Spain vs Argentina
FreeToday’s featured game is the international friendly between heavyweights Spain and Argentina. Generally, these kind of games are money-spinners and a game where neither side wants to lose to avoid any early media cries of how they’re going to fail at the World Cup etc. However, I’m breaking the trend and backing Spain in this game tonight! A bold call, perhaps, between two very good sides, but Argentina haven’t played a good game of football for the past twelve months and I’m frankly astounded that they’ve managed to qualify for the World Cup. With manager Diego Maradona under increasing pressure, this Argentina side have looked frail and devoid of the attributes which you tend to associated with the Argentinian sides of the past. Largely, world-class winger Lionel Messi hasn’t really got going properly this season with some inconsistent displays, which is the last thing that Argentina need. Spain will be missing key striker Fernando Torres, which will hurt them, but frankly the Spain sides always look a great unit with tremendous creativity so little David Villa could still pose a great threat to a dodgy Argentina defence. I’d be tempted to go under 2.5 goals at 4/5 because I think both sides will be play a somewhat refined game of football, which isn’t the atypical hispanic feature but a friendly does tend to bring about this type of scoreline. However, I’m more tempted to take a fluent and talented Spain squad to beat a weak and disorganised Argentina team, which is why they’re my bet of the day!
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Spain vs Argentina – home win at 10/11 – see introduction for full details.
Republic of Ireland vs France – away win at 7/5. I’m going to go against the majority here who are backing underdogs Republic of Ireland to do the business against France. A few months ago, I’d have agreed with those people but I can’t do that after seeing France in their last few games and seeing what motivates their players too. France have played some atrocious football since 2002 but have finally played some convincing games lately. A credible 1-1 draw in Serbia with ten men, a 3-1 victory at home to Austria and a 5-0 drubbing of the Faroe Islands has done much to convince me that the France players have finally put their dummies back in, stopped blaming the coach, and got on with the possibility of them competing in the World Cup. I daresay their motivation for this tournament is nothing other than money by majority but it’s enough to see a side win a game more often than not. Their results against Faroe Islands and Austria may seem expected to the untrained eye but let’s bear in mind that France have done two things in their latest games that they’ve not done much at all lately; win and score goals. France may only have players that are by majority only motivated by the prospect of a bigger wage packet with a bigger move if they reach the World Cup but that’s enough for a side a game of football. I don’t think any logical person can state anything other than that France are a better side than Republic of Ireland and I expect it to show tonight for a change. Republic of Ireland are resilient under Trapattoni and they’re quite well-organised but they still find goals awfully hard to come by. As much as I’d love to believe that Republic of Ireland will win this game, I think they’re playing France at the wrong time and may get more than they bargained for. Make no mistake – I’ll be rooting for Republic of Ireland to dispose of France, who are only here because of Michel Platini’s dodgy antics behind the scenes, but the above tells me an away win at 7/5 is a very real possibility.
Portugal vs Bosnia-Herzegovina – over 2.5 goals at 5/6. Portugal without Cristiano Ronaldo is a very ordinary-looking Portugal that look rather prone against sides that should be beating of late. However, Portugal do have players in their squad that can score a goal at any time and a weak Bosnia-Herzegovina defence should be somewhat easily breached by a bit of clever play. However, Bosnia-Herzegovina’s strength is scoring goals, something that is perfectly illustrated by the fact that only Germany, Spain, and England have scored more goals than they have in this competition and those three sides won their respective groups! I don’t consider Bosnia-Herzegovina’s group particularly easy either – it’s simply the lethal combination of Dzeko in attack with Misimovic pulling the strings that is doing the damage. I don’t think Portugal are good enough to win this game without conceding but I do think that they have to win this game – they won’t fancy the away leg much. For me, taking over 2.5 goals at 5/6 looks a bargain today!
Costa Rica vs Uruguay – home win at 13/8. This should be an absolutely fantastic game of football with both sides keen to play the beautiful game. Like most North American/South American sides, the strength of each side is at home. Costa Rica have won four of their last five qualifying games at home and Uruguay are no great threat than USA, in my opinion, who have already lost here in recent times. Uruguay have lost four of their last nine away competitive away games, drawing three times and winning just twice. Uruguay don’t score enough goals away from home on average and I feel that could do them damage against a difficult and highly-motivated Costa Rica side, particularly in the intimidating atmosphere that is bound to be created at this game. Neither of these two sides can defend for shit, however, so this game should be very open with plenty of goals. Regardless of this, however, the home win at 13/8 looks a favourable bet for me today.
Banfield vs Velez Sarsfeld – home win at 6/5. This is a very difficult call for me to make because I rate Velez Sarsfeld considerably higher than Banfield. However, an exit from the Copa Nissan Sudamericana that was swiftly followed by a demolition by rivals Estudiantes De La Plata have left Velez Sarsfeld battered and bewildered. The visitors have now lost three of their last five competitive games and have only beaten sides that are without a doubt at the lower end of the food chain. Banfield are having a great season so far, which is surprising but refreshing nonetheless. Currently atop the table, Banfield are unbeaten in thirteen league games, a run that has seen them win a superb eight games, four of which have now been won consecutively in their last four games. Banfield are looking a very hard side to deal with and it’s easy to see that the foundation of their success is that they’ve conceded less goals than any other side in the Primera Division with an average of less than a goal per every other game conceded. For a hispanic side, this is beyond a magnificent achievment, I can tell you! Aside from that, Banfield have won five out of their last six home games, a record that only title rivals Estudiantes De La Plata can mirror. With Velez Sarsfeld’s away form beginning to look a little patchy and their morale brusied, I think there’s potentially some good value in the home win at 6/5.
Cruzeiro vs Gremio – home win at 3/4. These odds are absolutely astounding – seriously! Gremio, despite their “giant” status in Brazilian football, are one of the worst away sides in Serie A currently with no side having lost more away games than they have. Even bottom-placed Sport Recife have lost less away games than Gremio this year, which is rather remarkable. Gremio are caught between a rock and a hard place at the moment with nothing to play for with the season ending soon enough and their form reflects that. Hosts Cruzeiro have title aspirations and their recent form shows four wins in their last five games, which shows that they’re going to push the sides above them right to the wire for the Serie A title. For me, there’s a strangely large gap between these two here today that is indicated by the above despite there not being much quality difference between the two sides so the home win at 3/4 could turn out to be a good bet tonight.
Hartlepool United vs Leyton Orient – home win at 5/6. Despite an atrocious defeat at home by Kettering Town in their last match in the FA Cup, Hartlepool United demonstrated some good football lately and are unbeaten in their last four games, winning twice and drawing twice. Hartlepool United aren’t backed up by a convincing home record but their momentum at the moment is good. Atypically, it wouldn’t be enough for me to back them to win this game. However, visitors Leyton Orient look quite likely to taste defeat here as they’ve already lost four of their seven away games in League One this year. Only Gillingham have conceded more away goals than Leyton Orient in this campaign and with just one win (and two defeats!) in their last four games, it’s hard to see their run ending as they travel to an in-form Hartlepool United. For me, there’s value in the home win today.
Shrewsbury Town vs Torquay United – home win at 5/6. Despite managing to somehow lose at home to Staines Town in the FA Cup lately, Shrewsbury Town remain a convincing home side with four wins from seven home games. They’ve only been defeated at home twice in League Two this year but are one of the lowest conceding sides at home too. Remaining unbeaten in their last two League Two games will give Shrewsbury Town some momentum ahead of this game with Torquay United, which really should be enough to dispose of the newly-promoted side. Visitors Torquay United have lost four from seven away games already in this campaign, managing just one victory on the road. That said, Torquay United are unbeaten in their last five games, winning once and drawing four times, for which I respect them. However, aside from a 2-2 draw at Notts County when the hosts were in a bad spell, I don’t particularly rate any of Torquay United’s opponents since then. However, I do rate Shrewsbury Town and the home side definitely have the quality advantage over the visitors today. That coupled with the impressive home form of Shrewsbury Town makes me think that the home win at 5/6 could be a good bet today.
Republic of Macedonia vs Canada – home win at evens. First things first – approach this game with caution as it is a friendly. Regardless of that fact, however, Republic of Macedonia look good to win this game in my opinion. They’re the atypical Balkan nation – a few very good players and some other players that make up the numbers. However, Republic of Macedonia have played well this year, in my opinion, and I see no reason why that should falter in this friendly against Canada. The visitors aren’t greatly known on the footballing circuit because…well, because they’re rarely on it! They’ve produced some good footballers over the years but no great national side. Canada are a decent side but not good enough to resist a good Republic of Macedonia in my eyes. For me, there’s some good value in the home win at evens.
Croatia vs Liechtenstein – under 2.5 goals at 11/5. This is a bold call but given the massive problems Croatia have faced both on and off the field lately, it stands to reason that an unconvincing performance will rear its ugly head and a gritty Liechtenstein are the kind of side that will make a demoralised Croatia sweat a little. Croatia definitely aren’t the same squad that they were a couple of years ago, which is a shame because I liked watching their football. However, Croatia do still boast some very good players and are more than capable of winning this game comfortbly. However, I’m going to say that they’ll not reach their own standards in a game that means nothing so taking under 2.5 goals at 11/5 could be a good bet here today with a bit of luck!
Honduras vs Latvia – home win at 3/4. This is a really odd game! How often do you see a decent Central American nation take on a below average European nation at home in a friendly?! Not often! What makes this fixture even more bizarre is that although I rate Honduras as the better footballing side, Latvia have played some very good football themselves lately and scored a lot of goals in the process. This should actually be a very good game of football with both sides going for it with nothing to lose in this friendly. However, I think Honduras will end up playing a style of football that Latvia simply aren’t used to dealing with and will thus have the upper hand providing that the take their chances. The intimidating atmosphere of playing in Honduras will undoubtedly affect the Latvians in this game so I think the home win at 3/4 could be a very good bet tonight. I can understand why the bookies have put out such tentative odds though – this game could bear witness to some very strange things.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
World Cup Qualifiers – European section:
Russia vs Slovenia (8) 2-0
Greece vs Ukraine (7) 0-0
Republic of Ireland vs France (6) 0-1
Portugal vs Bosnia-Herzegovina (7) over 2.5 goals
World Cup Qualifiers – African section:
Kenya vs Nigeria (7) 1-2
Mozambique vs Tunisia (7) 0-1
Rwanda vs Zambia (5) 1-2
Morocco vs Cameroon (6) 1-1
Togo vs Gabon (6) 0-0
Burkina Faso vs Malawi (8) 2-0
Ivory Coast vs Guinea (8) over 2.5 goals
Sudan vs Benin (6) 1-2
Egypt vs Algeria (7) under 2.5 goals
World Cup Qualifiers – Play-Offs:
New Zealand vs Bahrain (6) under 2.5 goals
Costa Rica vs Uruguay (7) 2-1
Asian Cup:
Uzbekistan vs Malaysia (8) 2-0
Singapore vs Thailand (6) 1-1
Vietnam vs Syria (5) 1-1
Oman vs Australia (7) 0-1
Iran vs Jordan (8) 1-0
Lebanon vs China (5) 0-0
Kuwait vs Indonesia (7) 2-0
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Georgia U21 vs Republic of Ireland U21 (6) 1-1
Armenia U21 vs Estonia U21 (5) 0-0
England U21 vs Portugal U21 (6) 1-1
Montenegro U21 vs Israel U21 (5) 0-1
Romania U21 vs Latvia U21 (8) 2-0
Moldova U21 vs Russia U21 (9) 0-2
Cyprus U21 vs Croatia U21 (6) 1-2
Azerbaijan U21 vs Scotland U21 (6) 0-1
Turkey U21 vs Switzerland U21 (8) over 2.5 goals
Argentinian Primera Division:
Banfield vs Velez Sarsfeld (6) 1-0
Colon de Santa Fe vs Argentinos Juniors (7) 2-1
Belgian Tweede Klasse:
Turnhout vs Lierse (7)
Tubize vs Dender (6) under 2.5 goals
KVSK United vs Mons (6)
Beveren vs Tournai (6)
Brazilian Serie A:
Coritiba vs Atletico Mineiro (6) 1-1
Cruzeiro vs Gremio (8) 2-1
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria (9) 3-1
Colombian Futbol Profesional:
La Equidad Bogota vs Cucuta Deportivo (5) 1-1
Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas Manizales (8) 2-0
Cypriot Division 1:
A.E.Paphos vs Enosis Neon Paralimni (6) 2-1
Doxa vs APOP/Kinyras (7) 0-1
APEP vs Anorthosis Famagusta (8) 0-2
Danish 1st Division:
Thisted vs Frem (6)
Skive vs AC Horsens (7)
English League One:
Huddersfield Town vs Wycombe Wanderers (8)
Brentford vs Millwall (6)
Bristol Rovers vs Carlisle United (5)
Charlton Athletic vs Milton Keynes Dons (6)
Colchester United vs Exeter City (8)
Gillingham vs Oldham Athletic (6)
Hartlepool United vs Leyton Orient (7)
Norwich City vs Tranmere Rovers (8)
Walsall vs Stockport County (6)
Yeovil Town vs Southend United (5)
English League Two:
Accrington Stanley vs Dagenham & Redbridge (7)
Aldershot Town vs Macclesfield Town (6)
Barnet vs Hereford United (7)
Bradford City vs Bournemouth (5)
Bury vs Notts County (6)
Crewe Alexandra vs Morecambe (6)
Darlington vs Burton Albion (6) over 2.5 goals
Lincoln City vs Cheltenham Town (7)
Northampton Town vs Grimsby Town (8)
Port Vale vs Rotherham United (6) draw no bet
Rochdale vs Chesterfield (5)
Shrewsbury Town vs Torquay United (7)
Greek B Ethniki:
Aigaelo Athens vs Olympiakos Volos (8)
International Friendlies:
Angola vs Congo (6) 1-1
Estonia vs Albania (7) 0-0
Wales vs Scotland (6) 1-1
Republic of Macedonia vs Canada (7) over 2.5 goals
Poland vs Romania (5) 1-1
Croatia vs Liechtenstein (10) under 2.5 goals
Luxembourg vs Iceland (7) 1-2
Belgium vs Hungary (6) 2-1
South Africa vs Japan (7) 0-1
Slovakia vs USA (5) 1-1
Switzerland vs Norway (6) 0-0
Brazil vs England (in Qatar) (5) 1-1
Northern Ireland vs Serbia (7) under 2.5 goals
Denmark vs South Korea (6) under 2.5 goals
Italy vs Netherlands (8) 1-1
Spain vs Argentina (8) under 2.5 goals
Honduras vs Latvia (8) 2-0
Mexican Primera Division:
Puebla vs Toluca (5) 1-0
Pachuca vs Tigres UANL (6) 1-1
Monterrey vs Morelia (6) 2-1
Jaguares vs Atlas (5) 2-1
Guadalajara vs Cruz Azul (6) 1-2
Queretaro vs San Luis (6) 0-1
Atlante vs Estudiantes Tecos (6) 1-0
Portuguese Liga de Honra:
Estoril vs Freamunde (7)
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Levante vs Girona (6) under 2.5 goals
Recreativo de Huelva vs Huesca (7)
Albacete vs Real Sociedad (7)
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Real Murcia (7) under 2.5 goals
Real Union Club de Irun vs Las Palmas (5)
Castellon vs Elche (6) draw no bet
Villarreal II vs Cadiz (5)
Spanish Segunda B:
Group 1:
Osasuna II vs Compostela (7)
Group 4:
San Roque vs Ecija Balompie (7) over 2.5 goals
Welsh Premier League:
Newi Cefn Druids vs Haverfordwest County (6) 1-1
Connah’s Quay Nomads vs Port Talbot Town (6) 1-2
Newtown vs Carmarthen Town (7) 1-1
Porthmadog vs Prestatyn Town (6) 0-1
Rhyl vs Caersws (9) -1.75 handicap
Enjoy your free betting tips!