Peru vs Senegal
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So you thought the UEFA Champions League didn’t start until August?! Shame on you! A quick word about both games – I fancy Dudelange to win with plenty of goals but no odds interest me. I like Valletta -1.5 but cannot find any odds anywhere – unfortunately, bookies seem to have temporarily ceased putting odds on games they know nothing about.
However, what does interest me today is the international friendly in the early hours of the morning between Peru and Senegal.
This game is in the Estadio Nacional in Lima, which holds no altitude advantage so that pretty much does Peru in, in my view. Indeed, it’s not even their regular stadium for national games – Estadio Monumental is – so there isn’t a great deal of home advantage here.
You know, I’ve often slated Venezuela and Bolivia as the weaker sides in South America but Peru’s lack of firepower is so embarrassing that I have to lower them beneath both of them nowadays. Pizarro is a good target man, Guerrero is a pacey and able striker, and Farfan’s pace and power is a constant threat. However, I’ve heard – this isn’t confirmed, incidentally – that Farfan and Pizarro miss out. News is a bit scarce on this game but that’s what I’ve heard, anyway – it may be wise to wait and see the line-ups before betting. If that is the case, however, then Peru’s firepower is absolutely zero. They’ve got some other decent players like Ramirez, Zambrano, and Vargas, but they’re simply not a goalscoring side. They’re pretty competent at the back and don’t often concede at home but they’re not a threat in front of goal so I don’t fear them here.
Senegal bring the same squad to this game as they did to Colombia in their recent friendly so it’s effectively their “B” team. However, Senegal are one of the few nations on the African continent that does have a decent second string – they’re not great, I wouldn’t back them to win against most sides, but they’re alright – so I expect them to produce a similar display in this game as they did against Colombia. Colombia didn’t really dominate Senegal with their 2-0 scoreline but they have some players capable of winning them games and that’s what mattered. Senegal have a big, strong squad with plenty of pace so they’re not a side to be taken lightly. Again, I’d not back them to win a game like this but I think they’re more than capable of providing stubborn resistance here.
Subsequently, I find terrific value in taking under 2.5 goals at evens here. If you recall Peru’s games in the Kirin Cup earlier in the month then you’ll remember they drew them all 0-0 as they defended doggedly and did little up front. They’re just not a very good attacking side nowadays and I think we’ll see that perfectly illustrated tonight. I wouldn’t touch the 1×2 market but under 2.5 goals looks very generously priced, particularly as twelve out of Peru’s last fifteen home games in all competitions have gone under 2.5 goals and they only usually go over if the away team scores, which I doubt they will.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Tuesday’s Picks
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
International Friendly:
Peru vs Senegal (5) 0-0
UEFA Champions League:
Santa Coloma vs F91 Dudelange (7) over 2.5 goals
Tre Fiori vs Valletta (8) 0-2
Irish Premier League:
Bray Wanderers vs Dundalk (5) 0-1
Singaporean S-League:
Albirex Niigata vs Balestier Khalsa (6) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!