Qatar vs Uzbekistan
FreeToday’s featured game is the opening game of the Asian Cup in Qatar between hosts Qatar and Uzebekistan. Both of these two sides have been handed a lifeline because unlike the other groups in the Asian Cup, this group only has one “good side” as I would put it; the other three are average at best (despite Uzbekistan’s presentable recent past) so both sides have a decent chance of progressing to the latter stages.
In my view, that adds extra spice to this game. The game didn’t need any more spice though, to be honest – there’s already a lot of pressure on Qatar as the host nation!
In terms of quality, I find it very hard to seperate these two sides. Uzebekistan are a better attacking unit and have a presentable number of players plying their trade in countries other than Uzbekistan, a good number of which are in Eastern Europe (i.e. Tursunov at Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod in Russia, Ibrohimov at Bohemians 1905 in Czech Republic, Shatskikh at Arsenal Kiev). All of Qatar’s players barring (Hussein Yasser of Zamalek in Egypt) ply their trade in Qatar so they’ll need to adapt quickly here. However, as the host nation, they do have the home advantage so this tie is finely poised, in my view.
Qatar’s team is led by French boss Bruno Metsu, whom you may recall as the boss to guide Senegal to an impressive World Cup campaign back in 2002. Since then, he’s spent all of his time in the Middle East as both a club and international manager so he knows the area, the teams, and the players very well indeed. Metsu managed United Arab Emirates for two years before taking the job as manager of Qatar and his side does reflect his well-organised tactical approach with defence being Qatar’s strongest point. However, they do lack in front of goal, more often than not as they fail to take their chances far more than they convert them. In fact, Qatar have failed to score for two consecutive friendlies in recent times as they’ve prepared for this tournament but boss Metsu is not disheartened by the fact as he’s declared himself “pleased” at his side’s recent displays. Metsu has pointed out that he’s had his team together for a month so they should be capable of producing a united front and doing the host nation proud in a tournament that frankly has a lot of superior teams to theirs. Therefore, Metsu will have to rely on Qatar’s more experienced and more talented players and I think it’s fair to say that experienced striker Soria has a large say in what happens regarding the Qatari side. You could argue that the name Sebastian Soria is not exactly Arabic and you’d be completely right; Soria is a Uruguayan striker that was nationalised and has played nearly fifty times for his new country already. Soria is a decent striker with an eye for goal and if Qatar are to score then it’ll be largely on his shoulders to do so. However, the most worrying factor for Qatar is that although Soria is only twenty-seven years old, he is actually one of the more experienced players in the side with many of his team-mates being younger than he is. Indeed, Qatar appear to have one of the youngest sides in the tournament with only midfielder Montezine over the age of thirty. Interestingly enough, Fabio Cesar Montezine is another nationalised Qatari international with the playmaker having been born in Brazil and emerged through the Sao Paulo youth academy and he’ll undoubtedly be integral to Qatari’s attack as there is a distinct lack of experience in age and experience outside of Qatar in the team. Midfielder Quaye is an interesting selection for the Qatar squad with the Ghanaian-born midfielder having only played a handful of times for the country but his relentless energy has convinced Metsu to call him up to his Asian Cup squad. Aside from the afore-mentioned, Metsu has only a few players with a decent number of caps – Al-Ghanim, Al-Bloushi, Mohammed, and Siddiq being the most capped. Most of those players are defence-orientated so you can see just why Qatar’s defence is the strongest part of their game. However, sides will have to be wary of Montezine and Soria as the South Americans can punish them.
Opponents Uzbekistan will be aware of that but I don’t think that they’ll be greatly concerned, to be honest with you. Defence hasn’t been a strong point of the Uzbeks for some years now but their attack is – well, when playing the right opponent! They’ve played friendlies against European sides over the past twelve months and are often caught short with their lack of experience and ability costing them. However, in Asia, this side is very much capable of scoring goals and should be taken seriously from that angle. A good side will beat Uzbekistan because their defence is mediocre at best (and they’re missing a lot of defenders through injury!) but I wouldn’t classify Qatar as a better side so Uzbekistan will fancy their chances here. Boss Abramov has bizarrely opted to bring just three strikers to this tournament despite their strength being in attack but happily, he was forced to include another striker following an injury to defender Krushelnitskiy. Indeed, his withdrawal was one of a number of defensive concerns for Abramov, so much so that they’re considering using playmaker Ahmedov in central defence in this game, amusingly! However, a side with lethal target man Shatskikh in their ranks shouldn’t be too concerned defensively as they stand a good chance of scoring more goals than their opponents with this experienced striker in attack. Although he now plays for Arsenal Kiev, you may remember Shatskikh from his days at Dynamo Kiev, especially as he was signed to replace Andriy Shevchenko. Shatskikh is the country’s most decorated player as he’s arguably the finest player that they’ve ever had, as his strike record of thirty-two goals in fifty international games indicates all too well. Shatskikh has played on the European stage and in good domestic leagues for the vast majority of his career so you can expect some very experienced and influential displays from the thirty-two year old striker, especially from an aerial perspective! Uzbekistan need him to stand a chance but they do also need the relatively experienced Geynrikh, who brings the pace to Uzbekistan’s attack. You may recall him as one of CSKA Moscow’s youth products a few years ago but he’s now back in Uzbekistan with Uzbek giants Pakhtakor Tashkent and the two form a solid attack. They have the experience of Georgian-born Kapadze to support them but most importantly, Uzbekistan bring a very experienced side to this competition, especially with Nesterov between the posts. A lot of their players are at the top two clubs in Uzebekistan – millionaires Bunyodkor and Pakhtakor Tashkent – and thus frequently compete in the Asian Champions League, the former of which usually progresses quite well. There’s plenty of attacking ability in this squad and if it’s not dealt with then they will score goals. However, their defence is amongst the worst in the tournament, in my view, and that will cost them ultimately, especially with their injury problems at the moment.
All in all, I expect a pretty good game here. The media are calling Uzbekistan the “dark horses” of the competition but I disagree; I think they’ve missed their best chance and are now left with the remnants of what was arguably one of their finest sides. Uzbekistan have started to do well in the Asian Cup over the past few years but I don’t see them progressing beyond the quarter-finals – and that’s if they make it. Uzbekistan should have too much in front of goal for Qatar to deal with today, despite Qatar’s solid defence – I just think that Uzbekistan have that cutting edge that will give them the win, especially with the hosts under severe pressure here. I think we’ll see a good number of goals in this game and although I’m not bold enough to take a win for Uzbekistan to crash the Qatari party, I do fancy both sides to score at a rather generous 11/10. Qatar haven’t scored for two consecutive friendlies but they’ve faced solid defences; they shouldn’t have that problem today though.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 11/10.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Portimonense vs Vitoria Setubal – both sides to score at 11/10.
The only other game to interest me today is this one in the Liga Sagres between newly-promoted Portimonense and relegation-threatened Vitoria Setubal. This is very much a six-pointer and given the hefty break that both sides have had, I expect an energetic and enthusiastic game between these two sides today.
From a quality perspective, I have to favour Vitoria Setubal here. However, I certainly wouldn’t write Portimonense off as they do have a knack of finding the net – well, along with not being able to defend! Statistically speaking, Portimonense have only won twice at home in the Liga Sagres this season and Setubal have won just once away from home in the Liga Sagres this season. You could even be forgiven for thinking that this game would go under 2.5 goals given the impotent nature of both sides but I personally think we’ll see a number of goals here as this is a do-or-die game for both sides. Portimonense have only kept one clean sheet this season in the Liga Sagres and that was against fellow newly-promoted outfit Beira-Mar so you can see how bad their defence actually is. However, they do know how to find the net with only Naval de Maio on the opening day of the season and SL Benfica having left Portimonense with a clean sheet so I wouldn’t write off the hosts here.
Vitoria Setubal’s record in “recent” times may not be overly flattering but the statistics don’t tell the full story there. For me, Vitoria have been playing well. They did fantastically well away from home against Porto and were beyond unfortunate to lose, conceding from a penalty that never was and missing a penalty themselves in the last minute of the game. They followed defeat in Oporto by overcoming Sporting Clube de Lisboa in the Taca de Portugal before losing the exact same fixture the following week in the Liga Sagres. Setubal have been holding their own in recent weeks, however, and I think that they’re capable of getting a result here. Aside from the unlucky defeat at Porto, Setubal have won at Maritimo Funchal in tricky Madeira in the Taca de Portugal so their away form is picking up. Let’s face it – when Setubal lose away from home, it’s rarely by a large margin because they’re a decent side defensively. Indeed, only a blip against Olhanense and a tough game against SL Benfica has seen Setubal concede more than once away from home this season. The problem is that Setubal aren’t scoring goals with just one goal scored in their last four away games, thus explaining why they lost all of them, three of which were 1-0 losses. I’d actually make a case for Setubal being a much better outfit than Portimonense, especially tactically, but it means very little without the necessary quote of goals to compliment it. However, I don’t forsee that being a problem tonight as Portimonense’s defence will gave anyone a chance so we should see an interesting game here.
Therefore, I think taking both sides to score is the way forward here. Both sides have scored for Portimonense’s last five home games in all competitions and with important midfielder Jumisse absent for this game, I was quite tempted to take the away win here as Setubal should hold any lead that they get. The absence of integral attacker Ivanildo would assist that bet but unfortunately harms my “both sides to score” selection as he’s one of their best players. However, the likes of Renatinho are there to come into the squad and they should still be able to score here as they’re at home and goalscoring is all that they do well. Therefore, both sides scoring this game looks a decent bet to me!
Team news – Portimonense miss Ivanildo, Jumisse, and Wakaso.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 11/10.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Asian Cup:
Qatar vs Uzbekistan (5) both sides to score
Baltic Champions Cup:
Skonto Riga vs Ekranas Panevezys (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Australian A-League:
Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory (7) 2-1
Italian Serie B:
Frosinone vs Livorno (5)
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Portimonense vs Vitoria Setubal (4) 1-2
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Villarreal II vs Granada (6)
Welsh Premier League:
Airbus UK vs Prestatyn Town (5) 2-2
Carmarthen Town vs Neath Athletic (7) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!