Anderlecht vs Club Brugge
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Belgian Eerste Klasse rivlary game between Anderlecht and Club Brugge in Brussels. This games are usually fiery so expect red cards and approach with caution!
Today, I’m going with Anderlecht, however. I’ve been very impressed with their signings since prodigy Lukaku moved on as they swooped to sign experienced players in Jovanovic and Mbokani to help Anderlecht score goals, which they have duly done. Mbokani in particular has impressed me and whilst he is on the field, I rate Anderlecht’s chances of winning this game highly, although it must be said that he’s not played as much as he could/should have this season.
It’s a shame that we’ve not seen more of ex-Club Brugge midfielder Vargas as if he was playing as well as he did last season in the current campaign then Anderlecht would be streets ahead of any other side, in my view. Anderlecht have a whole host of attacking options with De Sutter, Suarez, and Canesin, not to mention the heartbeat of the team – Biglia – who faces a late fitness test ahead of this game. Anderlecht quite simply have the greatest attack in Belgium, in my opinion, and even their occasionally suspect defending hasn’t put me off here.
Since being appointed as Club Brugge’s new boss, Daum has done very well with a side that attracts turmoil. They usually play a fiery brand of flambuoyant, attacking football to compensate for their lack of strikers but influx of midfielders. Daum isn’t doing that, though – he’s making them grind out low-scoring wins whilst putting the emphasis on clean sheets, which is…interesting, to say the least. I’m not sure how long that will last with Club Brugge but it’ll be interesting to find out. Club Brugge wouldn’t have been able to play this way last season but the signing of ex-NEC Nijmegen striker Bjorn Vleminckx has allowed them to do so this season as he is what I would call a competent striker at this level, something which Club Brugge generally don’t possess. Subsequently, Club Brugge are still a dangerous side although they impale themselves on their own sword far too often, in my view.
Daum will look to shut Anderlecht out here and although that’s bold, noble etc. I do think it’s foolish. When playing Anderlecht at the Vanden Stock, you have to appreciate that your side will concede at some point, barring a miracle. Therefore, I believe Club Brugge should attack Anderlecht, do what they do best, and see if they can cause an upset. If they sit back and defend in this game then they’ll lose it comfortably because they’re not as good at defending as their record portrays and Anderlecht are more than capable of breaking down any side in Belgium.
For me, there’s value on Anderlecht winning this one with the above in mind. I don’t believe Daum has made Club Brugge good enough – yet – to get a result here and despite the relative unpredictability of such a big game, I fancy Anderlecht a lot at 4/5.
Verdict: Anderlecht to win at 4/5.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, please find my value tips listed below in no particular order:
CD Nacional de Madeira vs Uniao de Leiria – home win at 10/11.
Although it’s not been a great season for CD Nacional de Madeira thus far, they have the opportunity to take three points here and I don’t think that they’ll pass it up. The trip to Madeira is always a dangerous one and I think that a single goal should be enough for Nacional to win this one today. They’ve done well since returning from the winter break, putting in a spirited display in their 1-2 defeat against Sporting Braga in the Portuguese League Cup before thrashing Gil Vicente 3-0 in the Liga Sages and claiming a 2-2 draw at Sporting Clube de Lisboa in the Taca de Portugal so confidence is growing in the Nacional camp. They’ve loaned big Senegalese striker Keita for the rest of the season to give their attack an additional dimension and they’ve also brought Moreno back to Portugal after his stint with Leicester City to bolster their midfield. Nacional are a better side than their league placing suggests and I’m hopeful that those two signings will lead them back to where they should be in the table. They’ve got the fans and the players to win this one and I think they will.
It helps that Leiria are just a shocking side, really. They’ve got no fans, they’ve got huge financial problems, and they’re rapidly losing good players as a result. They’ve already lost six out of seven on the road this season whilst averaging conceding nearly two goals per away game so it’s hard to take little Leiria seriously today. They were fortunate enough to stay in the division a couple of years ago with the scandal in Portugal but I am not so sure that they’ll be as fortunate this season. Things look really bleak for Leiria right now and having lost three out of their last four visits to Madeira, I don’t think today’s visitors will be looking forward to this trip at all.
For me, the home win has value at 10/11 as Nacional should hold it if if they take the lead and they’re playing well enough and confidently enough to do the business here.
Verdict: CD Nacional de Madeira to win at 10/11.
Sporting Braga vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa – away win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Braga are never an easy side to beat at the AXA Stadion, hence their record of five wins and one draw from six home games in the Liga Sagres this season. However, if any side can achieve the impossible then it’s Sporting Lisbon, who Braga just don’t enjoy playing against. Braga seem to enjoy more success when it comes to upsetting Porto and Benfica respectively but with Sporting, they never really read the script, winning three out of their last five visits to Braga.
I see something new in Sporting that I’ve not seen in previous seasons and that’s fluidity. They keep the ball well, they attack with purpose, and they finally score goals, which is why they’ve improved their league placing so drastically this season. The work is not complete yet as there’s still a lot to do for the green-and-white half of Lisbon but they’re well on their way to being a good side again. Dutch hitman van Wolfswinkel has been a great signing for them, bagging seven goals in thirteen games, and with a midfield behind him containing the likes of Capel, Fernandez, and Elias, I really like the look of this Sporting side.
Of course, Braga are capable of scoring against anyone in Portugal when it suits them. They’ve got some very good players but most importantly of all they play with great spirit, belief, and cohesion. For me, that’s the foundation of any good side and Sporting still have some work to do to catch Braga in this aspect. However, for the first time in a few years, I think Braga enter this game as the weaker side and that makes this a much more interesting spectacle, in my view. Sporting have more firepower than Braga although whether their samba defence can keep Braga out is another matter entirely.
However, Sporting have taken great strides this season and I’d be surprised to see them lose this game today, despite the difficulty of away games in Braga. I think that Sporting have too much in front of goal to lose this one and given that Braga are more efficient than they are flambuoyant, I just feel that Sporting could upset them by scoring a couple of goals here so my call is risky away win with a useful draw no bet cover at 11/10.
Verdict: Sporting Clube de Lisboa to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Osasuna vs Racing Santander – lay Osasuna at evens.
Osasuna have started their campaign well against the odds. They suffer from a real lack of quality right now although Raul Garcia’s return to Pamplona has done them the power of good, which has subsequently led to them being placed fifth in the table. How they’re still there is beyond me as this side doesn’t have any depth nor ability in front of goal but they do have spirit and tenacity and that counts for quite a lot in a generally laid-back Primera Liga.
I like Osasuna at home because they’re generally underestimated but today I feel like they’re over-estimated. They really don’t merit such odds with such a weak attack and I think that’s going to hurt them at some point, quite possibly today. There’s no way Osasuna will finish where they are in the table because they’re simply not good enough to do it. They’ll work hard for the remainder of the season and they’ll avoid the drop if they don’t lose their home games but I’m not sure we’ll see them winning many games either. You see, Osasuna are very hard to beat but they’re not a side that generally threatens in the final third. They can do, of course, and you’d have to fancy them to put on a show in front of their home fans but the fact remains that they’re simply not very good at scoring goals.
Can Racing profit from that? Well, I suppose they’ll have to if they want to avoid relegation this season. They’re arguably the weakest side in the Primera Liga but that doesn’t mean that they’re without hope. Racing actually have a funny habit of being hard to beat away from home, a record which stretches back a few seasons now and is even present this season. I mean, how many sides do you really see that are near the bottom of the table but have only lost a handful of games? They’ve lost less games than Sevilla at home and less than Malaga away so perhaps we shouldn’t be so quick to dismiss Racing here. Their problem is and always has been goalscoring in that they’re crap at it nowadays. Only boss Marcelino can inspire them to do otherwise but he’s not here, hence their apparent demise. Seriously, though – who have Racing lost against away from home this season? Atletico Madrid, Valencia CF, Barcelona, and in-form Real Mallorca. For me, that’s not a bad record at all when you consider that they’ve claimed a 2-2 draw with Sevilla CF and a 1-1 draw with Athletic Club de Bilbao along the way, both of which are considerably better than Racing. Racing are simply a well-organised defensive unit and it takes a good attack to break them down, which Osasuna don’t have, so I’m sure you can see where I am coming from here.
This is obviously not a banker but it really interests me nonetheless. Osasuna aren’t good enough to merit the odds that they’ve been given – it looks a big trap to me. It may be one to “arb” in-play if it stays 0-0 so you can guarantee yourselves profit either but I do not anticipate an easy game for Osasuna here. They much prefer it when sides attack them, which is something that Racing generally don’t do. Osasuna have only beaten Racing twice in their last seventeen attempts too – just food for thought!
Verdict: Lay Osasuna at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Juventus, Barcelona, Sivasspor.
Recommended bets:
Sivasspor, Barcelona, and Anderlecht at around 8/5.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
International Friendlies:
Oman vs Congo (5) 1-1
Angola vs Sierra Leone (5) 2-1
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Heart vs Perth Glory (7) over 2.5 goals
Gold Coast United vs Wellington Phoenix (7) 2-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Anderlecht vs Club Brugge (7) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Zulte-Waregem vs Racing Genk (6) 1-2
Cypriot Division 1:
Aris Limassol vs Alki Larnaca (6) 2-1
AEK Larnaca vs Apollon Limassol (7) 2-0
Ermis vs Nea Salamis (7) 1-2
English Premier League:
Newcastle United vs Queens Park Rangers (5) 0-0
Swansea City vs Arsenal (5) 1-1
French Ligue 1:
Olympique de Marseille vs LOSC Lille (6) 1-0
Greek Super League:
Atromitos vs Aris Salonika (6) 1-0
Kerkyra vs Asteras Tripolis (5) 1-0
PAOK Salonika vs Ergotelis (7) 2-0
Panionios vs Panaitolikos (4) 1-1
PAS Giannina vs Panathinaikos (7) 1-2
Italian Serie A:
Lazio vs Atalanta Bergamo (6) 1-0
Cesena vs Novara (4) 1-1
Chievo Verona vs Palermo (5) 1-0
Fiorentina vs Lecce (7) 2-1
Genoa vs Udinese (5) 1-1
Juventus vs Cagliari (8) 2-0
Parma vs Siena (5) 1-0
AC Milan vs Internazionale (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Mexican Primera Division:
Pumas UNAM vs Morelia (7) 2-1
America vs Toluca (7) 1-0
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
CD Nacional de Madeira vs Uniao de Leiria (6) 1-0
Olhanense vs Beira-Mar (6) 0-0
Academica de Coimbra vs Vitoria Guimaraes (6) 2-1
Sporting Braga vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (6) 1-2
Spanish Primera Liga:
Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal CF (5) 1-1
Osasuna vs Racing Santander (6) 0-0
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Levante (7) 2-1
Sporting Gijon vs Malaga (5) 2-1
Barcelona vs Real Betis Balompie (9) -1.5 handicap
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Huesca vs Deportivo La Coruna (6)
Deportivo Xerez vs Hercules Alicante (4) both sides to score
Turkish Super Lig:
Orduspor vs Istanbul BB (6) 2-1
Sivasspor vs Ankaragucu (8) 2-0
Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor (3) 1-1
Mersin Idmanyurdu vs Antalyaspor (5) 1-1
Besiktas JK vs Bursaspor (7) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!