Hertha BSC Berlin vs Bv09 Borussia Dortmund
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Bundesliga encounter between newly-promoted Hertha Berlin and reigning champions Borussia Dortmund.
There was a big quality gap between these two sides at the start of the season and if the last few games are anything to go by, that gap has somehow increased over the course of the season.
Hertha look done for, in my view. They’re not just losing easily but they’re generally losing heavily too. They’re yet to claim a point in the Bundesliga this year and have succumbed to four consecutive defeats, or five if we include their DFB Pokal game against Gladbach. They’re posing no attacking threat whatsoever and their Bundesliga 2 level defence is shipping goals so easily. They were drubbed 5-0 at struggling VfB Stuttgart in their last match and I don’t realistically see how things can or will improve for today’s hosts.
Visitors Dortmund have two big absentees today in the form of Kagawa and Gotze. Against a good side, this would probably concern me as those are two of Dortmund’s most integral attackers. However, Dortmund are a good few classes above Hertha this season and I fully expect it to show here, with or without the afore-mentioned. Dortmund still have in-form Lewandowski leading the line and plenty of support from Perisic and Grosskreutz so Dortmund really should have enough in their arsenal to do the business today. They’ve won all four of their Bundesliga games since returning from the winter break and have generally done so in a very efficient and impressive manner. I expect them to be even more motivated than normal today with their title rivals Bayern floundering, especially with Schweinsteiger out for a few weeks.
For me, Dortmund have all the necessary ingredients to make this a very easy away win. In my view, only a lacklustre display or a red card for the visitors will prevent Dortmund beating the handicap here so my call is the away win with a -1 Asian Handicap at 10/11, especially with the hosts missing full-back Lell and holding midfielder Ottl against the champions today.
Verdict: Bv09 Borussia Dortmund to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 10/11.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, please find my value tips listed below in no particular order:
Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
This has to be an over 2.5 goals game, surely? Perth Glory have never been the most assured at the back and the absence of Mitchell today reduces their capacity to keep a clean sheet even moreso. However, in attack, they’re really started to excel and I suppose it was only a matter of time, really. After all, they’ve got the immense Smeltz up front, not to mention the experienced duo Mehmet and Sterjovski. Miller, McGarry, and Dodd in midfield only increases their ability to attack, create chances, and score goals, which is precisely what they’ve been doing lately.
Should Perth Glory win the game? I suppose you could make a case for it, given the statistical side of things. However, Newcastle Jets will have something to say about that here following some immense displays of late, especially on the round. The return of inspirational Wheelhouse in midfield has been the catalyst for the Jets’ season to truly start. Brockie and Griffiths have looked full of confidence lately and despite the absence of youngster Kantarovski in midfield, you have to feel that the Jets are playing with enough confidence and potency to upset Perth Glory here.
Subsequently, I’ve no interest whatsoever in the 1×2 market here, irrespective of the fact that the Jets have a notoriously bad away record in the A-League. Instead, I’m opting for over 2.5 goals as these two sides should produce goals with the above in mind.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Kaiserslautern vs Borussia Moenchengladbach – away win at 6/5.
Bayern floundering will almost certainly inspire Dortmund today but why not Gladbach too? I’m surprised that they’re still up there but you can’t knock a side that’s won 66% of its games this season, especially considering that they’re not exactly mega rich and they’re not packed full of stars. Gladbach have a lot of hard-working players, a clever manager, and a brilliant goalscorer in Reus and that combination has proven to be enough for them time and time again this season. Gladbach don’t even need to operate at full capacity to win this one today, in my view. They’re not missing any players and they’re facing a Kaiserslautern side that has to score goals to avoid losing games and they’re no good at doing that this season. They managed to just beat the drop last time around but this time I’m not sure they can manage it. Seven goals scored in ten home games is simply not enough, especially when your defence is as vulnerable as Kaiserslautern’s is.
For me, the away win is well worth a bet here at 6/5.
Verdict: Borussia Moenchengladbach to win at 6/5.
Rangers vs Kilmarnock – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
There’s been a big fuss about Rangers entering administration and what it means to the club of late. It’s a big issue to deal with, of course, so Rangers have their hands full.
However, I’d be surprised to see that news lend a hand to Kilmarnock here. Rangers are like all Scottish sides – they’re at their best when they’re backed into a corner. I fully expect their fans to rally behind the team here against a Kilmarnock side that Rangers are used to beating. Rangers still have some notable absentees but I think there’ll be tremendous motivation here and precious little that Kilmarnock can do to prevent them from winning the game. I won’t rule out the possibility of some players being affected and that affecting the game as a result but I still expect a reaction from the hosts today. I’ve avoided the 1×2 market as you never know which players will be affected and in which way they’ll be affected but to me, taking over 2.5 goals at 4/5 looks an interesting option in this game.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Sparta Prague, Olimpia Asuncion, Real Madrid, St.Gallen.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Asian Champions League:
Pohang Steelers vs Chonburi (8) 2-0
Esteghlal vs Al Ittifaq (6) 2-1
Al Shabab vs Nefchi Baku (7) 2-1
Argentinian Primera Division:
Newell’s Old Boys vs Argentinos Juniors (5) 1-0
Arsenal de Sarandi vs Atletico Rafaela (7) 2-1
All Boys vs Colon de Santa Fe (4) 1-1
Australian A-League:
Central Coast Mariners vs Wellington Phoenix (5) 1-1
Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory (7) 2-0
Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Austrian Bundesliga:
Wacker Innsbruck vs Admira Wacker (6) 2-1
SV Mattersburg vs SV Ried (7) under 2.5 goals
SV Kapfenberg vs Wiener Neustadt (6) 1-0
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna (5) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Lokeren vs AA Gent (5) 1-0
Sint-Truiden vs Lierse SK (4) 1-1
OH Leuven vs Cercle Brugge (5) 2-1
Mechelen vs Germinal Beerschot (7) 2-0
Mons vs Racing Genk (5) 2-2
Chilean Primera Division:
Universidad de Concepcion vs Cobresal (6) 2-1
Santiago Wanderers vs Audax Italiano (5) 2-2
Deportes Iquique vs Rangers (5) 1-0
Palestino vs Universidad de Chile (6) 1-2
La Serena vs O’Higgins (4) 1-1
Colombian Primera A:
Boyaca Chico vs Once Caldas Manizales (6) 1-1
Deportes Tolima vs La Equidad Bogota (7) 2-1
Millonarios Bogota vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin (4) 1-1
Independiente Medellin vs Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota (5) 1-0
Cypriot Division 1:
Aris Limassol vs Anagennisi Deryneia (6) 2-1
Omonia Nicosia vs Olympiakos Nicosia (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Enosis Neon Paralimni vs Apollon Limassol (5) 1-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Marila Pribram vs Slavia Prague (5) 2-1
Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Kralove (7) 2-1
Sparta Prague vs Slovacko (8) 2-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Manta vs Emelec Guayaquil (5) 1-1
Olmedo Riobamba vs Tecnico Universitario (6) 2-1
Barcelona Guayaquil vs LDU Loja (7) 2-0
English Championship:
Leeds United vs Doncaster Rovers (4) at least one red card in this game
Barnsley vs Portsmouth (5)
Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City (5)
Ipswich Town vs Cardiff City (6) over 2.5 goals
Southampton vs Derby County (7)
Crystal Palace vs Watford (4) both sides to score
Peterborough United vs Bristol City (5) over 2.5 goals
English FA Cup:
Chelsea vs Birmingham City (6) 1-0
Everton vs Blackpool (6) 2-1
Norwich City vs Leicester City (6) 2-1
Millwall vs Bolton Wanderers (4) 2-2
Sunderland vs Arsenal (5) 1-1
Finnish Liiga Cup:
KuPS Kuopio vs JJK Jyvaskyla (5) 2-2, at least one red card in this game
VPS Vaasa vs Jaro Pietarsaari (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
French Ligue 1;
AC Ajaccio vs Stade Brestois (6) 1-0
Stade Malherbe de Caen vs Evian Thonon Gaillard (5) 1-1
Dijon FCO vs OGC Nice (6) 0-0
Lorient vs LOSC Lille (5) 1-1
AS Nancy-Lorraine vs Toulouse (5) 2-1
Sochaux vs Auxerre (6) 2-1
Olympique de Marseille vs Valenciennes (6) 1-0
German Bundesliga:
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Augsburg (7) 2-0
Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Nurnberg vs Koln (6) 1-0
Kaiserslautern vs Borussia Moenchengladbach (7) 0-1
Hertha BSC Berlin vs Bv09 Borussia Dortmund (7) 0-2
SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich (5) 0-1
Greek Super League:
Xanthi vs Asteras Tripolis (7) 1-0
Ergotelis vs Panathinaikos (5) 1-1
AEK Athens vs OFI Crete (7) 1-0
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Bnei Sakhnin (7) 2-1
Maccabi Netanya vs MS Ashdod (6) 1-1
Hapoel Haifa vs Hapoel Rishon Lezion (6) 1-0
Hapoel Be’er Sheva vs Hapoel Petah Tikva (5) 0-0
Hapoel Acre vs Ironi Ramat Hasharon (6) 1-1
Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona (6) 2-1
Italian Serie A:
Juventus vs Catania (6) 1-0
Mexican Primera Division:
Cruz Azul vs Pumas UNAM (7) 1-0
Queretaro vs Tijuana (6) 1-0
Santos Laguna vs Monterrey (6) 1-1
Tigres UANL vs Atlas (7) 2-0
Guadalajara vs San Luis (7) 2-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs RKC Waalwijk (7) over 2.5 goals
ADO Den Haag vs Excelsior Rotterdam (7) over 2.5 goals
De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo (6) 2-1
Heracles Almelo vs Roda JC Kerkrade (7) 2-0
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Sol de America vs Rubio Nu (5) 2-1
Guarani Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Olimpia Asuncion vs Independiente FBC (8) 2-0
Peruvian Primera Division:
Sporting Cristal vs Cobresol (7) 2-0
Alianza Lima vs Leon de Huanuco (7) 2-0
Jose Galvez vs Juan Aurich (6) 1-1
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Widzew Lodz vs Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala (6) 2-1
Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk (5) 1-1
Slask Wroclaw vs Ruch Chorzow (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Gil Vicente vs Sporting Braga (6) 0-1
Scottish Premier League:
Dundee United vs St.Mirren (7) 2-0
Dunfermline Athletic vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle (4) 1-2
Motherwell vs Hearts (7) 1-0
Rangers vs Kilmarnock (7) over 2.5 goals
Spanish Primera Liga:
Getafe vs Espanyol (6) 2-1
Real Madrid vs Racing Santander (8) 2-0
Sevilla CF vs Osasuna (6) 1-0
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Real Valladolid vs Girona (7)
Deportivo La Coruna vs Barcelona II (7) over 2.5 goals
Cartagena vs Sabadell (5)
Villarreal II vs Alcorcon (4)
Huesca vs Guadalajara (7)
Deportivo Xerez vs Alcoyano (7)
Almeria vs Real Murcia (7) over 2.5 goals
Swiss Super League:
FC Zurich vs Thun (7) 1-0
Swiss Challenge League:
Wohlen vs SC Kriens (6) over 2.5 goals
Etoile Carouge vs Wil (5)
St.Gallen vs Delemont (8)
Turkish Super Lig:
Ankaragucu vs Samsunspor (7) 0-2
Antalyaspor vs Manisaspor (7) 2-0
Fenerbahce vs Sivasspor (7) 2-1
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Cerrito vs Cerro (6) 0-0
Fenix vs El Tanque Sisley (7) 1-0
Rentistas vs Cerro Largo (5) 1-1
Welsh Premier League:
Neath Athletic vs Prestatyn Town (7) over 2.5 goals
Carmarthen Town vs Airbus UK (4) 1-0
Newtown vs Afan Lido (6) 1-1
Llanelli vs The New Saints (6) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!