RoPS Rovaniemi vs OPS Oulu
FreeToday’s featured game is the Ykkonen encounter between RoPS Rovaniemi and OPS Oulu. RoPS have taken the Ykkonen by storm following relegation from the Veikkausliiga last season and look likely to return there this season, barring a disaster. OPS Oulu have had a mixed start to life in the Ykkonen following promotion but are on a good run at the moment so you’d think that they’d give RoPS a good game today.
My opinion on that, however, is that OPS won’t even get close. The reason that RoPS are doing so well is not only because of how much better they are than their opponents but because of their constant hounding and pacey attack. It’s virtually an alien concept to have such tactics in the Ykkonen so RoPS are having the time of their lives! RoPS have won six out of seven at home already this season and have averaged scoring just under four goals per home game whilst conceding an average of just over a goal per every two home games. They’re a truly terrifying home side in this division and emphasised that point by winning at home last match on the back of a 3-0 thrashing by promotion rivals Viikingit Helsinki, overcoming KPV Kokkola in this instance. RoPS’ defence isn’t the best in the world. In fact, I’d not be too hasty to label it amongst the best in the Ykkonen but they always bring goals to the table and I’ll be astounded if they don’t do the same again today against minnows OPS Oulu.
OPS Oulu enter this semi-derby in very good form with three wins and two draws from their past five games. They’ve already won four times on the road this season in just six games so they’re finally starting to show signs of adapting to Ykkonen football. OPS don’t score many on the road but they have a tight defence, hence their success away from home. However, this is the exact same approach that their fellow promoted side Espoo took when travelling to face RoPS Rovaniemi and they were in even better form but were heavily beaten by the hosts on that day. OPS are a different side but have a lot of similarities to Espoo and I expect them to share a similar fate as a result. OPS’ form at the moment is good and momentum will help them here but they’re facing a side that’s easily two or three times as good as they are and I think their away form statistics will take a swift turn downwards after this game today.
The game itself is a partial derby but there’s no real rivalry there. RoPS will want to seek revenge for their unprecedented draw in Oulu in June against OPS by winning today and they look extremely well-placed to do so. Many sides have to Rovaniemi to try and defend but none of them have succeeded with those tactics due to the ferocity of the RoPS attack. Indeed, the only side to take a point from this game was an in-form HJK II who caught RoPS on a bad day, nothing more. RoPS are by far the best side in the division and with an average of nearly four goals scored per home game, it’s hard to look upon them beating the -1.75 goal handicap at evens and not see it as a good value bet today.
Verdict: RoPS Rovaniemi to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at evens.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Wiener Neustadt vs Austria Vienna – away win at 5/4.
Although Austria Vienna undeniably have committments in Europe at the moment, it’s hard to see them not fielding a full-strength side today. They won the first leg of their UEFA Europa League Qualifier 3-1 in Poland against Ruch Chorzow, which basically means that they’re through despite having to play the second leg next week. Austria Vienna can sense the weakness of bitter rivals Rapid Vienna this year and the unconvincing displays of reigning champions Salzburg so they’ll be feeling more confident than usual about their chances of a Bundesliga title, in my opinion. Let’s not forget that their impressive and potent displays so far this season have all been without star playmaker Milenko Acimovic, who is injured currently, so they’re not even actually at full-strength and they’re still blowing sides away. Austria Vienna beat Wiener Neustadt three times in four meetings last season but the two sides always played out good games. Why? Because Wiener Neustadt are a decent side that are always capable of bringing goals to the table. I admire the hosts today; they’re a bad side to underestimate. Their relentless energy and belief, particularly at home, has stung big sides before but Austria Vienna look to have mastered it. Wiener have been excellent this season with a 5-0 drubbing of LASK Linz in their opening Bundesliga game and a 2-1 win at giants Rapid Vienna last match so momentum is strong for the hosts at the moment. However, they’re facing a calm, composed, and very measured side today that are not only better than they are but also know how to beat them. Midfielder Reiter is missing for the hosts through suspension but that’s not a great loss for them. I think we’ll see a lot of goals here as both sides love to attack but for me, there’s only one winner here and that’s the superior and in-form visitors at generous odds of 5/4.
Verdict: Austria Vienna to win at 5/4.
Rapid Vienna vs Salzburg – away win at 29/20.
This is one of the biggest games in Austria so caution is always recommended! However, Rapid’s season is on the verge of collapsing all around them if they’re not careful. The loss of playmaker Boskovic over the summer looks to have hindered them massively with Rapid struggling to create chances, let alone score goals. They’ve been embarrassed in both Bundesliga games so far this season, losing 2-1 at home to Wiener Neustadt last match and 4-0 at newly-promoted Wacker Innsbruck in their opening game of the season. They drew 1-1 with Beroe in Bulgaria mid-week despite being the better side by far on paper and to be blunt, Rapid have an awful lot of problems currently. This is the last game that they’ll want to be playing at the moment and although they’ll undoubtedly be motivated for the game, I just don’t believe that they have the quality to do the damage to their bitter rivals Salzburg today, particularly with key defender Soma still injured and Finn Markus Heikkinen struggling to find his best form.
However, Salzburg are struggling too…or are they? I think we might see a change in the wind of Salzburg’s fortune over the coming weeks as they’ve finally realised what losing Janko has done to them and they’ve signed Argentinian striker Boghossian from Newells Old Boys as a replacement. He is a big target man and is far better suited to that role than Austrian striker Wallner is. Salzburg welcome back key defender Afolabi for this game and will be raring to go for this game following a good result in Cyprus mid-week against Omonia Nicosia. Salzburg claimed a narrow win here last season and I genuinely believe that they’re capable of matching that result today against a Rapid Vienna side that has not only lessened in quality but a Rapid Vienna side that is more tired than they are as they played on thursday whereas Salzburg played on tuesday. For me, although this will be a tight game with tempers flaring, the value is in the away win.
Verdict: Salzburg to win at 29/20.
Racing Genk vs Germinal Beerschot – home win at 4/5.
I hate previewing games at the start of the season but I still feel there’s value on the home win here. Fair enough – Genk had a torrid campaign last year because of dreadful home form but to underestimate how good Genk are is just plain stupid. Inter Turku did that mid-week in their UEFA Europa League Qualifier in Finland and Genk punished them, winning 4-1 as a result. It was the introduction of manager Vercauteren that changed Genk’s fortunes last season and eventually steered them to a European place so I have some faith in the talented hosts today. Their opponents Germinal are a capable side themselves but they’re not yet in the top five or six sides in the country whereas Genk most certainly are. Germinal haven’t prepared too well for this season with friendlies exposing their impotent attack and occasionally exposing their weak defence. Germinal are a home side by nature and that showed last season too so I expect it to show this season too, particularly with few changes made at the club over the summer break. Germinal are capable of giving Genk a good game but surely not on the back of poor friendlies and at such an early stage of the season? I like Genk to win this one on quality alone but home advantage helps and I think that the bookies have priced them too generously because of their poor showing last season so there should be value in the home win today.
Verdict: Racing Genk to win at 4/5.
Ceske Budejovice vs Sparta Prague – home win with draw no bet at 7/4.
This is a risky call because Ceske Budejovice are shit the hosts aren’t the most capable of sides in front of goal. Their defence is solid enough on its day but the reason they’re consistently battling relegation year after year is because they don’t score enough goals, home or away. So why am I recommending this bet? Well, Sparta Prague have a lot of problems currently. They’re certainly not the side that they used to be and their strength in-depth is certainly waning. They’ve played six games over the past twenty days and fatigue has to be settling in by now, surely? Helpfully, key centre-back Tomas Repka decided to spit on Volesak in their last game and has earned himself a suspension for this game. They’ve already got injury problems with the likes of Willfried, Vacek, and Lacny injured for this game and Sparta will undoubtedly be prioritising their European committments over their domestic committments for obvious reasons. Sparta are sending a second string to face Ceske today so this is the best opportunity that the hosts will have had for some years to beat the mighty Sparta Prague. Can they do it? Probably not – they’re as impotent as sides come in the Gambrinus Liga! Nonetheless, I don’t see the hosts losing this one as they can defend competently so backing the home win with draw no bet at 7/4 looks a bet worthy of your consideration today.
Verdict: Ceske Budejovice to win with draw no bet at 7/4.
MyPa Anjalankoski vs Tampere United – away win at 33/20.
Defeat mid-week for hosts MyPa at the hands of Poli Timisoara leaves MyPa with it all to do in the return leg next week in Romania. It’s a task that I don’t expect them to be able to complete but they’ve not lost heavily enough mid-week to lose all hope so I expect them to still go for it, meaning that they should rest players for this game today. MyPa already have a terrible home record in the Veikkausliiga this season with just one win in seven home games. Admittedly, they’ve only lost two of those games but their lack of firepower isn’t helping them at all. Whereas I don’t rate their opponents Tampere United as a notably better side, I do think they’re worth looking at today. Now all their players are back from injury, they look a much more dangerous side. They’ve already won four out of eight away games this season and only reigning champions HJK Helsinki have scored more on the road than they have. Tampere’s problem is their inability to defend away from home, something that is shown with the statistic that only shitty AC Oulu have conceded more than they have away from home. However, three wins from their past four games leaves Tampere with a good momentum boost and with the hosts’ attention elsewhere, there could well be value in the away win today.
Verdict: Tampere United to win at 33/20.
Espoo vs Viikingit Helsinki – away win at 11/10.
Just one win in their past five Ykkonen games says that newly-promoted Espoo’s bubble has been well and truly burst, particularly as three of those games resulted in defeat. They’ve been solid at home this season with four wins in six home games but those results came whilst they were during a good run of form – let’s see how they cope now that they’re struggling. Espoo’s problem is a common one experienced by Kakkonen sides being promoted – they don’t score enough goals. Their defence is good enough to play in the Ykkonen but their attack isn’t, in my opinion. In their last four home games, Espoo have lost against RoPS Rovaniemi and OPS Oulu so they’re certainly not infallible at home. The big question is can Viikingit Helsinki take advantage of their hosts’ problems? I’ve no doubts over their actual ability to do so as Viikingit are one of the better Ykkonen sides. However, the reason that Viikingit have only won once in their run of four games without defeat is because they’ve not scored enough goals en mass. I’ll give them some credit though – their draw at PoPa Pori last match was a very good result and I think they’ll take momentum from it too as PoPa are a very good goalscoring side in this division. Viikingit have already won three times on the road this season and their watertight defence has been penetrated less times than any other Ykkonen side has away from home so they will certainly give themselves the best possible chance of taking three points here. Viikingit are without a doubt the better side and if they take the lead in this game then they really should win it. Although there is a relatively large amount of risk involved in this game, there’s still some value on the away win for me.
Verdict: Viikingit Helsinki to win at 11/10.
Stromsgodset vs Aalesund – home win at evens.
At long last I return to backing the home side in Drammen! A defeat on the artificial turf of Odd Grenland in their last game won’t have dampened Stromsgodset spirits for this game because they’re always phenomenal at home. Nobody in this division has won more home games than today’s hosts with seven wins from nine games. Stromsgodset average scoring nearly two goals per home game too and although their defence is shaky at the best of times, they’re always a reliable force in attack, particularly at home. Young Marcus Pedersen is living up to all the hype about him by topping the Stromsgodset goalscoring charts and fellow youngster Berget isn’t doing himself any harm either with four goals already to his name this season. Aside from defence, Stromsgodset’s problem is that they have a very young side but they’re always strong on their own turf and I expect nothing less than a convincing display from them today.
Rekdal’s Aalesund somewhat embarrassingly drew at home to Scottish side Motherwell mid-week. They now have to go to Scotland next week to try and qualify for the next round of the UEFA Europa League so their thin squad is already rather stretched, not to mention tired. Aalesund have played very well indeed this year but they have been caught out on the road by not scoring enough goals, losing five out of nine away games already in the Eliteserien this year. Unfortunately for this tired Aalesund side who lost in Drammen last year, they’re facing an extremely energetic and potent Stromsgodset side. Those two characteristics will be the last characteristics of any side that they’d want to be facing today but that’s what they have to deal with. Rekdal will motivate his men as well as ever and Aalesund will make life hard for the hosts but there has to be value on the home win because of the number of goals that Stromsgodset score, the fatigue of their opponents, and also the focus on European competition of their opponents
Verdict: Stromsgodset to win at evens.
Sport Colombia vs Libertad Asuncion – away win at 3/4.
I’d normally never back an away win in South America at such short odds but my reasoning behind this is purely that Sport Colombia are shit. I really can’t elaborate much more than that, I’m afraid! They’ve already lost their two games in the Clausura without scoring and look set to continue their atrocious form from the Apertura into the Clausura as a result. Sport lost six out of eleven at home in the Apertura, winning just once along the way because they’re fairly impotent and have no concept of defence. Their opponents today, Libertad Asuncion, are one of the bigger and more accomplished Paraguayan sides and both their home and away form consistently reflects that. Libertad beat them at home in March and away in May without conceding in either game so the gulf in class is easily visible. For me, this game has away win written all over it and I even consider short-ish odds of 3/4 to be of some value tonight.
Verdict: Libertad Asuncion to win at 3/4.
Cienciano vs Inti Gas – home win at 6/5.
Although both sides are short on form, I still cannot fathom these odds at all. Cienciano have only lost once in eleven home games this season, winning six times along the way. They average scoring nearly two goals per home game and are unbeaten in their last ten home games. They’re atrocious away from home but they really enjoy their home comforts as Inti Gas discovered when they were crushed here 3-0 last season. Cienciano’s recent form isn’t flattering to them on the statistics chart but then again, most of their games of late have been away from home and try as they might, Cienciano simply cannot perform away from home. Inti Gas may have won their last match to boost their morale but the fact is that they also cannot travel and do well. They’ve lost nine out of twelve on the road this season with an average of less than a goal scored per away game and nearly two goals conceded per away game. Inti Gas started the season well enough away from home but they’ve actually lost nine consecutive away games now and have only scored in three of them! Whereas there’s little quality difference between the two sides tonight, the home side often prevails and that’s exactly what I expect to happen today – I’m just shocked that the odds are on the generous side of evens for this selection!
Verdict: Cienciano to win at 6/5.
Sport Huancayo vs Universidad San Martin – home win at evens.
This is a more risky selection in Peru as Universidad San Martin are the best side in the country at the moment. Their away form isn’t exactly glistening but they always bring goals to a game which is naturally a very dangerous advantage to boast. However, I’m banking on Universidad’s focus being on their Sudamericana game next week so they may rest players today, particularly with a six-point cushion at the top of the table. They’re also facing a tough Sport Huancayo side that rarely lose at home, tasting defeat just once in twelve home games this season whilst winning nine times. Sport aren’t as good as Universidad but they’ve got the potential tonight to make that irrelevant if Universidad rest playeras I expect them to. Sport do well at home because they average scoring over two goals per home game and conceding less than a goal per home game. Sport Huancayo haven’t lost to Universidad on their own turf since promotion and even beat them here last season so they do know how to do it. I have to endorse caution for this one because Universidad really are a good side but there should be value in the home win with committments for the visitors being elsewhere tonight.
Verdict: Sport Huancayo to win at evens.
Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia Bialystok – Lech Poznan to win at 9/10.
This game is the Super Cup Final and will be played at a neutral venue, reportedly in Plock. However, this game is not the highlight of each team’s week with both sides competing in European competitions either side of this game so I expect players to be rested for both sides. The question then becomes “Who has more strength in-depth?”. My repsonse to that would be “Lech Poznan”, because I believe that they do and also because they get to try out Latvian starlet Rudnevs at long last following their impressive capture of his signature. Jagiellonia only competed on thursday against Aris Salonika of Greece and were embarrassed at home whereas Lech played on tuesday night in Czech Republic against Sparta Prague so they’ve had longer to rest ahead of this game. Lech are the better of the two sides and whether it’s a first or second string today, I fully expect that to show in the result. I don’t see many goals in this one between two disinterested sides but I do feel that new signing Rudnevs could make the difference today. Either way, backing Lech to beat Jagiellonia at 9/10 always looks good value to me if they have good strikers in their squad, which they do!
Verdict: Lech Poznan to win at 9/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Shakhtyor Soligorsk, Colo Colo, EB/Streymur, RoPS Rovaniemi, PoPa Pori, Skonto Riga, Vetra Vilnius, Ekranas Panevezys, Viking Stavanger, Rosenborg BK, Fredrikstad, Lov-Ham Bergen, Sogndal, Cienciano, Alianza Lima, Lokomotiv Moscow, Malmo, Elfsborg Boras.
Recommended bets in no particular order:
RoPS Rovaniemi -1.75 and PoPa Pori at 2/1.
Fredrikstad, Sogndal, and Lov-Ham Bergen at 2/1.
Malmo, Stromsgodset, and Viking Stavanger at 3/1.
Lokomotiv Moscow, Austria Vienna, and Rosenborg BK at 3/1.
Cienciano, Colo Colo, and Alianza Lima at 4/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Austrian Bundesliga:
Wiener Neustadt vs Austria Vienna (6) over 2.5 goals
Rapid Vienna vs Salzburg (5) 0-1
Wacker Innsbruck vs Sturm Graz (4) 2-1
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Dinamo Brest vs Dnepr Mogilev (6) over 2.5 goals
Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs Neman Grodno (8) 2-0
Minsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk (7) 2-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi (5) 1-0
Racing Genk vs Germinal Beerschot (7) 2-1
Brazilian Serie A:
Palmeiras vs Corinthians (5) 0-0
Vitoria vs Botafogo (6) over 2.5 goals
Avai vs Goias (7) 2-1
Internacional vs Gremio (6) under 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Atletico Mineiro vs Cruzeiro (6) 1-1
Gremio Prudente vs Santos (5) 1-0
Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama (6) 2-1
Bulgarian A PFG:
Montana vs Lokomotiv Sofia (6) 0-1
CSKA Sofia vs Levski Sofia (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Chilean Primera Division:
Nublense vs Audax Italiano (5) 1-2
Santiago Wanderers vs Cobreloa (6) 2-0
La Serena vs Santiago Morning (5) 1-1
Colo Colo vs Union San Felipe (8) -1.75 handicap
Colombian Primera A:
Independiente Medellin vs America de Cali (7) 2-1
Atletico Huila vs Real Cartagena (5) 1-1
Boyaca Chico vs Envigado (7) 1-0
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Deportes Tolima (7) over 2.5 goals
Deportes Quindio vs Millonarios Bogota (5) 0-0
Cucuta Deportivo vs La Equidad Bogota (5) 3-2
Croatian Prva Liga:
Osijek vs Hajduk Split (5) 1-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Viktoria Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 (5) 0-0
Ceske Budejovice vs Sparta Prague (4) 1-0
Banik Ostrava vs Brno (6) 2-0
Jablonec vs Teplice (6) 2-1
Danish Superligaen:
Randers vs Nordsjaelland (4) 1-1
Silkeborg vs Lyngby (6) both sides to score
Brondby vs Midtylland (7) over 2.5 goals
Ecuadorian Primera A:
El Nacional Quito vs Emelec Guayaquil (6) 1-1
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
AB Argir vs B68 Toftir (5) 1-1
HB Torshavn vs IF Fuglafjordur (7) 2-0
EB/Streymur vs B71 Sandur (8) 2-1
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
IFK Mariehamn vs FC Honka Espoo (5) 2-2
MyPa Anjalankoski vs Tampere United (6) 1-2
FC Lahti vs Inter Turku (5) 1-1
TPS Turku vs JJK Jyvaskyla (7) 2-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
RoPS Rovaniemi vs OPS Oulu (8) -1.75 handicap
TPV Tampere vs HJK II (5)
Espoo vs Viikingit Helsinki (6) under 2.5 goals
PoPa Pori vs PS Kemi Kings (8) over 2.5 goals
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Siofok vs Fehervar (7) 0-1
Ujpest vs Gyori ETO FC (6) 1-1
Irish Premier League:
Sporting Fingal vs Shamrock Rovers (5) 1-1
Japanese J-League:
Gamba Osaka vs Montedio Yamagata (7) 2-0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga (6) 2-1
Kawasaki Frontale vs Vegalta Sendai (7) 2-0
Shonan Bellmare vs Shimizu S-Pulse (5) 1-1
Latvian Virsliga:
Jelgava vs Skonto Riga (8) 0-2
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Atletas vs Klaipeda (6) 1-1
Vetra Vilnius vs Siauliai (8) 1-0
Kruoja Pakruojis vs Zalgiris Vilnius (7) 1-2
Ekranas Panevezys vs Tauras Taurage (8) 2-0
Mexican Primera Division:
Puebla vs San Luis (5) 2-1
Toluca vs Pachuca (6) 1-1
America vs Jaguares (7) 2-0
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Stromsgodset vs Aalesund (6) 2-1
Viking Stavanger vs Sandefjord (8) 2-0
Rosenborg BK vs Haugesund (8) 2-0
Tromso vs Stabaek (6) 1-1
Honefoss vs Odd Grenland Skien (4) 1-2
Brann Bergen vs Molde (6) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Fredrikstad vs Moss (8) both sides to score
Bodo Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 (6) over 2.5 goals
Lov-Ham Bergen vs Tromsdalen (8)
Sandnes Ulf vs Ranheim (5)
Nybergsund vs Follo (6)
Alta vs Mjondalen (6)
Sogndal vs Strommen (8)
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Sport Colombia vs Libertad Asuncion (7) 0-1
Sportivo Luqueno vs Guarani Asuncion (6) 1-1
Sol de America vs Nacional Asuncion (6) 1-1
Sportivo Trinidense vs Cerro Porteno (7) 1-2
Peruvian Primera Division:
Cienciano vs Inti Gas (8) 2-0
Sport Huancayo vs Universidad San Martin (6) 2-1
Total Chalaco vs CNI (6) 1-1
Alianza Lima vs Juan Aurich (8) 2-0
Polish Super Cup:
Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia Bialystok (7) 1-0
Polish Liga 1:
Kolejarz Stroze vs Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala (5)
Lodzki KS vs Pogon Szczecin (6)
Romanian Liga:
Gaz Metan Medias vs Poli Timisoara (6) 1-1
Brasov vs Universitatea Cluj (4) 1-1
Dinamo Bucharest vs Sportul Studentesc (7) 1-0
Russian Premier League:
Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Moscow (5) 0-1, at least one red card in this game
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Rostov-na-Donu (8) 2-0
Singaporean S-League:
Tampines Rovers vs Armed Forces (6) over 2.5 goals
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Slovan Bratislava vs Zlate Moravce (7) 2-1
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Maribor vs Gorica (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Malmo vs GAIS Goteborg (8) 2-0
IFK Goteborg vs Kalmar (5) 1-1
Elfsorg Boras vs Gefle (8) 2-0
Swedish Superettan:
Ljungskile vs Orgryte (6) under 2.5 goals
Degerfors vs Falkenberg (5)
Osters vs Assyriska Sodertalje (4)
Syrianska Sodertalje vs Landskron BoIS (6) over 2.5 goals
Hammarby vs Trollhattan (7)
Brage vs IFK Norrkoping (6)
Vasby United vs Angelholm (5)
Jonkopings Sodra vs GIF Sundsvall (6) over 2.5 goals
Swiss Super League:
Basel vs St.Gallen (7) over 2.5 goals
Luzern vs Neuchatel Xamax (6) 2-1
Thun vs Grasshoppers Zurich (5) 1-1
Ukrainian Premier League:
Zorya Lugansk vs Karpaty Lviv (5) 1-1
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk vs Obolon Kiev (7) 1-0
Metalurg Donetsk vs Metalist Kharkiv (5) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!