Slavia Prague vs Sparta Prague
FreeToday’s featured game is the Gambrinus Liga derby between Slavia Prague and Sparta Prague. This is easily the biggest game in the calendar year of the Gambrinus Liga so expect a feisty display with the possibility of plenty of cards.
However, for the first time in a while, this derby isn’t as important, in my opinion. Hosts Slavia Prague are in a truly desolate place at the moment with goalscoring virtually a dream and defending something solely of the past. They’ve won just two out of eight Gambrinus Liga games this season and one of those was against lowly Brno so it’s easy to see that Slavia Prague aren’t firing on all cylinders. The capture of Slovakian midfielder Karol Kisel was not only inspired but necessary because without him, I firmly believe that they’d be in the relegation places currently. Vicek is finally looking his age and unfortunately for Slavia Prague, so is his strike partner Hora. For the first time in many years, Slavia Prague don’t have the youth players coming through that would bolster their squad during this difficult time and it’s really showing. Slavia’s players are either too old or too young and as a result, Slavia are not gelling as a unit and thus lose the main weapon that they used to possess against sides. The experience of Jarolim and Kisel is very useful to the team, naturally, but there’s simply too many old players and not enough life here, certainly not enough to make things happen in attack. You look at this side and although you have respect, you simply cannot see where their goals are going to come from. To make matters worse, they’ve defended like amateurs this season and have been duly punished on many occasions. Their last match resulted in a 0-0 draw at newly-promoted Hradec Kralove, which says it all, really. This is not the Slavia Prague of old and they may well get taught a lesson in today’s derby as a result.
Sparta Prague aren’t the force they used to be either, to be fair. They’ve suffered some hefty losses themselves in recent times and it’s beginning to show. God knows what this side are going to do when prodigal son Tomas Repka inevitably hangs up his boots because their defence is shocking without him and they don’t generally score enough goals to cover their abject defensive displays. However, that’s a point for another day as I’ve not heard anything to suggest that Repka is unavailable so we should see a fairly assured Sparta Prague display today. Sparta Prague have now won four consecutive games leading into this one so momentum certainly favours the visitors here, particularly as their most recent win was a deserved victory against Italian outfit Palermo mid-week. They’ve beaten title contenders Jablonec at home and destroyed a defensively inept Brno side 5-0 away from home in two of their other games so Sparta’s overall displays are showing a touch of class and knowledge, the latter of which I value more highly than the former. Chovanec’s tactics are generally spot on for Sparta and now that the players are accurately responding to his ideas, Sparta are looking better for it. Star striker Wilfried is in good form with four goals in six games and Sparta generally boast a far more impressive wealth of options all over the pitch than their bitter rivals do, which again encourages me to back the visitors here. Unlike Slavia, Sparta have both experienced and talented players and as a result, I think they’ll outplay their hosts today. The acquisitions of Zitka and Matejovsky were wise ones over the summer, particularly the latter as it provided some much needed creativity in the middle of the park. Libor Sionko and Jaromir Blazek have seen plenty of Prague derbies and know the score by now. There’s pace and individual ability littered throughout this Sparta squad and although I have my doubts over their defence, I have little doubt over their potency and that should be the fundamental point here.
The difference between the two sides is what keeps Sparta Prague in this year’s title race and Slavia Prague out of it – money. Slavia Prague has always been the “working man’s” club and Sparta Prague have always been the moneybags. It’s a sad lesson of life to learn that money rules the world and I think we may see an example of that today between two frankly mismatched sides. It’s a derby game so do approach with caution – maybe draw no bet is worthwhile of consideration – but I just don’t see Sparta Prague losing this game today. If they take their chances, the derby is theirs and their Gambrinus Liga campaign is back on track so my call is the away win at 3/2.
Incidentally, there’s a lot of personal rivalry on show today with the likes of Vachousek, Koubsky, and Kisel facing their respective former clubs so don’t be surprised to see either score and/or be sent off in this game as is the usual way with derbies!
Verdict: Sparta Prague to win at 3/2.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia – away win at evens.
This is a bold call as no trip to face Cherno More Varna is ever an easy one due to their solid defending. However, Cherno More aren’t the same side as last year with midfielder Bornosuzov and striker Kakalov having now departed to ply their trade in Romania with Astra Ploiesti. They have brought in midfielders Atanasov from Beroe and Petkov from Lokomotiv Mezdra, not to mentioned experienced Brazilian striker Mario Jardel, but they don’t appear to have what it takes to make Cherno More the same force this year as they have been in recent times, although that may be a tad harsh on Jardel who hasn’t played much football at all for his new club. Cherno’s problem has long been scoring goals and Kakalov’s departure looks a real thorn in their side this year as the fact that only newly-promoted Akademik Sofia have scored less goals than they have in the A PFG proves. Defensively, they’re as composed as ever, but you tend to find that points are harder to come by with little goalscoring threat and that’s what has happened to Cherno this year, hence their defeats against CSKA Sofia and rivals Chernomorets Burgas in two out of their last three games with their only points coming from a 1-0 win at newly-promoted Rakovski. Cherno will be in no mood to give Levski Sofia an easy ride today; it’s simply not in their nature. However, as far as goalscoring goes, I really don’t expect to see them trouble the giants of Levski today.
Levski Sofia have impressed en mass this season with new striker Dembele blending seamlessly into the side and their attacking play benefiting massively as a result. They’ve now won five consecutive games in all competitions with their most recent win coming at home to Belgian side AA Gent in the UEFA Europa League mid-week, showing great determination to win 3-2. Levski’s defence hasn’t looked as solid as normal of late but with hefty fixture congestion, it’s no great surprise. I’m simply happy to see them scoring goals for fun with Dembele allowing the likes of Tasevski and Joaozinho the room they need to operate in the middle, which generally makes Levski unplayable in their domestic league. Although Levski don’t have a great record at Cherno for obvious reasons, I genuinely feel that this is their best side in years and they have a great chance of taking three points today as a result, particularly with such strong momentum bringing them into this game.
It takes a monumental effort to take three points from a trip to face Cherno More Varna so I’d leave this bet if the odds drop. However, there’s no denying that Levski Sofia are the better of these two sides and with Levski scoring goals for fun and playing so well at the moment, you can’t help but feel that they’ll score at least once today and given Cherno’s form of late, that should be enough to secure an away win.
Verdict: Levski Sofia to win at evens.
Haugesund vs Lillestrom – home win at evens.
Newly-promoted Haugesund have been a terrific home side in the Eliteserien this season following assured displays that I felt were way beyond them, to be honest. They’ve looked incredibly composed and well-organised in defence and their attack has been nothing short of outstanding with an average of over two goals scored per home game. Only over-achieving Tromso have conceded as few goals as Haugesund have at home this season with an average of less than a goal per game being conceded. Ex-Stromsgodset striker Thomas Sorum has served them well this season with eight goals scored in twenty-two outings but it’s the experienced and able defence with the likes of ex-Rosenborg BK defender Tronseth, Skjerve, and Andreasson that have held the side together at the foundation and that’s why Haugesund have won seven out of eleven at home this season, remaining unbeaten throughout. With no defeats in four games and three wins along the way, Haugesund are showing no signs of slowing down so I fancy them to turn up as usual today to do the business.
However, visitors Lillestrom are more than capable of giving as good as they get as they’re generally a tough nut to crack at the best of times. Lillestrom’s big problem, however, is scoring goals away from home. They’ve rarely had problems being solid at the back, which is no doubt due to ex-Norway international Henning Berg leading them. Not scoring goals has caused them a great deal of problems of away from home this year, however, with just one win recorded in eleven away games in the Eliteserien. Admittedly, Lillestrom have only lost four of those games due to being bloody hard to score against but they’ve really struggled of late with three consecutive defeats on the road. Berg has got his side playing more attacking football away from home of late but it’s not their style at all and they’ve lost all three games despite scoring goals in each game, dropping points at Stabaek, Odd Grenland Skien, and newly-promoted Honefoss respectively. Lillestrom should revert to their strong defensive ways and look at alternative methods of attacking but I don’t think that’s Berg’s style and I don’t think Lillestrom have the financial clout to see it happen either. Lillestrom should fail here if they attack and stand their best chance of success by defending but I still don’t see the visitors taking anything from what can only be described as a very tough trip in the Eliteserien this year.
It’ll be interesting to see how Lillestrom’s young strikers Ujah and Sigurdarson handle the experienced defence of Haugesund today but ultimately I think the hosts will be as composed as ever and deal with their opponents with some ease. I have little concern over Lillestrom scoring here; my concern is whether Haugesund will or not. However, with momentum favouring the hosts and Lillestrom conceding haphazardly on the road of late, I have to favour the home win at evens although I’d leave it if the odds drop further.
Verdict: Haugesund to win at evens.
Terek Grozny vs Zenit St.Petersburg – lay Zenit St.Petersburg at 3/4.
Laying a side at 3/4 for a trip to Chechnya? Yes please! This terrain and general area is one of the most hostile places in the world so don’t take this trip lightly here because of Zenit’s big names.
Grozny is never an easy away game in the Russian Premier League so why Zenit are such favourites here is beyond me. Yes, Zenit do possess a better squad than Terek but Terek are incredibly strong at home and always show it. Despite only just avoiding relegation last season, Terek still limited their home defeats to five in fifteen and this year are yet to lose any games at home due to solid and reliable defending, winning five times and drawing four times along the way. They’re not prolific goalscorers at home but they’re incredibly compact at the back where they’ve conceded just three goals in nine games – an average of a single goal being conceded per every three games. Zenit have travelled to Grozny four times since Terek were promoted back in 2005 and have won just once. Hell, they’ve only scored here on two of those occasions and Zenit were still a good side during that period. The problem I have with taking Zenit seriously away from home is that they rely far too much on Danny to make something happen. Denisov, Zyrianov, and Bystrov are good players but Danny bears the burden on the road so defenders “doing a job” on him generally restrict Zenit on the road. I can’t take away from Zenit just how well they’re playing at the moment with four wins from their last five games in all competitions, including a 3-1 win at Belgian giants Anderlecht mid-week in the UEFA Europa League but this is a very different game indeed. Rubin Kazan could only draw here and Spartak Moscow have lost here and to be honest, Zenit can afford to slip up here with the games in hand that they have over title rivals Rubin Kazan. They’ve got a last sixteen Russian Cup game at Anzhi Makhachkala in a few days and a European campaign to consider so a trip to Grozny certainly isn’t welcome at this point.
I don’t think Zenit are in a position to give their all and win the game today, basically. They’re priced far too short for what is a very difficult away game in the Russian Premier League for any side and I’ll be very surprised if they do enough to take three points today so my call is to lay the title favourites at decent odds of 3/4.
Verdict: Lay Zenit St.Petersburg at 3/4.
Djurgarden vs Malmo – away win at 11/10.
If a win against your most bitter rivals to propel your side three points clear at the top of the Allsvenskan isn’t enough to inspire Malmo then I don’t know what is. They welcome back integral strikers Mehmeti and Larsson from suspension and have won seven out of their last eight games so momentum is very strong. They know that if they win all of their remaining Allsvenskan games then they win their first Allsvenskan title in many years and that must be great motivation for the sleeping giants. Malmo aren’t tremendous on the road but they’ve won two out of their last three on the road and only silly defensive errors in their trip to rock-bottom Atvidaberg last match cost them three points in a 3-3 draw so Malmo are still good enough to do the job on the road as they’re scoring goals. Let’s face it – Malmo have to be good here because Djurgarden are good at home, hence just three defeats in eleven home games this season. Djurgarden are an experienced Allsvenskan side and are capable of taking points of Malmo if their visitors show any kind of complacency whatsoever. However, a lack of goal threat for the hosts coupled with a disappointing end to their run by losing at Atvidaberg last match should cripple them for today’s game. They’ve won their last two home games consecutively so should be taken seriously but it’s the kind of abject display that they showed in their 3-0 defeat at home against BK Hacken Goteborg that interest me as a dedicated and potent visitor tends to have success here. Djurgarden will not lie down for Malmo here but the inspiration and momentum that the visitors are sure to have should propel them forwards here and thus the away win at 11/10 interests me although I’d leave it if it drops – Djurgarden are no clowns at home.
Verdict: Malmo to win at 11/10.
Accumulator fodder:
AEL Limassol, CSKA Moscow.
Recommended bets:
Malmo, AEL Limassol, and CSKA Moscow at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Bulgarian A PFG:
Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia (6) 0-1
Cypriot Division 1:
AEL Limassol vs Ermis (8) 2-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slavia Prague vs Sparta Prague (6) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Danish Superligaen:
Lyngby vs Nordsjaelland (6) 1-1
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Haka Valkeakoski vs IFK Mariehamn (5) over 2.5 goals
French Ligue 2:
Reims vs Nantes (6) under 2.5 goals
Italian Serie B:
Sassuolo vs Vicenza (5)
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Haugesund vs Lillestrom (7) 2-1
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
CD Nacional de Madeira vs Porto (6) 1-2
Romanian Liga:
Gloria Bistrita vs Brasov (6) 2-1
Steaua Bucharest vs Astra Ploiesti (6) 2-1
Russian Premier League:
Terek Grozny vs Zenit St.Petersburg (6) 1-1
Spartak Nalchik vs Spartak Moscow (7) 1-1
CSKA Moscow vs Sibir Novosibirsk (8) -1.5 handicap
Spanish Primera Liga:
Deportivo La Coruna vs Getafe (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Helsingborg vs Mjallby Solvesborg (7) under 2.5 goals
Djurgarden vs Malmo (7) over 2.5 goals
Swedish Superettan:
Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasby United (7)
Brage vs Ljungskile (6)
Trollhattan vs Orgryte (5) draw no bet
GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenberg (3)
Turkish Super Lig:
Gaziantepspor vs Bursaspor (5) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!