Stjarnan Gardabaer vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar
FreeToday’s featured game is the Urvalsdeild encounter between Stjarnan Gardabaer and IBV Vestmannaeyjar. Hosts Stjarnan have typically been pissing everyone off with their insatiable tenacity and ability to score goals and their opponents today have bizarrely followed suit thus far this season so we should see an interesting game today.
Stjarnan have been notoriously good at home for the last year/year-and-a-half and it’s partially due to their artificial turf, which naturally gives them an advantage. Stjarnan aren’t good defensively but what they lack there they make up for in attack. They’re already the top goalscoring side in the Urvalsdeild this season because of their “we’ll score one more than you” attitude and are one of just three Urvalsdeild sides yet to be beaten at home. Stjarnan average scoring nearly three goals per home game and enter this game on the back of an extremely highly-motivating result as they surprisingly came from behind to win at reigning champions FH Hafnarfjordur. Stjarnan have already drubbed the best defence in Iceland – Keflavik – 4-0 here this season so don’t underestimate the misfits. They may be a mid-table side, generally speaking, but they’re incredibly strong at home and score goals for fun. Their defence, as I mentioned earlier, is weak – keep that in mind! However, they score so many goals that it’s hard to go against the driven, potent hosts.
Visitors IBV Vestmannaeyjar are having an outstanding campaign, far better than I could have possibly envisioned, so well done to them! Bafflingly, they’re third in the table despite not really having the quality to be fending off relegation so again – my respect goes to today’s visitors. They’ve got where they are because of efficient football i.e. scoring goals and holding leads. No Urvalsdeild side has won more away games than they have this season, although a few can match it, so they’re certainly worthy of your respect – whilst they’re in-form, at least. IBV are very much a momentum side and the fact that they’ve won three out of their last four games does concern me a little as they’re sure to cause problems today. Only league leaders Keflavik have conceded as few goals as IBV have in the current campaign so we have a real meeting of opposites here with Stjarnan yet to fail to score against anyone!
Personally, I think the bookies are making a mistake here. Stjarnan are a consistently good home side in this division and IBV are flying on momentum alone. Ability favours the hosts and potency does so I don’t understand why Stjarnan are as long as evens for this game. If IBV weren’t in-form, I’d not be surprised to see odds of 4/7 on the home win here. The artificial turf in Gardabaer is hard to play on and as good as IBV’s defence is at the present time, they were destroyed 3-0 here last season and very nearly got relegated last season with a very similar side so I wouldn’t read too much into their excellent form unless they’re still where they are in a month or two’s time! Either way, there looks to be terrific value in the home win for potent Stjarnan tonight, despite their defensive weakness – they should be able to outscore their opponents quite comfortably tonight.
Verdict: Stjarnan Gardabaer to win at evens.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Suduva Marijampole vs FK Ventspils – Suduva Marijampole to win at 7/5.
You have to love the Baltic League, don’t you?
Ventspils representative “Hey, Suduva!
Suduva representative “Hey, Ventspils!”
Ventspils representative “I see we’re meeting in the Baltic League Final today!”
Suduva representative “Yeah, it’s going to be amazing!”
Ventspils representative “It’s a new competition though, so where will the final be played?”
Suduva representative “I know! Let’s hold this final in Marijampole. That’s fair enough, right?”
Ventspils representative “Errr…sure, ok…”
Yes, you guessed it – the final of this competition is bizarrely at the home ground of Suduva. You’d think that the final would be played at a more neutral venue i.e. perhaps in Estonia as there are no Estonian teams competing. But no, the Baltic FA chiefs have decided it’s much fairer to give Suduva a home advantage here.
I can’t help but wonder if the bookies know that? If so, I don’t have a clue how they’ve priced Suduva at 7/5 to win this game. Both sides are good sides, don’t get me wrong – they’re both giants of their respective countries – but a home side should never be so long in a final for obvious reasons! Suduva are yet to concede a goal at home in the Baltic League this season despite hosting Ventspils’ title rivals Liepajas Metalurgs back in May, running out 3-0 winners on that day. My only fault with Suduva would be that they perhaps don’t score as many as they should due to a high dependancy on Luksys but they’re still a very able side so they’ve got a good chance today. Ventspils have only won two out of their last eight trips to Lithuania in the Baltic League and whereas they’re usually able to hold off their hosts, they’re not often able to find the winning formula. Again, Ventspils are a capable side but they’re effectively away from home here so you have to favour the hosts.
Ventspils played a game just four days ago whereas Suduva have had a full week to prepare for this game. Ventspils like to play attacking possession football, which tends to mean that they don’t concede unless they’re facing a good side, which they are today. The danger of Ventspils is that their goals come from all over the field but if Liu Chao turns up in midfield for Suduva today then the hosts should be able to do more damage to Ventspils than the average side can.
Although this will undoubtedly be a close game, I simply cannot accept that a home side for a final is at such a long price. The smaller statistics favour the hosts and I think there’s enough to go off here to stake a tentative bet on the home win today, particularly with such generous odds on offer.
Verdict: Suduva Marijampole to win at 7/5.
Dinamo Minsk vs Dnepr Mogilev – home win with -1.75 goal handicap at 7/5.
Despite Dinamo Minsk not playing as well in their last two games and playing their possessive-but-generally-low-scoring 4-5-1 formation, I really fancy this selection. Why?
Well, the gulf in class between Dinamo Minsk and Dnepr Mogilev isn’t as bad as it is between Dinamo Minsk and most sides but make no mistake – the hosts are the better side here. Dnepr Mogilev’s strength is playing at home, which can be seen from their record of just two wins from eight away games in the Vysshaya Liga this season, losing four of them along the way. Dnepr hate losing their home comforts because they concede so many goals away from home that it’s quite bizarre, which is particularly evident if you witnessed their home win against today’s opponents earlier in the season as they emerged victorious with a 1-0 win. However, Dnepr have just arrived back from a massive trip to Albania to face Laci in a UEFA Europa League Qualifier. Dnepr earned a valuable 1-1 draw after a thorough examination in hot temperatures so they’ll feel quite pleased, no doubt. However, this is their first forage into European football and three days after that test they travel to face one of the top two sides in the country with the knowledge that the vital return leg against Laci is just four days after that game. Anyone else fancy them to not only be tired but potentially rest players here? I certainly do. Dinamo’s European committments aren’t relevant for another ten days so they’re as fresh as daisies, if only a little wounded from their strange defeat at FC Vitebsk a week ago. Dinamo haven’t conceded for three consecutive home games and are unbeaten in four consecutive home games, winning three times along the way. Their overall home record isn’t flattering after a shaky and goalless start to their campaign but they’re back on track now. I have my doubts over them today because they’ve not won for two games but the ability is there so all they need to do is utilise it and what better opportunity than against a tired and/or under-strength side that averages conceding nearly two goals per away game?
I’ll leave the decision up to yourselves but bear in mind that Dnepr have lost seven out of their last eight trips here, drawing the other game, and lost here 5-2 last season. With the above in mind, I not only like the Dinamo win, but I fancy them to do it by two clear goals at a generous 7/5 offering from the bookies.
Verdict: Dinamo Minsk to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at 7/5.
Torpedo Zhodino vs Naftan Novopolotsk – away win at 11/10.
First of all – pay no attention to the Vysshaya Liga table here. Zhodino are not the worst side in the division and Naftan are not relegation-battlers. Naftan are a top four side and Zhodino are mid-table battlers that don’t often lose, despite their misleading record of late. However, it’s that record which leads me into this bet today because I would almost never back Naftan on the road – they’re the most stereotypical “home side” you’ll ever encounter.
So why back them today? Well, Zhodino had an important game three days ago against Fylkir Reykjavik of Iceland, beating them 3-0 in the first leg of their UEFA Europa League encounter. They’ll have had their morale boosted by that result but they should also be tired after such an energetic display. Their morale boost is the only positive I can cast upon them today, however, as lost players during the last transfer window have cost them quite a lot domestically this year, hence them already having lost five out of eight home games with only Vitebsk and bottom club Partizan Minsk having conceded more goals at home. Zhodino are battlers so they will fight for this game but they’ll also be aware that they’ve lost three out of their last four home games against Naftan and considering that Naftan don’t travel well, I think it’s fair to label today’s visitors as something of a “bogey side” for Torpedo Zhodino so I don’t fancy the hosts today with the above in mind.
Naftan Novopolotsk’s self-imposed ban on scoring goals has finally come to an end with four goals scored in two games after a shocking run of scoring just one goal in eight games. They started off their back-to-back burst of form with a draw at reigning champions BATE Borisov before following up that draw with an emphatic 3-1 victory over Dinamo Brest. Naftan now bring some good momentum into this game and they have the ability to make it count, as misleading as the table may be. I had hoped that the bookies would price this selection longer, especially with the fact that Naftan are yet to win an away game this season, but the little bastards are more shrewd than I’d given them credit for – well, for this game at least! Nonetheless, Naftan have a good level of momentum and are scoring goals at the moment so you have to fancy them today, even if their usually strong defence isn’t quite back to its best yet.
This remains a risky call whichever way you look at it but Naftan definitely have the capability to win this game. Zhodino are travelling to Iceland soon enough to face Fylkir for the return leg and with finances being their biggest problem at the moment, you have to feel that they’ll prioritise the UEFA Europa League, at least for the time being. Naftan want that elusive European place for next season and if they intend to launch a late challenge for it then they need to start now. The odds are about right for the away win here but I fancy it nonetheless as Naftan should really fulfill my wishes today.
Verdict: Naftan Novopolotsk to win at 11/10.
Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs FC Minsk – both sides to score at 9/10.
Speaking of Naftan Novopolotsk’s absence near the top of the table – here we have a game between the two sides that are fighting for their place!
I can’t really separate the two sides, to be honest. I’d probably favour Shakhtyor as the marginally better side but the head-to-head games between the two sides rarely reflect which is the superior of the two sides because they’re so closely-matched. However, one thing that both sides brings to each game they compete in at the moment is goals. Shakhtyor haven’t failed to find the net in seven successive games and they’ve conceded in three out of their last four. FC Minsk have scored for four consecutive games and have conceded in three of those games so we’re looking at over 2.5 goals here, realistically. FC Minsk prefer to attack away from home rather than defend, hence their impressive away form, and Shakhtyor are a capable side in front of goal too. Logic says that both sides will score here – I’m just amazed that the odds are 9/10 instead of 4/6 or even 4/7 – that would have been more apt. Therefore, rather than back the potential winner of this game, I’d much prefer to bet on both sides scoring in this game.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 9/10.
MyPa Anjalankoski vs Inter Turku – away win at 8/5.
This is a really bold call because Inter Turku are not the most prolific of sides and they’re not the best travellers. However, MyPa are such an uninteresting and goalless side that I cannot help but go against them today. They meandered their way to victory in Estonia a couple of days ago against fellow Baltic rivals Trans Narva, which looks a more impressive result than their display merited, in my opinion. The mere fact that MyPa are yet to win a home game in five attempts in the Veikkausliiga this season speaks volumes about their overall ability. They’re a boring side and are capable of keeping the ball, as well as occasionally showing they’re an able side defensively by keeping a good side out, but they remain fairly impotent in front of goal. Even their win at IFK Mariehamn prior to their trip to Narva was undeserved so I really cannot endorse anyone backing MyPa to beat anyone at the moment.
Visitors Inter Turku have had a nightmare campaign but are finally turning things around in menacing fashion. They’ve won three out of their last four Veikkausliiga games and drew the other so they’re certainly a side to be wary of at the moment. They’ve kept three clean sheets during that run and have notched up seven goals along the way, which is a massive tally for a Furuholm-less Inter Turku, and one that should be respected. Inter are a very good side when it comes to keeping the ball and keeping clean sheets – a lack of both earlier in the season led to their downfall. However, now they’re back with confidence and momentum, they’re a side that won’t be conceding many goals so I seriously doubt that they’ll concede at MyPa today. I’d normally doubt Inter’s ability to score but they’re doing so well at the moment that I have to give them a shot today. They’ve scored six in their last two away games and are more than capable of doing the same today as they’re by far the better of the two sides.
The table lies here – Inter are a top four side in the Veikkasliiga so don’t be fooled! Inter don’t normally travel well but have somehow won three out of five on the road this season, which again bodes ominously for MyPa today. I really fancy Inter to win this one at generous odds but please approach with caution – the Veikkausliiga has been a bit unpredictable of late and this game is by no means a dead cert!
Verdict: Inter Turku to win at 8/5.
MP Mikkeli vs PK-35 Helsinki – away win at 6/5.
Newly-promoted MP Mikkeli are finally started to show their true colours with five consecutive defeats. The former Kakkonen outfit aren’t good enough to be in the Ykkonen, in my opinion, and it’s beginning to look like they know it too. They’ve lost eight out of ten Ykkonen games thus far, losing three out of four at home. They’re not as bad defensively as this record portrays them to be; they simply don’t score enough goals. They’ve scored in three out of their last four games, to their credit, but again – they’re still losing the games. Any side that can concede two goals against one-goal KooTeePee Kotka or can concede three against an average Jippo Joensuu is a side that is in trouble and MP Mikkeli most certainly are a side in trouble. Their morale is low and I’m not surprised – they’re not bringing any confidence into this game at all so why would they be positive? It’ll take a mammoth effort from MP Mikkeli to pull themselves out of their current predicament and I just don’t think they’re got the mental or physical ability to do so, especially not today.
PK-35 Helsinki have had a slow start to their campaign but they’re still a good side, despite what the Ykkonen table may show you at present. They’ve won three out of their last four games and have kept clean sheets in all three of those wins, an omen that doesn’t bode well for their impotent hosts. PK-35’s biggest flaw is not scoring enough goals, hence the over-reliance upon Nigerian striker Daniel Nwoke. PK-35’s away record is much better than it looks if you examine it, incidentally. They’ve played four away games, winning twice and losing twice. Their two defeats came at Veikkausliiga-bound RoPS Rovaniemi and against a tough PoPa Pori, losing 4-3 in a close game. PK-35 have played two inferior sides away from home – HJK II and newly-promoted OPS Oulu – and have won both games without conceding a goal. It looks to me like PK-35 know their perimeters and always act within them, basically. They bring some good momentum into this game and they’re solid enough defensively to not concede in this game. Therefore, the big question is “Will PK-35 Helsinki score?” For odds of 7/5, I think it’s worth a chance on answering that question with “Yes” because they’re definitely good enough to do it and they are scoring goals at the moment, not to mention the fact that they’re a much more superior side, something that the Ykkonen table doesn’t show currently but should by the end of the season!
Verdict: PK-35 Helsinki to win at 6/5.
Keflavik vs FH Hafnarfjordur – home win at 7/5.
Although FH are the better of these two sides, I’ve been far more impressed with Keflavik this season. They’re polar opposites, these two sides, with Keflavik preferring to keep their wins low-scoring with plenty of clean sheets whereas FH are the more flambuoyant side with goals galore and defending non-existant. I’d normally favour the draw with that in mind but I have to side with Keflavik today. No side has a better home record in this division than Keflavik do when they’re hosting the mighty FH. FH won here in the Icelandic Cup a week ago but it’s their first win at Keflavik in five attempts, losing the other four. In fact, FH have only won twice in their last seven meetings with Keflavik at either ground – Keflavik are most certainly their bogey side. Neither side have played particularly well of late but an impressive 2-0 win at in-form Valur Reykjavik last match gives Keflavik a much-needed boost ahead of this rivalry match and FH somehow threw a one-goal lead away to succumb to an embarassing 3-1 defeat at home to Stjarnan Gardabaer. FH also had number one goalkeeper Gunnleifsson dismissed in the game, who now misses this match with Keflavik as a result, which is quite a big loss for the giants.
Overall, we have two sides that aren’t playing their best football but Keflavik are adapting better to that fact than FH are. Whilst FH aren’t quite peaking, I’m happy to take a chance and back Keflavik to win this one as they usually do, particularly whilst the odds are as generous as they currently are. Do approach with caution though – this is arguably the biggest match in Iceland in the Urvalsdeild season!
Verdict: Keflavik to win at 7/5.
Kongsvinger vs Brann Bergen – home win at 7/4.
Konsgvinger are some distance from a good side but these odds are laughable and have to be worth a shot. Brann have arguably their worst team for years with only Huseklepp carrying them away from the relegation zone on occasion. Brann simply aren’t the big club that they used to be anymore and their away form shows that perfectly with five defeats in six away games in the Eliteserien. They average conceding over two goals per away game and scored just three on the road all season, which is absolutely terrible, frankly! Brann have already lost at newly-promoted Honefoss so why not at newly-promoted Kongsvinger? As I said earlier – Kongsvinger aren’t a good side; far from it. However, they have a tenacity and determination that Brann lack on every level so they do counter Brann’s quality advantage, limited though it be.
I’d normally not touch this game because anything could happen but the price that the bookies have put on Kongsvinger is hilariously good value! I cannot see Brann Bergen winning this game, to be blunt – I can’t see how it can occur, barring a miraculously good display that I genuinely don’t feel that they’re capable of making anymore. Kongsvinger’s determination will hopefully earn them a goal as long as Niang stops missing chances and if they get that goal, then I think the home win today could be very good value indeed.
Verdict: Kongsvinger to win at 7/4.
Zenit St. Petersburg vs Anzhi Makhachkala – under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
This one just speaks for itself! The odds on the under 2.5 goals selection should be shorter here. Zenit are a class above most of the Premier League this year but it’s because they’re untouchable in defence. Despite being top of the league, only four sides have scored less home goals than Zenit with five goals scored in four games. Zenit love their narrow wins and it does suit their arrogant style, to be fair. Nonetheless, they’re a quality side and rarely lose possession so I do enjoy backing Zenit games to go under 2.5 goals and this one is no exception. Both sides are rusty following the mid-season break and although Anzhi lurk near the foot of the table, they don’t concede many on the road – an average of 1.5 goals per away game on average, in fact. I expect Zenit to win the game but in typical narrow fashion so under 2.5 goals looks a bargain today as it should be shorter than 3/4.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Tavriya Simferopol – under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
It’s not often I’ll cover Super Cup games but I do feel that there’s value here. Obviously, Shakhtar are the better of these two sides as we all know but the thing is with Shakhtar is that they play such a “Brazilian” style of football nowadays that the average Ukrainian pitch doesn’t suit their football. The only one that does is their own Donbass Arena. This game, however, is being played in Zaporizhya, so I don’t see Shakhtar running wild here. Shakhtar only scored more than two goals in two away games in all of their Premier League games last season, thus backing up my point. I’m obviously banking on Tavriya not scoring, which is quite likely because they don’t enjoy leaving their own half very much. Shakhtar’s attack looked a lot more rusty and predictable last season too, sort of like a weaker Barcelona side, so I think we’ll see a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline here. Either way, taking under 2.5 goals here looks a bit of a good bet today!
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Dinamo Minsk, Liga de Quito, FC Honka Espoo, KR Reykjavik, Vetra Vilnius, Bodo Glimt, Zenit St.Petersburg.
Recommended bets:
Stjarnan Gardabaer, KR Reykjavik, and Keflavik at 6/1.
Zenit St.Petersburg, FC Honka Espoo, Dinamo Minsk, and both sides to score in Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs FC Minsk at 5/1.
Zenit St. Petersburg vs Anzhi Makhachkala and Shakhtar Donetsk vs Tavriya Simferopol – both games going under 2.5 goals at 3/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Baltic League:
Suduva Marijampole vs FK Ventspils (7) 2-1
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Dinamo Minsk vs Dnepr Mogilev (8) -1.75 handicap
Dinamo Brest vs Partizan Minsk (7) 2-1
Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs FC Minsk (6) 1-1
Torpedo Zhodino vs Naftan Novopolotsk (5) 0-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Liga de Quito vs Macara Ambato (8) 2-0
Deportivo Cuenca vs El Nacional Quito (6) 1-1
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Honka Espoo vs Haka Valkeakoski (8) 2-0
Jaro Pietarsaari vs KuPS Kuopio (6) 1-1
TPS Turku vs HJK Helsinki (7) 1-1
MyPa Anjalankoski vs Inter Turku (5) 0-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
MP Mikkeli vs PK-35 Helsinki (7)
Viikingit Helsinki vs KooTeePee Kotka (8)
PS Kemi Kings vs OPS Oulu (7)
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
Stjarnan Gardabaer vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar (8) over 2.5 goals
Keflavik vs FH Hafnarfjordur (6) 2-1
KR Reykjavik vs UMF Grindavik (8) 2-0
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Vetra Vilnius vs Atletas (9) -1.75 handicap
Klaipeda vs Zalgiris Vilnius (5) 0-1
Mazeikiai vs Kruoja Pakruojis (6) 1-1
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Viking Stavanger vs Odd Grenland Skien (6) 2-1
Tromso vs Aalesund (7) 1-0
Honefoss vs Stromsgodset (6) 0-0
Kongsvinger vs Brann Bergen (5) 2-1
Haugesund vs Start Kristiansand (5) 2-1
Lillestrom vs Valerenga Oslo (6) 1-1
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Fredrikstad vs Ranheim (7)
Lyn Oslo vs Tromsdalen (7)
Bodo Glimt vs Alta (8) at least one red card in this game
Strommen vs Bryne (5)
Lov-Ham Bergen vs Follo (6) under 2.5 goals
Mjondalen vs Sandnes Ulf (6)
Nybergsund vs Sarpsborg 08 (4)
Moss vs Sogndal (5)
Russian Premier League:
Zenit St. Petersburg vs Anzhi Makhachkala (8) under 2.5 goals
Singaporean S-League:
Geylang United vs Tampines Rovers (6) 1-2
Swedish Superettan:
Ljungskile vs Degerfors (6)
Falkenberg vs Brage (4)
Angelholm vs Assyriska Sodertalje (3)
Syrianska Sodertalje vs Vasby United (7)
Ukrainian Super Cup:
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Tavriya Simferopol (7) under 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!