Poland vs Argentina
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Today’s secondary featured game is the International Friendly between Poland and Argentina in Warsaw.
This is not a highly-anticipated event en mass with Argentina not really interested in the game (hence them bringing their B/C squad) and Poland not being interested as a result of that, hence selling only about 8000 tickets for a venue which holds 30000+.
However, I do think that there’s value in the game. Argentina were humbled in Nigeria a few days ago but there’s been a huge amount of controversy surrounding the game with claims that it was fixed and having seen some of the footage of the game, they may have a point. All of that talk of corruption plus the lengthy travel time and the criticism from Grondona to current Argentina boss Batista for “shaming Argentinian football” (or something of this nature) for bringing a weak squad ahead of the Copa America and we have an Argentina side that is under pressure to deliver here.
It’s easier to mention who Argentina haven’t brought for this game rather than who they have brought! There’s no Burdisso, G.Milito, D.Milito, Zanetti, Cambiasso, di Maria, Gago, Mascherano, Tevez, Aguero, Messi, Higuain, or Lavezzi. Additionally, they lost Otamendi and Angeleri last match through injury so their already fractured defence is practically in ruins. Batista is placing his trust in emerging talent such as Gaitan, Jara, Ruben, Belluschi, and Formica, all of which are very capable players and in response to the criticism of both them and their boss, I expect a typical backs-to-the-wall display from Argentina today and I expect to see them attack and score goals here as a result.
Poland themselves miss Obraniak, Sadlok, Glowacki, Boruc, Smolarek, Jelen, Peszko, and Guerreiro for this game. Sadlok can be replaced but Glowacki’s absence in defence leaves a gaping hole, especially from an experience perspective. Smolarek is Poland’s best striker – when it suits him – but Lewandowski and Brozek can be very good themselves so I’ve no concerns over their attack. However, a midfield without Obraniak, Peszko, and Guerreiro is going to struggle here. There’ll be a lot hinged upon Blasczyzkowski as a result and he’s not consistent enough to deliver, despite his ability. I still think Poland can score at least once against this very inexperienced and stretched Argentina defence today but I also think they can concede here. Poland’s most experienced defender in the squad at the moment is Dudka and he’s likely to be played in midfield, from what I’ve heard. If that happens, Argentina’s attackers will have a lot of fun exploiting the Polish defence! Additionally, Poland have brought two very young and inexperienced goalkeepers for this game – Sandomierski and Szczesny – so either of those two collaborating with an inexperienced defence can often result in disaster.
Either way, I expect both sides to go for it today. Neither looks strong enough to sit back and play a composed game here so I expect goals. Both sides look awful in defence ahead of this encounter and with Argentina looking to prove a point and Poland looking to get a bit of pride from beating a footballing heavyweight, I’m left looking at over 2.5 goals priced at 4/5 and finding value in that selection today.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Benin vs Ivory Coast – lay Ivory Coast at 4/5.
I’m prepared to accept that Benin aren’t the side that they were a couple of years ago but they’re still not an easy side to face, especially at home. I rate this side quite a lot, to be honest, especially with Omotoyossi and Sessegnon in their ranks. They also boast Reda Johnson from Sheffield Wednesday, Babatounde Bello from MSK Zilina, and Mickael Pote from Le Havre, to name a few, so they’re not a bunch of nobodies! They’re actually unbeaten in their last nine consecutive home games in all competitions and have held Mali to a 1-1 draw and beaten Ghana 1-0 along the way. Benin are not an easy side to score against and they do have a good attacking threat themselves so I think the price on Ivory Coast is pretty short here.
Away games in Africa are always hard to win; even the bigger nations struggle. Therefore, 4/5 on Ivory Coast really surprised me here as Benin are a good side, in my view. I mean, looking at Ivory Coast’s attacking options – Gervinho, Drogba, Kalou, Romaric, Doumbia, Wilfried etc. it’s easy to get carried away and to back them to beat anyone. That attack is quite simply deadly when it wants to be so fair enough. However, Ivory Coast are really struggling in defence and midfield ahead of this game with Meite, Tiene, Demel, Kolo Toure, and Boka all absent today. They miss Fae, Zokora, Akale, and Yapi Yapo from midfield too so the White Elephants are denied a hell of a lot of experience and ability today. As I mentioned earlier, away games on this continent are not easy and experience is key but Ivory Coast are pretty short of that, especially defensively today so I fear for them here. They’re likely to give a debut to Leeds United winger Gradel, such is their need for midfielders and in my view, they need to be at 100% to win at Benin so my call is to lay the visitors today.
Verdict: Lay Ivory Coast at 4/5.
Australia vs New Zealand – home win with -1.5 handicap at 6/5.
This is a very bold call considering that Australia miss Cahill, Kewell, Schwarzer, Carney, North, Culina, Bresciano, and Grella today. However, I’m going to give the likes of Kruse, Thompson, Holman, Emerton, Wilkshire, and Neill the benefit of the doubt here as there’s enough experience and talent in the remaining players to get the required result at home today against their bitter rivals – the Kiwis!
Atypically, there’s not much between these two sides, really. Australia have more talented attacking players and New Zealand have better defensive players. However, the difference between the two sides is depth as Australia have it and New Zealand don’t. Therefore, I view the absences of Nelsen, Lochhead, Bertos, and Christie as far more damaging to New Zealand than I view the absentees of Australia being to their own team. Nelsen and Lochhead form two of New Zealand’s back four and you saw what Mexico did to them in USA a few days ago without them both so I think Australia can hurt them here too.
Travel is a big factor here. As I mentioned before, New Zealand were in USA three days ago and by my count, they’ve travelled about 9000 miles to play this game. This stretched and humbled squad will be tired – it’s as simple as that.
Can Australia capitalise on that? I think so. They’ve got just enough firepower to make 6/5 on the -1.5 handicap look very juicy indeed here. Osleck has been pretty smart here, in my view, picking five players that ply their trade in Japan and South Korea, whose leagues are mid-season currently. A handful of his players play in the A-League but most play in Europe and their league campaigns have just ended so match fitness is within reach. However, New Zealand’s team predominantly play in the A-League so not only do the hosts know their opponents inside out but they’re also a lot more fit than their visitors are as the A-League season ended some time ago. The advantage I’ll give New Zealand here is that boss Herbert is also in charge of Wellington Phoenix, who play in the A-League, and that means he is familiar with some of the Australian players and the venue. However, it’s a small advantage in a sea of large disadvantages so as risky as it may seem, I think there’s value in taking Australia -1.5 at 6/5.
Verdict: Australia to beat the -1.5 handicap at 6/5.
Viikingit Helsinki vs OPS Oulu – home win at 11/10.
Both of these sides have had up and down spells so far in the Ykkonen this season but I think we’re finally starting to see some consistency.
Viikingit enter this game on the back of two consecutive wins against Jippo Joensuu and KPV Kokkola respectively. That means they’ve now won three out of their last four games and although they lost their manager a few important players pre-season, they’re finally starting to get their act together. Their defence looks a tad vulnerable and they’re not creating enough chances to be considered as genuine promotion candidates this season, in my view. However, their momentum is strong and they do have some good players in their team so I fancy their chances here.
OPS’ displays so far this season would lead you to believe that they’re a match for Viikingit but for me, they’re just not. They’ve had some easy games and although I respect them for taking their chances and playing well as a unit, I don’t rate them as being anywhere near as good as the Ykkonen table would have you believe that they are. They’ve only really had one true test this season and they lost that game 1-2 at home to PK-35 Helsinki. OPS Oulu aren’t strong in attack but they are quite solid defensively, which is a staple part of any good performance they produce. Brazilian striker Anderson has settled in pretty well and he’s becoming a threat, hence OPS’ improved goalscoring ratio, but they’re still not what I’d call a good side. I think it’d stupid to underestimate them but I find it equally as stupid to overestimate them which it looks like the bookies are, based on the odds, at least.
For me, Viikingit should be about 9/10 or evens for this game so there should be value in the home win at 11/10. I’d leave if it drops as the Ykkonen still has many twists and turns this year but as the better side, I fancy Viikingit to edge a tight game today.
Verdict: Viikingit Helsinki to win at 11/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Nigeria, Guinea, Tunisia, Australia, AC Oulu.
Recommended bets:
No multiples appeal to me today – sorry guys!
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
African Nations Qualifiers:
Mauritius vs Congo DR (7) 0-1
Angola vs Kenya (6) 1-0
Zimbabwe vs Mali (5) 2-1
Ethiopia vs Nigeria (8) 0-1
Comoros vs Libya (7) 0-2
Central African Republic vs Tanzania (7) 0-0
Benin vs Ivory Coast (6) 1-1
Swaziland vs Sudan (5) 1-1
Botswana vs Malawi (6) 1-0
Burundi vs Rwanda (5) 0-0
Liberia vs Cape Verde Islands (6) 2-1
Guinea vs Madagascar (8) 2-0
Tunisia vs Chad (8) 2-0
Egypt vs South Africa (7) 2-1
Toulon Tournament:
Colombia vs Italy (5) 1-1
Ivory Coast vs Portugal (7) 0-2
International Friendlies:
Australia vs New Zealand (8) 2-0
China vs Uzbekistan (7) 1-0
Poland vs Argentina (5) 2-2
International Friendlies – U21:
England vs Norway (7) 2-1
Spain vs Russia (7) 1-0
Ukraine vs France (6) 2-1
Argentinian Primera Division:
Quilmes vs Boca Juniors (6) 1-2
Gimnasia De La Plata vs Racing Club Avellaneda (4) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Atletico Huracan vs Tigre (5) 0-1
River Plate vs Colon de Santa Fe (6) 1-1
Brazilian Serie A:
Flamengo vs Corinthians (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Gremio vs Bahia (5) 1-1
Coritiba vs Vasco da Gama (5) 0-1
Santos vs Avai (6) over 2.5 goals
America Mineiro vs Internacional (6) 1-1
Chilean Primera Division:
Universidad Catolica vs Union La Calera (7) 2-0
Colombian Primera A:
Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Deportes Tolima (5) 2-2
Finnish Ykkonen:
Viikingit Helsinki vs OPS Oulu (7)
PS Kemi Kings vs Espoo (7)
PK-35 Helsinki vs Hameenlinna (7)
KooTeePee Kotka vs KPV Kokkola (6)
AC Oulu vs HiFK Helsinki (8)
Italian Serie B:
Varese vs Padova (6)
Novara vs Reggina (6)
Latvian Virsliga:
Gulbene 2005 vs FK Jurmala (6) 0-1
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Bryne vs Honefoss (6) over 2.5 goals
Hamarkameratene vs Nybergsund (6)
Lov-Ham Bergen vs Alta (5)
Randaberg vs Hodd (4)
Ranheim vs Mjondalen (6)
Sandnes Ulf vs Sandefjord (5)
Strommen vs Bodo Glimt (5)
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion (5) 1-1
3 de Febrero vs Olimpia Asuncion (6) 0-1
Swedish Superettan:
Degerfors vs Vasteras (7)
Assyriska Sodertalje vs Falkenberg (6)
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Defensor Sporting vs Tacuarembo (7) 2-0
Central Espanol vs Danubio (5) 1-0
Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro (6) 1-1
El Tanque Sisley vs Fenix (6) 2-1
Penarol vs Racing Club Montevideo (4) 1-2
River Plate Montevideo vs Bella Vista (7) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!