Porto vs Vitoria Guimaraes
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Some of the previews today are brief; this is because I’ve been working on this (and the members post) pretty much all of saturday due to the number of games that interest me.
Today’s secondary featured game is the Portuguese Super Cup Final between Porto and Vitoria Guimaraes.
There’ll be a lot of talk ahead of this game about how Villas-Boas’ departure will affect Porto and rightfully so, I suppose – he’s definitely a very talented manager. However, something that everyone is overlooking is how many drastic transformations that Porto undergo every summer. They are forced to sell key players every year and sometimes part with their managers too and this season is no different from any other except that they’ve actually managed to keep most of their players, for a change. Hulk and Falcao still lead the line and Moutinho alongside the two Rodriguez’ (totally unsure of the plural here!) are ready to support them so for me, this is still easily the best attacking side in Portugal, irrespective of who is in charge. In fact, contrary to their usual summer, Porto have actually strengthened their squad with the signings of striker Kleber, midfielder Sandro, attacker Djalma, midfielder Castro, and a couple of youngsters up front in Iturbe and Kevin. Life very much goes on for Porto, no matter what happens, and for this I have tremendous respect to the blue-and-whites of Oporto. Porto are still a very strong attacking side – all that has to be proven with their new boss is to how much Porto fight when the chips are down or when they’re already winning a game – those were the two areas that Villas-Boas earned his reputation the most, in my opinion.
Vitoria Guimaraes are a decent side with plenty of tradition so this cup will mean something to them, no doubt. However, they’ve had their hands full with the UEFA Europa League and are likely to be a little tired due to their game with Danish outfit Midtylland a few days ago as they’re not used to having European commitments nowadays and they don’t have the depth that Porto or SL Benfica do, for example. They’ve chopped and changed a little pre-season with the departure of regular defender Ricardo being their most notable sale and the acquisition of old hand Pedro Mendes from Sporting Clube de Lisboa arguably being their biggest coup. They’re still a decent side and they’ll present stiff opposition for Porto today but when the dragons get their first goal, I think we’ll see Vitoria begin to crumble.
Therefore, the Porto win with a -1.5 handicap being priced at evens is very appealing here. Porto have no injury worries ahead of this game and they have everything to prove so Portugal’s finest really should shine here.
Verdict: Porto to beat the -1.5 handicap at evens.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Standard de Liege vs Lokeren – lay Standard de Liege at 7/5.
These are simply not good times for Liege. Witsel has gone, Defour is on his way (although nobody seems to know where yet), morale is low, and goalscoring threat is minimal. Young prodigy Cyriac is still out, playmaker Berrier is out (again), and defensive regular Opare is also out today. What’s going to happen here – Standard are going to ask Mangala to carry the defence and Tchite to carry their attack? Maybe Carcela can become Messi overnight and save their midfield, too(!) Make no mistake here – Standard are missing lots of quality for varying reasons and their displays lately have shown that quite heavily. Lokeren are a team on the up with plenty of good players and plenty of depth. They’re not easy to score against and they usually have goals in them. For me, there’s a lot of value in laying Standard today at 7/5.
Team news – Standard de Liege miss Opare, Berrier, and Cyriac.
Verdict: Lay Standard de Liege at 7/5.
Mlada Boleslav vs Slovacko – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Good home team versus a poor team tends to leave us with convincing home wins and this one should be no different. Mlada Boleslav aren’t a side to trust on the road but at home, there aren’t many better than they are. Slovacko are still pretty poor and if they intend on building their season based on their inexplicable 2-3 defeat against Marila Pribram in the first round of fixtures then they’re going to get relegated as to concede three goals in that game takes a special level of stupidity. If they do that here then they’ll get pounded, simply put. To make matters worse, they miss their best and most creative player in ex-Sparta Prague midfielder Volesak. Oh dear indeed! I can’t see Mlada Boleslav doing anything but win this one although I’ve taken the insurance of giving them a -1 Asian Handicap instead of the -1.5 European handicap as it’s still early season which is when strange things can happen so a one-goal victory isn’t impossible here.
Team news – Slovacko miss Volesak.
Verdict: Mlada Boleslav to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
OB Odense vs Brondby – home win at 9/10.
I had my reservations over OB Odense pre-season but they’ve played good football this season and their display in Athens was nothing short of magical. They’re playing really attractive attacking football and are reaping the benefits as a result. They’re scoring goals for fun and should put Brondby to the sword here. Brondby are nothing more than a name nowadays with their last convincing Superligaen campaign being a long time ago. They’re simply an average team nowadays, in my view. The loss of Mike Jensen in midfield for the next few months is going to harm them even more than their inexplicable defeat against SV Ried of Austria earlier this week in the UEFA Europa League did, in my opinion. However, just to give you an idea of why Brondby are playing so badly – aside from a lack of quality – just look at some highlights from their past few games. They don’t have enough composure or belief, in my view. True, they battered Ried for about seventy minutes earlier this week but conceding two late goals in their 4-2 win put them out of the UEFA Europa League on away goals and it’s those lapses that are costing them, not to mention a lack of work ethic. Brondby have a good record in Odense but with their current mental block and their manager’s recent exit, I can only look at the odds on the home win and be tempted to take them here.
Team news – OB Odense have doubts over Falik whereas Brondby miss Jensen and have doubts over Bernburg.
Verdict: OB Odense to win at 9/10.
HB Koge vs FC Copenhagen – away win with -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
I can’t summarise this one up more than by saying that there’s a big quality gap here, really. You could argue that we’ve not seen the best of either side this season and I couldn’t really disagree with that perspective. However, FC Copenhagen are two or three times better than newly-promoted HB Koge and given how easily today’s hosts have crumbled prior to this game against much lesser sides than FC Copenhagen, a convincing away win looks likely today at decent odds.
Verdict: FC Copenhagen to beat the -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Manchester United vs Manchester City – under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
As a United fan, I hope United win the Community Shield but I’d also point out that I don’t give a shit. Nor do the City fans and nor do the players because it’s a meaningless competition. The local derby rivalry is still present but that’s about it. Rumour has it that both clubs are actually struggling to sell tickets and who can be surprised at that?
A lot of people I know are saying that this will be a goalfest etc. but I have massive doubts about that. My reasoning for that is because the last three meetings between these two sides have all been pretty dire games that merited very few goals. Indeed, all of the goals scored between these two sides over the past year have either involved defensive error or individual brilliance and given that defensive errors are few and far between for United and City, it seems unlikely that we’ll see many goals here. United are missing playmakers for this game with Scholes retired and Carrick injured. City are missing Tevez, which halves the danger of their attack, in my view. New signing Aguero is a cracking player but only in a 4-4-2 or a 4-3-3 – if Mancini deploys him in the “Tevez” role then you won’t see City this season because they won’t get enough points away from home. If Mancini goes very un-Italian and makes City into a proper 4-4-2 then they’ll start producing a lot of overs because their full-backs are susceptible and they’ll also score more goals. Will he try that today? I doubt it, not with Aguero’s apparently blistered feet. No, I expect City to go 4-5-1 and United to do something similar with both sides doing very little to break through one another and we should see a dull game as a result.
I hope I am wrong as I’ll naturally be watching this one but that’s how all other meetings have gone and I see no reason for it to be different here. I wouldn’t touch the 1×2 market, to be honest – there’s no motivation here – but if I had to pick a winner then I’d marginally side with United purely because they’ve looked incredibly sharp in front of goal in their pre-season friendlies. Under 2.5 goals at 3/4 looks the best shout here though.
Team news – Manchester United miss Hernandez and Carrick whilst having doubts over Fletcher and Rafael da Silva whereas Manchester City miss Tevez and have doubts over Aguero.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen – away win at evens.
As has been mentioned in many places pre-season, Mainz 05 have changed a lot prior to the current Bundesliga campaign and not for the better. The likes of Holtby and Schurrle have departed and Mainz 05 are left without goalscorers and without many recognisable players. Boss Tuchel is notorious for galvanising sides and I’m sure he’ll produce more wonders with this Mainz 05 crop later this season and keep them in the division but at present, they’re a threat to nobody but themselves. They were dreadful against an average Gaz Metan Medias side over two legs (who were deprived of their best player Eric for both games) and duly went out earlier this week on penalties. I don’t think they’ll be too concerned with that but they should be tired from it. Mainz 05 have a limited squad at best, not just with quality but with depth too, so I expect them to struggle here. Leverkusen aren’t my favourite side away from home in the Bundesliga because they have an unhelpful tendency to concede stupid goals if last season is anything to go by. The absence of star goalkeeper Adler doesn’t help my confidence on that front either. However, the lack of a regular threat from the Mainz 05 side of things is very comforting and the offensive power of Leverkusen is strong with Kiessling up front and Renato Augusto behind him. Ballack is always a threat, as is the pacey Jorgensen and of course, ex-Mainz 05 starlet Schurrle, who may well bag against his old club today. Leverkusen have enough to win this one and Mainz 05 are very poor right now so evens on the away win is appealing here, even with Leverkusen missing talented winger Barnetta.
Team news – Bayer 04 Leverkusen miss Adler, Barnetta, and Oczipka.
Verdict: Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win at evens.
Kecskemeti TE vs Debreceni VSC – away win at 7/5.
I can’t really believe these odds, to be honest. KTE are a good home side because they score a lot of goals but Debreceni VSC are a lot better than they are, even in their current transitional period. They’ve smashed in eight goals in three games because Coulibaly and big Zahovaiko are hitting it off well and sides aren’t dealing with that. Additionally, there are no European commitments for Debreceni VSC this season so they can focus entirely on their Soproni Liga campaign. Mbengono, Bodi, and Kulcsar have impressed in midfield and Debreceni VSC look twice the side they were last year already. The hosts have looked a bit lost so far, to be honest – maybe it’s to do with those internal disagreements/that friction we saw a couple of weeks ago? I’m not sure. They’re not taking their chances like normal, however, and that is harming KTE because they cannot defend against anyone. For me, taking the away win for the superior side at 7/5 is very appealing here.
Verdict: Debreceni VSC to win at 7/5.
AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven – away win with draw no bet at 4/5.
AZ have a bit of a goalkeeping crisis ahead of this heavyweight clash with Argentina number one Romero expecting to move on and back-up goalkeeper Didliuca still struggling with injuries. AZ are still a decent side and aren’t easy to beat in Alkmaar but no regular goalkeeper won’t help their defence here at all against a good PSV side. Additionally, holding midfielder Wernbloom is absent so a large portion of AZ’s defensive game is in question here. They sold star attacker Sigthorsson to AFC Ajax Amsterdam pre-season, which will affect their goalscoring capabilities, and also sold star defender Moreno and regular midfielder Schaars pre-season. This AZ side is definitely not the same as last year and although I am impressed by their signing of powerful American hitman Altidore – I’m a big fan of his, to be honest – I still don’t see them doing much against the likes of PSV right now. PSV coped with the sale of Hungarian star Dzsudszak by signing Feyenoord Rotterdam prodigy Wijndalum pre-season and they also raided FC Utrecht for promising youngster Strootman and Belgian attacker Mertens. Aside from the sale of Dzsudszak, they’ve not really made any significant losses and who knows – if Lens can complete a full campaign this time around and Berg can begin to fulfill his potential then we may even see PSV lift the title this year. Either way, even with box-to-box midfielder Hutchinson out today, I still don’t see them losing this one against a new AZ Alkmaar side. For me, there’s value on the away win with draw no bet cover at 4/5.
Team news – AZ Alkmaar miss Romero, Didliuca, and Wernbloom whereas PSV Eindhoven miss Reis, Hutchinson, Wuytens, and Labyad.
Verdict: PSV Eindhoven to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Nafta Lendava vs Olimpija Ljubljana – away win at 9/10.
Olimpija have impressed me every time I’ve seen them this season. They play good attacking football and score goals. Nafta Lendava have zero ability to defend and have lost against worse sides than Olimpija this season without any great ceremony. Indeed, it took a derby win with newly-promoted Mura 05 to give Nafta Lendava any points at all and I doubt the giants that they’re facing today will be any more generous. I’m a shade concerned about Olimpija having played too many games in a short space of time but they’re still some way better than Nafta Lendava, in my view, and thus the away win at 9/10 appeals to me today.
Team news – Olimpia Ljubljana miss Sretenovic.
Verdict: Olimpija Ljubljana to win at 9/10.
Accumulator fodder:
BATE Borisov, Club Brugge, Santos, Litex Lovech, Colo Colo, Mlada Boleslav, FC Copenhagen, Liga de Quito, KooTeePee Kotka, Bayern Munich, Ferencvaros, KR Reykjavik, Gamba Osaka, Skonto Riga, Ekranas Panevezys, Iskra-Stali, AFC Ajax Amsterdam, Valerenga Oslo, Celtic, Armed Forces, Shakhtar Donetsk, Dynamo Kiev.
Recommended bets:
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
International Friendly:
El Salvador vs Venezuela (6) 0-1 (played in USA)
Argentinian Primera Division:
Newell’s Old Boys vs Estudiantes de la Plata (5) 1-1
San Lorenzo de Almagro vs Atletico Lanus (6) 0-0
Olimpo vs Boca Juniors (6) 2-2
Tigre vs Racing Club Avellaneda (5) 2-1
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
BATE Borisov vs Belshina Bobriusk (8) 2-0
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Standard de Liege vs Lokeren (4) 1-2
Sint-Truiden vs Club Brugge (5) 1-2
Westerlo vs Kortrijk (6) 0-0
Brazilian Serie A:
Santos vs Ceara (8) 2-0
Internacional vs Cruzeiro (6) 2-1
Atletico Paranaense vs Corinthians (5) 1-1
America Mineiro vs Fluminense (4) 0-1
Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama (6) 2-1
Avai vs Sao Paulo (5) 1-1
Bahia vs Atletico Goianiense (7) 1-0
Bulgarian A PFG:
Litex Lovech vs Beroe (8) 2-0
Lokomotiv Sofia vs CSKA Sofia (7) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Chilean Primera Division:
Deportes Iquique vs Cobreloa (5) 1-1
La Serena vs Universidad de Concepcion (6) 2-1
O’Higgins vs Santiago Morning (7) 1-0
Colo Colo vs Santiago Wanderers (8) 2-0
Croatian Prva Liga:
Karlovac vs Split (6) 0-0
Hajduk Split vs Rijeka (6) 1-0
Varteks Varazdin vs Zadar (6) 1-0
Cypriot Super Cup:
Omonia Nicosia vs APOEL Nicosia (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Bohemians 1905 vs Viktoria Plzen (4) 1-1
Mlada Boleslav vs Slovacko (8) 2-0
Sparta Prague vs Jablonec (7) 2-1
Czech Republic Druha Liga:
Slovan Varnsdorf vs Vlasim (6)
Banik Most vs Brno (5)
Danish Superligaen:
Midtylland vs Lyngby (6) 2-1
HB Koge vs FC Copenhagen (8) 0-2
Nordsjaelland vs Silkeborg (6) 1-1
OB Odense vs Brondby (6) 2-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Deportivo Cuenca vs Deportivo Quito (6) 0-1
Manta vs Imbabura (6) 1-0
El Nacional Quito vs Emelec Guayaquil (5) 1-1
Espoli Cayambe vs LDU Loja (6) 2-1
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Olmedo Riobamba (7) 1-0
Liga de Quito vs Independiente (8) 2-0
English Championship:
West Ham United vs Cardiff City (6)
English Community Shield;
Manchester United vs Manchester City (6) 1-0
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Honka Espoo vs KuPS Kuopio (5) 2-2
IFK Mariehamn vs VPS Vaasa (7) 2-0
MyPa Anjalankoski vs TPS Turku (6) 2-1
RoPS Rovaniemi vs Haka Valkeakoski (5) 0-0
Finnish Ykkonen:
FC Espoo vs KPV Kokkola (5)
FC Lahti vs AC Oulu (5)
KooTeePee Kotka vs Hameenlinna (8)
French Ligue 1:
Dijon FCO vs Stade Rennais (5) 0-1
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Saint-Etienne (7) 1-0
German Bundesliga:
Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (7) 1-2
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Moenchengladbach (8) over 2.5 goals
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Ferencvaros vs Pecsi MFC (8) 2-0
Ujpest vs Paksi SE (7) 2-1
Kecskemeti TE vs Debreceni VSC (7) 1-2
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Valur Reykjavik (5) 0-1
Stjarnan Gardabaer vs Thor Akureyi (7) 2-0
KR Reykjavik vs Vikingur Reykjavik (8) over 2.5 goals
UMF Grindavik vs Breidablik Kopavogur (6) 0-1
FH Hafnarfjordur vs Keflavik (7) 1-0
Fram Rekyjavik vs Fylkir Reykjavik (6) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Irish Premier League:
St.Patrick’s Athletic vs UCD (4) 1-1
Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers (5) 2-1
Japanese J-League:
Gamba Osaka vs Avispa Fukuoka (8) 2-0
Nagoya Grampus vs Jubilo Iwata (7) 1-0
Omiya Ardija vs Vegalta Sendai (5) 1-1
Latvian Virsliga:
FC Jurmala vs Daugava Daugavpils (7) 0-2
RFS/Olimps Riga vs Skonto Riga (9) over 2.5 goals
Jelgava vs Liepajas Metalurgs (7) 1-2
Lithuania A Lyga:
Siauliai vs Dainava (7) 2-0
Zagiris Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole (5) 0-1
Tauras Taurage vs Ekranas Panevezys (8) 0-2
Macedonian First League:
Shkendija 79 vs 11 Oktomvri (4) 1-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Toluca vs Atlas (7) 2-1
Puebla vs Jaguares (7) 1-0
Moldovan Divizia Nationala:
Iskra-Stali vs Costuleni (8) 2-0
Dutch Eredivisie:
AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven (6) 1-2
De Graafschap vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (8) over 2.5 goals
ADO Den Haag vs Vitesse Arnhem (6) 1-2
NAC Breda vs Twente Enschede (5) 1-1
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Aalesund FK vs Odd Grenland Skien (6) 1-0
Brann Bergen vs Stromsgodset (5) 1-1
Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 (7) 2-0
Valerenga Oslo vs Sogndal (8) 2-0
Viking Stavanger vs Tromso (6) 2-1
Rosenborg BK vs Molde FK (4) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Nacional Asuncion vs General Caballero (7) 2-0
Independiente FBC vs Sol de America (5) 0-0
Sportivo Luqueno vs Cerro Porteno (6) 0-1
Olimpia Asuncion vs 3 de Febrero (7) 2-0
Peruvian Primera Division:
Cienciano vs Melgar FBC (7) 2-0
Union Comercio vs Juan Aurich (5) 1-1
Sporting Cristal vs Sport Boys (7) 2-0
Alianza Atletico vs Alianza Lima (6) 0-0
Universidad Cesar Vallejo vs Universidad San Martin (5) 2-2
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Slask Wroclaw vs LKS Lodz (7) 2-0
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warsaw (6) 1-2
Polish Liga 1:
Kolejarz Stroze vs Flota Swinoujscie (6)
Sandecja Nowy Sacz vs Arka Gdynia (5)
Wisla Plock vs Nieciecza (4)
Portuguese Super Cup:
Porto vs Vitoria Guimaraes (8) 2-0
Russian Premier League:
Amkar Perm’ vs FK Krasnodar (6) 1-0
Spartak Nal’chik vs Rubin Kazan’ (6) 0-1
Terek Grozny vs Spartak Moscow (4) 0-1
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Krylya Sovetov Samara (7) 2-0
Scottish Premier League:
Aberdeen vs Celtic (8) 0-2
Motherwell vs Hearts (5) 1-1
Singaporean S-League:
Armed Forces vs Young Lions (8) 2-0
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Slovan Bratislava vs Spartak Trnava (7) 2-0
Senica vs MSK Zilina (5) 0-1
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Nafta Lendava vs Olimpija Ljubljana (7) 1-2
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Syrianska Sodertalje vs Helsingborg (7) 0-1
Halmstad vs IFK Norrkoping (5) 1-0
Orebro vs BK Hacken Goteborg (6) 2-1
Elfsborg Boras vs Kalmar FF (7) 2-0
Djurgarden vs GAIS Goteborg (5) 2-2
Swedish Superettan:
Jonkopings Sodra vs Qviding Goteborg (7)
Angelholm vs Vasteras (7)
Falkenberg vs Brommapojkarna (5)
Varnamo vs Brage (5)
Osters vs Assyriska Sodertalje (5)
Swiss Super League:
Luzern vs Young Boys Bern (6) 1-2
Thun vs Neuchatel Xamax (7) 1-0
FC Zurich vs Grasshopper Zurich (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Swiss Challenge League:
Vaduz vs Stade Nyonnais (7)
Ukrainian Premier League:
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih (8) 2-0
Dynamo Kiev vs Karpaty Lviv (8) 2-1
Vorskla Poltava vs Arsenal Kiev (6) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!