Palermo vs Juventus
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Today’s featured game is the Serie A game in Sicily between Palermo and Juventus. Palermo have long been a dominant home side and although Juventus have a far more prestigious past than Palermo, they’re looking anything but the better of these two sides currently.
I can’t tell you how much I feared for Palermo this season after the departures of Kjaer and Cavani but they’ve well and truly proven me wrong with some excellent displays. In fairness, it’s the coming of age of playmaker Javier Pastore which has accelerated this Palermo side but they deserve a huge amount of credit nonetheless. The acquisition of Slovenian duo Bacinovic and Ilicic has been a really inspirational bit of business for Palermo this season, however, and it’s one that has largely gone unnoticed outside of Italy. Palermo actually has one of the best midfields in Italy at the moment, in my view, and that’s substantiated by the fact that they’ve got fairly average attackers and they’re still scoring a lot of goals. They were bit lucky to lose at Internazionale lately, to be honest. I’m not saying they matched them blow-for-blow but they took a 0-2 lead against a side that was missing a lot of players and largely held their own defensively but were eventually undone. However, Palermo do tend to lose their heads away from home, something which is rarely seen when they’re playing in Sicily. Indeed, Palermo have won seven out of eleven home games in Serie A this season whilst averaging scoring nearly two goals per home game. They’ve actually won their last six home games consecutively and have already beaten AS Roma and Sampdoria comfortably at home this season so they’re definitely worthy of your consideration here.
The other side of the coin is that Juventus are playing terribly at the moment. It’s not that they lack quality, in my view – if anything, they’ve got quality in abundance. However, the management at Juventus is strange, to say the least. It’s like they think that throwing money at a problem automatically solves it, which it doesn’t. Take their attacking situation, for example. They bought Quagliarella at the start of the season and he’s now injured for the vast majority (if not entirety) of the current campaign so what did they do? They signed Luca Toni to replace him. Luca Toni got injured so what did they do? They signed Matri. Where does it end? There’s no faith in their own player produce and this kind of tactic creates doubt and nervousness in the players, which has shown massively during back-to-back home defeats against AS Roma and Udinese respectively. Juventus have no composure, especially in defence, and their players aren’t playing well as a result of the internal problems. This club is currently a shadow of what it was due to the nervous nature and Sicily is no place for a nervous side.
It aids my cause that Juventus have a terrible record against Palermo, losing five out of their last six meetings with Palermo at either ground, which is rare in itself as Palermo don’t travel well. Juventus have lost three out of their last five visits to Palermo and with the hosts looking composed and creative whilst the visitors look nervous and defensively inept, I have to favour a Palermo win here at good odds of 6/5.
Verdict: Palermo to win at 6/5.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Gremio vs Liverpool Montevideo – home win with -1.5 handicap at 5/6.
The first leg of this Copa Libertadores tie ended 2-2 in Uruguay, which wasn’t a great surprise. The scoreline was a bit unexpected as I didn’t envision many goals but the draw was to be expected.
However, Gremio are back on familiar turf now and Gremio are notoriously only good at home, both domestically and on the continent, so I expect it to show here. Gremio have been playing games in the State Championship so they have match practice wheras Liverpool Montevideo don’t. To make matters worse for the Uruguayans, they’ve not played continental football in a long time so this is a whole new world for them and I think they’re going to experience a baptism of fire here.
The loss of star striker Jonas to Valencia CF will hurt Gremio ultimately but I don’t think it’ll affect them here as their opponents are really rather vulnerable defensively. Therfore, I’m happy to take a chance on the superior side beating the -1.5 goal handicap at 5/6 tonight although take note of that transfer for future reference when backing Gremio.
Verdict: Gremio to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 5/6.
Fulham vs Newcastle United – home win at 11/10.
Now that Fulham are starting to bring back their strikers, it’s no coincidence that their results are starting to improve. They’re a good side and they have a good manager, which is especially visible at Craven Cottage, and it’s something I expect to see even more in the near future. Their dominating 4-0 win against London rivals Tottenham Hotspur impressed me greatly due to their efficient display but most of all the impressive display of striker Moussa Dembele, who scored a good goal to cap a good display. Fulham are starting to gain confidence from such displays and results and with four consecutive home wins in all competitions leading them into this game, I have to give them a chance here as their home form statistics in the Premier League so far this season don’t really reflect their ability.
The other side of the coin here is that Newcastle United have parted with Andy Carroll and I just don’t rate their attack without him. They’ve got a lot of battlers and they certainly won’t lie down and die here. However, without Caroll, I just don’t see how they’ll take on a very resolute Fulham defence with defensive lynchpin Hangeland a particularly difficult obstacle to overcome. Carroll has scored almost half of Newcastle’s goals away from home in the Premier League this season so what will Newcastle do? They build their play around him and most of the goals that he’s not scored have come from his flick-ons so I don’t think Newcastle will be able to live up to their current Premier League statistics for much longer unless they pull something out of the bag that I’ve not anticipated here. Leon Best and Shola Ameobi just aren’t good enough for the Premier League, in my view, and this sale for Newcastle could prove to be very costly, ironically, despite them making a fortune financially.
Given that I don’t think Newcastle will score here, I really have to give Fulham the advantage for this encounter. Fulham are generously priced at 11/10 and in such a rich vein of home form, my call here is the home win.
Verdict: Fulham to win at 11/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Gremio, AS Roma, Udinese.
Recommended bets:
AS Roma and Palermo at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Copa Libertadores:
Deportes Tolima vs Corinthians (4) 2-1, draw no bet, at least one red card in this game
Gremio vs Liverpool Montevideo (8) -1.5 handicap
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets (7) under 2.5 goals
Gold Coast United vs Adelaide United (5) over 2.5 goals
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Lokeren vs Cercle Brugge (4) both sides to score
Racing Genk vs Sint-Truiden (7) 2-0
Charleroi vs Germinal Beerschot (4) 2-1
Mechelen vs Kortrijk (6) under 2.5 goals
Eupen vs Zulte-Waregem (5) 1-1
English Premier League:
Birmingham City vs Manchester City (6) 1-1
Blackpool vs West Ham United (6) over 2.5 goals
Bolton Wanderers vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (5) 0-0
Blackburn Rovers vs Tottenham Hotspur (4) 1-1
Fulham vs Newcastle United (7) 2-0
Liverpool vs Stoke City (6) 1-0
English League One:
Notts County vs Walsall (3)
Bristol Rovers vs Milton Keynes Dons (4)
Italian Serie A:
AS Roma vs Brescia (8) 2-0
Sampdoria vs Cagliari (5) under 2.5 goals
Cesena vs Catania (6) 0-0
Fiorentina vs Genoa (6) 2-1
Palermo vs Juventus (6) over 2.5 goals
Parma vs Lecce (6) 1-0
Udinese vs Bologna (8) 2-0
Chievo Verona vs SSC Napoli (6) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!