South Africa vs Spain
FreeToday’s featured game is the Confederations Cup game between hosts South Africa and favourites to lift the cup – Spain. There’s no denying that the Spaniards are twice, perhaps even three times as good as the South Africa team. The South Africans do have a home advantage but not one I expect to count because the gulf in class is really very big. Spain don’t need to win this game; they’ve already qualified for the next round. The only place they can move to is 2nd place if South Africa beat them today but it doesn’t change an awful lot. South Africa are through to the final round if they get at least one point today. If they lose, the side that goes through to the next round of the Confederations Cup will be the side that has the best goal difference between South Africa and Iraq, under the assumpton that Iraq win their game against New Zealand, at which I’d be baffled if they failed to beat a side that is somehow getting even worse! I can’t see how South Africa are going to repel a flambuoyant Spain. Spain struggled against an organised Iraq, but the hosts are under pressure to perform and aren’t the most organised of outfits. For me, the scoreline is going to be at least 2-0 so my tip for this game is Spain to win with a -1.5 goal handicap at an excellent price of 11/5.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
South Africa vs Spain – Spain to win with -1.5 goal handicap at 11/5 – see introduction for full details
Tunisia vs Nigeria – home win at 6/4. There’s a large difference in styles of football developing in the African continent between the North African sides (i.e. Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, Algeria etc.) and the rest of Africa (Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Ghana etc.). The Northern African nations are beginning to play football more like the European nations; more calculated, tactically astute and efficient. The other African sides still rely upon loose tactics, tenacity and flair of their better players. What you’ll tend to find is that the Northern African sides tend to get one over on their neighbours to the south. Tunisia vs Nigeria is a classic example of this. The Nigerians have long been one of the biggest footballing nations in Africa but haven’t been great for some time now. Tunisia are stealthily rising up through the African sides to be known as one of the best which is why I think taking them to win this game at 6/4 is a potential steal. Also, please bear in mind that the hosts haven’t lost at home in just over a year!
Independiente vs San Lorenzo de Almagro – home win at 6/5. Despite being the worst away side in the division, Independiente are one of the better home sides in the league, despite their poor league positioning. There’s actually only two sides in the entire division that have won more home games than them this season. For this reason, I’m choosing to ignore their poor run of 4 defeats from 5 games, especially as they’re hosting a San Lorenzo de Almagro side that have lost their last 3 games in a row. I’m sensing a real bargain when it comes to backing a home win at 6/5 here, guys!
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras – away win at 13/8. Palmeiras are one of the strongest sides in the Brazilian Serie A this campaign and their form is certainly proving it. With 4 wins and 2 draws from their 6 games played in this campaign, Palmeiras are surprisingly still seeking out their first away victory, which is a potential reason for such good odds. Fortunately for us, the gamblers, they’re travelling to a side in ridiculously poor form that have lost 3 out of 3 home games this campaign. The only slight reservation I have regarding this game is the morale after Palmeiras exited the Copa Libertadores mid-week in Uruguay to Club Nacional de Montevideo. Even so – they’ve got nothing left to play for currently but the league so I think they’ll go all out and this is the perfect opportunity to maintain their excellent start – potential bargain odds here.
Avai vs Fluminense – away win at 6/4. This is one of my more dubious tips of the day but one that I still think holds water. Avai have drawn 3 games out of 3 at home this season and Fluminense have drawn 2 away games from 2 this season, so all indicators point to a draw. However, that’s ignoring the fact that Avai are shit. I hate to be so blunt, but it’s accurate. Fluminense, however, are not shit and in fact are playing pretty damn well this season. They’ve only lost 1 game this season and barely concede any goals. However, their big problem is goalscoring, as they hardly seem to do it. What we really don’t want is Avai to take the lead in this game else it could well be curtains for an away win. Taking under 2.5 goals is also a bet worthy of your consideration, should you not wish to take on the away win.
Chengdu Blades vs Changsha Ginde – home win at 6/5. What you need to understand about the Chinese Super League is that it adheres to home wins more than the average league. Look at the stats so far this season, for instance – all barring two sides in the division have won at least 50% of their home games. Only arguably the three best sides in the division have won more than 1 away game this season also. This is the main fundamental behind my reasoning for a home win today. Chengdu Blades have won 3 out of 5 home games this season with visitors Changsha Ginde having only claimed 1 draw from 4 away games, 3 of those games being defeats. However, all that said, do approach with some caution – Chengdu Blades aren’t the best of sides!!
LDU-Portoviejo vs Deportivo Cuenca – home win at 6/5. Deportivo Cuenca are having a very strange campaign that means they’re virtually unable to get any kind of result away from home despite their quality and tremendous home form. Despite being new to the division, LDU-Portoviejo are a gritty side that are beginning to become rather adept at taking necessary home points with 5 wins from 9 games. As I mentioned earlier, Deportivo Cuenca are really struggling away from home with just 1 win and 1 draw from 9 games this season. I think the bookies have taken into consideration that the visitors have got a good amount of quality that isn’t being shown on the road which is possibly why the odds are so good. Either way, I’m content to take a home win here.
Kawasaki Frontale vs Oita Trinita – home win with -1.5 handicap at 6/4. The Japanese J-League is one of the more difficult leagues to bet on because the gulf in class isn’t massive. However, this game sees a very good Kawasaki Frontale host arguably the worst side in the division – Oita Trinita. The visitors have lost every away game this season (6 out of 6) and I really can’t see that changing today. Kawasaki Frontale have 4 wins and 1 draw from 5 home games and love to score goals at home. For those reasons, taking in-form Kawasaki Frontale at -1.5 goal handicap odds of 6/4 seems an absolute bargain.
Kashima Antlers vs Jubilo Iwata – home win with -1.5 handicap at 6/4. Much like the previous description, Kashima Antlers entertain Jubilo Iwata with the hosts having a very dominating home record this season. Kashima Antlers, arguably one of the best sides in Japan, have made a tremendous start to the season with 9 wins from 12 games. As far as home form goes, they’ve won 5 games from 6, drawing the other. They’re not the biggest when it comes to scoring goals at home, which is possibly why it’s good odds to take them at 6/4 with a -1.5 goal handicap, but they are efficient in disposing of opposition without conceding many goals, having only conceded 3 goals at home all season, averaging 1 goal every 2 games. Jubilo Iwata aren’t terrible on the road with a record of 1 win, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 6 games. However, what has tilted the scales dramatically in the favour of the hosts is that Jubilo Iwata are one of the biggest conceding sides in the division currently and Kashima Antlers, who have won their 6 league games in a row, will look to take advantage of that and my opinion is that they certainly will. Again, 6/4 is a very good price for this bet, well worth your consideration.
Kashiwa Reysol vs FC Tokyo – away win with draw no bet at 10/11. I’m always cautious with away wins in the Far East and I emphasise you all to follow a similar pattern. However, I’m bending my guidelines for this slightly just for this game today. FC Tokyo’s away wins this season are bettered only by league leaders Kashima Antlers despite the visitors being 14th place in the league. Their form is hit-and-miss, as you can no doubt guess from the above information, but today they travel to drastically out-of-form Kashiwa Reysol, who have only won 1 game at home this season from 6 games, which includes 3 defeats. The hosts haven’t won in the last 5 league games, losing 4 and drawing 1. All of these facts bode ominously towards an away win. However, as I have mentioned earlier, do approach with caution as I recommend taking FC Tokyo at 10/11 draw no bet because they’re not that good a side; they’re just good on the road. My final point is a rather quirky one that may just help you make up your mind – the last 3 league meetings between these two sides have all been a 1-0 away win – give it some thought!
As ever, any queries/explanations required, feel free to email me at thefootytipster@gmail.com. For the complete picks listing, see below!
Confederations Cup:
Iraq vs New Zealand (7) 2-0
South Africa vs Spain (8) 0-2
World Cup Qualifiers – African section:
Tunisia vs Nigeria (6) 1-0
Zambia vs Algeria (6) 2-1
Kenya vs Mozambique (8) 2-0
Gabon vs Cameroon (7) over 2.5 goals
Sudan vs Ghana (7) 1-2
Burkina Faso vs Ivory Coast (8) over 2.5 goals
Morocco vs Togo (8) 2-0
Argentinian Primera Division:
Independiente vs San Lorenzo de Almagro (6) 2-1
Gimnasia y Esgrima de Jujuy vs Racing Club Avellaneda (7) 1-1
Tigre vs Rosario Central (6) 1-1
Brazilian Serie A:
Vitoria vs Botafogo (8) under 2.5 goals
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras (7) 1-2
Santo Andre vs Sport Recife (7) 1-1
Gremio vs Goias (7) 2-1
Nautico vs Coritiba (6) 1-1
Avai vs Fluminense (7) 1-2
Chinese Super League:
Shenzhen vs Jiangsu Shuntian (7) 2-1
Chengdu Blades vs Changsha Ginde (8) 2-1
Shandong Luneng vs Chongqing Lifan (9) 2-0
Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Yiyao (7) 1-0
Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Shide (8) 2-0
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Deportivo Quito vs Manta (7) 2-1
Deportivo Espoli Cayambe vs Olmedo Riobamba (5) 1-1
Liga de Quito vs El Nacional Quito (7) 2-1
LDU-Portoviejo vs Deportivo Cuenca (6) 1-0
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Flora Paide vs Sillamae Kalev (9) 1-3
Trans Narva vs Kuressaare (10) -2.75 handicap
Nomme Kalju vs Tallinna Kalev (8) 2-0
Maag Tammeka Tartu vs Tulevik Viljandi (8) 1-2
Levadia Tallinn vs Flora Tallinn (7) 2-1
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
B36 Torshavn vs 07 Vestur Sorvagur (8)
NSI Runavik vs EB/Streymur (8)
Irish Premier League:
Shamrock Rovers vs Galway United (8) 2-1
Japanese J-League:
Kawasaki Frontale vs Oita Trinita (9) 3-1
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Montedio Yamagata (5) 1-1
Nagoya Grampus vs JEF United Ichihara (7) 2-1
Gamba Osaka vs Albirex Niigata (8) 2-0
Kashima Antlers vs Jubilo Iwata (9) 3-1
Omiya Ardiya vs Kyoto Purple Sanga (7) 1-1
Kashiwa Reysol vs FC Tokyo (7) 1-2
Norwegian Tippeligaen:
Sandefjord Fotball vs Valerenga Oslo (6) 2-2
Aalesunds vs Rosenborg BK (8) 1-2
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Albacete Balompie vs Deportivo Alaves (8)
Levante vs Las Palmas (6)
Eibar vs Gimnastic de Tarragona (7)
Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Xerez (7)
Alicante vs Sevilla Atletico (6)
Salamanca vs Hercules Alicante (7)
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Real Zaragoza (6)
Elche vs Real Sociedad (8)
Cordoba vs Real Murcia (6)
Huesca vs Girona (7)
Enjoy your free betting tips!