Racing Club Montevideo vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla
FreeToday’s featured game is the Copa Libertadores second leg between Racing Club Montevideo and Atletico Junior Barranquilla. Uruguayan hosts Racing hold the advantage from their impressive 2-2 draw in Colombia last week so the onus is on the Colombian visitors to make inroads tonight to stake their place in the Copa Libertadores proper.
In South American continental competition, it’s absolutely vital to understand the massive power that the home advantage holds over other continents. South America easily has some of the biggest contradictions geographically and those effects can really damage sides. For instance, consider the idea that for every one breath you take in say Argentina – you’d need to take three breaths in Bolivia. That might not sound like a lot but if you go to play your football there without the adequate preperations (usually weeks are recommended for your body to adjust) then it can drastically affect the performance of an away side. Similarly, if a Peruvian side travelled down to take on a Uruguayan side then they’d have to breathe a lot more slowly, which again affects performance. Not only that but few sides from each country consistently appear in their continental competitions because many big clubs from Europe poach young starlets from South American clubs so the better sides in the country can often vary from one season to the next, thus leaving potential newcomers with little continental experience travelling to nightmarish away games and being exposed by the conditions. All in all – the home advantage can often play a key part in these games so bear that in mind for future reference.
Hosts Racing Club Montevideo did the unthinkable by going to Colombia and taking a draw off a side that takes the vast majority of their points in any competition at home. The 2-2 draw leaves the tie in the balance somewhat but the away goals rule favours the Uruguayans. Helpfully, the Uruguayan FA postponed Racing’s game at home to Fenix last weekened to give the hosts time to recover from their trip to Colombia so Racing have a fully fit squad ahead of their game tonight.
Visitors Atletico Junior Barranquilla not only had to battle ferociously to take a draw from their home encounter with Racing Club Montevideo last week and score a late equaliser but also had to endure a tough away game against Deportivo Pereira at weekend. The Colombian FA are not as helpful as the Uruguayan FA are, seemingly! Atletico have only had four days to prepare for their lengthy trip south to enter a game which they must win to qualify so I think they’re already going to struggle with a tired squad. As I’ve mentioned previously in this post, geography in South America plays a big part and this is emphasised with the general record of Colombian sides in Uruguay with no Colombian side having won here in the Copa Libertadores since 2005. Atletico’s big problem ahead of this game, however, is that they’re inept defensively. They proved this perfectly in their most recent Futbol Profesional campaign by losing seven out of nine away games and drawing twice. I cannot see how a trip to Uruguay would be easier than any of those games so I think we’re going to see a really tough game for Atletico tonight.
Although quality-wise there’s little between these two sides, hosts Racing have the advantage of not needing to win this game, thus being able to utilise the counter-attack, which has already proved successful in the first leg. They’ve got a strong home advantage and have had a few days rest longer than their Colombian visitors. Their visitors are tired, poor on the road, and frankly don’t have enough to win this game although that’s what they have to do so for me the home win looks a good bet tonight.
Verdict: Racing Club Montevideo to win at 6/5.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
My only other tip of today is below:
Chacarita Juniors vs River Plate – home win at 17/10.
Hosts Chacarita Juniors really aren’t a very good side. In fact, I rate them amongst the worst in the Primera Division. Nonetheless, I still think they’ll do the business tonight. They won their opening Clausura game 2-0 away to Tigre, who are supposedly as bad as each other so Chacarita have already claimed an advantage of their fellow relegation strugglers, which will have given them a boost at this early stage of the season. Aside from the above, Chacarita were surprisingly competent at home in the Apertura with just four defeats in nine games, winning three times, and drawing twice. Only a handful of sides conceded less goals at home than Chacarita altough their finishing tended to let them down more often than not. However, Chacarita had enough to overcome a more illustrious but extremely troubled River Plate and I can see a similar scenario tonight.
I’d love to say that I considered River Plate to be twice the side that Chacarita Juniors are but I just can’t say that and mean it. They’re twice as big and are my favourite Argentinian side but they’ve got big problems with quality – well, their lack of it, basically. They opened their Clausura campaign by losing at home to Banfield. Banfield are a good side and had an extraordinary Apertura last time out but River Plate should not be losing that game – period. River Plate are looking a tad short on creativity and in front of goal, which is partially why they lost here last year. They lost six out of ten away games in the Apertura last time out and don’t appear to have improved since then so look susceptible to taste defeat again.
Although I do think River Plate are at least marginally better than Chacarita Juniors at the present time, I have to favour the hosts from a momentum perspective and their home advantage, particularly with River Plate looking goal-shy at the moment.
Verdict: Chacarita Juniors to win at 17/10.
Recommended bet – Racing Club Montevideo, Feyenoord Rotterdam, and San Lorenzo de Almagro at 6/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Copa Libertadores:
Racing Club Montevideo vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (7) 2-1
Argentinian Primera Division:
Chacarita Juniors vs River Plate (5) 1-0
San Lorenzo de Almagro vs Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (8) 2-1
Independiente vs Atletico Tucuman (8) 2-0
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Charleroi vs Standard de Liege (5) 1-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
RKC Waalwijk vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (8) over 2.5 goals
Singaporean S-League:
Albirex Niigata vs Home United (5) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!