Real Potosi vs Cruzeiro
FreeToday’s featured game is the Copa Libertadores encounter between Bolivia’s Real Potosi and Brazil’s Cruzeiro. Hosts Real Potosi will have to use their geographical advantage against Cruzeiro today because they haven’t got a hope in hell if they take on the Brazilians man to man!
Bolivia is a hellish place to play an away game due to the severe altitude. However, Real Potosi haven’t played a competitive game since mid-December and that’s sure to affect them as they’re hosting a much better side than they are. What I tend to find with Bolivian clubs is that there’s not much quality difference between any of them because the league is so poor. Don’t get me wrong here – Real Potosi will battle for every ball as if their lives depend upon it – but they’re just not good enough to take something from this game. Real Potosi competed in the Copa Libertadores last year in the Preliminary Stage but were annihlated by Cruzeiro’s Serie A rivals Palmeiras with Palmeiras winning both legs of the tie convincingly.
Visitors Cruzeiro were something of a home side in Serie A last season but are still a very good outfit indeed. However, let’s not forget that last year’s Copa Libertadores runners-up Cruzeiro are unbeaten in four away games in the competition and enjoy making life difficult for their opponents. No doubt Cruzeiro will have bitter memories of their 5-1 thrashing here by Real Potosi a couple of years ago and I’m sure they’ll be additionally motivated because of that. Cruzeiro played their first competitive game since December on the 20th January as they annihlated Uberlandia in their Mineiro State Championship so Cruzeiro are a tad more prepared than Real Potosi for this game.
Overall, Cruzeiro are twice the side that Real Potosi are and I expect that to show tonight. It’s not mid-season in Brazil so there’s no hectic schedule to affect Cruzeiro’s preparations for a lengthy trip up towards space. Cruzeiro will want to make a good impression following their disappointment in the Copa Libertadores final last season and they have the perfect opportunity to do so tonight against a side that they’re a lot better than. For me, the away win has far more value than it should so I’m happy to call the away win!
Verdict: Cruzeiro to win at 7/4.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Juan Aurich vs Estudiantes Tecos – home win at 7/5.
Juan Aurich of Peru are making their first appearance in the Copa Libertadores since the 60’s if I’m not much mistaken and will be keen to make a good start for obvious reasons! Juan Aurich are a decent side with a pretty good home record – domestically at least – so should prove an adequate opponent for their Mexican opponents today. Peru is one of the higher countries in South America so this trip is far from welcome for Estudiantes Tecos, particularly as this venue is largely unknown on the continental side of things in South America. In my personal experience, it’s these kind of games that are the most difficult because sides don’t know how to approach them. A factor that will go against Juan Aurich is their lack of competitive football since early December but I’m banking on their motivation being enough to counter this factor.
Visitors Estudiantes Tecos have just started their domestic campaign but have already lost two consecutive games, which naturally lowers morale. Estudiantes Tecos have played two good sides but this doesn’t do much for them mentally, as you’d expect. Although the visitors will be motivated for their first ever appearance in this competition, this fixture remains one of the hardest that they could have faced geographically. Estudiantes Tecos will face this daunting trip with a lack of experience and a lack of morale – two potentially fatal issues.
Effectively, there’s a lot of “firsts” here for both sides really but you have to feel that Juan Aurich have the upper hand with their home advantage, particularly against demoralised visitors. I’m expecting a somewhat fast and open game due to naivety/inexperience from both sides but ultimately a home win does look good value tonight.
Verdict: Juan Aurich to win at 7/5.
Chelsea vs Birmingham City – lay Chelsea at 3/1.
Well, this bet worked well for us in the reversal of this fixture in December so I’m frankly expecting more of the same this time! Chelsea are still missing Drogba and Essien for this game, two very key players, and are now having issues with striker Nicolas Anelka as he’s not signed rejected their new contract offer for a reported fourth time. Chelsea have been playing rather convincingly lately despite key missing players but they’ll have their resolution tested today against an inspired and confident Birmingham City. We all know how good Chelsea are capable of being so this will be a risky call but one that I feel does contain some value.
Visitors Birmingham City are still in some kind of inspired form that leaves them unable to be beaten! I can’t really explain it – there’s simply a very strong sense of unity in their squad and it serves them well. Birmingham enter this game after winning away to a massively in-form Everton at weekend in the FA Cup, a result which frankly surprised me. That’s what I like about this Brummie side – they can still surprise me whilst progressing with their impressive run so fair play to them! I mean, fuck me – Birmingham are unbeaten in fifteen games in all competitions! That’s an absolutely phenomenal record and one that neither Manchester United nor Chelsea can match so the visitors must be doing something right!
Although this is something of a brave bet at the moment, I think you’d have to be even braver to bet against a Birmingham City side that are in the form of their lives. With their tremendous momentum entering this game you have to feel that laying Chelsea has got value in it, risky though it is!
Verdict: Lay Chelsea at 3/1.
Manchester United vs Manchester City – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
People have been asking me what’s going to happen in this game all week and the truth is that I just don’t know. Not only is this a derby, increasing the unpredictability of it, but both sides are putting in some haphazard performances of late so I’m a tad sceptical about placing any kind of serious bet on this game.
Manchester United have had defensive issues of late but the return of Rio Ferdinand last match appeared to steady the ship somewhat. Manchester United are still having problems in attack with not enough chances being taken properly and yet despite that Manchester United are still ramming home goals like there’s no tomorrow. I mean, Wayne Rooney scored four goals against Hull City without even playing well! That just says it all, doesn’t it? The one to watch for this game is Nani, who has been United’s best player for their last two games, in my opinion. He’s beginning to fill a bit of the massive void left by Cristiano Ronaldo’s departure but a lot of people underestimate him so it’ll be interesting to see how he does tonight. Valencia had a lot of joy against Garrido in the first leg and if that continues then City will get torn apart down the flanks, which causes problems. Ultimately, United are scoring goals of late whether they play well or not and they have to win this game so I can see them scoring at least two goals against a frankly shoddy Manchester City defence.
Visitors Manchester City have played well under Mancini but are still unsteady defensively. However, the visitors are looking potent and in-form Carlos Tevez is taking his chances very well at the moment so I’d expect him to cause problems. United’s defence has been unsteady so I’ll be surprised if City don’t score at least one goal in this game. They cannot possibly hope to come here and not concede so they’re going to want to score at least once. If Gary Neville plays in this game then City will have tremendous joy down their left hand side, which will cause mass problems. There’s talk of Adebayor returning for this game and he’s a lethal striker so this yet again could cause problems.
Ultimately, we’re looking at two bitter rivals with everything to gain and nothing to lose. Both sides are scoring and not defending well and the home side has to win. I simply can’t say what’s going to happen because I don’t know but there has to be value in over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Accmuluator fodder – Newell’s Old Boys, Newcastle United, Everton, Dundee United, Rangers, KVSK United.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Copa Libertadores:
Newell’s Old Boys vs Emelec Guayaquil (8) 2-0
Real Potosi vs Cruzeiro (7) 1-3
Juan Aurich vs Estudiantes Tecos (6) 2-1
Belgian Tweede Klasse:
Brussels vs Antwerp (6)
KVSK United vs Boussu Dour Borinage (7)
English Premier League:
Aston Villa vs Arsenal (6) 1-1
Chelsea vs Birmingham City (4) 1-1
Blackburn Rovers vs Wigan Athletic (5) over 2.5 goals
Everton vs Sunderland (8) 2-0
English Championship:
Scunthorpe United vs Sheffield Wednesday (6)
Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace (8)
English League Two:
Burton Albion vs Lincoln City (6)
English League Cup:
Manchester United vs Manchester City (6) over 2.5 goals
International Friendly:
South Africa vs Zimbabwe (6) under 2.5 goals
Scottish Premier League:
Celtic vs Hibs (7) 2-1
Dundee United vs St.Johnstone (8) 1-0
Falkirk vs Motherwell (6) 0-0
Hearts vs Aberdeen (7) 1-0
St.Mirren vs Rangers (8) 1-2
Spanish Segunda B:
Group 1:
Deportivo Alaves vs Celta de Vigo II (7)
Group 4:
Lucena vs Sangonera Atletico (6)
Enjoy your free betting tips!