Portugal vs Brazil
FreeCongratulations to those who backed my recommendation of Italy to not make it out of the group at 11/2 pre-tournament. It seems only Portugal will escape their group out of those I’ve said won’t and that’s because of a bizarre 7-0 win against North Korea so I’m quite pleased, really – hope you all made a packet as a result!
Today’s featured game is the samba match between Portugal and Brazil in the World Cup. Portugal’s 7-0 hammering of North Korea last match will have undoubtedly had the idiots purring over their chances to lift the World Cup or even make a legitimate challenge. I’m expecting Portugal to be brought back down to earth by a creative Brazil side, however, despite this being arguably Brazil’s “worst” sides in the past twenty years or so.
I choose to read far more into Portugal’s displays en mass instead of their one-off victory over North Korea last match. What I gather from that assessment is that Portugal simply do not score enough goals and don’t defend well enough. Portugal’s midfield, on its day, is exquisite – that simply cannot be denied. The creativity and flair of Simao and Ronaldo – and even Danny – is essential in Portugal’s tactics and the energy of Meireles in the centre of the park is just as important, something that is often underestimated by the masses. The experience of Tiago, Pedro Mendes, and Deco, as well as the emerging talent of Sporting Clube de Lisboa holding midfielder Miguel Veloso, all complete a very strong Portuguese midfield that can wreak havoc given chance. However, Portugal tend to over-rely on talisman Ronaldo and as a result their overall football suffers because players inevitably become more lazy. If Ronaldo then has a bad game, the team as a whole looks vulnerable. Why? Well, Portugal don’t take their chances well enough when they’re in control of a game because Liedson and Hugo Almeida are not world-beaters as attackers – Liedson is decent and Hugo Almeida is really quite poor. Consider Portugal without the ball, for instance – if they win it back, who do they play it to to hold up the ball? Nobody there can – they have to feed it to Ronaldo and hope for magic. Meanwhile, in defence, the lack of pace at the back and the relatively average full-backs of Portugal are often exploited and as a result, it’s a real Achilles heel for them. We also see a rather average set of goalkeepers too, which is another problem for Portugal’s uncertain defence. All in all, we have a superb midfield but a rather average rest of the team, which will work ok most of the time but certainly not all of the time, something I expect to see enforced today.
Portugal struggled against the physical Ivory Coast in their opening game, which is definitely worth noting as it does lend weight to my claims about the ease with which Portugal can be dealt with. They played well against a resilient North Korea side, no questions asked, although I would say that they scored two goals at key times and capitalised on low morale. Nonetheless, credit given where it is due and if the over-reaction of that result is responsible for such generous odds on the Brazil win here today, then I’m very grateful for this occurrence! Portugal don’t need more than a draw here to reach the latter stages of the competition where they’ll inevitably be eliminated by Spain but to be honest, a defeat should still see them through thanks to their excellent goal difference.
The above is really quite fortunate as I expect Brazil to win this game. They’ve already qualified for the second round so some people may question Brazil’s motivation. Well, I’d point out that Brazil are facing their “parent country” and thus we have something of a derby here, which does allow for high motivation. Most notably here, Brazil will miss Kaka, which is naturally a blow. However, I don’t view it as being as big a blow as some do as he’s not been as instrumental to his team thus far as others have so I won’t read too much into it, although naturally that could come back to bite me in the ass! Brazil still have wonderful attacking options but their biggest wealth in this tournament is a rare one for their side; defensive experience. Look at their back-line – Cesar in goal, Juan and Lucio in the middle, Maicon and Bastos at full-backs. There’s a massive level of experience and ability there and its one that people don’t pay enough attention to. Brazil occasionally lapse in concentration at the back and concede silly goals but overall, they’re a very hard side to beat. Coach Dunga has arguably stifled the Brazilian spirit with his atypical two holding midfielders but that should benefit them massively in this game as Portugal try to dominate midfield with their attractive 4-5-1 formation. Brazil need Elano to be on his game today in the absence of Kaka and Robinho has to take his chances instead of spitting his dummy out but the potential is definitely there for both of these things to happen. I expect Ramires to take the place of Kaka, who brings experience in Portuguese football and rapid pace to the Brazil side, which are both very useful. Luis Fabiano, despite being a sporadic performer, will be buoyant following his double against Ivory Coast last match, so you’d be a braver man than me to back against him scoring today. What has impressed me most of all about Brazil, however, is that they’re scoring goals without playing well. They certainly don’t play as well now as they used to and they do lack flair on occasion but what they lack in the afore-mentioned, they make up for with efficiency and potency, which is equally as dangerous, if not moreso.
Are Brazil superior to Portugal? In my eyes – without doubt. These two sides met a couple of years ago in a friendly in Brazil and Brazil destroyed Portugal 6-2 and I’d even argue that Portugal’s side was better then than it is now! Brazil really should be too good for Portugal today and they’re in a position that they love to be in whereby their opponent needs the points far more than they do. That in itself leaves Portugal precariously placed today and I think they’re going to suffer as a result.
With the above in mind, a lot of bets interest me today, so feel free to take your pick and decide your own luck! I like Brazil to win the game outright at 6/5 because they’re simply better than Portugal. I like over 2.5 goals because both sides score goals in games like this where defence is not a focal point and Portugal need to score whereas Brazil almost always score anyway! Lastly, I also like the idea of both sides scoring because Brazil, for some reason, enjoy conceding a token goal but always manage to take their chances in outstanding fashion with their potency coming from all over the park. I don’t normally feel comfortable backing Portugal to score but they’re facing an attack-minded side that is occasionally susceptible at the back so I do think Portugal will score today too.
All in all, this should be a good game of football that is well worth watching and I expect plenty of goals and good bets as a result so good luck guys!
Verdict: Brazil to win at 6/5, both teams to score at 9/10, over 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
North Korea vs Ivory Coast – over 4.5 yellow cards at 29/20, one red card at 15/4.
My thanks to loyal TFT user Spatgo for the inspiration behind this bet as he awakened my interest in this type of bet a little while ago when he pointed out that referee Mallenco was very quick with his cards. I’m now looking to re-create that bet and hopefully make it as profitable!
If you didn’t watch the Germany vs Serbia game then I must advise you to do so by whatever method possible to understand why I like this bet so much. Spanish referee Mallenco is either an atrocious referee or the other referees are atrocious. Either way, there’s an inbalance because he’s very strict on every possible foul in a game of football and other referees are more lax. FIFA really need to do something about this emerging gulf in refereeing standards because to “respect the official”, the official must have a common aim to reach to before he can be judged and there is frankly no common aim to go for because each referee plays the game differently. I generally side with other referees because Mallenco’s style is irritating; he interrupts the flow of the game and books players rather unnecessarily, in my view. However, he dished out nine yellow cards and one red in a non-violent game between Germany and Serbia so we can only watch in amazement to see what he does here as he does have a history of booking and sending off players for little to no reason at all.
I can’t focus much on the two sides here because it frankly doesn’t matter who is playing; this referee is a nutcase! I think the tension of this game between a North Korea side allegedly playing for their lives (even though they’re already out!) and an Ivory Coast side that has to win by a large amount today should be quite strong and thus the opportunity for bookings should be there, particularly with ham-handed Zokora on the field of play. I’m not keen on betting on the game directly as although I believe the Ivorians should win, I feel they’re a bit wasteful in front of goal despite the mighty Drogba and I also believe that the referee will interrupt the flow of the game too much for Ivory Coast to run riot here. I’d say 0-2 as a scoreline but frankly North Korea are capable of stealing a goal and this referee can destroy the game in an instant so I don’t like the handicap option here, thus ruling out any real value on the outcome of the game, in my eyes.
However, I do like the markets on the cards as I feel that over 4.5 cards at 29/20 and for there to be one red card at 15/4 represents terrific value today and if it comes in, we must all fly to Sweden and buy our friend Spatgo some beers!
Verdict: over 4.5 yellow cards at 29/20, one red card at 15/4.
Switzerland vs Honduras – Switzerland to win to nil at 13/10.
Again, this game doesn’t offer much in the way of value for me. It’s an important game as the Swiss need a win and the Hondurans would like one to not exit this tournament in complete embarassment. A lot of people have been purring over the Swiss as a real threat in this group thanks to two very good displays against Spain and Chile respectively, and fair enough – they played very well in those games. However, this is a very different game and one that Switzerland hate to play in because they’re the favourites. They love being underdogs and defending en mass but that isn’t an option for them here so we get to see how ineffectual Switzerland’s attack can truly be. I don’t forsee many goals from the Swiss unless Frei turns it on but I do think they’ll scrape at least one goal from somewhere because Honduras are bad enough defensively to allow it to happen. However, please bear in mind that Switzerland are not a prolific goalscoring side – I’d not even back them with the -1.75 goal handicap here because I’m so concerned about their inability in front of goal! Honduras will give them at least one goal, however, I feel, which should be enough. I know that the Swiss need to complete with Chile’s goal difference to qualify for the second stage so they can’t sit back and defend their lead but I don’t think that Honduras offer enough in attack to trouble Hitzfeld’s well-marshalled defence, even without lynchpin Senderos. Honduras don’t have enough in attack as long as Suazo is contained so backing a Swiss win here without Honduras scoring intrigues me as the odds are decent enough to take a chance on.
Again, I must stress that I do not rate the Swiss attack (cue an 8-0 win for Switzerland!) so I cannot endorse taking them on the handicap to win this one – the odds are good because it’s unlikely to happen! What I do like, however, is the idea of the Swiss edging this one in a fairly uninteresting encounter so backing them to win without conceding at 13/10 looks a decent bet today.
Verdict: Switzerland to to nil at 13/10.
Chile vs Spain – both sides to score at 9/10, over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
This should be a fascinating game of football because I rate Chile as a kind of “mini-Spain” in their footballing style, midfield dominance, and general lack of concern for other areas of the field! I think Chile will give Spain a much better game here than most other people do because they’re a very good side when it comes to keeping the ball. Chile won’t sit back and defend because they can’t do it; they’re not good enough at it so they’ll do what they always do and attack. Chile have great pace and creativity in attack so don’t expect for one minute for Spain to have it all their own way here; they don’t have the most convincing of records against other hispanic nations, Spain – anyone else remember their match with Paraguay some time ago when they were heavy favourites?! Good old Gamarra did the damage that day so don’t over-estimate the Spanish or underestime the Chileans here. Nonetheless, the fact does remain that the Spanish are unequestionably the better of the two sides. They’ve got better players, more experience, and more strength in-depth. Spain’s main strength over Chile is their strikers because Chile, for all of their creativity, don’t score enough goals. Spain, however, do score goals, and their 2-0 win against Honduras last match could have and probably should have been 6-0, although I’ll chalk that one down to a loss of confidence after defeat against the Swiss.
Spain have to win this game; Chile don’t. Therefore, expect predominant Spanish possession and swift Chilean counter-attacks. I’m sensing a lot of goals here because neither side has been impressive defensively thus far, even if Chile have kept two clean sheets – statistics can be misleading sometimes! Spain’s defence has looked weak when tested so a strong Suazo, who plays football for Real Zaragoza in Spain, should have plenty of opportunities today. The pace of Sanchez and Gonzalez will be key for Chile, whereas the maraudering full-backs of Spain will play a pivotal role in breaking Chile apart. Del Bosque needs to keep his 4-4-2 formation or I fear for the Spanish as Villa is not good enough up front on his own – don’t be taken in by his impressive display last match! Look why he had the space to do what he did – Torres took the markers away! Full credit to Villa, mind you – he did take the chances well, which is precisely what he needs to do today.
With all of the above in mind, I expect both sides to score today. I’ve no doubts that Spain will score; Chile aren’t good enough in defence to keep them out. I’m a little unsure about a Chilean goal because they’re not always the most clinical of sides. However, Spain’s defence has been poor so I’ll give them their chances, particularly as they have the useful counter-attack option here. If both sides are going to score, as I suspect, and Spain have to win, taking over 2.5 goals is the next logical step in this betting process, so I recommend that bet too.
Lastly, I would urge caution before throwing Spain in to boost accumulators – they’re not a dead certainty to win this game despite their superiority and I don’t think this game will be as one-sided as most people do. I expect a close encounter because some of the Chileans have or do play football in Spain – Gonzalez, Fernandez, Suazo etc. so they know what they’re up against here. I do think Spain will win here but for me, the value is in goals scored rather than the winner.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 9/10, over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Shamrock Rovers, Young Lions.
Recommended bets:
There are too many potential outcomes in today’s games that I don’t like so I wouldn’t touch any multiples – keep to singles and perhaps doubles at most!
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
World Cup:
North Korea vs Ivory Coast (7) 0-2
Portugal vs Brazil (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Switzerland vs Honduras (6) 1-0
Chile vs Spain (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Selfoss (7) 2-1
Irish Premier League:
Bohemians vs Dundalk (6) 2-1
Bray Wanderers vs Shamrock Rovers (7) 0-2
Drogheda United vs Galway United (7) 0-0
Sporting Fingal vs UCD (6) 2-1
Singaporean S-League:
Young Lions vs Albirex Niigata (8) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!