Stromsgodset vs Molde FK
FreeToday’s featured game is the Eliteserien encounter between feisty Stromsgodset and under-achieving Molde FK. Stromsgodset have had an outstanding campaign thus far and will look to continue that run today against a very out-of-form Molde side.
Four wins from their last five games says that Stromsgodset are still red-hot despite the sale of promising striker Marcus Pedersen to Vitesse Arnhem and that in itself impresses me immensely. He was their leading goalscorer by some distance but now the other strikers like Berget and Keita are beginning to step up to the plate, let alone midfielders Nordkvelle and Storflor. Stromsgodset’s youngsters always seem to do well no matter what adversity faces them and for that, they eternally have my respect. The sale of Pedersen has generated some funds for Stromsgodset but they’ve elected to sign a striker on loan to replace him – Hansa Rostock’s Icelandic giant striker Gardar Johannsson, who goes straight into the side for this game. Having already plyed his trade in the Eliteserien previously, the adjustment period of the experienced striker should be minimal so I think this is a shrewd short-term move for Stromsgodset. They’ve also loaned an interesting player named Mohammed Abu, who is a robust holding midfielder from Manchester City, who in turn have just signed him themselves. At eighteen years old, it’s hard to expect him to adjust swiftly but African players tend to do well in this league because of their pace (i.e. Annan, both Dioufs) so it’s not entirely out of the question. If any club can get the best out of their youngsters in the Eliteserien then it’s Stromsgodset so I feel Sporting Director Jostein Flo has made a couple of astute acquisitions for his arising side. The trip to Drammen is never an easy one because of Stromsgodset’s tenacious style and relentless attacking at the Marienlyst and although that works against them sometimes due to catastrophic defending, they still score a lot of goals as a result and are thus a dangerous side. They’ve won eight out of eleven so far in Drammen this season and with an average of nearly two goals scored per home game, it’s easy to see why that is. Conceding goals doesn’t faze Stromsgodset; it’s almost like they expect to concede goals and that their philosophy to combat that is to outscore their opponents and let’s face it – it works!
Visitors Molde aren’t worthy of the poor league placing that they’re currently in quality-wise – they’re actually a pretty damn good side on their day. However, a combination of injuries, European committments, and misfortune has left Molde floundering near the relegation zone and they’ve never fully recovered. Only themselves and Sandefjord have failed to win an away game in the Eliteserien this season and despite having a good record in Drammen, I don’t fancy their chances of changing that record today. The return of Thioune to their squad has naturally improved their displays although the return of Diouf hasn’t yet had the desired impact with Fall scoring most of the goals. Molde’s playmaking talisman Magne Hoseth is in good form and let’s face it – he’s had to be. Without him, they’d be in a bigger mess than they are now so he’ll be instrumental to their performance today. However, Molde have now got the mindset of a side that is used to losing games despite playing well and it’s really starting to damage them. They’ve not won an Eliteserien game in ten consecutive attempts now as they leak goals far too easily and don’t score consistently enough to challenge their defensive inability. They’ve shipped nine goals in their past five games and although their displays on the road are starting to be more dangerous, they’re still losing too many games because they’re conceding too many goals and that’s no record to take to face a potent Stromsgodset side so I fear for giants Molde today.
Both of Stromsgodset’s new signings go straight into their squad and Alexander Aas also returns from injury, which is a bonus. Stromsgodset are really flying at the moment and they never doubt their own ability to score goals at home, which is largely what makes them so hard to beat. The only way Molde are going to beat Stromsgodset here is to score a lot of goals and although I don’t doubt that Stromsgodset’s defence is capable of conceding that many goals, I just don’t see Molde suddenly scoring a lot of away goals from nowhere but I do see their vulnerable defence being torn apart tonight. I expect plenty of goals here, to be blunt, but the home win at 11/10 really appeals to me today.
Verdict: Stromsgodset to win at 11/10.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Chernomorets Burgas vs Sliven – under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Chernomorets Burgas currently lead the A PFG table and they should be there or thereabouts at the end of the season too as they boast one of their best sides in years. However, their problem is and always has been scoring goals. Consider that they’re top of the table after five games and that only five out of the remaining fifteen A PFG sides have scored less than they have this season and you’ll see what I mean. Defensively, they’re very strong so I don’t see them conceding against the likes of Sliven today. Will they get the necessary goals to win the game though? Well, they’ve won four out of five thus far, one of which was against giants Levski Sofia, so momentum does give them a massive boost and I therefore expect them to win the game. However, Sliven are no mugs and although they don’t score many themselves, they’re rarely on the end of a battering. The last three meetings between these two sides have gone under 2.5 goals and although I expect Chernomorets to ultimately win the game, I cannot see the scoreline going over 2.5 goals so this should be a nailed under 2.5 goals today.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Fram Reykjavik vs Keflavik – home win at 11/10.
It’s been a while since I found an Urvalsdeild game that I believed to have any value as it’s been a strange couple of months in Iceland. However, I think we’ve finally got one on our hands with in-form Fram Reykjavik hosting fallen giants Keflavik. Both have endured torrid campaigns but back-to-back wins for Fram at least gives them some momentum tonight. Their first win was a fairly expected 3-1 win against relegation-threatened Selfoss and the second win was a very impressive 3-2 win at Stjarnan Gardabaer on their difficult artificial turf so that impressed me far more, particularly as they came from 2-1 down to do so. Fram’s problem isn’t goalscoring, fortuitously, it’s keeping other sides out as their defence hasn’t kept a clean sheet since the dawn of time in nine consecutive games. In fact, they’ve only kept a clean sheet in three out of their eighteen games so far this season so it’s a fairly safe bet that they’ll concede tonight – or so you’d think. The reason I’m placing my faith in this defensively-inept Fram side is because they’re hosting a Keflavik side that are not scoring goals. Not only that, but they rarely score goals when they’re in-form and they’re currently very much out-of-form following three defeats in four games. To their credit, they have scored goals during those games but only against mediocre opponents like Selfoss and in their home game against defensively-inept Stjarnan. Bluntly, they’re not impressing me at all despite being one of the better sides in the division. Keflavik are a tough side to play against but if you don’t score goals then you don’t win games and although Keflavik are unquestionably capable of scoring against a shoddy Fram defence, I doubt very much that Keflavik’s out-of-form defence can hold Fram’s goalscoring potential back with any kind of competence, particularly as Fram currently average scoring nearly two goals per home game so I expect a home win today at decent odds.
Verdict: Fram Reykjavik to win at 11/10.
FC Schaffhausen vs Servette – away win at 9/10.
Things aren’t looking too good for Schaffhausen currently. They’ve lost four out of their last five games and have drawn the other so morale is ebbing low. Their counter-attacking abilities tend to work better on the road than they do at home for obvious reasons but they’re proving to be very predictable so sides are finding it easier to play against them. Schaffhausen haven’t scored for two consecutive home games despite one of those games being against newly-promoted Chiasso. As a result, Schaffhausen have lost both games so goalscoring is really proving to be a problem for them. So why are they struggling? The sale of midfielder Staubli over the summer understandably impacted them but it shouldn’t to this degree. Morale is low and it doesn’t help Schaffhausen to know that they’re facing a Servette side that they’ve never beaten at home so things couldn’t look much worse for the hosts today, particularly as defender Berisha is still missing through injury.
Servette are going through the motions this season just as I expected them to. Barring their one blip against Winterthur, Servette have been immense with five wins in six games, beating some good sides along the way and all of them in convincing fashion. They’re averaging scoring three goals per game currently as the giants seek to reclaim what they believe is their rightful Super League place and I wouldn’t bet against them given their current form although Lugano and Lausanne Sports will certainly make them work hard to get it. Servette not only attack well but defend well too with only league leaders Lugano having conceded less than they have so far this season so Servette are finally looking the real deal. Although Servette are missing emerging defender Mendes through injury, they shouldn’t be excessively troubled at the back today and I fancy them to cause more problems than they’re caused.
With Servette striker Eudis in great form and linking up well with fellow Brazilian attacking midfielder Azevedo, it’s hard to see the hosts having enough to stop the visitors today so I expect an away win at decent odds.
Verdict: Servette to win at 9/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Chernomorets Burgas, Liga de Quito, Bohemians, IFK Goteborg, Trabzonspor.
Recommended bets:
Fram Reykjavik and Chernomorets Burgas at 2/1.
Bohemians, Trabzonspor, and Servette at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Austrian Liga 1:
Hartberg vs SCR Altach (6)
Bulgarian A PFG:
Chernomorets Burgas vs Sliven (8) under 2.5 goals
Cypriot Division 1:
Ermis vs Olympiakos Nicosia (6) 1-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Sigma Olomouc vs Mlada Boleslav (6) over 2.5 goals
Danish Superligaen:
Midtylland vs Randers (6) 2-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Liga de Quito vs Universidad Catolica (8) 2-0
English Premier League:
Stoke City vs Aston Villa (6) 1-1
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
NSI Runavik vs IF Fuglafjordur (6) 1-0
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Inter Turku vs JJK Jyvaskyla (6) 2-1
FC Honka Espoo vs AC Oulu (7) over 2.5 goals
French Ligue 2:
Evian Thonon Gaillard vs AC Ajaccio (6)
German Bundesliga 2:
Energie Cottbus vs Karlsruher SC (5)
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
Fram Reykjavik vs Keflavik (6) 2-1
Irish Premier League:
Bohemians vs Drogheda United (8) 2-0
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers (6) 0-1
Galway United vs Sligo Rovers (4) 1-1
Sporting Fingal vs Bray Wanderers (6) 1-0
UCD vs St.Patrick’s Athletic (6) 1-2
Italian Serie B:
Crotone vs Modena (6) under 2.5 goals
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Telstar vs Dordrecht ’90 (5)
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Stromsgodset vs Molde FK (6) over 2.5 goals
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Vitoria Setubal vs Beira-Mar (6) 1-0
Romanian Liga:
Vaslui vs Otelul Galati (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Singaporean S-League:
Beijing Guoan vs Gombak United (5) 1-2
Spanish Primera Liga:
Almeria vs Real Sociedad (6) 1-0
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Kalmar vs Brommapojkarna (7) 2-0
IFK Goteborg vs GAIS Goteborg (8) 2-1
Swedish Superettan:
Vasby United vs Hammarby (6)
Degerfors vs Brage (4)
Swiss Challenge League:
FC Schaffhausen vs Servette (7)
Turkish Super Lig:
Kasimpasa vs Karabukspor (4) 0-0
Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor (8) 2-0
Genclerbirligi vs Istanbul BB (6) 1-1
Galatasaray vs Gaziantepspor (7) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!