Shakhtar Donetsk vs Arsenal
FreeToday’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League game in the Ukraine between giants Shakhtar Donetsk and Arsenal. Both sides play free-flowing, attacking football so we should see a good game here with plenty of goals, much as we did in the first leg.
Hosts Shakhtar Donetsk are an interesting side. Fuelled by the money of Rinat Akhmetov, the Ukrainian side continue to heavily invest in emerging talent, especially from South America, and the club naturally possesses some very talented players as a result of the investment. However, to describe Shakhtar as anything but a “feeder club” would be misleading because their better players will leave the club if given opporunity, generally speaking. Shakhtar’s boss Mircea Lucrescu has been in charge for a long time and knows how to get the best out of his sides. Although his side is rather young, they still play a rather experienced game more often than not so it pays not to underestimate the hosts. Shakhtar have already taken six points from a possible nine with their 5-1 drubbing at Arsenal two weeks ago being the only blemish on an impressive record thus far. Shakhtar monopolise possession with some great midfield play and often convert their chances with clinical finishing, not to mention the fact that they tend to keep sides out well as they defend solidly too when Chygrynskyi is in the side. However, Shakhtar have two weaknesses – facing better sides, and facing sides that stick men behind the ball. Even now, Shakhtar haven’t entirely grasped how to beat sides that put men behind the ball and although they do have the individual brilliance to overcome some sides with such tactics, it’s certainly not a common thing for them. Shakhtar managed to take three points from a tough trip to face Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk lately so their confidence will be as high as ever but I still have my concerns over this Shakhtar side because they struggle against sides that play their style, especially sides that play their style better than they do. I don’t care how good your side is – you need holding midfielders and Shakhtar randomly sold their best two holding midfielders Mariusz Lewandowski and Igor Duljaj last season, which was bizarre at best, especially having foolishly parted with Anatoly Tymoschuk in the season prior to that. Shakhtar’s football is good but you must have muscle in your side and if not then you’re likely to struggle against superior sides, which is what I expect to occur tonight.
Visitors Arsenal are a talented but frustrating side with their blatant ability, outstanding manager, and yet consistent injuries and lack of squad depth. Nonetheless, they demonstrated two weeks ago that they can easily win games like this and to be fair, Arsenal rarely have any issues in getting out of a Champions League group – it’s only after that that they begin to struggle due to a youthful side and a lack of quality in defence. Wenger’s tactical genius is usually good enough to see the Londoners get a good result in games like this and I expect more of the same tonight, to be frank. They’ve already won three out of three games and a win tonight guarantees them qualification for the latter stages so they’ve got to push for it, really. Besides – can you ever envision the scenario whereby Wenger doesn’t encourage his side to play attacking football? It’s all they’re good at! I fancy Arsenal to attack Shakhtar tonight and despite some absences, they should have enough ability to win this game.
I’ve actually been eyeing up this fixture since the Champions League Group Stage draw. I was hoping it would come before the leg at Arsenal because the odds would be better but we’ll make do with what is on show. You see, the reason I really fancy Arsenal here is because Shakhtar Donetsk don’t have the usual Ukrainian home advantage. Shakhtar don’t have the physical, in-your-face style that Arsenal loathe to play against and they don’t have a Dynamo Kiev-esque pitch advatnage. In fact, the Donbass Arena has an absolutely marvellous playing field and that’s why I really fancy Arsenal here. Shakhtar love to play football but this pitch is going to suit Arsenal far more than it does Shakhtar because that simply do it better. Shakhtar’s Brazilian triangles in midfield can be deadly but Arsenal are always deadly on this kind of pitch and that is the predominant reasoning behind my selection tonight. Either way, odds look awfully long on an Arsenal win here when you consider how this game really should develop. I won’t read much into the 5-1 win two weeks ago, to be honest – Arsenal took their chances and Shakhtar didn’t show up – but I expect more of the same tonight and although I doubt the scoreline will be similar, I do think Arsenal will win the game so that’s my call at 29/20.
Team news – both clubs miss a huge player apiece with Shakhtar missing Fernandinho through long-term injury (and it’s always apparent in big games) and Arsenal miss Fabregas, who is obviously a loss but shouldn’t be massively missed here. Arsenal have doubts over the fitness of Denilson, Arshavin, and Song but the squad should still be enough to edge this game tonight.
Verdict: Arsenal to win at 29/20.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
AC Milan vs Real Madrid – away win at 23/20.
There’s no secret here; I simply think Madrid are the better side. Mourinho is an absolute genius tactically and his attention to detail with everything perpetually gives his sides advantages over other sides. He always coached Inter extremely well for derby games and as a result, they were often successful against AC Milan and I expect more of the same tonight. Real Madrid could have scored an awful lot of goals at the Santiago Bernabeu when they won this fixture 2-0 two weeks ago but failed to convert their chances and if I had one critcism of Madrid this season then it’d be not taking their chances to a sufficient degree. However, that being the single problem with a side that has been ridden with problems for approximately eight years speaks volumes for the work Mourinho has done. He’s turned this footballing giant back into a respectable side and a side that other teams simply cannot break through. AC Milan’s slow and predictable style doesn’t concern me tonight because Madrid are well-organised under Mourinho and have masses of pace on the counter-attack to make it count. Only Madrid and Manchester United are yet to concede a goal in this competition this season and if I’m honest, I think Madrid might just win this game to nil if you fancy a very impudent bet. However, I just don’t see how four very talented attacking players are going to somehow make AC Milan a match for a superior Real Madrid side tonight – I just can’t envision the scenario. Cristiano Ronaldo is the best player in the world, in my opinion – he can win any game on his own and as a Manchester United fan, I’d give anything to have him back! However, the guy knows how to win games – he scores goals for fun from all kinds of scenarios and with him in your side, you automatically have a better chance of winning the game than initially perceived. Mourinho is gradually coaxing this Madrid side into a regimented unit in defence whilst maintaining the killer instinct in attack whereas poor AC Milan look rather old and forlorn. As I very much loved the glory days of Italian football, I’d actually quite enjoy AC Milan proving me wrong tonight and beating Real Madrid – I really would – but I just don’t see it happening. Madrid have more pace, a better manager, better tactics, and more options in thir squad than AC Milan do – the only edge AC Milan have here is home advantage and experience, both of which Mourinho can counter, so I fancy Madrid to win this one rather comfortably tonight at decent odds.
Squads:
AC Milan:
Abbiati, Amelia, Antonini, Jankulovski, Nesta, Papastathopoulos, Thiago Silva, Zambrotta, Yepes, Abate, Amrbosini, Boateng, Flamini, Gattuso, Pirlo, Seedorf, Ibrahimovic, Inzaghi, Pato, Robinho, Ronaldinho.
Real Madrid:
Casillas, Dudek, Adan, Arbeloa, Sergio Ramos, Pepe, Albiol, Marcelo, Mateos, Carvalho, Khedira, Alonso, Ozil, Diarra, Canales, Granero, Pedro Leon, Di Maria, Benzema, Higuain, Ronaldo.
Verdict: Real Madrid to win at 23/20.
Accumulator fodder:
Chelsea.
Recommended bets:
Real Madrid and Chelsea at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Champions League:
Basel vs AS Roma (5) over 2.5 goals
CFR Cluj vs Bayern Munich (4) 1-2
Chelsea vs Spartak Moscow (8) -1.5 handicap
MSK Zilina vs Olympique de Marseille (6) 0-1
Auxerre vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (6) 1-1
AC Milan vs Real Madrid (7) 1-2
Partizan Belgrade vs Sporting Braga (4) 1-1
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Arsenal (6) over 2.5 goals
Copa Sudamericana:
Deportes Tolima vs Independiente (6) 2-1
Australian A-League:
Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar (5) 2-1
Perth Glory vs Melbourne Heart (5) 1-1
Brazilian Serie A:
Santos vs Vitoria (7) over 2.5 goals
Botafogo vs Atletico Goianiense (7) 2-1
Guarani vs Atletico Mineiro (4) 1-1
Internacional vs Fluminense (5) 2-2
Goias vs Gremio (4) 1-2
Corinthians vs Avai (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo (6) 2-1
Ceara vs Flamengo (5) 0-1, draw no bet
Singaporean S-League:
Albirex Niigata vs Woodlands Wellington (6) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!