Penarol vs Internacional
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Copa Libertadores game in Uruguay between giants Penarol and Brazilian heavyweights Internacional. Pre-tournament, I fancied both sides to do well and both have thus far, albeit with a bit of fortune for the hosts.
Indeed, it’s that fortune I’m looking to exploit here as Penarol have only impressed me properly once in their six games played in the Copa Libertadores this season, which was during their 1-3 victory in Argentina against Godoy Cruz de Mendoza. Penarol have some excellent attacking players and some very experienced players too. However, they are very susceptible at the back and although they’ve not really had the necessary games to exploit that yet, I think we could see a taste of it tonight. Penarol have kept one clean sheet in this tournament and that was at home to Liga de Quito, who couldn’t play well away from home if they tried! Other than that, Penarol have looked shaky at the back, especially in their 5-0 drubbing in Ecuador against Liga de Quito. In Estoyanoff, Martinuccio, Pacheca, Urretaviscaya, and especially Alonso, Penarol have a deadly attack when they choose to utilise it. They’ve not really “clicked” in the Copa Libertadores thus far, however, and most of the goals that they have scored have been rather fortunate. Penarol don’t lack in fans – they’re one of the most well-supported sides in South America – and they’re not short on tenacity either, especially against a Brazilian side! However, I just think that their statistics in the tournament thus far are a tad misleading and we may see an example of that tonight.
Visitors Internacional are one of the favourites for this tournament and having watched them a few times, it’s easy to see why that is. Falcao has them playing some good attacking football with some very talented players so they’re to be taken seriously here. Internacionaly were set a whole host of challenges in the group stages with a trip to Mexico to face Jaguares at 3500 metres above sea level, a trip to Ecuadorian costal city Guayaquil to face the ever-defensive Emelec, and a trip to Cochabamba in Bolivia to face a Jorge Wilstermann side at about 3000 metres above sea level of altitude without really knowing any of their opposing players due to mass sales by the Bolivians. Therefore, I think all of Internacional’s away games have ended rather well with the above in mind, especially the 1-4 win in Bolivia, although I must confess that I did think Internacional would hold their lead in Ecuador. Nonetheless, Internacional are very much the complete side now that Damiao and Cavenaghi are available in attack, so much so that Falcao has allowed Alecsandro to join Vasco da Gama. He was their leading goalscorer last season so it’s a strong statement of belief by Falcao in his players. Hell, I’m even overlooking the pacey Rafael Sobis, who is yet another talented striker! Consider that immense midfield behind those strikers contains Argentinian duo D’Alessandro and Guinazu, let alone experienced Tinga, then you have a terrific amount of creativity, experience, skill, and finesse and that’s what’s steered Internacional to the position that they’re in now. Signing Bolatti and sticking him in front of the back four has done Internacional the power of good too.
Internacional are virtually at full-strength for this game with only Sorondo absent, who has actually been withdrawn from their Copa Libertadores team due to injury, in fact. Perhaps it’s for the best – I can’t see Penarol clapping an ex-Defensor Sporting academy product onto the field in this game! Either way, Internacional have a very experienced and able defence and terrific firepower so I think they can really upset the hosts today. Brazil and Uruguay have long had local rivalry so there may be cards in this game. However, I still think odds of 6/5 on the away win here are good value, particularly with no special geographical advantage for the hosts and especially with a next round tie for Internacional with bitter rivals Gremio looming, should they overcome Penarol over two legs.
Team news – Internacional miss Sorondo.
Verdict: Internacional to win at 6/5.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Otelul Galati vs Gaz Metan Medias – home win to nil at 11/10.
I’m amazed and impressed that Otelul Galati are still in with a shout of winning the Liga despite their financial troubles, despite the locals of Romania supposedly wanting to see a “proper” side near the top of the table in their place, and despite not really having any outstanding players. Otelul Galati are simply a very strong unit; arguably the strongest unit in Romanian football. They don’t score many but they let very few in, too. This side will close you down from the first whistle until the final whistle and sides hate playing in Galati for that reason. Otelul have won ten out of fourteen home games this season, drawing four times along the way. They’ve done that by conceding an average of just over a goal per every two home games whilst scoring approximately 1.5 goals per home game. What I also like about Otelul is that their goals come from all over the park – not just their attack. It’s a bit surprising that star winger Ochirosii is yet to score for them in the Liga this season but the likes of Ilie, Vigilanti, and Giurgiu have more than compensated for his lack of goals and what the winger lacks in goals, he makes up for in assists. Although Otelul miss midfielder Paraschiv today, they still have a very strong unit and have kept three clean sheets in their four home games since returning from the winter break so they need to be taken seriously here.
I used to love opposing Gaz Metan Medias when they played away from home last year as they used to defend a lot and thus were rather predictable. However, this side has changed tactics now; they attack a lot away from home and thus a good number of their games go over 2.5 goals. The reliance on Eric de Oliveira isn’t as much as it was, although don’t get me wrong – they do still rely upon their Brazilian star! However, Litu, Aganovic, and Muntean have all contributed more to the Gaz Metan attack in this campaign so they’ve improved as an attacking side. That said, they’ve become a lot weaker defensively as a result and thus their away results tend to fluctuate between amazing and terrible rather easily! I think the change has been good for Gaz Metan as a whole but they should struggle with it today due to absences. They miss star midfielder Muntean, integral defender Hoban and Markovic, not to mention striker Aganovic and back-up striker Del Campo. In my opinion, that’s too many losses for Gaz Metan to contend with an energetic Otelul Galati today and given that they’ve failed to register a single goal against Otelul in their last three meetings, I think Gaz Metan will struggle today.
Seven out of Otelul’s ten home wins this season have been without conceding and although Gaz Metan are considerably harder to nullify than they used to be, I think they’ll struggle here without Muntean. It’ll need some magic from Eric to ruin this bet but for the hosts to win the game without conceding with the above in mind, 11/10 looks appealing.
Team news – Otelul Galati miss Paraschiv whereas Gaz Metan Medias miss Markovic, Aganovic, Del Campo, Hoban, and Muntean.
Verdict: Otelul Galati to win to nil at 11/10.
Accumulator fodder:
AGF Aarhus, Dinamo Bucharest, FC Zurich.
Recommended bets:
Internacional, FC Zurich, and AGF Aarhus at 3/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Europa League:
Porto vs Villarreal CF (7) 2-1
SL Benfica vs Sporting Braga (7) 2-0
Copa Libertadores:
Penarol vs Internacional (5) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Fluminense vs Libertad Asuncion (6) 1-0
Danish Division 1:
Hvidovre vs AGF Aarhus (8)
Finnish Ykkonen:
HIFK vs Viikingit Helsinki (6) both sides to score
Romanian Liga:
Dinamo Bucharest vs Gloria Bistrita (8) 2-0
Otelul Galati vs Gaz Metan Medias (7) 1-0
Pandurii Targu Jiu vs Steaua Bucharest (5) 0-0
Singapoean S-League:
Albirex Niigata vs Armed Forces (6) 0-1
Etoile vs Young Lions (7) 2-0
Swiss Super League:
FC Zurich vs Neuchatel Xamax (8) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!