Young Boys Bern vs Basel
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Swiss Super League heavyweight clash between Young Boys Bern and Basel.
Young Boys Bern have signed Danish midfield engine Silberbauer from FC Copenhagen, promising Czech defender Lecjaks from Viktoria Plzen, and Tunisian attacker Ben Khalifa on loan from VFL Wolfsburg pre-season. However, their losses are more damaging than their signings are beneficial with two essential midfielders – Lulic and Doubai respectively – both leaving the club. Doubai in particular will be sorely missed – I don’t think anyone played more minutes for Young Boys Bern than he did last season. Silberbauer is a good player with bags of experience but it takes time to adjust new players and with half of Young Boys Bern’s midfield having moved on, they’re left relying on emerging strike duo N’Tsama and Mayuka to bail them out. That might work in most Super League games but against Basel? I’m not so sure. Young Boys Bern do have a strong home advantage due to their artificial pitch but their defence is as weak as ever (new signing Lecjaks could improve it but he’s injured currently), their midfield presence is virtually non-existant without Doubai and Lulic, and I ultimately don’t believe that they have enough to win this game, to be blunt.
Basel lost defender Ferati to SC Freiburg and goalkeeper Costanzo to Olympiakos Piraeus but I wouldn’t say that either are particularly crippling loss. It’s always hard to integrate a new goalkeeper into a team, admittedly, but with Swiss U21 starlet Yann Sommer looking as good as he does right now and having been at Basel for many years, that really shouldn’t be much of a problem. They’ve brought in Herzog from MSV Duisburg to keep the youngster on his toes either way and have also signed defensive midfielder/defender Kovac from West Ham United, which should give Basel some additional steel. Their big loss pre-season was defender Safari, who joined Anderlecht – it’ll be interesting to see how Basel fare in replacing him. However, in my eyes, there’s still no doubting that they’re the best team in Switzerland. With old hands Frei and Streller still up front and Swiss hot prospect Shaqiri supporting them, I think there’s a good chance that Basel will score even more goals than normal this season.
It’s never easy to wade into an opening game of the season, especially a derby, and just pick out a winner – that’s why I’ve taken draw no bet cover here. Young Boys Bern aren’t easy to beat at home because they’re a good side with their artificial turf advantage too. However, Basel are the only side in Switzerland that I believe are capable of winning here right now and given that they’ve not lost in their last three visits here, I fancy Basel to edge this one today – they just look a more complete unit right now.
Team news – Young Boys Bern miss Bienvenu, Lecjaks, Lingani, and Schneuwly whereas Basel miss Xhaxa.
Verdict: Basel to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Coritiba vs Fluminense – home win at evens.
Coritiba welcome back William to strengthen their midfield just as Fluminense welcome Deco back to strengthen theirs. The difference is that Coritiba are a good unit; Fluminense really need Deco to bail them out in games to get points nowadays. Striker Fred is still away on international duty in Argentina with Brazil whilst Argentinian star Conca moved on lately. Fluminense’s list of “stars” grows thin and without Muricy at the helm, I just don’t see the strength in Fluminense that was there last season, to be honest. Coritiba aren’t a great side themselves but one thing they do very well is play attacking football and score goals – Fluminense hate that because they’re not a great goalscoring side themselves. The only side to keep a clean sheet in Parana this season is defensive Atletico Goianiense, unsurprisingly! Since then, Coritiba have bagged against Internacional and romped to a 5-1 home win against Vasco da Gama so can they beat a one-man, demoralised Fluminense? I think so and the odds are good enough to take a chance on.
Team news – Fluminense miss Fred.
Verdict: Coritiba to win at evens.
Stjarnan Gardabaer vs Breidablik Kopavogur – home win at 7/5.
This is one to approach with caution but the odds still look generous to me. Stjarnan have been an absolute nightmare to face away from home ever since they got promoted to the Urvalsdeild. I don’t think any other side in Iceland manipulates the artificial turf advantage anywhere near as well as they do and that makes this a tough game to begin with. However, bear in mind that Breidablik Kopavogur have only just got back from a 5-0 thumping handed out in Norway by Rosenborg BK and potentially have either tired first-team players or squad rotated players today. Given that Breidablik sold most of their good players pre-season after their excellent campaign last season, I think a Stjarnan win is worth a flutter at 7/5.
Verdict: Stjarnan Gardabaer to win at 7/5.
Senica vs Tatran Presov – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
It was somewhat inevitable that we’d see a lot of changes at Corgon Liga outfit Senica following their drastic over-achievement last season. However, their losses are pretty damaging with star striker Smetana and their best attacking midfielder Luksik having both moved on, which removes a great deal of Senica’s attacking threat. They have signed ex-Sparta Prague playmaker Tomas Kona to help alleviate the departure of Luksik but he never impressed me much at Sparta Prague and although this is marginally a lower level than the Gambrinus Liga, I’m still unsure as to what kind of impact he’ll have, even after his loan spell last season. Squad rotation midfielders Gajdos, Szegedi, and Poliacek also moved on, just to further complicate matters for Senica. Indeed, Smetana’s compatriot and striking partner Divis has also moved on, which basically leaves Piroska with the goalscoring duty, something which he’s never really excelled at, to be honest. They’ve signed Urbanek, Kona, Kalabiska, Pavlik, Motha, and Kroupa and have welcomed Sully back from his loan spell to add depth to the team but is it really enough? Pavlik is a good defender and Urbanek was a good signing from Slovacko too but I can’t help feeling that they’ve lost a lot more than they’ve brought in. They’re raving about South African prodigy Motha and he may well become the midfield general that they undoubtedly need but this side will need to become a unit before they become a force, in my view. Senica are not MSK Zilina or Slovan Bratislava; not even Spartak Trnava. I therefore don’t feel that they can justify such short odds on a home win with the inexperience in their team of having lost some key players after a good campaign whereas their “title rivals” all have experience in that field. I think Senica will struggle to break through Tatran Presov today. The visitors are far from a good team but they’re rough and ready, tenacious, and will not lie down for anyone. I feel it’s worthwhile to note that for the last three consecutive years, all of Tatran Presov’s respective first away games of the season have easily gone under 2.5 goals. I’m not usually a fan of such statistics but it does help to illustrate the point that Tatran Presov are generally a pain to face at the start of the season. Therefore, under 2.5 goals appeals to me at 4/5 today.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Djurgarden vs Mjallby Solvesborg – home win with -1 asian handicap at 8/5.
Since appointing Pehrsson as their new boss, Djurgarden turned a debacle of a campaign into one where sides were beginning to fear facing them. Indeed, irrespective of their 3-0 loss last match, I still believe that to be the case. Djurgarden are playing good football and is it any surprise, really? They’ve got such a strong midfield that all it needed was a little galvanising in attack before they became dangerous. Their defence and especially goalkeeper is weak but if you’re scoring goals then you’re winning games. Let’s face it – the only side to stop Djurgarden in their last six games was Helsingborg away from home last match, which is no shame whatsoever! I think it’s worth noting that they drew 1-1 with reigning champions Helsingborg the match before and have won 0-4 at giants IFK Goteborg, 1-2 at Orebro at the tricky Behrn Arena, and have even beaten potent BK Hacken Goteborg whilst keeping a clean sheet. Djurgarden are very much on the rise and with Finnish duo Sjolund and Hamalainen being complimented by arising midfielders Hellqvist and Rajalakso, we have a very dangerous side on our hands here, especially now that Youssef and Igbonanike are beginning to forget a partnership in attack. So yeah – don’t underestimate Djurgarden!
That said, don’t overestimate them either. What I mean by that is that I wouldn’t go taking the -1.5 European handicap here purely because it has better odds. I’ve added insurance to this bet for a reason!
Mjallby are in a really bad way and it’s no surprise, really. They have some good home advantage with the strong wind around Solvesborg but quality-wise, they’re not good enough to be here and it looks like the players know it too, based on their recent displays. The sale of star striker El-Khebir to Cagliari has done irreperable damage and despite them loaning Eriksson from IFK Goteborg to replace him, it’s just not going to work. Only old hand Ekenberg can still find the net and he will do so, given chance – he’s a good finisher. He’s virtually on his own in this Mjallby team, though – Zavratil and Nicklasson add some ability and Asper brings experience to the back line but they’re short on numbers and short on ability and with five defeats from their last six games, it’s really starting to show.
Mjallby Solvesborg have shipped thirteen goals in their last three away games, scoring just once along the way. They’re conceding goals for fun and barely replying with goals themselves and if that continues then their stay in the Allsvenskan will be a brief one. I just don’t see their form improving against a driven and frankly superior Djurgarden side today.
Please bear in mind that Djurgarden are not a naturally gifted goalscoring side here, hence the Asian handicap rather than the European handicap. I’ve added insurance to this bet for that but it’s up to you if you want to be greedy or not. Either way, the hosts really should win this game today, especially with Lofqvist’s suspension not assisting Mjallby’s ailing attack one iota.
Team news – Djurgarden miss Ayub whereas Mjallby Solvesborg miss Lofqvist.
Verdict: Djurgarden to beat the -1 asian handicap at 8/5.
Accumulator fodder:
HJK Helsinki, Dynamo Kiev.
Recommended bets:
Basel draw no bet, Dynamo Kiev, and HJK Helsinki at evens.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Copa America:
Colombia vs Peru (6) 1-0
Argentina vs Uruguay (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Mattersburg vs Wiener Neustadt (5) 1-1
Rapid Vienna vs Admira Wacker (4) 1-1
SV Ried vs Sturm Graz (6) 1-0
SV Kapfenberg vs Wacker Innsbruck (5) 2-1
Brazilian Serie A:
Vasco da Gama vs Atletico Paranaense (6) 2-1
Coritiba vs Fluminense (7) 2-1
Atletico Goianiense vs Avai (6) 2-1
Santos vs Atletico Mineiro (4) 1-1
Danish Superligaen:
OB Odense vs Nordsjaelland (7) 1-0
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Trans Narva vs Flora Tallinn (5) 0-0
Viljandi vs Flora Paide (7) 1-0
Nomme Kalju vs Ajax Lasnamae (10) -2.5 handicap
Maag Tammeka Tartu vs Kuressaare (7) 2-0
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
HJK Helsinki vs VPS Vaasa (8) 2-0
Finnish Ykkonen:
PoPa Pori vs KooTeePee Kotka (5)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Diosgyori VTK vs Zalaegerszegi TE (5) 0-1
Pecsi MFC vs Szombathelyi Haladas (6) 1-1
Ujpest vs Lombard Papa (6) 1-0
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
Stjarnan Gardabaer vs Breidablik Kopavogur (6) 2-1
Japanese J-League:
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Albirex Niigata (7) 1-0
Ventforet Kofu vs Gamba Osaka (6) 1-2
Vissel Kobe vs Cerezo Osaka (6) 0-0
Kawasaki Frontale vs Kashiwa Reysol (6) 1-0
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Senica vs Tatran Presov (6) 1-0
Dukla Banska Bystrica vs Nitra (6) 2-1
Zlate Moravce vs Ruzomberok (5) 1-0
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Maribor vs Gorica (6) 2-1
Swedish Allsvenskan:
IFK Norrkoping vs Syrianska Sodertalje (6) 2-1
Djurgarden vs Mjallby Solvesborg (7) 2-0
Swedish Superettan:
Degerfors vs GIF Sundsvall (5)
Ljungskile vs Angelholm (6)
Assyriska Sodertalje vs Varnamo (7)
Jonkopings Sodra vs Brage (4)
Vasteras vs Qviding Goteborg (5)
Swiss Super League:
Sion vs FC Zurich (6) 1-1
Young Boys Bern vs Basel (6) 1-2
Ukrainian Premier League:
Metalist Kharkiv vs Zorya Lugansk (7) 2-0
Oleksandria vs Dynamo Kiev (8) 0-2
Metalurg Donetsk vs Shakhtar Donetsk (7) 0-2, at least one red card in this game
Volyn Lutsk vs Tavriya Simferopol (6) 0-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!