Palmeiras vs Santos
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Sao Paulo derby in Brazil between Palmeiras and Santos. Neither side has set Serie A alight thus far and I’m not sure either will.
Palmeiras have been reborn ever since Scolari took over and they have to be considered as a candidate for a continental placing this year as a result. Well, that said, if you avoid relegation in Serie A then you’re pretty much guaranteed to at least be in the Copa Sudamericana! Nonetheless, Palmeiras are a force, although curiously only at home. As a rule of thumb, I would never recommend backing Palmeiras away from home against anyone – they’re too unreliable. At home, though – treat them like you would have treated Gremio over the past few years; a side that will beat almost anyone at home. Four wins from four home games with an average of over two goals scored per home game and still being the only side in Serie A yet to concede a goal at home speaks volumes for the strength of Palmeiras. I think they may concede today though, sadly, as key centre-back Heleno is suspended. The absence of playmaker Valdivia would concern me more had he played more for Palmeiras this season but he’s not so I’ll leave that well alone, talented though he unquestionably is. Instead, it’ll have to be the old guard that pulls Palmeiras through today with Assuncao and Lincoln leading from midfield. Luan and Kleber have looked lethal up front together this season and that’s played a big part in Palmeiras’ success although Scolari will be pleased to have ex-Santos striker Maikon Leite competing for a place too. Santos really should have enough to nick this one, in my view.
The other side of the coin is that Santos are not in the best of places ahead of this game. They have a terrific manager in Muricy but he’s working with very little right now because his hands are tied as Santos consistently sell too many talented youngsters year after year. Last year, they let Andre and Wesley slip through the net. In the last few weeks, Keirrison has returned to Barcelona, Ze Eduardo has joined Genoa, and Alan Patrick has joined Shakhtar Donetsk. As I’ve mentioned already, Palmeiras signed Maikon Leite from Santos so Santos’ attacking options already look a little thin, glorious though those remaining are. I mean, Neymar and Ganso are good enough to win a game for Santos against just about anyone in Serie A, as is experienced playmaker Elano. However, all three of them are in Argentina with the Brazil Copa America squad so they won’t be playing in this derby tonight. If we add up all the players Santos have sold with all the players they have missing tonight, you can generally assume that Borges will lead the line on his own and the midfield will be built around Possebon and Arouca; not too terrifying, is it? Santos welcome back Diogo after a lengthy injury so he could provide an alternative or a strike partner for Borges but even so – this Santos side does not impress me at the moment, as much as their manager consistently does!
Therefore, derby or not, the home win at evens really appeals to me tonight. Quality-wise, Santos are arguably the better side in front of goal but Palmeiras are much better in defence. Winners of games like these are often determined by additional factors and today those factors are absentees. I can only consider evens on a Palmeiras win tonight as good value with Santos bereft of the vast majority of their attacking talent, hence the selection!
Team news – Palmeiras miss Heleno and Valdivia whereas Santos miss Neymar, Elano, and Ganso.
Verdict: Palmeiras to win at evens.
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Dinamo Minsk vs Dnepr Mogilev – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Having seen the last two results of Dinamo Minsk, a lot of people will be on the home win today. I’m not one of them, however. Dinamo look to be finally galvanising after all their summer signings/departures and the U21 tournament in Denmark appeared to help their players get to know one another better. Since Belarus U21 finished third in that tournament and Dinamo’s players returned, they’ve now won back-to-back Vysshaya Liga games and bagged six goals along the way. They only beat BATE Borisov as the reigning champions had a man dismissed after ten minutes but whatever; you take what opportunities come your way. Dinamo Minsk are not the force they once were; they’re just not as good as they used to be. However, there is certainly ability in their team in the likes of Dragun and Perepechko in midfield. Hell, even lazy Hleb and pacey Kovel up front can be dangerous. Dinamo’s defence has suffered a bit since the U21 Championships but Politevich and Veretilo should become stronger as the season wears on. Dinamo are still very much in a transitional period right now and you can see that from the fact that they’re conceding – despite their defence being strong – and scoring – despite their attack being devoid of a natural goalscorer! Ledesma is doing his best but he’s not the man for the job, in my view. Dinamo’s last three games in all competitions have gone over 2.5 goals because of the above combination and the game with Dnepr Mogilev today should go over too, really. Dnepr Mogilev have accepted that relegation is a real possibility this season due to some big losses pre-season and they’ve impressively started attacking well in response to not defending well enough to keep sides out. Subsequently, they’ve only lost once in their last five away games, which was during their trip to face BATE. They’ve won at FC Minsk and drawn 2-2 with Shakhtyor Soligorsk in that time so they’ve not exactly had easy games, either. They’ve scored in four of those five games, however, and four of those five have gone over 2.5 goals, just as the last three meetings between these two sides in Minsk have done. Therefore, although I don’t really rate either side right now, I think over 2.5 goals at 4/5 looks likely here.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Figueirense vs Ceara – home win at 4/5.
There’s not much between these two sides but they are both most definitely “home sides”. Neither score or concede a lot at home but both recognise the importance of home wins, hence their respective records. Away from home, both sides struggling tremendously with scoring goals and keeping clean sheets and that’s basically what I expect to happen today. Importantly, Ceara miss regular striker Marcelona Nicacio although Washington is expected to step in. New signing Edmilson has not been included in the squad for this trip either, which is a blow – his experience would be vital in what is essentially a relegation six-pointer. The hosts have been strong at home this season, beating some good sides along the way. I’m a bit concerned that only Aloisio appears to be able to find the net but the hosts usually find a way through at home and given how weak Ceara always are away from home, the home win interests me at 4/5 but I’d leave it if it drops.
Team news – Ceara miss Marcelo Nicacio and Edmilson.
Verdict: Figueirense to win at 4/5.
IFK Mariehamn vs Haka Valkeakoski – home win with -1 AH at 11/10.
Today’s hosts are missing a lot of players although I’d only point to Ingves and Okodugha as being particularly important absentees. Okodugha gives the islanders width and his lengthy injury will hurt them long-term. Ingves will be missed – I mean, Lehtinen can still partner Kangaskolkka but Ingves is considerably better than Lehtinen, who is something of a donkey, in my eyes. Fortunately, Kangaskolkka is not a donkey; he very much has the capacity to score a goal or two here. Let’s not forget that IFK Mariehamn have attacking duo Emet and Forsell in midfield, both of which are dangerous with their passing skills and Forsell especially is lethal with free-kicks. The hosts are very hard to overcome in Aland and although I’d be more concerned about their absences against a good side, Haka Valkeakoski are happily not a good side.
You know when there’s a side that keeps doing well without ever deserving to? Well, Haka are definitely one of those sides. I’m absolutely baffled as to how this side has got any points this season. I mean, seriously – they’re terrible. Their strongest area is defence and yet no other club in the division has conceded more than they have! They struggle with goalscoring and yet somehow convert the odd chance that comes their way. They played TPS Turku – who had ten men from the 30th minute – in their last Veikkausliiga away game and eventually won 1-2 with virtually the only two chances that they created in the whole game. It’s just staggering to see a side with so much luck, it really is! How Haka are above Honka and KuPS is just destroying my mind and eating my soul!! Their absences aren’t huge today either but come on – only Nooitmeer, Robinson, and Weckstrom from this side would be guaranteed a place at another Veikkausliiga club if Haka didn’t exist; Metzger and Sihvola might get bit-part roles too, I suppose. I cannot express how poor Haka are at creating chances, however. Read what you will into their 3-1 against Jaro Pietarsaari; Jaro didn’t show up for that game and missed star striker Zeze so it wasn’t entirely unexpected.
Bluntly, I cannot accept that Haka are where they are or that their luck will last. They’re due a “come down” and IFK Mariehamn in Aland is a dangerous away game for any Finnish side. I think the hosts have more than enough going for them to beat a frankly inferior Haka side convincingly so the -1 asian handicap at 11/10 appeals to me today, especially with Haka having lost three out of their last four visits to the island group, the most recent of which was a 4-0 drubbing earlier this year in the Liiga Cup.
Team news – IFK Mariehamn miss both Mikko & Markus Paatelainen, Ekhalie, Okodugha, de Abreu, and Ingves whereas Haka Valkeakoski miss Ojala and Koljander.
Verdict: IFK Mariehamn to beat the -1 asian handicap at 11/10.
Jippo Joensuu vs KPV Kokkola – both sides to score at evens.
I don’t normally get involved with Jippo when the word “goals” is mentioned other than to say that it’s very unlikely that there will be any. However, things have changed ahead of this game and I think we may see some today.
Jippo are not a potent side but they’re a very efficient and well-organised side. If you beat them in Joensuu then you’ve done bloody well in my books. However, with key defender Korpela a big doubt ahead of this game, I think there’s a gap there for KPV to exploit today. Jippo have scored in three out of their last four games and have conceded in five out of their last seven games. They’re definitely not an over 2.5 goals side; far from it. However, I’d love to see the statistics on the number of 1-1 draws this side ends up with due to being nearly impossible to beat and yet frustratingly inconsistent in front of goal. As long as Keister is passed fit today though – he’s not trained for most of this week – then I fancy the hosts to get their usual token goal today.
Will KPV Kokkola score here? That’s a big question, really – I’d rarely put money on anyone to score in Joensuu, to be honest. However, things have changed lately in Kokkola and they’ve changed for the better. First of all, KPV Kokkola signed Henri Myntti, who became somewhat infamous with Tampere United a couple of years ago due to his massive frame and ability to put the ball in the net. Irrespective of his lack of match practice, I’m still of the opinion that this beanpole is too good for the Ykkonen; he should really be playing Veikkausliiga football and you have to feel that clubs like VPS Vaasa have missed a trick by not signing him. Additionally, Jaro Pietarsaari have seen KPV’s woeful form and league placing and have thrown Shpak, Khidesheli, and Tahvanainen at KPV Kokkola to help them out a bit. Amusingly, KPV now have four Georgians in their team, probably the most number of Georgians anywhere in northern Europe! Khidesheli will improve their midfield, as will Tahvanainen, and Ukrainian defender Shpak should help KPV stop shipping so many goals at the back so long-term, KPV should start to improve. They’re still without a goal away from home in the Ykkonen this year though, worryingly. However, their Georgian contingent are all capable players and their additions in midfield should aid their creativity and with Korpela a doubt for the hosts, I think there’s a gap that KPV can exploit today, especially with big Myntti up front. I doubt we’ll see KPV get anything more than a point in Joensuu today though – not with key defender Kalliokoski, young striker Palosaari, and number one goalkeeper Lyyski all absent. It’s just fortunate that Myntti is used to being the lone target man!
So yeah – I think Myntti is too good for this division and that should really improve KPV’s goalscoring threat long-term. With the above in mind, I think we’ll see both sides scoring today and odds of evens really appeal to me, especially as the new signings of KPV should be like a breath of fresh air in their somewhat demoralised team.
Team news – Jippo Joensuu miss Ngueukam and have doubts over Korpela and Keister whereas KPV Kokkola miss Kalliokoski, Melarti, Lyyski, and Palosaari.
Verdict: Both sides to score at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Nomme Kalju, Shakhtar Donetsk.
Recommended bets:
Palmeiras, Nomme Kalu, and Shakhtar Donetsk at just over evens
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Copa America:
Colombia vs Bolivia (5) 1-0
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Vitebsk vs FC Minsk (5) 1-1
Dinamo Minsk vs Dnepr Mogilev (6) 2-1
Brazilian Serie A:
Fluminense vs Flamengo (6) 0-1, at least one red card in this game
Gremio vs Coritiba (4) 2-2
Atletico Goianiense vs Corinthians (5) 0-0
Bahia vs Botafogo (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Palmeiras vs Santos (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Atletico Mineiro vs America Mineiro (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Figueirense vs Ceara (7) 1-0
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Flora Paide vs Nomme Kalju (8) 0-1
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
VPS Vaasa vs KuPS Kuopio (4) 1-2
FC Honka Espoo vs MyPa Anjalankoski (7) over 2.5 goals
IFK Mariehamn vs Haka Valkeakoski (7) 2-0
Finnish Ykkonen:
AC Oulu vs PK-35 Helsinki (6)
HiFK Helsinki vs OPS Oulu (5)
Jippo Joensuu vs KPV Kokkola (6)
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs FH Hafnarfjordur (5) 1-1
Fylkir Reykjavik vs KR Reykjavik (5) 1-2
Irish Premier League:
St.Patrick’s Athletic vs Dundalk (6) 2-1
Japanese J-League:
Kashima Antlers vs Albirex Niigata (7) 1-0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka (6) 1-1
Omiya Ardija vs Gamba Osaka (5) 1-1
Latvian Virsliga:
RFS/Olimps Riga vs Jelgava (7) 0-1
FK Jurmala vs FC Jurmala (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Valerenga Oslo vs Tromso (7) 2-1 (may yet be postponed)
Singaporean S-League:
Armed Forces vs Hougang United (7) 2-1
Woodlands Wellington vs Balestier Khalsa (6) 1-2
Swedish Allsvenskan:
IFK Goteborg vs Syrianska Sodertalje (7) 2-0
Mjallby Solvesborg vs BK Hacken Goteborg (5) 1-2
Elfsborg Boras vs Orebro (7) 2-0
Ukrainian Premier League:
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon Kiev (8) -1.5 handicap
Dynamo Kiev vs Metalist Kharkiv (7) 2-1
Chernomorets Odessa vs Metalurg Donetsk (5) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!