Genoa vs Palermo
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Serie A encounter between Genoa and Palermo in Genova. The hosts have had a mixed season but appear to finally settling into some kind of rhythm whereas Palermo have ironically shifted from being consistently good to being consistently bad so we have the recipe for an interesting game here.
Genoa have endured many transitions over the past couple of years from one of the most flambuoyant and free-scoring sides in Serie A to the defensive moguls that didn’t concede against anyone. At the current time, they’re some way in between both as their role of being a feeder club continues to shift the club’s targets and ability. However, Ballardini has gifted this Genoa side the ability to score goals again and they’ve now bagged eight times in their past four games despite only winning two of them. At home, Genoa are unbeaten in their last three games, winning twice and drawing once, even beating AS Roma (in their infamous 4-3 win that saw the end to Ranieri’s reign at Roma) along the way. The potential is there for Argentinian duo Palacio and Boselli to link up really well at Genoa and we’ve already seen one example of that so we may well see more of it in future. Genoa have lost back-to-back games ahead of this match but both were away from home, where Genoa are most susceptible. In Genova, however, the hosts are generally strong and should prove to be again today.
Visitors Palermo, similarly, are also poor away from home although on a far more notorious scale. Only four Serie A sides have lost more away games than Palermo have this season and three of those are in the relegation zone! Palermo can be a potent away side but their defence is so shaky away from their Sicily-stronghold that it’s generally expected that Palermo will concede away from home. Unfortunately for the visitors today, that seems extremely likely today as they’ve been atrocious in defence lately. Palermo have lost four consecutive games ahead of this one and they’ve failed to score in their last three whilst conceding fourteen goals along the way, which is absolutely terrible! I’m not sure what’s more frightening about that statistic – the fact that a 0-7 result against Udinese was one of those games or the fact that the game against Udinese only accounted for half of the goals that they’ve conceded during that run! They’ve really missed defenive lynchpin Goian of late and the Romanian is still absent today, which has played a big part in me going against Palermo today. Palermo are now relying excessively on Pastore in attack with Bacinovic not playing particularly well and it all basically looks to be going badly wrong for Palermo at the moment.
Overall, Genoa appear to be enthused and potent at the moment so I’ll give them a chance here. Palermo look lost without Goian and aren’t scoring goals so they’re fodder for anyone at the moment, in my view. Therefore, backing Genoa to win this game at evens looks a good call today.
Team news – Genoa miss Destro and Flores Flores whereas Palermo miss Goian.
Verdict: Genoa to win at evens.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield – away win with draw no bet at 11/10.
River Plate may be unbeaten in all four Primera Division games thus far but that stems entirely from them becoming increasingly competent in defence. They’ve still got massive problems when it comes to scoring goals and this is the type of game where it can be exploited. River Plate miss important full-back Ferrari for this game through suspension so their iron defence is finally going to be given a thorough test from Moralez and co. and Velez really should score as a result. Velez’s displays of late have been somewhat mixed but the fact remains that Velez are the most potent side in Argentina with Silva and Martinez scoring the goals and therefore I think they’ll breach the River defence tonight, especially with Ferrari absent! Velez’s confidence has been knocked lately and their defensive displays have shown that so I wouldn’t rule out a rare River Plate goal in this game. However, I’d be surprised to see what I can only describe as a superior Velez Sarsfield losing this game so my call is for Velez to win with draw no bet cover at 11/10.
Team news – River Plate miss Ferrari.
Verdict: Velez Sarsfield to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Brisbane Roar vs Central Coast Mariners – Brisbane Roar to win at 7/10.
Brisbane Roar have been terrific this season, which has largely been down to young strike duo Barbarouses and Solorzano being in excellent form, especially with youngster Nichols chipping in from midfield too. Brisbane have had a lot of success by keeping the same team playing together at all times and that should be what wins it for them today. They’ve dominated both of the recent games against Central Coast Mariners, winning once and drawing once, but have scored a minimum of two goals in each game. With this game actually being played in Brisbane, the hosts not only have an ability advantage but also home advantage so you really have to fancy Brisbane here. Central Coast Mariners won’t lie down and make this game easy for the hosts but without playmaker Perez in their team, it’s hard to see the visitors getting a result here. Mariners can never been questioned on their dedication or tenacity but when it comes to scoring goals, Perez’s creativity will be a big blow for the visitors and with Brisbane scoring so many goals so easily, I think the home win at 7/10 is a good bet today as Brisbane could and probably should be a tad shorter here.
Team news – Central Coast Mariners miss Perez for this game.
Verdict: Brisbane Roar to win at 7/10.
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna – home win at evens.
It’s never easy to bet on a Vienna derby but I think there’s enough to go off today. Austria Vienna had a good squad at the start of the season and only really lacked in the goalscoring department. However, the support of new Dutch midfielder Barazite has aided target man Linz out a lot so Austria Vienna are starting to look a potent side again, which also helps take attention away from the fact that Tomas Jun has only bagged once in nineteen games this season so Austria Vienna have made a smart move by signing the ex-Arsenal youngster. Junuzovic provides a great source of creativity and potency from midfield too and all in all, Austria Vienna look strong at the moment, even with long-term absentee Hlinka still out, especially on the back of four wins from their last five games, scoring fourteen goals along the way.
The same cannot be said for their tempremental rivals Rapid Vienna, however, who have failed to convince me since their return from the winter break. They’ve stumbled to victories at home but away from home, they’ve lost twice and drawn once since their return and considering that their defeats came at Wiener Neustadt and SV Mattersburg respectively, both of which were played without Rapid even scoring a goal, I think it’s fair to observe that Rapid simply aren’t producing the goods on the road. To make matters worse for Rapid, they’ve got a lengthy injury list today with target man Vennegoor of Hesselink still absent, important holding midfielder Heikkinen absent, attacker Gartler absent, playmaker Kavlak absent, and important defender Kayhan absent too. They’ll be thankful that captain Hofmann has finally shaken off his injury for the forseeable future but a Rapid side bereft of goals on the road and not playing well does not look set to do well in their big Vienna derby with so many important players missing.
As long as Austria Vienna approach this game properly then this should be a fairly routine home win and the odds are decent enough to take a chance on.
Team news – Austria Vienna miss Almer and Hlinka whereas Rapid Vienna miss Kayhan, Heikkinen, Vennegoor of Hesselink, Gartler, Kavlak, Dober, and Konigshofer.
Verdict: Austria Vienna to win at evens.
Universidad Catolica vs Nublense – home win with -1.5 handicap at evens.
Some people were surprised by Catolica’s capitulation against Caracas mid-week but I can’t say I was particularly, as readers of the members section can verify. Admittedly, I certainly didn’t think Caracas would score so many goals but I didn’t think the odds on the home win were anywhere close to being accurate as Catolica are largely inexperienced in the Copa Libertadores now, such has their barren spell been until Juan Antonio Pizzi took over as boss. Catolica have the personnel to do alright in the competition but they need to learn from their mistakes quickly. Domestically speaking, Catolica are still one of the strongest sides in Chile, hence their lofty perch in the table. A game against Nublense is exactly what the doctor ordered as the visitors are conceding easily and not scoring goals so I expect Catolica to record a straightforward home win here. For me, there’s value in taking Catolica to win this game with a -1.5 goal handicap as they need to bounce back, they have a good motivator, and they’re by far the superior team here. In fact, since Nublense were promoted a few years ago, Catolica have recorded five wins against them and four of them have beaten the -1.5 goal handicap. Given that this Catolica squad is the strongest they’ve had for some time, I think they’ll clear the -1.5 goal handicap tonight too.
Verdict: Universidad Catolica to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at evens.
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Envigado – home win at 5/6.
I’m not sure I can really understand these odds at all. Since Envigado were promoted many years ago, Atletico Junior have recorded nine wins and one draw from their ten home games and they’re just as strong as ever so why not again tonight? The only reason I can think for the bookies placing such long odds on Junior winning this game was because of their Copa Libertadores actions mid-week but even that doesn’t make sense. Bolivia’s altitude can make away games in that competition difficult but there’s no altitude in Santa Cruz, which is where Junior were playing, so I don’t see the problem here. They may rotate a few players but they’re still one of the top dogs in Colombia whereas Envigado are a mid-table side at best who simply enjoy being hard to beat. For me, this is a cast-iron home win at surprisingly good odds of 5/6.
Verdict: Atletico Junior Barranquilla to win at 5/6.
Usti nad Labem vs Slovacko – over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Both of these two sides are battling against relegation from the Gambrinus Liga and thus this is a very important game indeed. Both sides have demonstrated beyond any reasonable doubt that neither can defend for shit but both sides have started scoring goals since returning from the winter break so both sides will fancy their chances here. I’d find it hard to pick a winner between the two sides but with some really poor defending on show in all of each club’s respective recent games, I think over 2.5 goals is generously priced at 11/10.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Slavia Prague vs Teplice – both sides to score at 10/11.
I don’t like backing Slavia to score but Teplice have conceded so many goals lately against poor attacking sides that they should concede here too. Teplice are the better of the two sides nowadays and can score goals themselves but Slavia got a great result last match and if this game is as open as I expect then both sides should score goals here, especially if Slovakian magician Kisel is in his usual inspired form for Slavia Prague.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 10/11.
PAOK Salonika vs Olympiakos Piraeus – away win at 33/20.
PAOK have been poor since balancing domestic and European commitments whereas Olympiakos have breezed along. PAOK are generally hard to beat in Salonika but Olympiakos are playing really well this season, scoring goals for fun. That information coupled with the fact that PAOK still have their internal issues makes me think that Olympiakos should be able to beat a jaded PAOK side today at very generous odds although caution is absolutely recommended as no trip to Salonika is ever easy.
Verdict: Olympiakos Piraeus to win at 33/20.
AS Roma vs Lazio – AS Roma to win at 11/8.
I don’t like entering Rome derbies but Lazio’s internal issues are spiralling out of control. They did well to beat Palermo lately but they’ve still been really unconvincing of late, in my view. Roma might have a dubious manager in Montella but he at least knows the value of this derby as he’s played in it many times. With Lazio having a few notable absentees and internal conflicts whilst Roma try and get behind manager Montella and his talented team, I think Roma should have the upper hand here. Roma have won the last four “eternal derbies” against Lazio and with such a strong midfield able to combat Lazio’s stuttering side, I think Roma can edge this despite Roma being dodgy at the back so my call is a Roma win at 11/8 but expect plenty of cards, as per usual!
Team news – AS Roma miss Cassetti and Brighi whereas Lazio miss Rocchi, Mauri, Dias, and Brocchi.
Verdict: AS Roma to win at 11/8.
Catania vs Sampdoria – home win at 21/20.
Sampdoria have been woeful since they sold all their attackers – unsurprisingly – and should be again today. They still have a decent team but if you’re not scoring goals then you’re geneally not a threat. Catania may not have impressed lately but in Sicily, they’re a really tough side to face. Catania are strong at home – hence seven wins and just three defeats in fourteen home games in Serie A this season, which is one of the best records in the lower-half of the Serie A table as far as home records go – and have some very good players at their disposal and given the importance of this game, I think Catania should edge this one, especially with integral holding midfielder Palombo and quintessential defender Gastadello absent for Sampdoria today. Sampdoria have failed to score in three out of their last four games and against a defensively sound Catania side, I don’t see that record improving today. For me, the hosts are decent value at 21/20.
Team news – Catania miss Biagianti, Capuano, Bellusci, and Sciacca whereas Sampdoria miss Semioli, Pozzi, Palombo, and Gastadello.
Verdict: Catania to win at 21/20.
Cagliari vs Udinese – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Sardinia is never an easy place to go for an away game as Cagliari are really good at home and often score a lot at home. Udinese looked far from immortal against Bari so they can be troubled and against an unpredictable and able Cagliari side, I think we could see a lot of goals here. Cagliari miss defender Pisano here, which is a blow for Cagliari as he’s played a lot lately. Udinese’s ever-fit players are still…fit, unsurprisingly, with just one absentee today – Angella. I don’t know what Udinese do to keep their players so injury-free but it’s really quite miraculous so fair play to them.
Six out of Cagliari’s last eight home games have gone over 2.5 goals whereas Udinese’s last seven away games in a row have all gone over 2.5 goals. With Di Natale and Sanchez in such lethal form for Udinese and the talented Acquafresca keen to prove his worth to Cagliari boss Donadoni, I think we’ll see plenty of goals here so my call is over 2.5 goals at decent odds, just as it has been for three out of the last four head-to-heads between these two sides.
Team news – Cagliari miss Nene, Blondini, Pisano, and Ariaudo whereas Udinese miss Angella.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Lecce vs Bologna – home win at 13/10.
Lecce have been terrific lately and unlucky with some of their results. They’re scoring a lot of goals and have a lot of belief currently so should do well here, especially in front of their boisterous fans! Lecce have actually scored for ten consecutive games now, scoring against AS Roma, AC Milan, and Juventus along the way, just to name a few. This Lecce side knows no fear and are giving it their best shot to beat the dreaded drop into Serie B and with most of their injured players back and ready to play again, I fancy Lecce a lot here, especially with Giacomazzi and Olivera commanding the game from midfield.
Bologna are a nightmare to face at home but away from home, they’re very vulnerable and I think Lecce can take advantage of them today. They’ve already lost seven Serie A away games this season and with only AS Roma, Parma, and hosts today Lecce having conceded more away goals than they have this season, it’s hard to see that record improving here. Bologna still aren’t an easy side to face but they value their home comforts an awful lot, which is something that is generally visible from how easily they’re exposed in games away from home. Importantly, defenders Garics and Esposito are both absent for Bologna today, which is a blow to their hopes of taking a result from Lecce, as is the absent of midfielder Mudingayi. Bologna are going to have to attack Lecce here to get a result so we could see plenty of goals.
However, based on how each side has played lately, that type of game will only yield one winner and that’s Lecce. They’re in really good form in front of goal and although they are unquestionably dodgy at the back, they’ve got tremendous spirit and home advantage here so my call is the home win for Lecce against a Bologna side missing some important players.
Team news – Lecce miss Di Michele, Ofere, and Rispoli whereas Bologna miss Garics, Mudingayi, and Esposito.
Verdict: Lecce to win at 13/10.
De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag – away win at 13/10.
My initial interest in this game was to look at over 2.5 goals given how ADO’s miraculously good form has continued but in researching even further into this game, I’ve changed my mind entirely and veered towards an away win.
Why? Well, De Graafschap usually do quite well at home because of their solid defence and better sides than ADO Den Haag have found that out this season. However, considering that De Graafschap miss almost all of their defence for this game (Frankel, Buljis, Nalbantoglu, and Saejis), not to mention ex-Ajax attacking midfielder Hersi, it’s beyond hard to envision them getting anything from this game. If they have no defence then they’re going to struggle against anyone, let alone one of the most potent sides in the Eredivisie at the moment! De Graafschap missing Hersi affects their attacking game too so they’re in a real mire here! ADO Den Haag only have doubts over Kubik but they’ve got cover for him so De Graafschap have every reason to be afraid here. Verhoek and Bulykin will look to run riot in attack as they have done for most of the season and with barely any recognisable defence at all available for De Graafschap, I have to favour the away win here at 13/10.
Team news – De Graafschap miss El Hassnaoui, Nalbantoglu, Saeijs, Hersi, Frankel, and Buljs whereas ADO Den Haag have doubts over Kubik.
Verdict: ADO Den Haag to win at 13/10..
Olimpia Asuncion vs Rubio Nu – home win with -1.5 handicap at 13/10.
Olimpia have been fantastic so far this season, by far the best of all the Asuncion sides so I have to fancy them here. Rubio Nu’s day of being hard to beat are somewhat behind them and with Olimpia are entering this game on the back of an “El Clasico” 4-3 win against Guarani Asuncion in their last home game so confidence is as high as can be, irrespective of the 0-0 draw at Tacuary last match. Olimpia have been immense at home this season with three wins from three games, bagging twelve goals along the way and clearing the -1.5 goal handicap in two of those games. Olimpia have such belief in their team at the moment that it’s hard to resist them, especially with Argentinian striker Fereyra in such good form so I’m siding with the home team here. Rubio Nu have already shipped six goals in two away games this season, losing 4-1 at Libertad Asuncion during their last away game so you can see how easy it can be to take their fragile defence apart. History sides with Rubio Nu in this fixture so I can semi-understand the odds on show but to be honest, I’ve not seen an Olimpia Asuncion side this good for some time so I’m going to boldly call yet another -1.5 goal handicap win for in-form Olimpia Asuncion.
Verdict: Olimpia Asuncion to win with -1.5 handicap at 13/10.
Naval de Maio vs Maritimo Funchal – home win at 6/4.
A lot of people have been betting against Naval de Maio lately and that puzzles me. Let’s face it – they’re probably the most motivated side in the Liga Sagres at the moment to win any game and they’re now gone eight games without defeat in all competitions so let’s give them a bit of respect, eh? They’re near the bottom of the table because they started the season badly, not because they’re the worst side in the universe!
The thing to remember with Liga Sagres betting is that the vast majority of sides are very similar in quality and ability so betting against a side just because they’re near the bottom of the table can be a very foolhardy thing to do. The Liga Sagres is generally not a league of goals but more defence than anything else so always bet with caution in this division. However, I’m going to stick my neck out and side with Naval de Maio for this game because they’ve demonstrated lately that they’ve remembered how to score goals and play some good football too. They unfortunately miss important defender Carlitos for this game but the momentum that they’ve got should hopefully steer them to success in this game.
Although I wouldn’t dream of denying that Maritimo Funchal are the better of these two sides, what I would say is that I’ve not seen a Maritimo side so utterly bereft of goals for some time now. They’ve scored just two goals over their last four games and they’ve now lost two consecutive away games so they may find this trip to Naval rather difficult today. Happily, Maritimo miss important defender Joao Guilherme for this game so their stiff resolve may be broken by a driven Naval side today.
Either way, I think we’re in for an interesting game here although it’s not likely to be what I’d call a classic game to watch! I think Naval represent the value bet here despite Maritimo being the better side as Madeira sides rarely travel well and Naval’s recent strong displays are gradually edging them towards a win and with generous odds of 6/4 available for Naval to win this game in their must-win situation, I think that they’re worth taking here.
Team news – Naval de Maio miss Davide and Carlitos whereas Maritimo Funchal miss Pecanha, Fernando, and Joao Guilherme.
Verdict: Naval de Maio to win at 6/4.
CSKA Moscow vs Amkar Perm – under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Every time I’ve watched CSKA Moscow in the current campaign, I’ve been disappointed with how ineffectual they are in front of goal. They’re too one-dimensional in almost every aspect of their attacking game and although they’re obviously a superior side to Amkar Perm, I don’t think that they scoreline will necessarily show it as much as CSKA would like. The Army Men still have their iron defence and few sides will find it easy to score against them but CSKA’s attacking game now relies upon whether Vagner Love is either interested in the game or whether he’s given the correct service, two variants which can obviously change from one game to another with remarkable ease. There are other talented attacking players in this team, don’t get me wrong, but they’re certainly not the flambuoyant side that they were when Carvalho, Zhirkov, and Krasic were in the team and they really miss those options nowadays, in my view. Amkar Perm are much the same side as they were last year; a poor man’s Rubin Kazan’. Amkar seek to control the ball or keep men behind it, trying to concede as few goals as possible. Their goal threat has been dealt a hefty blow with veteran striker Kushev leaving to return to Bulgaria some months ago so it’ll be interesting to see how Amkar cope in attack this season. However, I don’t expect to see anything but a defensive display from Amkar today because they’re simply how they play football in these type of games against big clubs.
Amkar’s last two trips to face CSKA have both gone under 2.5 goals and the last four head-to-heads between these two sides have gone under 2.5 goals. I see very little from either side to persuade me that this game will go anything but under 2.5 goals so that’s my call today.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Terek Grozny vs Zenit St.Petersburg – home win with draw no bet at 13/8.
I can’t say that I’m a fan of Ruud Gullit’s managerial style as he tends to fuck things up more than helping things along but let’s face it – he’ll have to be in Chechnya or it’ll be more than his job at risk!
Terek have long been the subject of match-fixing probes and there’s no doubt in my mind that some of their games are indeed fixed. However, take nothing away from the ability that this side possesses and how strong they are at home. Chechnya is a really intimidating place to go for an away game and Zenit St.Petersburg know it, having failed to win against Terek in four out of their last five trips to Grozny. Indeed, Zenit failed to register a single goal against a battling Terek side at all last season, playing out two 0-0 draws with the Grozny-based outfit so don’t expect Zenit just to walk this game because you can name more of their players than you can of Terek’s!
Terek have changed very little since last season and although Zenit are still a superior side with great strength in-depth, I still don’t envision Zenit doing well here. Terek often play well in front of their own fans as the prime minister/president tends to attend their games and from what I hear, if things don’t go their way or he’s not appeased, then heads do roll so never underestimate Terek! Zenit have the ability to win this game but on the back of an unexpected 3-0 defeat against Twente Enschede in the Netherlands earlier this week, I just don’t think that they’ll have the confidence to win such a tough game.
For me, Terek have a decent chance of winning this game. It’s a good time to face Zenit and with a new manager to impress and their atypical strong home advantage, my call here is the home win with draw no bet cover.
Verdict: Terek Grozny to win with draw no bet at 13/8.
Sevilla CF vs Barcelona – away win to nil at 13/10.
The big news in Andaluscia this week was that Brazilian striker Luis Fabiano has finally actually managed to find a club that wants him signed for old club Sao Paulo, leaving Sevilla CF with less options in attack but perhaps a more focused attack now that they don’t have to deal with his tantrums. Manzano has no time for players like that and I think from a long-term perspective, his departure could aid Sevilla.
Whether Fabiano was here or not, however, I don’t think Sevilla’s game will go well with Barcelona tonight. Gone are the days when Sevilla would go toe-to-toe with Barcelona and play an open, expansive passing game. Manzano’s in charge here now and he’ll keep men behind the ball to make this game as difficult as possible for the Catalans, which is a shame considering that Puyol is still absent for Barcelona and they look lost without him, especially with Pique supposedly having more of an eye for new girlfriend Shakira than he does on the field of late! With that type of mentality, however, I don’t see Sevilla playing well or even scoring here. I suspect they’ll close Barcelona down and make them work hard but from an offensive perspective, I just don’t see this now-defensive Sevilla side posing a threat to Barcelona because I don’t think they’ll commit the necessary numbers forward, hence my selection today.
Ultimately, I expect this game to take a very similar route to Barcelona’s recent win at Valencia CF in Valenciana; few goals, Barcelona making the majority of the chances, narrow Barcelona win on the cards. Sevilla have the personnel to trouble Barcelona, don’t get me wrong, but they lack an adventurous manager for this type of occasion so I think this will be one of Barcelona’s easiest trips to Andaluscia in years. That said, Barcelona do need to take their chances but with the superb Messi and in-form David Villa on the park, you can’t help but feel that they’ll score at somepoint and if they do then I expect them to hold it. For me, there’s value in backing Barcelona to win without conceding at 13/10.
Team news – Sevilla CF miss Escude and Palop whereas Barcelona miss Puyol.
Verdict: Barcelona to win to nil at 13/10.
Osasuna vs Racing Santander – lay Osasuna at 4/5.
Osasuna are a nightmare side to face in Pamplona but only because of their strong defence. Indeed, Osasuna boast such a strong record at the Reyno de Navarra that only Real Madrid can match their excellent record of having conceded just six home goals in the Primera Liga this season. New manager Mendilibar has steered Osasuna to more successful displays during his reign but their results haven’t drastically increased, which is largely because they don’t score enough goals, which in turn is because of Pandiani’s frequent trips to the physiotherapist.
Osasuna are a force to be reckoned with in the Basque country but that’s from the perspective of actually trying to beat them. In terms of wins, Osasuna have only recorded two wins in their last seven Primera Liga home games so you can see my point regarding their goalscoring issue. Their defence has looked a lot stronger now that Monreal is back at left-back and with Miguel Flano in the middle of defence, it’s going to take a really good goal for them to concede in the Basque country but without Pandiani or Aranda available to them today, it’s going to take a really good goal for them to actually score here too.
Visitors Racing Santander were finally undone last match by Real Madrid in a 1-3 defeat but Marcelino’s men played quite well, in my view. I doubt they’ll be too demoralised following that result because what else would you expect from a game against one fo the top two clubs in Spain? Santander still bringer a far greater threat in front of goal than they did earlier this season and although the statistics drastically disagree with me here, I actually think that Santander are a better defensive side than Osasuna. Santander had a poor season until Marcelino returned and they’ve looked a lot stronger all over the park since his return and that’s what has made the difference to their season. Under his stewardship, Santander were a nightmare to score against away from home over the past few years and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the same type of record start to re-appear.
Either way, I see very little between these two defensively-minded, northern Spain sides so I think we’ll see a low-scoring game with plenty of cards, such is the feisty mannerisms of the northerners. The only real difference that I can see is that Santander bring a greater threat on goal than Osasuna do to this game and if the visitors take the lead then I don’t think they’ll lose this game today. For me, the value is in laying hosts Osasuna as the odds are surprisingly generous at 4/5 when you consider how well Santander have played of late.
P.S. Osasuna haven’t beaten their bogey team Racing Santander for thirteen consecutive games now, losing their last four home games in a row.
Team news – Osasuna miss Pandiani, Aranda, Oier, and Ruper whereas Racing Santander miss Tziolis, Serrano, Arana, and Adrian.
Verdict: Lay Osasuna at 4/5.
Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna – lay Espanyol at 4/5.
Espanyol’s home record is good in the Primera Liga this season but they’ve been a bit poor lately, which is to be expected with star striker Osvaldo still out with his lengthy injury. Espanyol find it hard to come by goals without him but have also suffered defensively in the past few games without Forlin. Forlin returns for this game to steady the ship at the back but they’re still not back to normal in attack wtih Sergio Garcia joining Osvaldo on the sidelines for this game so I don’t see a good enough goal threat in this game for Espanyol to warrant such short odds. The absence of prodigy Amat in defence leaves a gap that Deportivo could exploit here too, so I’d be very wary of the home win here. Visitors Deportivo have been in good form lately, going unbeaten in five consecutive games and conceding just twice along the way despite facing Villarreal CF and Real Madrid along the way. This is the old Deportivo that is coming back; the one which nobody likes to face because of the belief that they have in themselves and the iron defence which they possess. It takes a very special display to defeat an in-form Deportivo side and I just don’t think Espanyol have that in their arsenal at the current time. Deportivo unfortunately miss star striker Riki for this game, as well as newbie Xisco, but Lotina has the necessary firepower for his 4-5-1 with Sand, Lassad, and Adrian all in the squad for this game. It’ll be fascinating to see how well Deportivo play if and when Brazilian playmaker Juca returns to the fold but for the present time, Deportivo are still playing very well and with talented wingers like Guardado in their team, it’s easy to see why they’ve been so good in counter-attacks lately.
Espanyol have lost four out of their last five games, conceding goals far too easily and finding it hard to overcome their respective deficits due to a lack of firepower and that’s the type of scenario I envision occurring today. The absence of Riki up front for Deportivo concerns me a little but if Depor score here then I don’t see them losing this game so laying Espanyol for this game at 4/5 appeals to me.
Team news – Espanyol miss Osvaldo, Amat, Sergio Garcia, and Victor Alvarez whereas Deportivo La Coruna miss Xisco, Valeron, and Riki.
Verdict: Lay Espanyol at 4/5.
St.Gallen vs Young Boys Bern – away win at 5/6.
I don’t like backing Young Boys Bern away from their beloved artificial pitch but St.Gallen are one of the few sides that I have faith in them beating nowadays. St.Gallen sit at the bottom of the Super League with a virtually guaranteed place in the Challenge League awaiting them next season due to a catastrophic campaign thus far. They’ve already lost eight out of eleven home games in the Super League due to a complete lack of goal threat and defensive ineptitude which has led to them gaining a record of having conceded over two goals per home game, hence their problematic position. St.Gallen came back refreshed from the winter break after some good displays in friendlies but have subsequently had that freshness kicked out of them via five consecutive Super League defeats, two of which were at home, leaking thirteen goals along the way whilst scoring just twice. Relegation form? I certainly think so.
Young Boys Bern don’t convince me in front of goal with N’Tsama and Mayuka occasionally lacking what Doumbia used to bring to this team. However, the acquisition of Swedish playmaker Farnerud has improved their creativity so Young Boys Bern have started scoring more goals, which is useful for today’s bet. Young Boys Bern usually don’t travel too well as it’s hard for sides to adjust when their usual games are played on artificial turf but St.Gallen are playing so badly at the moment that I’d frankly fancy Young Boys Bern to win this game if it were being played in a volcano due to a distinct gap in quality.
For me, the odds on Young Boys Bern are a bit long here so my call is the away win at 5/6, especially with St.Gallen missing their best attacker (Calabro) and important midfielder Winter.
Team news – St.Gallen miss Regazzoni, Winter, Calabro, and Lehrmann whereas Young Boys Bern miss Dussin, Nef, and Schneuwly.
Verdict: Young Boys Bern to win at 5/6.
Bucaspor vs Gaziantepspor – away win at 23/20.
I’m not overly fond of taking the away win in Turkey but this one is an away win if I’ve ever seen one. Bucaspor have been playing their “relegation form” football for some time now and I think their stay in the Super Lig will end very soon. They’ve lost four consecutive games ahead of this one, scoring just once along the way, and generally looking rather unconvincing. Happily, they’re missing two important defenders for this game – Koray and Mulemo respectively – as well as important midfielder Taskiran so they’re far from at full-strength here and with a demoralised side already in front of him, Aybaba has an uphill task to take anything from this game today, in my view.
Gaziantepspor may be over-achieving but they’re in such a good vein of form that it’s hard to overlook them today. They’re unbeaten since the start of December, which is an awe-inspiring run by the surprise European place candidates. They’ve actually gone fourteen games without defeat now, winning four out of their last five away games with only a 0-0 draw at Galatasaray puncturing their fine run of away form. Confidence is very high in their camp at the moment and with Ivelin Popov pulling the strings in midfield, it’s easy to see why they’re all so happy as the tricky winger has brought a much better level of creativity to their team than before. Popov and Adin’s support from midfield for either Sosa or Cesar in attack has proven invaluable and frankly, Kafkas has one of the best Gaziantepspor sides in years at his command and in such a rich vein of form, it’s hard to see anything going wrong for them in the near future.
With no notable absences today and their hosts missing some really key players, I have to side with the generously priced away win here, especially given the demoralised state of the hosts.
Team news – Bucaspor miss Koray, Mulemo, and Taskiran for this game.
Verdict: Gaziantepspor to win at 23/20.
Sivasspor vs Kayserispor – over 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Since coming back from the winter break, Sivasspor have really impressed me. Their spirit is back and they’ve made some really good signings over the winter break with Rada, Navratil, and most notably Grosicki lighting up their team. As a result, Sivasspor have played more enthused and dangerous football, which has resulted them in scoring more goals and obtaining more points. Their last five consecutive Super Lig games have gone over 2.5 goals as they continue to attack more because they believe in themselves but to be fair to Sivasspor, they’ve had some horrendous fixtures with home games against high-flying Trabzonspor, counter-attacking genius’ Manisaspor, and away games against a tough Eskisehirspor, in-form Gaziantepspor, and a damn good Bursaspor side so they’ve been a tad unfortunate, really. Perhaps today is the day when they take their overdue win but I’m not going to get involved with the 1×2 market here, especially with defender Abudrrahman absent today.
Visitors Kayserispor have a tendency to lock up away from home but I doubt that they’ll try and do that against an adventurous Sivasspor side, not when Kayserispor have good enough players to exploit them on the counter-attack. Aside from that, Kayserispor miss important defender Kesimal for this game so they’re likely to concede against a battling Sivasspor side so coach Shota Arveladze will most likely have to re-think his strategy for this game. Kayserispor have gone over 2.5 goals in three out of their last five games as they continue to take their chances well although defeat at home to Manisaspor last match won’t have done their confidence any good so they need to be careful here.
I don’t personally think that there’s as much between these two sides as the Super Lig table suggests but with both sides missing defenders and both sides scoring goals for fun at the moment, I can’t help but feel that the odds on over 2.5 goals are too generous to be overlooked in this game.
Team news – Sivasspor miss Abdurrahman whereas Kayserispor miss Kesimal.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Karpaty Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk – over 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Lviv is not a place that Shakhtar have enjoyed playing football in recent years with Karpaty continually giving them a hard game and now that Karpaty have started buying even better players ala Gomez, Lucas, Cocis etc. it looks like it’ll get even harder for Shakhtar. Karpaty often score goals at home due to their attacking nature and although their defence can be caught out from time to time, I’d be surprised to see Shakhtar have an easy game here. Shakhtar are obviously the superior of these two sides but this game isn’t an easy one for them at all. They’ll be brimming with confidence following their emphatic win over AS Roma in the UEFA Champions League but if they approach this game with complacency then they’ll be duly punished.
Either way, I think there’s a good chance that this game will go over 2.5 goals. Shakhtar have the firepower and the finesse to score goals here but they’ve looked fairly vulnerable at the back in recent games too. Let’s also not forget the recent foreigner rule brought in by the Ukrainian FA to ensure that at least four Ukrainians are on the field of play at any given time and that’s bad news for Shakhtar, who will have to make changes with that in mind and possibly be under-strength as a result.
For me, there’s a good chance of this game going over 2.5 goals so that’s my call at 3/4.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Metalist Kharkiv vs Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk – both sides to score at 4/5.
You can call this one instinct or whatever you like but these two sides are the third and fourth best sides in the Ukraine respectively and both have made some pretty hefty changes over the winter break so I expect to see repercussions of that today. Dnipro defended like idiots against Tavriya Simferopol last match instead of dominating as they normally would and I personally attribute that to their new signings not having gelled yet. Metalist Kharkiv have found goals hard to come by with their imports failing to impress thus far so both sides have a point to prove here. With Metalist having the home advantage and Dnipro boasting a potent attack, I can’t help but feel that both sides will score here, especially if Dnipro defend as badly in this game as they did in their last game, so my call is for both sides to score here, just as they have done for the last two meetings in Kharkiv.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Bella Vista vs Defensor Sporting – away win at evens.
It’s no coincidence that Bella Vista losing three consecutive games has coincided with them scoring once during those three games and if they adopt such tactics against Defensor Sporting tonight then they’re going to lose this game. Bella Vista have lost their last three home games consecutively against Defensor Sporting – the last thing they need to do is make it easier for their more illustrious opponents! However, Defensor Sporting are playing really well at the moment and irrespective of whether Bella Vista were playing well or not, I’d still fancy them to win this game. It’s rare to see a South American side take the 1-0 win route as most of them aren’t good enough defensively to do it properly but giants Defensor Sporting are certainly proving to be and thus they must be taken seriously here.
Away wins in South America are never easy to call so approach this one with caution but a class and form difference both favouring Defensor Sporting makes the away win at evens look interesting.
Verdict: Defensor Sporting to win at evens.
Cerro vs Penarol – away win at evens.
Cerro have been vulnerable this season and it should show tonight against their superior opponents. Cerro’s form has picked up in the past few games, it’s true, so momentum does favour them here. However, Penarol have started to gain some consistency and considering that I personally think they’re currently the best side in Uruguay (when they feel like showing it!) that makes them a very dangerous opponent indeed. Confidence is high following a Copa Libertadores win against Ecuador’s finest export in Liga de Quito and Penarol will look to make it four wins from four tonight and let’s face it – they’ve definitely got the firepower to do so. They’re the most potent side in Uruguay for me and given that Cerro parted with a lot of big players over the last transfer window, I think a good side like Penarol should be able to utilise their momentum to win this game in a rather straightforward fashion tonight.
Well, I say “straightforward” but nothing is straightforward in South America! No doubt we’ll see at least three red cards just to make me look a fool! However, Penarol have won three out of their last four visits to Cerro and should be able to repeat their impressive record here tonight. I’d endorse some caution here as Penarol are heading to Ecuador in five days to face Liga de Quito again and Penarol may rest players tonight to try and avoid injuries ahead of the nightmare altitude match. However, Penarol have the strongest bench in Uruguay for me and should still be able to record a win in this game, hence my selection.
Verdict: Penarol to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Estudiantes De La Plata, CSKA Sofia, Universidad Catolica, Liga de Quito, Energie Cottbus, Ekranas Panevezys, Twente Enschede, Olimpia Asuncion, Poli Timisoara, SL Benfica, Rangers, Fenerbahce, Lugano, Dynamo Kiev.
Recommended bets:
Genoa, SL Benfica -1.5, and Twente Enschede at 3/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (8) 2-0
Colon de Santa Fe vs Racing Club Avellaneda (5) both sides to score
River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield (6) 0-1
Australian A-League:
Brisbane Roar vs Central Coast Mariners (7) 2-0
Austrian Bundesliga:
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Bulgarian A PFG:
Beroe vs Slavia Sofia (6) 1-0
CSKA Sofia vs Rakovski (9) -1.5 handicap
Chilean Primera Division:
La Serena vs Palestino (5) 1-0
Cobreloa vs O’Higgins (6) 0-1
Santiago Morning vs Union Espanola (6) both sides to score
Universidad Catolica vs Nublense (8) -1.5 handicap
Colombian Primera A:
Itagui Ditaires vs America de Cali (5) 1-1
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Envigado (7) 2-1
Cucuta Deportivo vs Deportivo Pereira (6) 1-0
Boyaca Chico vs Real Cartagena (5) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Atletico Huila vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin (4) 1-2
Cypriot Division 1:
Enosis Neon Paralimni vs Ethnikos Achnas (6) 2-1
A.E.Paphos vs Apollon Limassol (5) 1-0
Ermis vs Alki Larnaca (4) over 2.5 goals
AEL Limassol vs APOP/Kinyras (7) 2-0
Omonia Nicosia vs Doxa (5) over 2.5 goals
Anorthosis Famagusta vs AEK Larnaca (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Jablonec vs Hradec Kralove (8) 2-0
Ceske Budejovice vs Bohemians 1905 (6) 0-0
Usti nad Labem vs Slovacko (4) over 2.5 goals
Slavia Prague vs Teplice (4) both sides to score
Danish Superligaen:
Esbjerg vs Randers (6) 0-1
Brondby vs SonderjyskE (6) 2-1
Silkeborg vs AC Horsens (4) 1-2
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Liga de Quito vs Espoli Cayambe (8) -1.5 handicap
Independiente vs Olmedo Riobamba (4) 0-1
El Nacional Quito vs Emelec Guayaquil (6) 0-0
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Deportivo Quito (5) 1-2
English Championship:
Cardiff City vs Barnsley (6) over 2.5 goals
English FA Cup:
Stoke City vs West Ham United (6) 2-1
Manchester City vs Reading (7) both sides to score
French Ligue 1:
Girondins de Bordeaux vs AS Monaco (5) under 2.5 goals
LOSC Lille vs Valenciennes (7) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Paris Saint-Germain vs Montpellier HSC (7) 1-0
German Bundesliga:
Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (6) both sides to score
St.Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart (4) 1-2
German Bundesliga 2:
Alemannia Aachen vs VfL Bochum (5) over 2.5 goals
Arminia Bielefeld vs 1860 Munich (6)
Energie Cottbus vs Osnabruck (8)
Greek Super League:
Ergotelis vs Atromitos (6) 1-1
Panionios vs Larissa (5) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
AEK Athens vs Kavala (3) 1-1
Kerkyra vs Aris Salonika (6) under 2.5 goals
PAOK Salonika vs Olympiakos Piraeus (6) 0-1
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Vasas Budapest vs Ujpest (5) 1-1
Italian Serie A:
AC Milan vs Bari (8) -1.5 handicap
AS Roma vs Lazio (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Catania vs Sampdoria (7) 1-0
Cagliari vs Udinese (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Genoa vs Palermo (6) under 2.5 goals
Lecce vs Bologna (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Chievo Verona vs Fiorentina (6) under 2.5 goals
Parma vs SSC Napoli (6) both sides to score
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Klaipeda vs Siauliai (5) 0-1
Atlantas vs Ekranas Panevezys (9) -1.5 handicap
Mexican Primera Division:
Morelia vs Pumas UNAM (6) over 2.5 goals
Toluca vs Santos Laguna (5) 1-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag (7) over 2.5 goals
Twente Enschede vs VVV Venlo (8) -1.5 handicap
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs NAC Breda (7) 2-0
Willem II vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (6) 0-1
NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven (4) 2-2
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Sol de America vs Cerro Porteno (7) 0-2
Independiente FBC vs Tacuary (5) 0-1
Olimpia Asuncion vs Rubio Nu (8) -1.5 handicap
Peruvian Primera Division:
Cobresol vs Sport Boys (6) 0-0
Cienciano vs Alianza Atletico (5) 2-1
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Zaglebie Lubin vs Polonia Warsaw (5) over 2.5 goals
Cracovia Krakow vs Lech Poznan (6) 0-1
Polish Liga 1:
Nieciecza vs Bogdanka Leczna (5) over 2.5 goals
Kolejarz Stroze vs Kluczbork (7) under 2.5 goals
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Naval de Maio vs Maritimo Funchal (5) 1-0
CD Nacional de Madeira vs Academica de Coimbra (6) 1-0
SL Benfica vs Portimonense (9) -1.5 handicap
Romanian Liga:
Sportul Studentesc vs Gaz Metan Medias (6) 0-0
Poli Timisoara vs Universitatea Craiova (8) 2-0
Russian Premier League:
Kuban Krasnodar’ vs Rubin Kazan’ (6) 0-1
CSKA Moscow vs Amkar Perm (7) under 2.5 goals
Terek Grozny vs Zenit St.Petersburg (5) 2-1
Scottish Premier League:
Rangers vs Kilmarnock (8) 2-1
Singaporean S-League:
Home United vs Albirex Niigata (7) 2-0
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Triglav vs Primorje (5) 1-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Osasuna vs Racing Santander (5) 0-1, at least one red card in this game
Real Sociedad vs Malaga (6) 2-1
Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna (4) 0-1
Levante vs Real Mallorca (5) 2-1
Villarreal CF vs Sporting Gijon (7) 1-0
Sevilla CF vs Barcelona (7) 0-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Granada (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Salamanca vs Recreativo de Huelva (6) under 2.5 goals
Swiss Super League:
Bellinzona vs Basel (7) 1-2
St.Gallen vs Young Boys Bern (7) 0-1
Thun vs Neuchatel Xamax (6) 2-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Lugano vs Wil (8)
Schaffhausen vs Locarno (5) under 2.5 goals
Biel-Bienne vs Yverdon Sport (7)
Delemont vs Winterthur (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Antalyaspor vs Genclerbirligi (4) 1-2
Ankaragucu vs Galatasaray (6) 1-0
Bucaspor vs Gaziantepspor (7) 1-2
Sivasspor vs Kayserispor (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Fenerbahce vs Konyaspor (9) -1.5 handicap
Ukrainian Premier League:
Illichivets Mariupol vs Zorya Lugansk (5) 1-0
Karpaty Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk (4) over 2.5 goals
Metalist Kharkiv vs Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk (6) both sides to score
Dynamo Kiev vs Vorskla Poltava (9) -1.5 handicap
Uruguayan Primera Division:
El Tanque Sisley vs Central Espanol (6) 1-2
Bella Vista vs Defensor Sporting (7) 0-1
River Plate Montevideo vs Danubio (7) 1-2
Cerro vs Penarol (6) 0-1
Miramar Misiones vs Tacuarembo (4) 2-1
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Yaracuyanos vs Deportivo Petare (6) 1-1
Caracas vs Atletico Venezuela (8) 2-0
Deportivo Lara vs Atletico El Vigia (5) 1-0
Deportivo Anzoategui vs Real Esppor Club (6) 1-0
Zamora vs Zulia (6) 2-1
Welsh Premier League:
Neath Athletic vs Port Talbot Town (6) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!