RFS/Olimps Riga vs FK Ventspils
FreeI would urge you all to approach with caution today because although I like a lot of the games, they all bring a large risk factor with them (barring RoPS Rovaniemi) so stick to singles if you take them!
Today’s featured game is the Virsliga encounter between RFS/Olimps Riga and giants FK Ventspils. The hosts have had a miserly season whereas their opponents have been as imposing as ever and thus remain a potent threat for the Virsliga title.
I cannot deny for one moment that Olimps are one of the poorer sides in the Virsliga – that’s simply factual. They’ve been particularly weak this season although their hindrance at home comes from scoring goals as they’re better defensively (at home) than all three of the teams directly above them in the Virsliga currently. Olimps have lost four out of five home games already and do average conceding two goals per home game, which is generally quite condemning, particularly against a superior side like Ventspils. However, Olimps do bring some momentum into the game after humbling newly-promoted Jauniba in a baffling 9-0 win a couple of games ago and put up a spirited display at Dinaburg Daugavpils last match despite losing 2-0. However, I can’t offer too much defence for Olimps; they’re simply not a good side.
So why am I going against Ventspils today? A couple of reasons, but the main one is that they’re resting players. They’ve got a massive game in Lithuania in a few days time in the Baltic League against Suduva Marijampole and they will be resting players for that game and who can blame them? They’re playing a very poor side! However, this does make the bet I’ve selected today look quite interesting, I feel. Then consider that Ventspils’ last three consecutive games in all competitions would see them lose the game if their opponents were gifted the +1.75 handicap that I’m giving to Olimps and the bet then looks a little more interesting, particularly as their last game was at home to newly-promoted Jelgava. I have little doubt that Ventspils will win the game today but with just eight goals scored in five away games, they’re not a big goalscoring side on the road and I fail to see why that would change today with an under-strength side facing Olimps.
Obviously this is a risky bet so do approach with caution. This game could be 0-10 if Ventspils turn up so keep stakes low. However, Ventspils are resting players and have been shaky of late, particularly in defence. Olimps have something to bring into the game and should be able to keep the scoreline to 0-1 or 1-2 here so I think giving Olimps Riga a +1.75 handicap at generous odds of 7/4 in light of the above information could be a good bet today.
Verdict: RFS/Olimps Riga to win with +1.75 handicap at 7/4.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Tre Fiori vs Rudar Pljevlja – both sides to score at 11/10.
1/4 on the away win? I can’t buy that!
I appreciate that most of you will look at the fixture and say “A side from San Marino? They’ll get battered!” and I’d normally agree but there are more factors to consider here that could be exploited.
Tre Fiori are not a good side – San Marinese sides generally aren’t. However, they did feature in this competition last season against Sant Julia of Andorra so they do have some experience of the competition. They scored in both legs of that game before eventually losing out on penalties, an outcome which the Tre Fiori players have openly admitted to distressing them. They’re keen to make amends and why not today? They’re hosting a side that has never played in European competition before and we saw what Montenegrin football was like last season when Mogren Budva were destroyed 12-0 on aggregate (6-0 in both legs) by FC Copenhagen. Copenhagen are a good side but they’re not that good. Montenegrin inexperience naturally showed and they’re still in that position now. They’ve got little foreign influence on their domestic game, even less than that of San Marino, you may be surprised to learn! Rudar are completely new to this competition and I don’t feel for one moment that they’re worth 1/4 away from home, particularly as that’s where Montenegrin sides struggle the most, even domestically!
Rudar have the pace advantage between the two sides but the hosts have a lot of experienced players so it’s a much fairer balance than the odds suggest in that aspect. I won’t deny that Rudar are the better of the two sides but there’s no value in the away win at 1/4. For me, I think there’s value in both sides to score at 11/10 as we should really see a “game of two halves” today.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 11/10.
KuPS Kuopio vs Tampere United – away win at 17/10.
I’ve mentioned previously that as much as I respect KuPS Kuopio, they’re entirely dependant upon momentum. Unfortunately for the hosts, three consecutive defeats has left them in no man’s land so you have to fear for them today. They’re still scoring their token goal but the fact is that they’ve conceded two goals in each of their last three games so they’re losing faith defensively. Their strength has long been their defence because more often than not, they don’t score enough goals. Seven goals scored in six home Veikkausliiga games this season indicates the above perfectly well. KuPS are a hard-working side and they won’t lie down and lose here – it’s not their style – but defensively, they’re a mess at the moment so I feel that they’re there for the taking, despite their excellent start to the season.
Visitors Tampere United have surprised me since having their injured players return to their side. I expected an increase in their displays but not to this extent – I genuinely feel that they’re playing above themselves at the moment, in fact. Nonetheless, momentum sides with them and just one defeat in five away games in the Veikkausliiga this season suggests that Tampere are far better on the road this season than they were last season despite having a weaker side. They’ve actually won three of their five away games and average scoring nearly two goals per away game so they are to be feared and respected here, especially as they’re an overall better side than KuPS, who have massively over-achieved this season. Tampere are unbeaten in eight consecutive games and claimed a heroic 2-0 victory at giants FC Honka Espoo last match so spirits are high in the Tampere camp currently. Tampere do so well away from home because they’re lethal on the counter-attack as the fact that they’ve scored two goals per game for each of their last three away games indicates. They’re a bit easier to deal with at home as FC Lahti and TPS Turku have discovered by taking points away from their respective trips to Tampere of late. Nonetheless, the visitors today have a lot more in their favour then the odds suggest so I’m liking the look of the away win here.
I still think the bookies have priced the game wrongly, irrespective of what happens here – KuPS aren’t better than Tampere! KuPS have had a good start to their campaign and Tampere lost players in the transfer window but Tampere are still the better side and I fully expect that to show today with momentum favouring the visitors over their hosts.
Verdict: Tampere United to win at 17/10.
Haka Valkeakoski vs Inter Turku – away win at 17/10.
This is decidedly more risky than the above away win because Haka have been a bit unpredictable this season. However, I’m going against them today because the reason that they’ve struggled is because a lot of their squad are still unfamiliar with each other and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the two sides Haka have struggled most with in the Veikkausliiga this season have been HJK Helsinki and TPS Turku – two of the biggest and most well-organised sides in the division. Despite the misleading league table, Inter Turku are one of the top sides in the division and they dangerously have momentum on their side with three consecutive Veikkausliiga games unbeaten and a total of zero goals conceded along the way. Inter Turku held giants HJK Helsinki last match to remind Inter that they can still mix it with the title favourites of the division so I expect a committed display from Inter today. Inter have struggled this season because their defence was leaking too many goals but when they’re in-form, they don’t concede goals – that is their great strength. They don’t score enough without Furuholm, admittedly, hence the risk factor here, but they remain the better side by some distance – at least for this season! It may well be next season before Haka’s wealth has the desired impact but they’re not a concrete force yet so I don’t have too many concerns about them.
Inter have only lost once in their last four visits here and have scored six times during their last two visits alone so they know how to beat Haka. Haka have struggled to score goals at home of late, managing to do so in just one of their last three home games consecutively so I think the opportunity is there for in-form Inter to take a narrow away win today, particularly at generous odds of 17/10.
Verdict: Inter Turku to win at 17/10.
FC Lahti vs FC Honka Espoo – draw with away win no bet at 3/4.
I like this bet! It’s the first time I’ve tipped one like this but it looks promising. Why?
Well, although Lahti are hard to beat, they don’t score enough goals to win games so the best they tend to achieve is a draw, hence Lahti having drawn half of their games in the Veikkausliiga this season. They’ve lost four times and drawn once in five home games whilst scoring just once and conceding an average of nearly two goals per home game. They’re the lowest scoring side in the division and are without a win in eight games so morale is ebbing away in the Lahti camp. Lahti have scored just one goal in their past five games and whereas their defence is solid and dependable, they don’t present enough of a goal threat to cause problems to any side in the division currently so you have to fear for them today.
Visitors FC Honka Espoo have not convinced me at all away from home this season. They’ve won twice in five away games in the Veikkausliiga and have managed to score an abysmal three goals during that time and two of those were during their last away game at KuPS Kuopio! No side has conceded less away goals than Honka have this season, admittedly, but the giants have lost their flair on the road and it’s concerning long-term. You also have to be concerned at their abject 2-0 defeat inflicted at home by Tampere United last match – a poor display and a poor result. Honka have won just once in five consecutive games in all competitions now and they’re simply not playing well enough – fact. They have a poor record in Lahti with no wins during their past three visits, losing once along the way, so I don’t see the away win as value whatsoever.
However, what I do see is value is taking the draw with away win no bet. I cannot entertain the idea of Lahti winning this game because they’re not good enough and don’t score enough. If any side wins this game then it will be Honka by a narrow margin but the most likely outcome for two sides that don’t score goals is a draw, logically, despite Honka being unquestionably the better side. With the above in mind, however, backing the draw with away win no bet at 3/4 looks really tempting as I don’t see the bet losing, whatever happens!
Verdict: Draw with away win no bet at 3/4.
RoPS Rovaniemi vs PS Kemi Kings – home win at 1/2.
Good odds! RoPS are usually shorter than this and it’s either a market reaction or Kemi Kings’ unbeaten run on the road in the Ykkonen this season which has granted us these odds but either way, I’ll happily take them!
Why? RoPS are the best side in the Ykkonen by a mile and all of their displays have shown it. They slipped up last match by drawing 1-1 with newly-promoted OPS Oulu in their “derby” match but these things happen sometimes. Consider that RoPS have won six out of nine games already after being relegated from the Veikkausliiga last season and you can see how strong they are. RoPS are strong because they score goals as an average of nearly three goals scored per game indicates all too well. They’ve won four times in five home games and average scoring four goals per game at home so they’re truly a frightening host in the distant north! RoPS have won four out of their last five games overall too so momentum is certainly their ally at the moment.
I rate PS Kemi Kings but they’re not a match for RoPS, bluntly. They’re unbeaten on the road this season because they tend to grab a token goal and defend well against their hosts. However, this is an entirely different opponent for Kemi Kings – this is a side that is literally too good to be in the Ykkonen. Kemi Kings have drawn four out of their five away games this season, winning just once, which shows you that they don’t score enough goals, which has been a problem of theirs this season. RoPS, however, have no problems at all scoring goals and it’s going to take just one goal to unsettle a defensive Kemi Kings side and I’m confident that RoPS will get that goal so I see a long day in the making for Kemi Kings here today.
I don’t accept that the odds for RoPS are so long considering their blatant superiority – they should be 2/5 at most here! Kemi Kings are a good side but they’re not on the same ball park as RoPS and the hosts really should win this comfortably, in my opinion.
Verdict: RoPS Rovaniemi to win at 1/2.
Vasby United vs Ljungskile – away win at 7/5.
Hosts Vasby United are battling relegation from the Superettan (as expected!) and have now lost four consecutive games. As they’re second from the bottom of the table at the present time, it’s hard to imagine them as anything but relegation-battlers – period! It’s not hard to see why, either, with five defeats in six home games already this season, which is largely due to the fact that they’ve conceded more goals at home than anyone else – an average of over two goals per game! They’re on a slippery slope downwards at the current time and although I respect their spirited displays of late, the fact is that they’ve still lost the games they’ve played in despite scoring goals so the future does look rather bleak for little Vasby United.
Visitors Ljungskile don’t travel well as a rule, which is why I presume we’ve got such favourable odds on the away win here because if it was purely down to quality then this would be bargain of the century. Ljungskile are the better side by a mile, basically. Their flaw is not scoring enough goals but they’ve scored for three consecutive away games now so I’ll take a chance on them today. Ljungskile have won three out of their last five Superettan games overall and have looked driven as a result. Momentum favours them and whilst they’re scoring goals, they’re a dangerous side because they boast one of the best defences in the division, in my opinion. They’ve notched up eight goals in their last three games so they look set to cause a lot of problems for their hosts today, particularly as their hosts are weak in defence.
My sole concern today is if Vasby score an early goal. Ljungskile are superb if they have a lead to defend but if they have to come from behind, particularly away from home, then they’re unreliable. However, Ljungskile are in-form and have conceded a lot less goals than any other Superettan side this season so they’re worthy of consideration today, in my opinion. Vasby offer little threat to Ljungskile and despite the visitors winning just once in six away games this season, this is the perfect moment for them to amend that record because their hosts are likely to concede and Ljungskile themselves don’t concede as a rule. Therefore, the away win at 7/5 looks intriguing today.
Verdict: Ljungskile to win at 7/5.
Accumulator fodder:
B36 Torshavn, RoPS Rovaniemi, Liepajas Metalurgs, Dinaburg Daugavpils.
Recommended bets:
B36 Torshavn, RoPS Rovaniemi, and Liepajas Metalurgs at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
UEFA European Champions League:
Tre Fiori vs Rudar Pljevlja (6) 1-2
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
B36 Torshavn vs Suduroy (8) 3-1
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
KuPS Kuopio vs Tampere United (6) 1-2
Haka Valkeakoski vs Inter Turku (5) 0-1
FC Lahti vs FC Honka Espoo (6) under 2.5 goals
Finnish Ykkonen:
HJK II vs Viikingit Helsinki (6) under 2.5 goals
OPS Oulu vs KPV Kokkola (4)
RoPS Rovaniemi vs PS Kemi Kings (8)
Latvian Virsliga:
Dinaburg Daugavpils vs Tranzits Ventspils (8) 2-0
RFS/Olimps Riga vs FK Ventspils (7) 0-1
Liepajas Metalurgs vs FK Jurmala (8) 2-1
Singaporean S-League:
Armed Forces vs Etoile (5) 2-1
Swedish Superettan:
Vasby United vs Ljungskile (6)
Enjoy your free betting tips!