng vs Al Ain (6) 0-0
Esteghlal vs Pakhtakor Tashkent (6) 2-1
Al Rayyan vs Zob Ahan (6) 0-1
Al Shabab vs Emirates (7) 2-1
Baltic League:
Flora Tallinn vs FK Ventspils (6) 0-1
FK Jurmala vs Liepajas Metalurgs (7) 0-2
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Neman Grodno vs Shakhtyor Soligorsk (6) 2-1
Vitebsk vs Torpedo Zhodino (5) 0-0
Belshina vs Dinamo Brest (4) 1-1
FC Minsk vs Dinamo Minsk (4) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Gomel vs Dnepr Mogilev (6) 2-1
BATE Borisov vs Naftan Novopolotsk (8) -1.5 handicap
Colombian Primera A:
Real Cartagena vs Itagui Ditaires (4) 1-0
Deoprtes Quindio vs Deportivo Cali (6) 2-1
Deportivo Pereira vs Boyaca Chico (6) under 2.5 goals
Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Independiente Medellin (6) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Envigado vs Once Caldas Manizales (5) 1-1
La Equidad Bogota vs Cucuta Deportivo (7) 1-0
America de Cali vs Atletico Huila (5) 1-1
Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (6) under 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Danish 1st Division:
Hobro vs Skive (4)
Roskilde vs Hjorring (6)
AB Copenhagen vs Kolding (8)
Polish Liga 1:
Kluczbork vs Ruch Radzionkow (6)
Romanian Liga:
Gaz Metan Medias vs Targu Mures (7) 2-0
Poli Timisoara vs Astra Ploiesti (7) under 2.5 goals
Otelul Galati vs Vaslui (6) 0-1
Dinamo Bucharest vs Brasov (7) 2-1
Scottish Premier League:
Celtic vs Hibernian (8) 2-0
Motherwell vs Dundee United (6) 1-1
St.Mirren vs Aberdeen (5) 0-1
Singaporean S-League:
Balestier Khalsa vs Albirex Niigata (5) 0-0
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Celje vs Koper (5) 0-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!