Porto vs Uniao de Leiria
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Liga Sagres game between reigning champions Porto and relegation battlers Leiria.
Porto are no longer the best side in Portugal, in my view. Benfica possess more consistency than they do and Porto have looked vulnerable this season now that Villas-Boas is no longer at the helm. Porto still possess tremendous attacking qualities but they do lack the winning mentality sometimes and it hurts them when it shows. Porto have conceded in more games than they should have done this season and that in itself piles further pressure upon a side that already has to cope with a lot of pressure. They’ve come to realise that a replacement for Falcao was required and signed one in January – Janko. Not really the same breed as Falcao but the giant Austrian hitman definitely gives Porto a “Plan B” and to be fair, they’ve missed that a lot this season so maybe it’ll prove to be a genius signing. Porto do have more than enough in their ranks to score a few goals though, especially at the Estadio do Dragao, and I fancy them to do that here.
Leiria aren’t a good side. They should lose this game comfortably, really. They’ve no money, they’re losing players all the time as a result, and they have few fans. This side almost never ventures out of their own half on the road barring their counter-attacks and yet Leiria have still managed to score in a bafflingly large amount of away games this season. They may or may not score here but they’re in for a rough ride either way against a vastly superior Porto side. Porto have looked dubious at the back, though – Leiria could well poach a goal and irritate the handicappers here.
Porto will almost certainly win this game, in my view. I’d avoid the handicaps, to be honest – it depends how Porto feel as to how many they win by. Leiria could well play a part in the scoreline by nicking a goal, which would help as Porto average scoring over three goals per home game. Helpfully, both Otamendi and Rolando are out for Porto, which increases the chances of them conceding here. Hulk returns, which again increases the chance of this one coming in too. We can expect Janko to debutise with Kleber ruled out and the return of influential Argentinian central midfielder Lucho Gonzalez should inspire Porto to a convincing win here. Either way, taking over 3 goals at 4/5 looks to be the best way to approach this one, in my view.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at 4/5.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, please find my value tips listed below in no particular order:
AA Gent vs Club Brugge – lay AA Gent at 5/6.
Barring their last couple of games, Gent have been very unconvincing since returning from their brief winter break, in my view. They’ve looked shaky at the back and it’s costing them in most of their games. Ok, so they’ve ripped apart cash-strapped Sint-Truiden 6-0 and won 2-3 at newly-promoted OH Leuven. Credit given where it’s due for the wins, particularly the latter, but they’re struggling against quality and that’s what they’re up against today. They were totally outclassed by Anderlecht recently in a 3-1 loss and have even been held by an inspired but inferior Zulte-Waregem side to a 0-0 draw here. Gent have some good players but their statistics are a shade flattering at the moment, in my view. They will beat most sides at home this season but the derby with Club Brugge? I’m not so sure.
Club Brugge still have work to do under Daum. They were horribly bad and predictable against Anderlecht and Mechelen but they bounced back with a resounding 3-0 win against a good Lokeren side. Since then, they’ve won 0-2 at hotshots Mons and ripped Germinal Beerschot apart in a 5-1 demolition so confidence is high at the moment. Club Brugge love confidence more than most sides as they simply can’t play without it. When they have it, though, they’re generally very hard to take on. Daum’s side was notorious for winning games by narrow margins at the start of his tenure. It seems like he’s released them from their shackles now, though, so their opponents should beware.
Club Brugge struggle the most when facing sides that pack men behind the ball. Gent don’t do that so this game should be almost ideal for Club Brugge. If the visitors approach this one correctly then their counter-attacking style should yield a positive result here. Either way, laying Gent at 5/6 appeals to me in this derby.
Verdict: Lay AA Gent at 5/6.
OGC Nice vs Paris Saint-Germain – away win at evens.
A lot of people are getting carried away with PSG and their money. I think it’s inevitable that they’ll dominate French football for years to come but they’re not world-beaters yet. In fact, they’ve got some improving to do before I view them as such.
However, I will take them to beat Nice at evens. Why? Well, PSG have match-winners and Nice don’t, basically. Nice are extremely hard-working and are hard to break through but they’re so lightweight up front that it’s unbelievable. They’ve never really replaced Remy since he left and the fact that only Stade Brestois have scored less Ligue 1 goals than they have this season speaks volumes as to why they’re struggling. Again, Nice are not easy to break through on their own turf but if you take the lead here then you’ll generally get the three points with a bit of composure and experience.
Under Ancelotti, PSG are begining to show signs of both of the above, which is useful. PSG have some terrific attacking players in their side, as we all know. They looked weak earlier this season due to shambolic defending but Ancelotti is tidying that up, day by day. His side has won three consecutive Ligue 1 games and this should be the fourth if they’re patient and clinical, which they’re gradually becoming.
Ultimately, there’s a big gap opening up in Ligue 1 and PSG are at the head of it. If they play this game their way then they’ll ultimately nick a goal and see the game out. I’d totally avoid handicaps here as the first goal will most likely be the killer either way. For me, PSG winning this game at evens is well worth it, though – they should have enough to take the lead and hold it today.
Verdict: Paris Saint-Germain to win at evens.
Atalanta Bergamo vs Lecce – lay Atalanta Bergamo at evens.
This really, really appeals to me, perhaps more than it should.
Look, I like Atalanta a lot – they’re a very spirited bunch and they’ve played some superb football this season, especially in midfield. However, this side has no depth – take key players out and they don’t have replacements. For this game, half of their regular midfield are out in the form of Cigarini and Bonaventura. Moralez and Schelotto are quality midfielders so Atalanta still have some strength there but midfield is where Atalanta win games – if they’re only operating at 50% in a key area then they’re going to struggle. They also miss Capelli at the back, not to mention number one goalkeeper Consigli, so even the return of star striker Denis from suspension may not solve all their problems. Atalanta struggle to keep eleven men on the field when things aren’t going their way as they’re full of talented but hot-headed players and that tends to jeopardise any chance they have if games don’t go their way from the start. Given that they’re missing a lot of players today, I think they’ll be a little more aggressive than normal and their lack of composure could cost them in this game, especially as there’s supposedly a lot of snow in this region and that makes conditions hard to play in as it is.
Visitors Lecce play better football than they’re given credit for, in my view, and this is the ideal platform on which to show it. They’re only missing a few squad rotation players for this game with just one notable absentee in Serbian defender Tomovic. That is a blow for Lecce but as defending isn’t a staple part of their gameplan, it’s hard to read too much into that. Lecce love to get the ball down and play it and with good passers like Grossmuller, Cuadrado, and Giacomazzi in their ranks, it’s no surprise that this side tends to cause their opponents problems when allowed too much time on the ball, especially with Obodo sat in front of the defence to mop up any mess. Old hand Di Michele up front is a wily forward and can score at any opportunity but the big news for Lecce is the return of prodigal son Bojinov after a frustrating spell in Portugal with Sporting Clube de Lisboa. He’s not in 100% condition right now but he should ultimately get back to his best at the club that raised him and that’s a massive boost for the minnows from southern Italy. Lecce are a good side when it comes to knocking the ball around and creating chances so although this is far from an easy game, I do think that they’ll have their moments against under-strength Atalanta.
I think we’ll see plenty of cards between two temperamental sides but ultimately, I can’t accept Atalanta being so short here with the above in mind so my call is to lay Atalanta at evens.
Verdict: Lay Atalanta Bergamo at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Liga de Quito, Porto, PSV Eindhoven, Real Madrid, Valencia CF, Istanbul BB.
Recommended bets:
PSG, PSV, and Real Madrid at around 7/5.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
African Nations:
Zambia vs Ivory Coast (7) 0-1
Argentinian Primera Division:
Atletico Rafaela vs Banfield (6) 1-0
Racing Club Avellaneda vs Tigre (7) 1-0
Velez Sarsfield vs Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (7) 2-1
Argentinos Juniors vs Union de Santa Fe (6) 1-0
Australian A-League:
Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar (4) 1-2
Gold Coast United vs Adelaide United (5) 1-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
Wiener Neustadt vs Rapid Vienna (4) 0-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Standard de Liege vs Anderlecht (6) 2-2, at least one red card in this game
AA Gent vs Club Brugge (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Chilean Primera Division:
Rangers vs Santiago Wanderers (5) 1-1
Antofagasta vs Universidad de Concepcion (5) 2-1
Union Espanola vs O’Higgins (7) 2-0
Universidad Catolica vs Union San Felipe (6) 2-1
Colombian Primera A:
Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (5) 1-1
Envigado vs Deportes Quindio (5) 1-0
Once Caldas Manizales vs Itagui Ditaires (7) 2-0
La Equidad Bogota vs Millonarios Bogota (6) 1-1
Cypriot Division 1:
Anorthosis Famagusta vs AEL Limassol (6) 0-0
Anagennisi Deryneia vs Alki Larnaca (5) 1-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Liga de Quito vs Olmedo Riobamba (8) 2-0
Tecnico Universitario vs Barcelona Guayaquil (5) 0-1
English Premier League:
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs West Bromwich Albion (6) 1-1
Aston Villa vs Manchester City (7) 1-2
French Ligue 1:
LOSC Lille vs Girondins de Bordeaux (6) 1-0
OGC Nice vs Paris Saint-Germain (7) 0-1
Toulouse vs Saint-Etienne (5) 1-1
German Bundesliga:
Augsburg vs Nurnberg (6) 1-1
Koln vs Hamburger SV (6) 2-1
Greek Super League:
Atromitos vs Kerkyra (7) 2-0
Doxa Dramas vs Panaitolikos (6) 1-1
Aris Salonika vs Ergotelis (7) 1-0
Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis (5) 1-0
Panathinaikos vs Xanthi (6) 1-0
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Be’er Sheva (7) 2-0
Italian Serie A:
Catania vs Genoa (6) 1-1
Atalanta Bergamo vs Lecce (4) 1-1
Internazionale vs Novara (6) 2-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Pumas UNAM vs Puebla (7) 1-0
Tijuana vs Cruz Azul (6) 1-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
FC Utrecht vs ADO Den Haag (7) 2-0
PSV Eindhoven vs De Graafschap (9) -1.5 handicap
RKC Waalwijk vs Heerenveen (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Vitesse Arnhem (7) 1-0
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Nacional Asuncion vs Tacuary (7) 1-0
Independiente FBC vs Sol de America (6) 1-0
Cerro Porteno PF vs Olimpia Asuncion (6) 1-2
Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno (7) 2-0
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Pacos de Ferreira vs Feirense (5) 1-0
Olhanense vs Rio Ave (6) 1-1
Beira-Mar vs Vitoria Guimaraes (5) 1-0
Porto vs Uniao de Leiria (9) over 2.5 goals
Singaporean S-League:
Young Lions vs Woodlands Wellington (6) 0-1
DPMM FC vs Tampines Rovers (6) 1-0
Spanish Primera Liga:
Espanyol vs Real Zaragoza (4) 1-1
Malaga vs Real Mallorca (5) 1-1
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Getafe (4) 0-1
Valencia CF vs Sporting Gijon (8) 2-0
Villarreal CF vs Granada (7) 2-0
Real Madrid vs Levante (9) -1.5 handicap
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Hercules Alicante vs Deportivo La Coruna (5) both sides to score
Girona vs Almeria (6)
Swiss Super League:
Sion vs Young Boys Bern (6) 1-1
FC Zurich vs Grasshopper Zurich (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Turkish Super Lig:
Orduspor vs Antalyaspor (5) 2-2
Istanbul BB vs Ankaragucu (8) 2-0
Samsunspor vs Eskisehirspor (6) 1-0
Manisaspor vs Bursaspor (5) 0-1
Karabukspor vs Fenerbahce (7) 1-2
Welsh Premier League:
Neath Athletic vs Bala Town (7) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!