Slovakia vs Andorra

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Well, a lot less intrigues me today following on from yesterday’s massacre but my secondary featured game is the UEFA European Championship Qualifier between Slovakia and Andorra.

Slovakia boss Weiss has been heavily linked to a move to Ekstraklasa giants Legia Warsaw in recent times and whether that will have an impact on the team or not remains to be seen. Either way, we have to look at Slovakia’s side and assess them as a team that simply don’t score many goals. They work very hard, they’re not easy to score against, and they’ll be as physical as they need to be to stop their opponents. Breaking sides down, though – that’s really not their specialised area.

I always find it helps to view Slovakia in the same way I view Russia – two or three players at a maximum who can create something, hence them not scoring many goals. However, both sides defend very well and subsequently, a lot of their games go under 2.5 goals.

Slovakia’s trip to Andorra ended 0-1 and a similar scoreline today wouldn’t surprise me. The players in the Slovakian team that make things happen are Hamsik, Sapara, Stoch, Weiss, and Svento. The latter four from that last aren’t even in the squad for this game so I cannot begin to imagine what Weiss’ plans are for this game. I suspect we’ll see some kind of 4-3-3 with Hamsik pulling the strings but there’s just not much creativity in this team. They’ve got some decent strikers in Jendrisek and Nemec, for example, but they don’t have what it takes to break through sides continually, in my view.

Andorra are a side often written off by the general public and I can fully understand that as they have no stars at the present time. However, although I’d write off their chances of winning most games, I certainly won’t rule out the possibility of them scoring low-scoring draws off sides because Andorra have played together as a team for some ten years and now and subsequently, they’ve become very experienced, irrespective of their inferior quality level. That has led to them being a passionate and physical side but one that understands each other very well, hence Andorra not conceding many goals nowadays. They’re solid in defence and will be dirty if they think it’ll help. Andorra simply aren’t an easy side to break through for sides like Slovakia, who struggle for creativity. Don’t get me wrong – I’d expect Netherlands, Spain, or Brazil to smash at least five past Andorra – but I don’t think we’ll see the same from Slovakia today.

Slovakia also miss Zabavnik and Pekarik so have a minor issue in the full-back department but I won’t pay too much attention to that as I don’t rate Andorra’s ability to score goals – well, barring from the odd set piece. Andorra will line up as defensively as ever here and I think they’ll have some joy. A 2-0 scoreline would be what I’d expect here unless Slovakia really strike gold from the start but I’d be surprised to see it. For me, under 3.5 goals is generously priced at 11/10.

Verdict: Under 3.5 goals at 11/10.

Saturday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Russia vs Armenia – away win +1.5 handicap at 6/5.

The odds on Russia winning this game look very short indeed to me. Armenia play better football than Russia and have more options in attack, in my view. It may sound bizarre to say it but I genuinely believe it. Russia have Arshavin, Bilyaletdinov, and Dzagoev to create things for them – the rest aren’t creative enough. Dzagoev has been frustrating for the past year or so and Bilyaletdinov wasn’t as good this season as he was the season before, in my view, so it all falls on Arshavin – as usual. He’s not had a great season either, for the record. Russia can thank God that Zhirkov is back to bring driving runs down the left because with Bystrov still out injured, Russia were really lacking some width to balance their lack of creativity through the middle. It must be quite frustrating for the Russians, really – they’ve got the likes of Kerhakov and Pavlyuchenko in the middle, who are both good strikers, and they’re not giving them the necessary service. Russia find it very hard to score goals, generally speaking, and with all of their creative players having struggled this year, why should this game be any different?

Armenia’s defence is far from world-class; it can be breached with some decent play and that’s why it’s important to pick the right time to back them to win. However, I’m allowing for them conceding a goal or two here with this bet. My interest in this game comes from Armenia’s ability to score goals and create chances because they do it very well indeed. They’ve got some bloody good strikers in Manucharyan and Movsisyan and with Mkhitaryan behind them, Armenia actually look very dangerous in their attacking game. In their last eight games, only two sides have managed to prevent Armenia from scoring against them and one of them was today’s opponents Russia in a 0-0 draw. Armenia have beaten Slovakia 3-1 and drawn 2-2 at Republic of Macedonia within that run so they’re a side that needs to be respected here; they’re really not the rubbing rags that they used to be.

Ideally, I’d like Armenia to score here because I feel Russia can score from set pieces against the Armenians as their defence isn’t great. However, I’d be surprised to see Russia score more than twice here so a single goal for Armenia would see this bet come in and I think they’re capable of it. A decent number of their squad either have or do ply their trade in Eastern Europe with veteran goalkeeper Berezovskiy having played in Russia for a number of years now. Movsisyan is at FK Krasnodar, Hovsepyan was at Zenit St.Petersburg for a few years etc. Arakelyan and Mkrtchyan play at Metalurg Donetsk in the Ukraine, which is where Shakhtar Donetsk signed Mkhitaryan from. Arzumanyan and Hayrapetyan both play in the top division of Poland and Zebelyan plays in Belarus with Dinamo Minsk. All in all, the point I’m trying to make is that Armenia are not as big a bunch of nobodies as people tend to assume they are. I think they’re more than capable of causing a shock today if they show up as they usually do and giving them a +1.5 goal head start at 6/5 appeals to me today.

Verdict: Armenia to win with a +1.5 goal handicap at 6/5.

 

Accumulator fodder:

Zambia, England, France U23, Levadia Tallinn, Pogon Szczecin.

Recommended bets:

No multiples appeal to me today, sorry guys!