LOSC Lille vs Stade Rennais
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Ligue 1 encounter between crowned champions LOSC Lille and UEFA Europa League hopefuls Stade Rennais. Given that this game is more important for the visitors than it is for their hosts, I can understand the odds here but I don’t agree with them.
LOSC Lille haven’t been champions for something crazy like fifty years and this is their final home game. Are they going to celebrate it? I certainly think so! They’ve had a terrific campaign and although they’re probably going to lose some stars over the summer, they’re still going to enjoy this game and make it count for their fans, I’m sure. Lille have already won twelve out of eighteen Ligue 1 home games this season, a record which only Sochaux can match. Lille have averaged scoring over two goals per home game and conceding less than a goal per home game along the way so it’s easy to see why they do well. They’ve got a very varied attack with plenty of options and although their defence isn’t as good as statistics suggest, they’re still a force to be reckoned with. Entering this game, Lille are unbeaten in nine consecutive games in all competitions, winning six of those games along the way. They’ve also won four out of their last five home games and only Lyon and Bordeaux have left Lille in Ligue 1 without being beaten since December. They might not have to win this game but I think they’ll do everything in their power to make it so today.
Helpfully, Rennes realistically need to win this game to keep their UEFA Europa League dreams alive as the side that is challenging them for the final place (Sochaux) are facing rock-bottom Arles and will most likely emerge victorious there. Rennes have done fairly well on the road in Ligue 1 this season but there’s one glaringly large problem and that’s goalscoring. Since Gyan and Bangura moved on, Rennes have lacked someone clinical in attack and it really shows. Their defence is very solid, arguably the best in France, but today is a day when they need to attack and that’s going to expose their solid defence a lot, which is always dangerous against Lille’s pacey counter-attacks. Rennes have to do it, however (as a lot of their players are sought-after currently i.e. M’Vila, Mandjeck, Marveaux and those that aren’t i.e. Brahimi will start attracting interest soon following good displays) – if they don’t achieve European football then those players are going to wave goodbye and that’ll set Rennes back by at least two years, in my view. Rennes’ have had a massive problem over the past couple of months in the form of injuries, however, and that’s still evident today. This side has won just once in eleven consecutive games now, losing five times along the way. Considering how important this stage of the season is, you have to say that Rennes simply haven’t produced the goods, irrespective of their lengthy absentee list. Rennes have actually failed to score in three out of their last four away games and have subsequently lost three out of their last four away games as a result.
Ultimately, if you’re facing Lille away from home and not scoring goals then you’re going to lose. Rennes have lost two out of their last three Ligue 1 visits to Lille and I can only see Lille winning this one too as I don’t see Rennes scoring enough goals to even match them here. For me, there’s a lot of value in backing Lille to win at 4/5.
Verdict: LOSC Lille to win at 4/5.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Bahia vs Flamengo – home win with draw no bet at 6/5.
This is quite a funny bet but one I like a lot.
You see, Bahia are one of a handful of teams that come from a notoriously hard region of Brazil to play in – Bahia! Seriously – I don’t think I’ve ever tipped an away side to win a game in Bahia because hardly anybody does. It’s like the Brazilian version of the Basque country in Spain, as an example. For those of you who avidly follow Brazilian Serie A football – Bahia are bitter rivals of Vitoria, who were relegated last season and both play a very similar physical kind of football.
Bahia are the kind of side that will fight for every ball, close down every player, and like to kick players when the referee isn’t looking! I firmly believe that this will be a nightmare away game for any Serie A side this season, let alone a glorified Flamengo team!
Flamengo are a huge name in Brazil; we all know that. They captured the hearts of their fans by signing Ronaldinho in summer and yet aside from that, I can’t note that they’ve signed a proper poacher in front of goal, which was their biggest problem last season. Deivid was a decent signing as a short-term measure, Diego Mauricio is showing potential, and Wanderley has a lot of hopes on him without being proven at this level – so where are the goals coming from? I really rate Ronaldinho as a player but he can’t win every game for Flamengo. Flamengo won their opening Serie A game 4-0 against Avai but Avai are poor away from home and look to be relegation fodder this season so I’m not reading much into that.
For me, a Flamengo team being carried by Ronaldinho into arguably their most physical away game of the season is not well-placed to win this game. Bahia are dynamite at home and they will work themselves into the ground to get a result here. For me, taking the home win with draw no bet cover at 6/5 is really appealing today.
Verdict: Bahia to win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Universidad Catolica vs Colo Colo – home win at evens.
Having won the first leg 4-2 at Colo Colo, please approach this one with caution as Catolica don’t need to win the game. However, this is a big rivalry match and there is a lot riding on it so I expect both sides to be highly-motivated for this game and I think we could well see a red card or two here tonight. The reason I am backing Catolica here without them needing to win is Pizzi. I’ve mentioned before what a terrific man-motivator he is and even though Catolica don’t need to win, I firmly believe that he’ll set them up to do just that because it’s what they’re good at; scoring goals. Catolica have even won games this season after Copa Libertadores outings, which is virtually unheard of in any South American country so you can see how good a manager Pizzi actually is. Helpfully, Argentinian midfielder Wilchez is suspended for this game for Colo Colo, which will dent their plans here. The visitors have to attack and score goals or they lost the tie and if they do that then it suits Catolica’s deadly counter-attacks with the likes of Pratto, Calandria, Gutierrez, and Villanueva waiting to pounce. For me, Catolica are at a good price to win this game at evens, even if they don’t need to – I can only see Pizzi making them attack tonight.
Team news – Colo Colo miss Wilchez.
Verdict: Universidad Catolica to win at evens.
Aalesund vs Viking Stavanger – home win at 6/5.
Aalesund’s artificial turf has been a problem for most away sides since they were promoted to the Eliteserien all those years ago but given their combative style under outspoken boss Rekdal, this has rapidly become one of the hardest trips to make in the Eliteserien.
Just look at Aalesund’s squad and who they lost pre-season and marvel at Rekdal’s ability as a boss. They’ve won three out of four home games this season despite a shoestring budget and despite losing lots of regulars pre-season so I have massive respect for the former Norway international. They’re not a particularly potent side – they’re just very hard-working, very well-organised, and they take their chances. Central American threesome Morrison, Phillips, and Barrantes provide a great source of energy and creativity in midfield and with Estonian target man – the aptly named – Post settling in well, Aalesund are really looking solid as a unit again. They do need an alternative to Post for when he’s inevitably rested at some point but Rekdal has done it again; this Aalesund side are a pain to play against!
Viking Stavanger are a good side, especially with former Manchester United striker Erik Nevland leading the line, but their problem is that there’s been too much of idolising the return of their prodigal son rather than actually supporting him on the field. Only winger Bjarnason and hot prospect Berisha have done their part to help out Nevland with experienced Knarvik having been injured. Unfortunately for Viking Stavanger, it’s been too little for them, hence scoring just two goals in their last five Eliteserien games. They weren’t even impressive mid-week as the hosted Divisjon 1 outfit Sandnes Ulf so why would they be on Aalesund’s artificial turf today? Worryingly, Viking have been really poor in defence away from home, shipping seven goals in their last three away games. Indeed, their sole win away from home came due to fortuitous circumstances at Fredrikstad back in April and they even conceded three goals at goal-shy Tromso in their last away match so I can’t take them seriously here.
For me, a well-marshalled Aalesund side has more than enough ability to score and hold a lead against a leaky Viking defence, especially with Nevland and co. not scoring goals away from home. Odds of 6/5 look too generous on this outcome so my call is the home win today.
Verdict: Aalesund to win at 6/5.
Haugesund vs Molde FK – away win at 7/5.
Haugesund were a side I hated betting against last season when they were at home due to some fantastic home displays but from what I’ve seen from them at home this season, they’re in for a long campaign.
Quite how you win just one out of four Eliteserien home games despite averaging scoring nearly three goals per home game beggars belief but that’s the position Haugesund find themselves in. They’ve conceded lost of soft goals so far this season, even bizarrely losing 3-4 to impotent Stabaek so I don’t rate their chances too highly today. The attack of Sorum, Soderlund, and Djurdjic is working well for Haugesund – no complaints there. However, I don’t know if Kristiansen in goal has got tired of bailing his team all the time or if they’re just suffering from second season syndrome but Haugesund are not doing the business at home, which is potentially fatal long-term.
Unlike their hosts, Solskjaer’s Molde are doing the business at the moment. They’ve won four out of their last four games, three of which were away from home. Their most recent win was a 1-7 win at non-league side Tiller in the NM Cupen but it’s the manner of the victory that impresses me as Molde’s new signings are finally galvanising as a unit and scoring goals for fun. Defensively, they’re about as reliable as a chocolate teapot but in attack, this side has a lot of power. Thioune, Diouf, Angan, Chima, Hoseth, Berg Hestad – all very talented attacking players. Subsequently, Molde are well on their way to having one of the most powerful midfields in Norway, in my view, which can only benefit their rather youthful attack. Either way, football mastermind Solskjaer is very much getting his feet under the table at Molde and I can’t go against them when they’re scoring goals so easily.
I expect a lot of goals in this game but the value has to be in Molde winning at 7/5. They’re priced far too long for an Eliteserien heavyweight, irrespective of how hard it can be to win at Haugesund. I simply believe Molde will score more goals than their hosts today and the odds are good enough to take a chance on.
Verdict: Molde FK to win at 7/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Corinthians, IBV Vestmannaeyjar, Liepajas Metalurgs, Legia Warsaw, Slask Wroclaw, OFK Belgrade.
Recommended bets:
LOSC Lille, IBV Vestmannaeyjar, and Slask Wroclaw at over 2/1.
t a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Nations Cup:
Republic of Ireland vs Scotland (5) 2-1
International Friendlies:
Germany vs Uruguay (7) 2-1
Argentinian Primera Division:
Estudiantes de le Plata vs Independiente (6) 1-1
Boca Juniors vs Newells Old Boys (7) 2-1
Tigre vs Velez Sarsfield (5) 2-1
Olimpo vs River Plate (4) 0-1, at least one red card in this game
Brazilian Serie A:
Corinthians vs Coritiba (8) 2-1
Bahia vs Flamengo (6) 1-0
Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio (5) 1-1
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras (7) 2-1
Vasco da Gama vs America Mineiro (7) 1-0
Atletico Goianiense vs Fluminense (6) 1-0
Chilean Primera Division:
Universidad Catolica vs Colo Colo (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Union Espanola vs Union La Calera (7) 1-0
Colombian Primera A:
Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Deportivo Cali (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Once Caldas Manizales vs Millonarios Bogota (7) 2-1
Envigado vs La Equidad Bogota (5) 0-0
Danish Superligaen:
Randers vs Esbjerg (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Lyngby vs OB Odense (5) 2-2
FC Copenhagen vs Aalborg BK (4) 1-1
SonderjyskE vs Brondby (5) 1-0
Nordsjaelland vs Midtylland (6) 1-1
AC Horsens vs Silkeborg (6) 1-0
Danish 1st Division:
Bronshoj vs AB Copenhagen (5)
Hobro vs Fredericia (5)
Hvidovre vs Viborg (5)
Kolding vs Roskilde (6)
Vestjaelland vs Hjorring (6)
Vejle vs Skive (6)
HB Koge vs AGF Aarhus (5)
Naestved vs Fyn (7)
English League One:
Huddersfield Town vs Peterborough United (6) over 2.5 goals
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
HJK Helsinki vs JJK Jyvaskyla (7) 2-1
VPS Vaasa vs IFK Mariehamn (5) 1-0
Jaro Pietarsaari vs Inter Turku (6) 1-2
Finnish Ykkonen:
Viikingit Helsinki vs Jippo Joensuu (5)
PS Kemi Kings vs Hameenlinna (6)
FC Espoo vs HiFK Helsinki (5)
KooTeePee Kotka vs AC Oulu (6)
French Ligue 1:
Arles vs Sochaux (6) 0-1
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Montpellier HSC (5) 1-1
Stade Brestois vs Toulouse (6) 1-1
Stade Malherbe de Caen vs Olympique de Marseille (4) 2-1
LOSC Lille vs Stade Rennais (7) 2-0
Lorient vs Auxerre (5) 0-0
AS Monco vs Olympique Lyonnais (5) 1-1
AS Nancy-Lorraine vs Racing Club Lens (6) 2-1
Saint-Etienne vs Paris Saint-Germain (7) 1-1
Valenciennes vs OGC Nice (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Vikingur Reykjavik (8) 2-0
Fram Reykjavik vs KR Reykjavik (6) 0-1, at least one red card in this game
Valur Reyjkavik vs Breidablik Kopavogur (6) 1-0
Italian Serie B:
Grosseto vs Atalanta Bergamo (5)
Torino vs Padova (6) at least one red card in this game
Cittadella vs Pescara (4)
Varese vs Piacenza (5)
Sassuolo vs Reggina (7)
Albinoleffe vs Siena (5)
Ascoli vs Triestina (7)
Portosummaga vs Crotone (5)
Vicenza vs Empoli (5)
Livorno vs Frosinone (7)
Novara vs Modena (7)
Japanese J-League:
Cerezo Osaka vs Omiya Ardija (7) 0-0
Kawasaki Frontale vs Gamba Osaka (5) 1-1
Nagoya Grampus vs Avispa Fukuoka (6) 1-0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kashima Antlers (6) 1-1
Latvian Virsliga:
Liepajas Metalurgs vs Jelgava (8) 2-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
Groningen vs ADO Den Haag (6) over 2.5 goals
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Sogndal vs Valerenga Oslo (6) 1-1
Aalesund vs Viking Stavanger (6) 1-0
Haugesund vs Molde FK (5) 1-2
Start Kristiansand vs Stabaek (6) 2-1
Tromso vs Brann Bergen (6) 1-0
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Kongsvinger vs Ranheim (6)
Alta vs Hamarkameratene (6)
Bodo Glimt vs Bryne (4)
Hodd vs Sandnes Ulf (6)
Honefoss vs Strommen (4)
Mjondalen vs Lov-Ham Bergen (7)
Nybergsund vs Asker (7) over 2.5 goals
Sandefjord vs Randaberg (7)
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Nacional Asuncion vs 3 de Febrero (7) 1-0
Olimpia Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion (5) 2-2, at least one red card in this game
General Caballero vs Tacuary (4) 0-1
Sportivo Luqueno vs Cerro Porteno (5) 2-1
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce (6) 1-0
Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin (7) 2-1
Gornik Zabrze vs Widzew Lodz (5) 1-1
Wisla Krakow vs Polonia Warsaw (4) 0-1
Slask Wroclaw vs Arka Gdynia (8) 2-0
Legia Warsaw vs Polonia Bytom (8) 2-1
GKS Belchatow vs Cracovia Krakow (5) 1-1
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ruch Chorzow (6) 0-0
Polish Liga 1:
Nieciecza vs Pogon Szczecin (5)
Kolejarz Stroze vs Piast Gliwice (6) under 2.5 goals
Russian Premier League:
Zenit St.Petersburg vs Spartak Moscow (4) 2-2
Krylya Sovetov Samara vs Rostov-na-Donu (5) 0-1
CSKA Moscow vs Kuban’ Krasnodar (5) 1-1
FK Krasnodar vs Dinamo Moscow (5) 1-2
Serbian Super Liga:
Vojvodina Novi Sad vs Red Star Belgrade (6) 1-1
Rad Belgrade vs Javor Ivanjica (5) 1-0
Sevojno vs Partizan Belgrade (5) 1-1
Spartak Subotica vs Jagodina (6) 1-0
OFK Belgrade vs Cukaricki (9) 2-0
Indija vs Smederevo (5) 1-0
Borac Cacak vs BSK Borca (6) 1-0
Hajduk Kula vs Metalac GM (7) 1-0
Singaporean S-League:
Armed Forces vs Balestier Khalsa (7) 2-1
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Nafta Lendava vs Koper (4) 2-1
Celje vs Primorje (6) 1-0
Maribor vs Domzale (5) 1-1
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Triglav (7) 2-0
Gorica vs Rudar Velenje (6) 1-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Villarreal II vs Recreativo de Huelva (5)
Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Albacete (6)
Cordoba vs Las Palmas (5)
Numancia vs Girona (6)
Barcelona II vs Salamanca (4)
Cartagena vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (6)
Granada vs Elche (6)
Alcorcon vs Real Betis Balompie (4)
Huesca vs Real Valladolid (6)
Deportivo Xerez vs Celta de Vigo (5)
Swedish Superettan:
Angelholm vs Assyriska Sodertalje (6)
Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall (5)
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Fenix vs River Plate Montevideo (6) 1-0
El Tanque Sisley vs Miramar Misiones (7) 2-1
Rampla Juniors vs Danubio (5) 1-1
Racing Club Montevideo vs Tacuarembo (6) 1-0
Penarol vs Central Espanol (4) 1-1
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Deportivo Tachira vs Zamora (6) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!