Stjarnan Gardabaer vs Keflavik
FreeWhat the fuck possessed FIFA to put the World Cup in a developing country that is not ready to host a market, let alone a major tournament? This country has a history of violence at football games and isn’t ready for this tournament, something massively visible from the escapade yesterday in the game between Nigeria and North Korea which resulted in approximately eight fans and one policeman being taken to hospital with injuries following a stampede of people. The whole concept of a World Cup in this country is nothing short of farcical at the present time and FIFA’s “equal opportunity” bullshit may just get its first puncture if they’re not careful. It’s not about being biased towards countries with big stadiums etc. it’s about being able to host a major tournament securely and having the capacity to do so. South Africa have neither of these requirements so why is it being held there?! It just boggles the mind to attempt to comprehend the stupidity that went into this decision. I fervently hope that I’m wrong and that everything goes without a problem but this stampede yesterday happened at a game that South Africa didn’t feature in – what will happen when they are playing? Or even worse, what will happen when they inevitably go out? Club football in this country is violent enough, let alone international football so who knows what will happen?
Anyway, rant over. Today’s featured game is the Urvalsdeild game between Stjarnan Gardabaer and Keflavik. Stjarnan are a good home side but Keflavik are flying high and currently top the table as a result so we should see a good match between these two sides tonight.
Stjarnan fucked us all over last match by somehow gifting Haukar Hafnarfjordur their second equalising goal of the game in the dying seconds. However, that’s Stjarnan through and through – potent in front of goal but horrific defensively. Generally speaking, Stjarnan are the best “overs” side in the Urvalsdeild due to ability and lack of ability in different areas of the field. They’re the joint top goalscorers in the Urvasldeild at home with eight goals scored in three games, a record matched only by Valur Reykjavik although Valur Reykjavik have played more home games than Stjarnan. That immediately urges caution when betting against Stjarnan in Gardabaer. However, the fact that Stjarnan have won just once in their three home games despite the above record tells you that they’re lacking in efficiency, which is the factor that I’m more interested in today. Admittedly, Stjarnan are yet to lose a home game this season but they’re facing a visit from a side at the top of their game, a side that are better than they are, so Stjarnan have to be concerned. What do they do? Do they attack and play to their strengths or do they try and fend Keflavik off because the visitors don’t score many? Either way they face an rock-solid defence or are gifting chances to an efficient side so things don’t look too rosy for Stjarnan Gardabaer ahead of tonight’s game.
Visitors Keflavik are playing really well this season. When they’re on their game, they’re virtually untouchable. Four wins and one draw from their first five games despite having just scored six goals is the hallmark of a very well-organised side. Keflavik simply don’t concede goals due to their rock-solid formation and sides find it impossible to score against them, generally. Keflavik tend to use that advantage of theirs against a potent Stjarnan side quite often, having conceded just once against Stjarnan in their last two games against them, so Keflavik can definitely maintain their solid style of football against their tricky opponents. Keflavik have already won two out of three on the road this season and are the only Urvalsdeild side yet to concede an away goal so Stjarnan will be fearing their trip somewhat, particularly as they failed to register a goal at home to Keflavik last year too.
I rate Keflavik massively in this kind of form because they’re untouchable, enough so for me to back them away from home, which is generally a rarity in itself. I was tempted to take a slice of a very generous 7/5 on under 2.5 goals but was swayed because we all know Stjarnan can poach goals on their day. However, I’ll stick with the away win at generous odds of 6/5 because I firmly believe Keflavik will stroll past an inept Stjarnan defence and be able to lock them out too. I see a 0-1 or 1-2 scoreline here but there should be value in the away win tonight.
Verdict: Keflavik to win at 6/5.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Haukar Hafnarfjordur vs Breidablik Kopavogur – away win at evens.
Two home games, two defeats, two goals conceded per home game, no goals scored. It doesn’t read well, does it? It’s ironcially a fairly accurate representation of Haukar’s season ahead, in my opinion, with them forming a virtually unbreakable relegation-pact duo with UMF Grindavik. Haukar simply aren’t good enough to be in the Urvalsdeild and although their away form is fairly decent, they’re generally a poor side that concedes too many goals so don’t get the wrong idea about this side – they really are quite hopeless! It’s hard to envision Haukar taking anything from this game given that they can’t score and that they concede too many goals so barring a miracle on their part, they really should end up drawing this game at the very most.
Visitors Breidablik are starting to flex their muscles somewhat menacingly after an eventless start to their season. They’re unbeaten in four consecutive games and have won two of those as they attempt to launch a mini Keflavik-themed assault on the Urvalsdeild by beating opponents with narrow margins thanks to defensive prowess. Breidablik have won once and drawn once on the road in their two away games this season and both were respectable results when you consider that they won at giants Valur Reykjavik and drew at in-form IBV Vestmannaeyjar so they’re certainly worth being wary of. Breidablik unfortunately played 120 minutes against FH Hafnarfjordur mid-week in the Icelandic Cup, eventually losing on penalties so the visitors tonight may be a little weary and perhaps a tad demoralised. Nonetheless, they’re too good a side to concede a goal in this game, in my opinion, but they’re good enough to score against a mediocre Haukar defence so ultimately I expect them to win the game by their usual narrow margin, particularly as they’ve scored at least once for five consecutive games.
With the above in mind, you have to favour the away win tonight. Do approach with caution in case weariness does affect Breidablik but they should be too good for their hosts so the away win remains good value whilst at evens or above.
Verdict: Breidablik Kopavogur to win at evens.
Start Kristiansand vs Viking Stavanger – home win at 5/4.
Although these two sides are quite well-matched, circumstances dictate that Start have a massive advantage for this game; goals. Why? Well, Start score them in Kristiansand and Viking don’t score away from Stavanger – seems fairly straightforward to me! I actually rate Viking as being marginally better than the hosts tonight but I can’t see them scoring enough goals to get a result here. I mean, Start have notched up sixteen goals in seven home games – an average of over two goals per home game – and they’ve won four of those games, losing just once, so they’re certainly a strong home side. They’re on the verge of exiting their bad spell of form and a win tonight will do them the power of good. Even during Start’s last home game (which they lost), they still managed to score two goals because that’s simply their game; to score goals. That immediately gives them a chance against anyone, to be blunt.
Only Rosenborg BK have conceded less on the road than Viking have so I’m wary with Start tonight. However, there’s a good reason that they’ve won just once in six away games this season and it’s because they’ve only scored four goals, which is a record that only newly-promoted Honefoss and out-of-form Brann Bergen can “better” so it’s hard to consider them a threat tonight. I do rate Viking but they’re not doing enough away from home – even Sandefjord claimed a point against them! – so I fear for their survival in this game. Start’s defence isn’t great by any stretch of the imagination but Viking’s ineptitude in front of goal is rampant this season so you have to favour the hosts tonight.
Do approach with caution here because Start are bad enough to concede against Viking – I’m just banking on Start using their potency to outscore their visitors. There’s very little quality difference between the two sides and there’s a chance of a draw but odds of 5/4 on the home win are too good to turn down, in my eyes, so I’ll be taking a Start win tonight.
Verdict: Start Kristiansand to win at 5/4.
Accumulator fodder:
Brazil, Gombak United.
Recommended bets:
I don’t like any combinations today, unfortunately!
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
MyPa Anjalankoski vs KuPS Kuopio (5) under 2.5 goals, draw no bet
VPS Vaasa vs Haka Valkeakoski (6) 0-0
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
Stjarnan Gardabaer vs Keflavik (6) 1-2
Fylkir Reykjavik vs FH Hafnarfjodur (6) 1-1
Haukar Hafnarfjordur vs Breidablik Kopavogur (7) 0-2
KR Reykjavik vs Valur Reykjavik (6) over 2.5 goals
International Friendly:
Tanzania vs Brazil (10) -1.75 handicap
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Start Kristiansand vs Viking Stavanger (7) over 2.5 goals
Singaporean S-League:
Gombak United vs Albirex Niigata (8) under 2.5 goals
Balestier Khalsa vs Young Lions (6) 0-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!