Arsenal de Sarandi vs Argentinos Juniors
FreeAfter a predictably terrible round of international games, I hope to restore at least partial parity with some club games. Today’s featured game is the Primera Division encounter between Arsenal de Sarandi and Argentinos Juniors. The hosts have started the season well whereas things couldn’t be going much worse for the visiting reigning champions after a summer of departures so already I’m leaning towards the home win here.
Arsenal de Sarandi aren’t generally a side I rate nowadays as they’re a bit of a live wire with a general lack of consistency. However, their start to their current campaign totally contradicts what I’ve just said so I’m happy to ride it for now. Three wins in four games and seven goals scored along the way says that Arsenal are serious about the title this year although I can’t say I personally considered them to win this one! Arsenal owe their form largely to ex-River Plate hitman Luciano Leguizamon, who has already scored three goals for Arsenal in this campaign. Ex-Velez Sarsfield target man Mauro Obolo compliments his pacy strike partner well too, not to mention the fact that he’s already registered twice this season himself. Two out of Arsenal’s last three wins have come on the road, which demonstrates their ability to score goals, not to mention their confidence. They scored two goals in this fixture last season and with minimal pressure on this fairly unimportant side, it’s worthwhile to consider their free-flowing football as a rather potent method of finding the net, particularly as their opponents are under massive pressure as the reigning champions.
Visitors Argentinos Juniors have really struggled to cope without their sold key players in the summer, as you’d expect. They lost Canuto to Maccabi Haifa, Coria to Villarreal, Caruzzo to Boca Juniors, Pavlovich to Necaxa, Peric to Olimpia Asuncion, and Sosa to Gaziantepspor. Without Sosa and Pavlovich, I struggle to see where the Argentinos goals are going to come from and that has indeed proved to be their problem this season with no goals scored for three consecutive games. Only midfielder Ortigoza brings a prominent goalscoring record into this campaign for Argentinos and that’s simply not enough. I can accept Argentinos losing one half of their strike duo; that’s how Argetinian football progresses, after all. However, losing both is a real hammer-blow and you have to feel that they’re going to struggle a lot this season. They played well last match at home to giants River Plate but despite that, they still failed to find the net. They’ve lost back-to-back away games against Velez Sarsfield and Independiente respectively and whereas they’re hardly condemning results, the fact is that they’re not presenting a goal threat so how can they be taken seriously? Rumours are that ex-River Plate attacker Gustavo Oberman may be injured for this game and his absence virtually removes all attacking potency from this side, in my opinion, so I really don’t fancy the reigning champions tonight.
Arsenal de Sarandi are unfashionable and unfancied but let’s face it – their football style produces goals, which is largely due to no weight of expectation upon the minnows. They’ve looked good in recent games too so with Obolo and Leguizamon looking menacing in attack, you have to feel that the hosts will beat their impotent opponents at decent odds of evens.
Verdict: Arsenal de Sarandi to win at evens.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Ceara vs Vasco da Gama – away win with draw no bet at 6/5.
As expected, Ceara’s games under their new manager have started going over 2.5 goals as their new manager feels that the way to prevent their slump in the table is to attack instead of defend. Whereas that’s a noble aspiration, it’s a very stupid one to take given that Ceara’s sole strength is defence. They don’t have a powerful attack and that’s shown by the number of goals that they score. Admittedly, attacking more will give them more opportunities but in Serie A, if their defence is left exposed, then they’ll be horribly burned and that’s what is starting to happen. Gone are the days of Ceara “under 2.5 goals”, in my opinion – many overs should be coming with their new manager although who knows how long he’ll last? He’s their third manager already this season and he’s not made a good impression on me.
This is a fascinating game for visitors Vasco da Gama as they’re managed by Gusmao, who was in charge of Ceara just months ago. Ceara is effectively his side as he got them promoted and moulded them into an unbeatable unit. They’ve looked incredibly susceptible ever since his departure and it’s no surprise that Vasco look stronger than ever under his reign. Interestingly enough, Gusmao is the only manager in the division yet to lose a Serie A game this season and I don’t fancy that to change tonight as he knows this Ceara side inside out. Ten consecutive games without defeat says that Vasco have a massive momentum boost here, particularly as five of those were away from home against the likes of Flamengo, Sao Paulo, and Gremio, keeping three clean sheets out of those five games. Vasco generally aren’t great away from home so I understand the odds here but they’re by far the better of these two sides under talented Gusmao and with him being fully aware of the hosts’ strengths and weaknesses, you have to fancy in-form Vasco to take advantage of little Ceara here.
What a story it would be is Gusmao was to coach the first side to win at Ceara this season, especially as he’s the predominant reason they haven’t lost at home! Given that I don’t expect Vasco to concede in this game, I have to fancy the away win with here with good odds of draw no bet as if they get a lead in this game then they really should be able to hold it.
Verdict: Vasco da Gama to win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Deportes Tolima vs Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota – over 2.5 goals at 21/20.
I can’t go into this one much more than to say that two of Colombia’s most potent sides lock horns here with the hosts largely unable to defend and the visitors rarely travelling well. Tolima average scoring two goals per home game at the moment and have won all three games whilst Independiente have started impressively away from home with two wins and one draw from three away games, which is a virtually unheard of record in Colombia, scoring nearly two goals per game along the way. Two out of the last three games between these two Colombian giants have gone over 2.5 goals and I fancy this one to tonight for the above reasons at generous odds.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 21/20.
Warta Poznan vs Flota Swinoujscie – home win at 7/5.
This is one of four Liga 1 home wins that I like today, bizarrely!
It’s one of the riskiest too with Warta not playing to their expectied pre-season potential too. New signing Zbigniew Zakrewski hasn’t yet had the desire effect on the team although his quality in this division is unquestionable. Instead, it’s ageing warhorse Pitor Reiss who has been dragging Warta along by the scruff of their necks but the partnership between himself and Zakrewski is always threatening to blossom and when it does, I expect some very good Warta displays. I was impressed with Warta’s win against giants LKS Lodz although truth be told, Warta were outplayed in the first-half and yet came out in the second-half and laid waste to an abject LKS Lodz. I respect the belief in the side after that game and the unquestionable momentum as a result but still approach this game with caution as Warta are not the finished article yet. Since then, Warta surprisingly lost a Polish Cup game at minnows Olsztyn before winning at relegation-threatened Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski but again, winning tough is the only way to get out of this division and two consecutive Liga 1 wins says that they’re beginning to realise that. Their opponents Flota are generally very hard to beat and they’ve actually done very well this year, winning three out of their opening five games. Even more impressively, Flota have won two out of three away games, which is a bizarre record for a side that rarely travels well. However, I would attribute that to the weakness of relegation-threatened Ostrowiec and Dolcan Zabki respectively rather than some new-found away ability of Flota. I read much more into their defeat at a fairly unrecognisable Sandecja Nowy Sacz as to the real Flota as little has changed in this Flota side that lost eight out of seventeen on the road last season, scoring a paltry twelve goals along the way. Flota are good defensively but don’t score enough and I think that even one good half of football from Warta in this game should be enough to see them win it so the home win is my call in this game today.
Verdict: Warta Poznan to win at 7/5.
Gorzow Wielkopolski vs Odra Wodzislaw – home win at 11/10.
I don’t like going against recently-relegated Odra as their financial plight appears to be galvanising their side rather than dismantling it. Nonetheless, it’s factual to point out that Odra have put in some rather poor displays on the road this season and a draw at home to a poor Kluczbork side in their last game showed that reality is starting to hit home as Odra are beginning to struggle. It’s got to worry the visitors that Gorzow Wielkopoloski are finally beginning to play to their potential by finding the net on a much more consistent basis with eight goals scored in five games. Gorzow are the traditional Liga 1 home side as two wins and one draw at home already this season indicates all too well. They’ve struggled a little of late themselves but back-to-back away wins both in the Polish Cup and the Liga 1 gives Gorzow much-needed momentum ahead of this important game today. Gorzow are relying a little too heavily on Drozdowicz’s goals and they need to start contributing more to his tally before their season is ruined. However, for the time being, his goals are enough and they should be today with Drozdowicz having already scored four goals in five games. The difference between these two sides today should be two factors – momentum and finesse, and both favour the hosts, so I call the home win at 11/10 although I expect a real battle between these two today!
Verdict: Gorzow Wielkopolski to win at 11/10.
Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala vs LKS Lodz – home win at 13/10.
Podsbeskidzie have started this season amazingly well with four wins in five games and it’s basically because they score a hell of a lot more goals than anyone else. They average scoring three goals per game currently and that record is virtually unheard of in Liga 1. They won 6-1 at Katowice last match and although Katowice really aren’t playing well, they’re actually a very good side so I was massively impressed with their display in that game, and it’s a result which should give them a massive momentum boost today – not that they needed it! I like the way that the hosts spread their goals around the team as it does show that they’re more than just one man, which makes them a dangerous opponent in any game, really. They’re a tough side to beat at home, Podsbeskidzie, but now that they’ve added potency to their side, they look a very dangerous side ineded to face. Today’s game should show how serious they are or aren’t about Liga 1 promotion as they face one of the favourites, LKS Lodz. The visitors are yet to start firing on all cylinders, partially due to some unlucky games and partially due to some abject displays. Either way, this is not the usual LKS Lodz yet as nervy extra-time win at Olimpia Elblag in the Polish Cup and a nervous home win against a poor Gornik Leczna in their last game indicated all too well. They were abysmal in the second-half against Warta Poznan prior to that and that’s the game that really turned them around and made their heads drop. They’ve not really recovered from that and whereas I cannot deny that they’re a match for their hosts today in terms of quality, I can only observe how much the momentum favours the hosts and feel that they could spring a surprise today. The odds are generous for a reason here so be wary but I do fancy the home win ultimately.
Verdict: Podsbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala to win at 13/10.
Ruch Radzionkow vs Nieciecza – home win at 21/20.
Both of these two sides are expected to be amongst the relegation battlers this season and understandably so with both sides having only just achieved Liga 1 status. However, only one of the to sides have demonstrated any kind of ability in this division and that’s hosts Ruch. Both sides have basically been destroyed away from home, as you’d expect, but the ability to stay in this division is drawn from the strength of your home displays and although both sides know that, only Ruch have actioned it. Ruch’s big problem is not scoring enough as their defence is generally rather reliable with no side able to penetrate them at will so far. If they get a goal, however, they’re usually good for the win. Visitors Niecieza really look in trouble, however. They simply cannot defend and although they register the odd goal, it’s generally no use if you concede a lot more than you score! They’ve lost four consecutive games and have conceded ten goals along the way. They’ve failed to score in two out of their three away games so far and although I’m sure they’ll fight Ruch tooth and nail, the hosts simply look more composed and frankly better than the visitors. Although this is far from a dead cert, I still think Ruch are a tad too generously priced here so my call is the home win.
Verdict: Ruch Radzionkow to win at 21/20.
Accumulator fodder:
Zambia, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Corinthians, HB Koge, Partizan Belgrade, Tampines Rovers.
Recommended bets:
Again, I don’t like any multiples today – sorry guys!
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
African Nations Qualifiers:
Cape Verde Islands vs Mali (4) 1-1
Zambia vs Comoros (9) -1.5 handicap
Mauritius vs Cameroon (8) 1-2
Morocco vs Central African Republic (7) under 2.5 goals
South Africa vs Niger (7) under 2.5 goals
Ivory Coast vs Rwanda (8) -1.5 handicap
Sudan vs Congo (5) 1-1
Uganda vs Angola (7) 1-1
Guinea-Bissau vs Kenya (6) 2-1
Botswana vs Togo (5) 1-0, draw no bet
Tunisia vs Malawi (6) 2-1
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Andorra vs Latvia (7) 0-2
Moldova vs Faroe Islands (4) 1-1
Serbia vs Croatia (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Republic of Macedonia vs Greece (4) over 2.5 goals
Azerbaijan vs Albania (5) 1-2, draw no bet
Turkey vs Georgia (7) over 2.5 goals
Hungary vs Wales (6) 1-1
International Friendlies:
Thailand vs India (7) 2-0
Japan vs Paraguay (7) 1-1
Poland vs Ukraine (6) 0-0
Canada vs Peru (6) 1-1
El Salvador vs Honduras (5) over 2.5 goals
Mexico vs Ecuador (7) over 2.5 goals
Argentinian Primera Division:
All Boys vs Olimpo (5) 2-1
Boca Juniors vs San Lorenzo de Almagro (6) 2-1
Arsenal de Sarandi vs Argentinos Juniors (7) 2-0
Newells Old Boys vs Independiente (6) 1-1
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Heart vs North Queensland Fury (7) 1-1
Sydney FC vs Adelaide United (6) 2-1
Brazilian Serie A:
Botafogo vs Gremio (7) 2-1
Ceara vs Vasco da Gama (6) 0-1, draw no bet
Corinthians vs Goias (8) 2-0
Bulgarian A PFG:
Sliven vs Beroe (6) 1-1
Kaliakra vs Minior Pernik (3) 1-0
Colombian Primera A:
Deportes Tolima vs Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Boyaca Chico (7) 2-1
Danish 1st Division:
Hobro vs Naestved (6)
Bronshoj vs HB Koge (8)
English League One:
Milton Keynes Dons vs Hartlepool United (5)
Notts County vs Yeovil Town (6)
Oldham Athletic vs Bristol Rovers (6)
Huddersfield Town vs Bournemouth (7) over 2.5 goals
Southampton vs Rochdale (7)
Tranmere Rovers vs Peterborough United (6)
Exeter City vs Charlton Athletic (7)
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Leyton Orient (5)
Carlisle United vs Swindon Town (6)
Walsall vs Colchester United (5)
English League Two:
Oxford United vs Morecambe (5) draw no bet
Aldershot Town vs Northampton Town (6)
Barnet vs Cheltenham Town (6)
Stevenage vs Crewe Alexandra (4)
Chesterfield vs Lincoln City (7)
Bury vs Gillingham (6)
Accrington Stanley vs Wycombe Wanderers (6)
Macclesfield Town vs Stockport County (5)
Shrewsbury Town vs Rotherham United (6)
Southend United vs Torquay United (4) over 2.5 goals
Bradford City vs Port Vale (5)
Burton Albion vs Hereford United (5) over 2.5 goals
Finnish Ykkonen:
PS Kemi Kings vs TPV Tampere (6) both sides to score
KPV Kokkola vs Viikingit Helsinki (6)
Jippo Joensuu vs KooTeePee Kotka (7) under 2.5 goals
Hameelinna vs FC Espoo (5)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Szolnoki MAV vs Szombathelyi Haladas (6) 2-1
Italian Serie B:
Torino vs Crotone (4)
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Cerro Porteno vs Rubio Nu (7) over 2.5 goals
Polish Liga 1:
Warta Poznan vs Flota Swinoujscie (6)
Sandecja Nowy Sacz vs Dolcan Zabki (7)
Kluczbork vs Katowice (5)
Gorzow Wielkopolski vs Odra Wodzislaw (6)
Ruch Radzionkow vs Nieciecza (6)
Gornik Leczna vs Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski (6)
Kolejarz Stroze vs Gornik Polkowice (6)
Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala vs LKS Lodz (5)
Serbian Super Liga:
Partizan Belgrade vs Hajduk Kula (8) 2-0
Singaporean S-League:
Tampines Rovers vs Young Lions (8) over 2.5 goals
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Cartagena vs Elche (5)
Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Girona (6)
Huesca vs Las Palmas (5)
Villarreal II vs Albacete (6)
Recreativo de Huelva vs Real Bets Balompie (5) draw no bet
Cordoba vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (4)
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Miramar Misiones vs Danubio (5) 1-1
Bella Vista vs Rampla Juniors (6) 1-1
El Tanque Sisley vs Club Nacional de Montevideo (4) 2-1, draw no bet
Enjoy your free betting tips!