Andorra vs Slovakia
FreeFor membership details go here or alternatively go here for consultancy details.
Today’s secondary featured game is the UEFA European Championship Qualifier between Andorra and Slovakia. Andorra have been the rubbing rags of European international football for some time now but I’ve seen a lot of improvement in them over the past year and I think pricing Slovakia at 1/20 here is a mistake.
Don’t get me wrong – Slovakia could and probably should win this game. However, let’s examine this game on more than a “LOL WHO ARE ANDORRA?” basis, shall we?
Andorra have started scoring goals, which is unusual but amusing. They were already a physical side that had started defending well but they’ve scored twice in their last four games, scoring against Moldova and Republic of Ireland respectively, so let’s not be too dismissive of the minnows. They matched Russia during their 0-2 defeat against the Eastern European nation, in my view, but lacked the finesse to make it count, which is of course their most pressing issue. However, consider that the +2.5 handicap advantage means that they’d have won six out of their last seven games and you’ll see what I mean regarding their improvement of late. The thing is with Andorra is that due to a lack of quality in their country, the same bunch of players have played together for a long time now and they’re actually really experienced! With a +2.5 goal head start, Andorra would have won seven out of their last eight home games so the hosts today really shouldn’t be totally written off as a bunch of postmen that got drunk and formed a football team!
Happily, there’s a big plus in who Andorra are playing too – Slovakia. I like Slovakia but they’re the same type of side as Russia, who struggled here previously – solid defensively but really lacking in creativity. Slovakia only have two players that can make things happen in their team and that’s Hamsik and Weiss – the rest are workers but don’t bring anything special to Slovakian displays. In attack, Slovakia are predictable with Vittek and Jendrisek bringing the pace and Sebo and Holosko being the big target men. Durica, Skrtel, Cech, and Pekarik forge a defence more than capable of keeping most European opponents out but I look at this Slovakian team and one thing I simply do not see on a consistent basis is goals. Sapara has deadly set pieces and Stoch has occasional brilliance but they’re temporary features; from a consistency perspective, Slovakia are not a creative side and as such, I expect a very physical game between these two sides.
In addition to the above, Slovakia somehow lost 2-1 at battling Luxembourg last match and Luxembourg aren’t much better than Andorra! They’ve not won in four consecutive games and they’ve conceded a lot of goals during that time. Slovakia would have lost all of their last fourteen away games in all competitions had the hosts been given a +2.5 goal head start in each game and that run includes trips to Luxembourg, San Marino, Armenia, Iceland, and Cyprus. Andorra are well-organised enough to give Slovakia a really good game here and although the visitors should have enough to edge this game, giving Andorra a +2.5 goal head start at 4/5 looks a bargain to me today.
Slovakia squad:
Goalkeepers – Mucha, Kello, Pernis
Defenders – Skrtel, Durica, Cech, Pekarik, Salata, Luksik
Midfielders – Hamsik, Sapara, Stoch, Kopunek, Kona
Strikers – Vittek, Holosko, Jendrisek, Sebo, Piroska
Verdict: Andorra to win with a +2.5 goal handicap at 4/5.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Romania – home win at 6/5.
I’ve never been wholly convinced by Bosnia without long-term absentee Bajramovic in midfield but they should have enough to win this one today. Romania have seldom been in a worse state than they are now with only Mutu really capable of igniting their team and he’s supposedly got tonsilitis! Romania have doubts over Chivu, Sapunaru, and Alexe with flu and generally lack a lot of potency in their team, especially with Marica drastically out-of-favour in Germany. Zicu’s had a terrific campaign thus far and the emergance of Galatasaray striker Stancu and the pacey Torje of Dinamo Bucharest give Romania some hope here, as does Goian’s threat from set pieces, but this isn’t the Romania side that once was and I therefore expect them to struggle here, especially with no Radoi here either! Bosnia’s defence may be susceptible, especially without Bajramovic sat in front of the back four, but their attacking ability is very strong indeed. I’m not overly fond of the overrated Edin Dzeko but when Bosnia build their play around him, it tends to work due to his height and thus Bosnia are a dangerous attacking side, especially with Ibisevic alongside him. The support that Bosnia bring from their midfield with Pjanic, Misimovic, Stilic, Medunjanin, and now even Ibricic makes this Bosnia side frighteningly good on the ball and a disorientated and under-strength Romania side should really struggle against them today as a result.
Romania are one of those sides for me; if I bet against them, they don’t lose. If I bet on them to win, they don’t win. However logic points to a home win here and as are Bosnia are generously priced, my call is the home win.
Bosnia-Herzegovina squad:
Goalkeepers – Sehic, Avdukic, Hasagic
Defenders – Mujdza, Pandza, Spahic, Mravac, Subasic, Vranjes, Besic
Midfielders – Rahimic, Pjanic, Misimovic, Lulic, Ibricic, Medunjanin, Stilic, Maletic, Visca, Handzic
Strikers – Muslimovic, Dzeko, Ibisevic
Romania squad:
Goalkeepers – Lung Jr., Tatarusanu, Pantilimon
Defenders – Sapuranu, Chivu, Rat, Tamas, Goian, Gardos, Rapa, Salageanu
Midfielders – Alexe, Ropatan, Zicu, Deac, Torje, Florescu, Muresan, Cocis
Strikers – Marica, Mutu, Stancu, Alexe
Verdict: Bosnia-Herzegovina to win at 6/5.
Norway vs Denmark – home win at 11/8.
Norway lost Carew to injury but anyone would think it’s the end of the world by the way people are going on about it on forums! Admittedly, he brings a great target man to their attack but with the way Abdellaoue has played at Hannover 96 this season, the pace and trickery of Huseklepp, the experience of Iversen, and the set pieces of Gamst Pedersen, I don’t see a terrific problem for the hosts. Goalscoring has long been an enemy of Norway’s but they’ve been really good over the last couple of years despite a lengthy barren spell. They’ve won an impressive seven times from eight home games with only Ukraine winning here with both sides resting players in that game. Norway have beaten France, Portugal, Finland, and Scotland during that time so they do need to be taken seriously here, in my view – they’re rapidly beginning to become a force again as a nation.
Visitors Denmark have the scintillating Eriksen in midfield and he’ll give them a chance whether they play well or not against local rivals Norway. However, hit-and-miss Bendtner doesn’t convince me in attack whatsoever! Junker has done well in the Eredivisie but he’s not a striker for this level, in my view. Rommedahl brings great experience and movement for the Danish attack but he’s not really what I call a striker, as much as I’ve listed him as one in the squad list – he’s a creator. Without Eriksen in midfield and Rommedahl dropping into space, this Denmark side is horribly bereft of creavity and I think Norway bring a better team to this game than their opponents for the first time in a long time. Denmark had important defender Kjaer and regular Bendtner both injured in training lately and both are reportedly doubts for this game. If Kjaer misses this game then that matches up very well indeed with Carew’s absence for Norway in terms of importance for each respective side and ultimately, I just don’t see anything but a Denmark struggle here.
Derbies are never easy to call so be careful here. However, Norway look to have a much more potent and able side than Denmark do nowadays so my call is the generously priced home win today.
Norway squad:
Goalkeepers – Pettersen, Jarstein
Defenders – Hogli, Waehler, Hangeland, Riise, Ruud, Parr, Rogne
Midfielders – Riise, Hauge, Gamst Pedersen, Tettey, Grindheim, Grindheim, Yttegard Jenssen
Strikers – Abdellaoue, Braaten, Iversen, Huseklepp
Denmark squad:
Goalkeepers – Christiansen, Lindegaard, Sorenson
Defenders – Svensson, Agger, Wass, Jacobsen, Jorgensen, Kjaer, Simon Poulsen
Midfielders – Christian Poulsen, Eriksen, Jakob Poulsen, Lorentzen, Schone, Silberbauer, Enevoldsen, Kvist
Strikers -Rommedahl, Krohn-Deli, Junker, Bendtner, Pedersen
Verdict: Norway to win at 11/8.
South Africa vs Egypt – away win at 19/10.
Egypt may not have their leading strikers in Zaki and Mido in this squad but neither have been at the top of their game for some time so it’s no surprise. Zidan is a more than able deputy, in my view! South Africa is never an easy away game for any side but I cannot help but try and play on the fact that they don’t score goals, especially at home. They have pace, tenacity, and even skill but they really miss a Benni McCarthy style finisher nowadays and it means that they rarely pose a threat to the opposing goal. Egypt, however, are sound tactically and potent in front of goal. They’ve won five consecutive games ahead of this encounter so I think that the odds on the away win are decent enough to take a chance on.
South Africa squad:
Goalkeepers – Khune, Sandilands, Keet
Defenders – Gaxa, Sangweni, Ngcongca, Gould, Khumalo, Cloete, Hlela
Midfielders – Claasen, Tshabalala, Pienaar, Serero, Letsholonyane, Dikgacoi, Jali, Khuboni, Myeni, Segolela
Strikers – Somma, Parker, Erasmus, Mphela
Egypt squad:
Goalkeepers – El-Hadary, Al Sayed, Sobhy
Defenders – Fathallah, Al-Muhammadi, Nagieb, Fathy, Moawad, Farag, Gomaa
Midfielders – Soliman, Saleh, Rabo, Shawky, Shikabala, Aboutrika, Al-Sulaya, Ghaly
Strikers – Zidan, Ali, Gedo, Belal, Hamdy
Verdict: Egypt to win at 19/10.
Bronshoj vs Naestved – home win at evens.
I can’t substantiate this in any other way than to say that Bronshoj have done really well since promotion and have always made the most of their home games. Naestved lost their potency of last season and always struggle away from home, especially this season. Naestved are bottom of the league and are leaking goals for fun and Bronshoj have enough to win this game at decent odds.
Verdict: Bronshoj to win at evens.
Nacional Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno – away win at 7/5.
For me, Cerro Porteno have the best attack in Paraguay and that’s what should count here. They’re not the most reliable at the back but with no Copa Libertadores games currently distracting them, I think we’ll see them entirely focused on this derby against Nacional Asuncion and that makes them a dangerous side here. Nacional have played well this season and are a decent side but they’re not particularly special, in my view. You can expect cards and goals here but for me there’s only one winner and that’s Cerro Porteno at 7/5.
Verdict: Cerro Porteno to win at 7/5.
Odra Wodzislaw vs Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala – away win at 4/5.
Big quality mismat here. Odra’s financial issues have dragged them into the doldrums and they’ve been shambolic since their return from the winter break. Podbeskidzie are one of the top dogs in Liga 1 and although their domestic form slipped as they focused on their two games against Ekstraklasa giants Wisla Krakow in the Puchar Polski, they now turn their attention back to ther domestic campaign and that’s bad news for Odra. Odra battle hard but have little ability nowadays. Podbeskidzie have a good attack and really should make 4/5 a bargain price on them winning this game today.
Verdict: Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala to win at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Germany, Brighton & Hove Albion, Flota Swinoujscie.
Recommended bets:
Germany and Norway at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA European Championship Qualifiers:
Armenia vs Russia (6) 2-1
Wales vs England (5) both sides to score
Bulgaria vs Switzerland (6) 0-1
Georgia vs Croatia (6) both sides to score
Cyprus vs Iceland (5) 1-2
Israel vs Latvia (6) 2-1
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Romania (6) 2-1
Albania vs Belarus (7) under 2.5 goals
Germany vs Kazakhstan (10) -2.5 handicap
Andorra vs Slovakia (6) under 2.5 goals
Norway vs Denmark (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Malta vs Greece (6) under 2.5 goals
Republic of Ireland vs Republic of Macedonia (6) 2-1
African Nations Qualifiers:
Kenya vs Angola (5) 1-1
Malawi vs Togo (7) 1-1
Tanzania vs Central African Republic (7) 1-0
Chad vs Botswana (6) 0-1
South Africa vs Egypt (6) 1-2
Senegal vs Cameroon (5) both sides to score, at least one red card in this game
Rwanda vs Burundi (6) 1-0
Guinea-Bissau vs Uganda (7) 1-0
Burkina Faso vs Namibia (6) over 2.5 goals
Sudan vs Swaziland (4) 0-1
International Friendlies:
Ecuador vs Colombia (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Portugal vs Chile (6) 1-1
Mexico vs Paraguay (6) 2-1
Argentinian Primera Division:
Huracan vs Gimnasia De La Plata (6) 2-1
Olimpo vs San Lorenzo de Almagro (5) 0-1
Atletico Lanus vs Racing Club Avellaneda (4) 2-2
River Plate vs Newells Old Boys (6) 1-1
Chilean Primera Division:
O’Higgins vs Palestino (7) 2-0
Colombian Primera A:
Itagui Ditaires vs Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota (6) 1-1
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs America de Cali (7) 2-0
Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima (6) 1-1
Danish 1st Division:
Hobro vs Fyn (5) both sides to score
Bronshoj vs Naestved (7)
English League One:
Bournemouth vs Charlton Athletic (5)
Colchester United vs Exeter City (5) both sides to score
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Sheffield Wednesday (6) over 2.5 goals
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Swindon Town (8)
Leyton Orient vs Yeovil Town (7)
English League Two:
Aldershot Town vs Accrington Stanley (6)
Morecambe vs Wycombe Wanderers (5)
Port Vale vs Bury (6)
Stockport County vs Southend United (5) over 2.5 goals
Macclesfield Town vs Stevenage (6)
Bradford City vs Shrewsbury Town (6) both sides to score
Barnet vs Chesterfield (5)
Italian Serie B:
Ascoli vs Torino (7)
Padova vs Atalanta Bergamo (5) at least one red card in this game
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Nacional Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno (6) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Independiente FBC vs Libertad Asuncion (6) 0-1
Polish Liga 1:
Flota Swinoujscie vs Dolcan Zabki (8)
Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski vs Piast Gliwice (6)
Odra Wodzislaw vs Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala (7)
Pogon Szczecin vs Sandecja Nowy Sacz (6)
Katowice vs Bogdanka Leczna (6)
Gornik Polkowice vs Gorzow Wielkopolski (7)
Singaporean S-League:
Young Lions vs Albirex Niigata (7) 2-0
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Cordoba vs Gimnastic de Tarragona (6) under 2.5 goals
Numancia vs Huesca (6) over 2.5 goals
Cartagena vs Villarreal II (6) over 2.5 goals
Girona vs Albacete (7)
Las Palmas vs Ponferradina (6)
Barcelona II vs Alcorcon (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Celta de Vigo vs Recreativo de Huelva (5) under 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!