RoPS Rovaniemi vs KuPS Kuopio
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Veikkausliiga encounter between RoPS Rovaniemi and KuPS Kuopio. The visitors are the better of these two sides and I’m hoping it’ll show by the final whistle today!
RoPS played at home a few days ago against TPS Turku and drew 1-1, which was a decent result on paper. However, having seen the game, I can only describe that draw as an incredible result for RoPS, who were dominated and outplayed from start to finish. I admire RoPS’ battling spirit and that was literally all that kept them from losing the game as it won them an undeserved penalty, from which they equalised. It was an unbelievable decision, really – a long ball forward, the RoPS frontman went shoulder-to-shoulder with Nyberg, both were slightly grappling with each other but nothing serious, Nyberg went to ground and tackled the ball cleanly, which rolled away. The RoPS frontman went to ground after the ball had gone away and the referee somehow decided it was a penalty. RoPS will work hard to the last minute and I respect them immensely for it. After all, that’s what earns them most of their points in the Veikkausliiga. However, they didn’t deserve anything from that game and perhaps their “honeymoon period” is beginning to look over following promotion from the Ykkonen last season. It’s no secret that RoPS are in the shallow end of the pool when it comes to ability and depth but one thing that statistics don’t show you is that they’re not a good side in attack. Barring Rivera, they have no solid threat in attack and that will hurt them at somepoint, something I hope to see happen today.
KuPS Kuopio aren’t my favourite side to back away from home in the Veikkausliiga but having seen how superbly they played last match, I simply have to do so here. I mean, ok, they were at home against a very poor MyPa Anjalankoski side but the goals that they scored were very good goals with Nwakaeme, Williams, and Udah all looking very strong together. Add to that mixture the duo of Ilo and Venelainen and we have a KuPS side that is not only creative and good passers of the ball but a KuPS side that can score goals for fun. Signing Karkkainen pre-season to bolster their defence was a good move although there’s still work to be done. However, KuPS look very smooth in attack at the moment and realistically, they could have stuffed MyPa at least 4-0 last match.
Therefore, I have to take the away win here. I don’t like going against RoPS at home because they’re hard to take on on their infamous artificial turf. However, KuPS simply are a better side than they are and if they play as well today as they did against MyPa then they’ll have no trouble taking three points from Rovaniemi. For me, there’s some value in the away win at evens although I’d be cautious about backing it below that.
Verdict: KuPS Kuopio to win at evens.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs Neman Grodno – lay Shakhtyor Soligorsk at 6/5.
Shakhtyor Soligorsk are one of the top two sides in Belarus right now but they’re miles behind BATE Borisov from a realistic perspective because Shakhtyor don’t score goals. They’re solid enough at the back but they do not find the net enough, and that is a problem. It’s safe to assume that Shakhtyor will find it hard to win a game if they concede in it and that’s a massive problem because no side can go through a season not conceding goals – it’s an occupational hazard!
Four wins from six home games suggests Shakhtyor will win this one. Let’s break down Shakhtyor’s home form this season in the Vysshaya Liga a little more, shall we? They’ve managed two 1-0 wins against stubborn defensive sides – FC Minsk and Torpedo Zhodino respectively – they’ve lost 0-2 against title rivals BATE Borisov, inexplicably drawn 2-2 with a poor Dnepr Mogilev side, and beaten Dinamo Brest 2-0 because Dinamo Brest can’t/refuse to defend. In each of their 1-0 wins, Shakhtyor have relied upon set piece supremacy to steer them to victory but it’s hardly the foundation for success.
Now consider that their immense defence is devoid of Polyakov today, who is on international duty with Belarus U21, and we have a problem. A side that doesn’t score goals and relies heavily on their defence is missing an integral defender. Indeed, they’re even missing new striker Yurchanka in attack, who is also on international duty. Admittedly, it’s usually Komarovski and Alumona that spearhead the Shakhtyor attack but a lack of options can make a side predictable. All in all, Shakhtyor both are and look predictable, and I think the visitors can exploit that.
Although terrible at home because they can’t break sides down, Neman Grodno have been superb on the road, counter-attacking in deadly fashion whilst defending valiantly. They’re unbeaten on the road this season, winning at both Dinamo Minsk and Naftan Novopolotsk along the way, not to mention getting a draw on Dinamo Brest’s notoriously difficult artificial turf. Neman Grodno have rapidly become a side that is very hard to break through and with Moldovan hitman Frunza having bedded in well, it’s not hard to see why they’re scoring freely away from home too. Strakhanovich was an inspired signing in midfield; he’s instrumental to their counter-attacks. Demidovich and Denisevich provide a great source of attacking power from midfield too, the latter of which will be particularly keen to do well here as Shakhtyor Soligorsk are his former club. Although Neman Grodno miss midfield regular Savostyanov, they’re still strong enough to prevent Shakhtyor from scoring here, in my view, possibly even sneaking a win if they score first.
I therefore have to look upon odds of 6/5 on laying Shakhtyor as a good value bet today. The hosts aren’t a side I like to go against but their strengths are weaknesses in a game like this and I think the visitors have been somewhat underestimated here, especially as they actually won in Soligorsk last year.
Verdict: Lay Shakhtyor Soligorsk at 6/5.
Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara – home win at evens.
Quality-wise, there’s not much between these two sides at all. Each side is capable of springing the odd surprise and generally, I’d not get involved. However, I have to here because of Atletico boss Gusmao. As some of you are aware, I’m a big fan of this guy and his ability to motivate his players to do exactly what he wants and it generally earns them results. Last season, Gusmao was managing Ceara as he got them promoted from Serie B so he knows this Ceara side inside out. He moved to Vasco da Gama early in the season and steered them to two victories against his old club Ceara during that time, not to mention helping them beat the drop against all odds. Gusmao’s tactics are simple but effective; never lose at home! He managed that very well with both Ceara and Vasco and I expect the same from Atletico Goianiense. The vistiors aren’t a good side and I don’t fancy the chances of them getting one over on their old boss so the home win at evens does appeal to me here.
Verdict: Atletico Goianiense to win at evens.
Botafogo vs Coritiba – home win at 5/6.
Botafogo lost a few players pre-season that will impact them long-term in Serie A but I still fancy them here. They’re still a good attacking side with old Uruguayan hitman Abreu leading the line. Herrera and Caio are impressing alongside him and overall, Botafogo are not an easy side to face at home. Botafogo’s losses pre-season are more focused on their defence so they may concede more goals this season but I still expect them to attack with the same purpose. Visitors Coritiba are still newbies to this division and although I admire their energy, they’re not a particularly good side and they do concede goals rather easily. Additionally, this is Coritiba’s third game in seven days and they absolutely don’t have the depth to play the same team again so they may even rest players here. For me, there’s value in the home win at 5/6.
Verdict: Botafogo to win at 5/6.
Corinthians vs Fluminense – home win at 11/10.
Corinthians, like most Brazilian clubs, lost players pre-season. Dentinho’s sale to Shakhtar Donetsk will hurt their title bid, in my view, as his skill is something I don’t feel that they can replace. However, Corinthians are very wealthy – when they lose players, they can usually find adequate replacements and they’ve done that this season. They lost Ronaldo so they got Adriano. They signed Liedson and Emerson to allow for the inevitable departure of Dentinho. Corinthians are still a very strong side and that’s especially true at home so I fancy them to do well here. Additionally, as you may have gathered before, I simply don’t rate Fluminense without Ramalho in charge. I think that they lack personality, cohesion, and most of all – potency. They did well to win at Atletico Goianiense and to beat a good Cruzeiro side last match but I’d argue that they rode their luck in both games. Corinthians are a better side than they are and it’s going to take more than tempremental Fred in attack for Fluminense or veteran playmaker Deco behind him to make me change my mind about that. For me, the home win is very generously priced at 11/10.
Verdict: Corinthians to win at 11/10.
Jelgava vs Daugava Daugavpils – away win at evens.
No idea how these odds are available. Daugava don’t score many goals but when they do, they win games because they’re solid at the back. Jelgava do well against sides that they actually have the capability to beat but Daugava are a top four Virsliga side and subsequently, they’re not an attainable target for Jelgava, in my view. Jelgava lost this game 0-1 last year and the same result today wouldn’t surprise me. Jelgava have already lost to two out of the four Virsliga heavyweights (Liepajas Metalurgs and Skonto Riga respectively) and have only scored results off poor sides. Despite that, they still managed to lose at home to newly-promoted FC Jurmala, surprisingly. Daugava follow a much more consistent pattern because they’re a much more consistent team. The only two sides to beat them away from home this season are two sides that will finish above them this season – FK Ventspils and Liepajas Metalurgs respectively. Aside from that, Daugava have won their other three Virsliga away games, beating both Jurmala clubs and relegation candidates RFS/Olimps Riga 0-6 in their last away game. Gongadze is in good form for today’s visitors and with Dudnyk providing good support, Daugava are scoring goals – gradually – and that’s ominous because they don’t concede. A lot will be made of Jelgava’s win at Liepajas Metalurgs last match but Liepajas have had some very dodgy results of late – I really wouldn’t read much into that. For me, the visitors shouldn’t be longer than 7/10 here so the away win at evens really appeals to me here.
Verdict: Daugava Daugavpils to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
TPS Turku, AC Oulu, Ekranas Panevezys.
Recommended bets:
KuPS Kuopio, AC Oulu, and Ekranas Panevezys at over evens.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA European U21 Championship:
Czech Republic vs Ukraine (6) 1-0
Spain vs England (5) 1-2
Argentinian Primera Division:
Atletico Huracan vs Velez Sarsfield (7) 0-2
Estudiantes De La Plata vs River Plate (7) 0-0
Atletico Lanus vs Argentinos Juniors (7) 1-0
Boca Juniors vs Banfield (7) 2-1
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Dinamo Minsk vs FC Minsk (6) 1-2
Torpedo Zhodino vs Vitebsk (6) 1-0
Naftan Novopolotsk vs BATE Borisov (5) 1-0
Dinamo Brest vs Belshina Bobriusk (5) 1-1
Dnepr Mogilev vs Gomel (6) 1-1
Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs Neman Grodno (5) 0-0
Brazilian Serie A:
Bahia vs Atletico Mineiro (6) 1-0
Atletico Goianiense vs Ceara (7) 2-0
Internacional vs Palmeiras (6) 1-1
Corinthians vs Fluminense (7) 2-0
Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo (6) 1-1
Botafogo vs Coritiba (7) 2-0
Chilean Primera Division:
Universidad Catolica vs Universidad de Chile (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Colombian Primera A:
La Equidad Bogota vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin (6) 1-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Deportivo Quito vs El Nacional Quito (7) 2-1
Olmedo Riobamba vs Manta (6) 1-0
Espoli Cayambe vs Deportivo Cuenca (5) 0-0
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Liga de Quito (6) 0-1
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
RoPS Rovaniemi vs KuPS Kuopio (6) 1-2
VPS Vaasa vs FC Honka Espoo (5) 1-1
TPS Turku vs Haka Valkeakoski (8) 2-0
MyPa Anjalankoski vs HJK Helsinki (7) 0-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
PK-35 Helsinki vs Viikingit Helsinki (6) at least one red card in this game
Espoo vs AC Oulu (8)
KPV Kokkola vs PS Kemi Kings (6)
Italian Serie B:
Novara vs Padova (5)
Latvian Virsliga:
Jelgava vs Daugava Daugavpils (7) 0-2
Lithuania A Lyga:
Ekranas Panevezys vs Dainava (9) -1.5 handicap
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Sandefjord vs Bryne (6)
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Elche vs Real Valladolid (5) both sides to score
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Elfsborg Boras vs Mjallby Solvesborg (7) 2-0
AIK Solna vs Malmo FF (6) 1-1
Swedish Superettan:
Qviding Goteborg vs Landskrona BoIS (6)
Falkenberg vs Hammarby (6)
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Enjoy your free betting tips!