Steaua Bucharest vs Pandurii Targu Jiu
FreeToday’s featured game is the Romanian Liga encounter between giants Steaua Bucharest and relegation-threatened Pandurii Targu Jiu. The hosts have failed to impress on a consistent basis this season due to the revolving door put in place by chairman Gigi but they should be able to secure a win against a poor Pandurii side with some ease today.
However, Steaua winning this game doesn’t greatly interest me at odds of 1/4 other than as accumulator fodder. For me, the value in this game is in the under 2.5 goals selection at 3/4. Generally speaking, for me to tip something at 3/4, I have to have a lot of confidence in it and I really do have faith in this one.
Why? Well, Steaua are obviously the better of these two sides but Pandurii are not the type of side to lose by four or five goals. They’re generally not good enough to stop the defeats coming, hence their predicament, but they’re usually solid enough defensively to keep the scoreline respectable. It’s hard to envision Steaua being good enough to destroy Pandurii here when they’re already onto their third manager of the current campaign – which is club legend Marius Lacatus, who is back for yet another spell in charge – so I don’t have much faith in Steaua resurrecting their old dominating manner today. A 1-1 draw in the Netherlands against FC Utrecht last week will give Steaua a bit of a momentum boost ahead of this game today but I still fancy them to be a little tired from the journey. The problem with their potential tiredness is that Pandurii are a side that are hard to break down – it requires a lot of tenacity and creativity, two things that are frequently damaged by tiredness – so I think Steaua may struggle here. Two out of Steaua’s last three home games in the Liga have gone under 2.5 goals and if take away the goals from their opponents in all of their home games then four out of their five home games have gone under 2.5 goals. Why is that relevant? Well, I don’t expect Pandurii to score here because they don’t attack away from home – they simply defend – which partially suits Steaua as Steaua can’t defend for shit currently. Basically, Steaua fail to blow sides away nowadays and I don’t think that will change tonight.
Will Pandurii produce their usual bus-in-front-of-goal routine though? Undoubtedly. You had to wonder if they were going to change their ultra-defensive tactics when International bought out their rights at the end of last season and brought in a lot of their ex-players but no, Pandurii have remained exactly the same only with a lot more new faces. You may think I’m exaggerating here but I’m genuinely not – Pandurii simply do not attack away from home! They’ve scored just once on the road this season and that was at Steaua’s title rivals CFR Cluj and yes, you guessed it – it was from the penalty spot! Pandurii are bereft of creativity and finesse, especially away from home so I’ll be more than surprised to see them register a goal here despite Steaua’s questionable defending. Barring that one spell where Pandurii became dizzy and actually attacked for a change, Pandurii’s games have gone under 2.5 goals four times out of five on the road because they don’t score goals. With that in mind, it’s no real surprise that they’ve failed to score at Steaua for five consecutive visits here.
Pandurii are simply defensive moguls and although Steaua’s approach is a lot more respectable, it’s only marginally more effective. I expect Pandurii to give dishevelled Steaua a rough ride today, although not via the quality department. I think Steaua are going to struggle to break Pandurii down, as usual, although I do expect them to win the game somehow. The last five meetings between these two sides in Bucharest have gone under 2.5 goals, usually ending 1-0 so a scoreline bet may be worth a punt here. However, odds of 3/4 on this game going under 2.5 goals looks far too generous to me – should be much closer to 1/2 with the above information in mind.
It may also be worth looking at HT draw/FT home win odds for a fun bet, if you feel so inclined!
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Le Havre vs Nimes – home win at 4/5.
I don’t believe there’s as much between these two sides as the Ligue 2 table would have you believe but I still fancy Le Havre to edge this one. They’ve demonstrated their experience well this season by making the most of their home games, winning four times and drawing once in five games. They only average scoring just over 1.5 goals per home game but their mean defence tends to result in them winning games when coupled with the previous statistic. A solid 0-2 win at Istres last match will give Le Havre the momentum they need to win this game after a slightly concerning run of two consecutive draws, albeit in fairly hard games, so I expect to see Le Havre back to their best tonight.
Nimes, however, are finding life very tough at the moment. They’re not a patch on the side that they were away from home last season with four defeats and one draw being all they have to show from five Ligue 2 away games this season. They’ve not defended badly, to their credit – they’ve only conceded six goals in five away games – but they look utterly inept in front of goal with just one goal scored along the way and that is going to be a big problem tonight against a watertight Le Havre defence. Nimes are without a win in three consecutive games now and two of those games have been shocking home defeats, the most recent of which was a 1-3 humbling by newly-promoted Evian Thonon Gaillard. Nimes’ strength always used to be at home but they look vulnerable everywhere currently. It has to be frustrating for their fans though, to be able to beat Sedan-Ardennes at home one week and then lose at home to the likes of Le Mans. Much like their fans, I simply have no faith in this current Nimes side, as good as they can be as they’re just not showing it so I think we should see something similar to lambs going to slaughter tonight although in a more low-scoring affair!
Le Havre lost at home to Nimes last season so they’ll be looking to extract revenge here. They’ve beaten better sides than the current Nimes outfit at home this season and really should be able to make it count today with their opponents in such poor form, especially away from home.
Verdict: Le Havre to win at 4/5.
SSC Napoli vs AC Milan – home win with draw no bet at evens.
Everyone seems to love AC Milan at the moment and I’m not entirely sure why. I used to love AC Milan – they were one of “my teams” in Italy – but they’re getting so old and predictable now that it’s hard to take them seriously. Yes, they do have four fabulous attacking players – Robinho, Ibrahimovic, Ronaldinho, and Pato respectively – but you are noticing that those players are all they’ve got, right? They’ve got some magnificent players like Gattuso and Pirlo that I have nothing but the utmost respect for but they’re too easy to defend against in Serie A as age catches up with them. Berlusconi is not doing enough to prepare for the future and as a result, I genuinely believe you will not see AC Milan in European competition in years to come without heavy financial investment that Berlusconi just hasn’t got.
AC Milan’s form this season is flattering, in my opinion – I don’t believe they’ve played well since they destroyed Lecce 4-0 on the opening day of the season. They look vulnerable all over the park, especially to pace, and Naples is not place to go to with any kind of visible vulnerability. AC Milan have only beaten relegation-threatened Parma on the road this season and that’s because Parma didn’t score – everyone else that has scored against AC Milan when the Rossoneri are away from home have managed to avoid defeat rather comfortably. Indeed, a cheeky Cesena side plucked three points from their home game against their more illustrious opponents purely thanks to tactical brilliance and tenacious players so it’s really not that hard to dismantle AC Milan if you get them on the back foot.
Ever since SSC Napoli returned to Serie A a few years ago, AC Milan have failed to win at San Paolo, losing once and drawing twice. I’d argue that Napoli haven’t been as good as they are now in many years with the likes of Cavani, Lavezzi, and Hamsik considered amongst the best of Serie A’s attacking players. Cavani in particular looks very good at the moment, in my opinion, as he is maturing a lot more quickly than I’d anticipated. However, despite their obvious ability, Napoli themselves can be a tad frustrating as a bizarre 1-3 scoreline at home to Chievo Verona last month indicated all too well. Nonetheless, Napoli have looked a good level stronger since then, even beating AS Roma 2-0 so I have no doubts over their ability here. Midfielder Gargano’s tenacity and Sosa’s pace should cause AC Milan no end of problems tonight, not to mention pacey Lavezzi in attack. I have my concerns over Napoli’s defence without Cannavaro but they should be able to trouble AC Milan sufficiently to not lose this game tonight.
Summarised – we should see a pretty good game here between two sides that I feel are rather equal, although I’d probably edge towards Napoli on the variety front and AC Milan on the experience front. However, no trip to Naples is easy and I expect AC Milan to have yet another reminder of that tonight. For me, Napoli have a good chance of winning this game against a predictable AC Milan side and backing them to win the game with draw no bet appeals to me at evens.
Team news – AC Milan miss Jankulovski, Ambrosini, and Thiago Silva through injury whilst SSC Napoli miss Cannavaro and Lucarelli through injury.
Verdict: SSC Napoli to win with draw no bet at evens.
Chiasso vs Lausanne Sports – away win at 6/5.
Newly-promoted Chiasso have adapted well to the Challenge League in terms of not losing although they don’t appear to have grasped the concept of “winning” yet! Chiasso are a great counter-attack side but their home form suffers immensely as that is their only method of scoring goals, basically. Chiasso have failed to win any of their three home games this season, drawing twice and losing once. They aren’t the most secure defensively but they do score goals on counter-attacks and that usually bails them out. However, at home, they have to attack and that just doesn’t suit them one bit. Unfortunately for Chiasso, they’re hosting what is undisputedly the best side in the Challenge League at the moment – Lausanne Sports. The only hope Chiasso can have here is that Lausanne are tired from their mid-week trip to the Czech Republic in the UEFAE uropa League game against Sparta Prague in which Lausanne came back claim a heroic 3-3 draw. That sums Lausanne Sports up though – they never say die and they’re a constant threat on goal if given chance. Lausanne have already won three out of four on the road in the Challenge League this season and boast one of the tightest defences in the division. In all honesty, if they’re not a Super League side next season then there’s something seriously wrong – they’re just too good for this division! The experience of Celestini and Marazzi in the middle of the park is vital for Lausanne whilst Rodrigo gets forward to support Lausanne’s danger men Silvio, Roux, and even Munsy in attack. Lausanne tend to have a lot of options in attack which is why they do so well as few other sides in this division can even match their varied attack.
So, yeah – Lausanne are the better side and really should win this one. I’m not entirely sure why Lausanne are so long here – Chiasso are little more than a newly-promoted counter-attacking team with nothing to lose and everything to gain. I think a composed display from the visitors will see them win this game comfortably and odds of 6/5 are good enough to take a chance on here.
Verdict: Lausanne Sports to win at 6/5.
Kayserispor vs Besiktas JK – home win with draw no bet at evens.
Besiktas JK has never looked more apt as a team name if “JK” is short for “joke”. They’ve lost three consecutive games now in all competitions, which just isn’t good enough. I can accept a defeat at Trabzonspor – they’re looking better than they have done in years – but to lose at home to Manisaspor is totally unacceptable. They then lost at home to Porto, which you may think is acceptable, but considering that Besiktas were playing against ten men for most of the game (it was 0-1 at the time of the sending off) and then went on to lose the game 1-3 despite Porto being reduced to nine men later in the game and it then looks unacceptable, at least in my eyes. Besiktas are still a good side but they’re not playing well at all and Kayseri is not the place to visit without 100% committment and composure, frankly, and Besiktas know that! Besiktas have lost four out of their last five visits to Kayserispor and I think they’re enough for another rough ride today as they struggle to defend with any degree of competence although their attack is always a threat, especially with Bobo eternally on the prowl! However, Kayserispor have been edging up the Super Lig ladder for some time now and I personally consider them a top six side. Few sides visit Kayseri and leave with three points as Fenerbahce and Trabzonspor have both already discovered this season with the former even losing here. Kayserispor drubbed Sivasspor 4-1 at home in their last game and are in high spirits as a result. It’s a shame that they lost talented Franco Cangele to injury a while back as his partnership with Zalayeta would be excellent, in my opinion. Nonetheless, emerging striker Sismanoglu is a fairly able deputy in his absence and Zalayeta is experienced enough to be a handful either way. For me, it’s Kayserispor’s midfield that is the strong point with bags of experience in there i.e. Boyraz, Teber, Santana etc. as well as creativity i.e. Moritz and I think this midfield will be too much for Besiktas tonight, frankly.
Betting against one of the giants of Turkish football is always bold so do approach with caution here, just as I have by adding the draw no bet cover. However, Kayserispor are very good at home and often show it against Besiktas so my call is for the hosts to win this one with draw no bet today against a defensively-inept giant!
Verdict: Kayserispor to win with draw no bet at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Porto, Steaua Bucharest, Orebro.
Recommended bets:
Orebro, Porto, and Napoli DNB at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Austrian Liga 1:
SCR Altach vs WAC/St.Andra (7) over 2.5 goals
Bulgarian A PFG:
Litex Lovech vs Levski Sofia (6) 1-1
Cypriot Division 1:
Ermis vs A.E.Paphos (4) 1-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slovan Liberec vs Sparta Prague (6) 1-1
Danish Superligaen:
OB Odense vs SonderjyskE (4) 1-1
English Championship:
Leeds United vs Cardiff City (5) draw no bet
French Ligue 2:
Evian Thonon Gaillard vs Sedan-Ardennes (7)
Le Havre vs Nimes (7)
German Bundesliga 2:
Erzebirge Aue vs Rot-Weiss Oberhausen (6)
Italian Serie A:
SSC Napoli vs AC Milan (6) 2-1, draw no bet
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Volendam vs RBC Roosendaal (7)
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Brann Bergen vs Kongsvinger (7) over 2.5 goals
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Porto vs Uniao de Leiria (9) -1.5 handicap
Romanian Liga:
Steaua Bucharest vs Pandurii Targu Jiu (8) under 2.5 goals
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna (5) under 2.5 goals
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Orebro vs Brommapojkarna (8) 2-0
IFK Goteborg vs Trelleborg (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Halmstad vs AIK Solna (5) 1-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Chiasso vs Lausanne Sports (6)
Winterthur vs Lugano (5) draw no bet, both sides to score
Turkish Super Lig:
Kayserispor vs Besiktas JK (6) 2-1, draw no bet
Enjoy your free betting tips!