Scotland vs Faroe Islands
FreeToday’s featured game is one of the first of the dreaded international games this week and features the clash in Aberdeen between Scotland and the Faroe Islands. These two nations are quite close geographically and for the first time ever, they’re quite close in quality too, in my opinion. That’s not meant to be detrimental to Scotland per se as Faroe Islands have improved a lot in recent years but it’s undeniable that Scotland are not playing particularly well due to a lack of raw talent.
I recall Craig Brown last month speaking almost excitedly over the arranging of this fixture and I just wondered “why?”. He spoke about the game being played in Aberdeen, which isn’t a particularly common venue for the national team, and how he hopes the locals will turn out in force for the hosts. Now, one thing I can never fault the Scots for is their unyielding passion and support so fair play to them. However, we’re really going to see their devotion pushed to the limits today, aren’t we? Who the fuck will pay money on a cold winter night in Scotland to watch Scotland play the Faroe Islands?? I’m a football fanatic and I’m not sure I’d go if I was given a free ticket!
Nonetheless, there should still be money to be made here so fuck the spectacle. Scotland are a hard side to beat at home but that unfortunately doesn’t mean that they’re good at beating sides at home. If you cast your mind back a couple of months, you’ll recall Scotland requiring a 97th minute goal to overcome a Liechtenstein side that frankly didn’t deserve to lose and that game was in Scotland. It was quite fortuitous that the hosts kept eleven men on the field, in fact, as tempers and frustration got the better of them in a surprisingly heated game. However, it’s not the first time Scotland have struggled at home with goalscoring not a particular forté of theirs. Indeed, if I gave the +2.5 handicap to every side that has faced Scotland away from home in their last sixteen games then you’d see sixteen away wins. Scotland are a good battling side but when it comes to breaking sides down, they simply don’t have the quality to do it on a consistent basis. It can’t possibly help Scotland’s limited squad to know that Berra, Burke, Caldwell, Dorrans, Gilks, Hutton, Morrison, Naismith, and Whittaker have all withdrawn because they don’t fancy a winter night playing the Faroe Islands either through injury, especially with the likes of Miller and McCulloch already left out of the squad. Bluntly – I don’t see how on earth Scotland are worth 1/10 in this game as I wouldn’t be interested if they were 4/6, in all honesty!
Visitors Faroe Islands are improving all the time and I’ve covered that quite extensively on this site. Indeed, some of you may have followed me when I gave them a handicap head start against Northern Ireland in their last international home game, which ended 1-1. Faroe Islands are advancing steadily under experiencd Brian Kerr and although it’s hard to ever envision them as being heavyweights of international football, they’re certainly on their way up to the level of the likes of Liechtenstein i.e. hard to beat but far from prolific. A new era dawns for Faroe Islands with Jakup Mikkelsen and Jakup A Borg having now truly hung up their boots so it’ll be interesting to see how the Faroes cope without their former talismanic players. Kerr has named an interesting squad for this game which includes promising full-back Erling Jacobsen, who was recently named Faroese Young Player Of The Year. Experienced Frodi Benjaminsen is naturally in the squad after he scooped Player Of The Year for the second consecutive year and his experience will be quintessential for a rather youthful looking Faroese midfield. However, Kerr has opted not to include Jacobsen and Hansen, the joint top scorers in the Meistaradeildin last season, which is a bit bizarre. Instead, Kerr has plumped for Newcastle United striker Edmundsson, who is beginning to prove his credentials at international level so we’ll see how he does in a game that he’s frankly able to impress in.
So yeah – both sides have named fairly experimental squads, as you’d expect for a friendly. However, Scotland’s players have all pulled out ’cause they’re mid-season and can’t be bothered whereas the Faroese Meistaradeildin finished a few weeks ago so they’re all raring to go. Holst, the hero from their last match, is hoping to wreak havoc upon yet another British defence and with the Scots looking rather depleted, I quite fancy the odds on both sides scoring in this game. However, my main call has to be for Faroe Islands to win with a +2.5 goal head start because both of these sides play physical football and don’t score many. Hell, I expect the Faroese pace from the likes of Samuelsen and Elttor to cause a lot of problems here if not dealt with properly so +1.5 and even laying the hosts has crossed my mind for this game. However, I’ll stick with my initial call of a +2.5 goal head start for the visitors because I’ll be astounded if Scotland beat them by three goals or more here – they just don’t have the firepower.
Scotland squad:
Goalkeepers – Bell, Gordon
Defenders – Bardsley, Caddis, Caldwell, Crainey, Kenneth, Saunders, Wilson
Midfielders – Adam, Bannan, Bryson, Commons, Davidson, Fletcher, McArthur, Maloney, Robson
Attackers – Goodwillie, Kyle, Mackie
Faroe Islands squad:
Goalkeepers – Nielsen, Thomsen
Defenders – Tor Naes, Jacobsen, Gregersen, Rubeksen, Baldvinsson, Frederiksberg, Davidsen
Midfielders – Udsen, Benjaminsen, Poulsen, Lokin, Hanssen, Petersen, Elttor, Samuelsen
Attackers – Holst, Edmundsson, Mouritsen
Verdict: Faroe Islands to win with +2.5 goals at 7/10.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
River Plate vs Boca Juniors – away win with draw no bet at 21/20.
This isn’t just the biggest derby in Buenos Aires, or the biggest derby in Argentina – it’s the biggest derby in South America! This is an absolutely huge game and if you can find markets on cards then I’d take them – not many “El Clasico” games between these two go without cards!
Why am I being bold enough to toss my hat into the ring by betting on such a big game? It’s a dangerous one, that’s for sure, but Boca have had the lion’s share of wins in recent years and I don’t see why that trend won’t continue tonight. River Plate bizarrely sacked Cappa lately, who is the only manager to have done anything good for the side in the last few years. The management sacked him because they didn’t want him to be fired because of the derby – surely that defeats the whole object of being a manager in the first place?! Anyway, it apparently makes sense to them to do it now. A new manager often brings additional motivation to the side they arrive at but I don’t see how that will work here. As if River Plate won’t already be motivated for this game! River’s problem isn’t motivation, however, it’s a distinct lack of quality. They don’t have good enough strikers, for starters – they’re too easy to defend against as a result. There’s far too much dependance on experienced Ortega and emerging talents Buonanotte and Funes. River Plate simply aren’t what they were and although they defend well on occasion, they’re not scoring enough goals to win big games, which perhaps explains why they’ve not won any of their last five games against Boca, losing twice along the way, the most recent of which was at River’s beloved Antonio Vespucio Liberti so Boca are starting to show their dominance. However, not all is well with Boca, to be fair – they’re defending like clowns despite having purchased virtually a whole new defence at the start of this campaign. Boca’s integration policies for their new players are non-existant; it’s basically “adapt or suffer the consequences”. Boca have been relying far too heavily on veteran striker Martin Palermo but they too are struggling for quality in-depth nowadays. However, one thing I will credit Boca with is that they do score goals and if you score goals then you’re going to win games. Their form is sporadic at best, sadly, so I’d not wager any huge amounts on Boca at the moment, especially not in big games like this. However, they’re simply a better side than River are nowadays with better players and a far better chance of actually putting the ball in the net so I fancy the visitors tonight.
There’s one factor that I’ve not yet mentioned which totally tips the scale in favour of Boca, however – Juan Roman Riquelme. He’s been struggling with injuries this season but returned in Boca’s defeat at home to Argentinos Juniors in their last match and is supposedly fit enough to play in this game. If he plays, Boca are a different side and Palermo is not so heavily relied upon. Riquelme is a local boy; he’ll be playing out of his skin in this game and let’s face it – he’s the best player still plying their trade within Argentina so we’ve got to expect a big display from him tonight. If he plays to his potential then Boca really should win this game or at the very least draw it. I don’t see River managing a win here without Boca going a goal down and losing a man – which is sadly quite possible in a derby of such magnitude – so I think the away win with draw no bet is my value tip for this game although caution is most certainly recommended.
Verdict: Boca Juniors to win with draw no bet at 21/20.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
International Friendly:
Saudi Arabia vs Uganda (7) 2-0
Jordan vs Cyprus (6) 2-1, draw no bet
Scotland vs Faroe Islands (5) 1-0
Argentinian Primera Division:
River Plate vs Boca Juniors (5) 0-1, at least one red card in this game
Enjoy your free betting tips!