Sunderland vs Aston Villa
FreeToday’s featured game is the encounter between Sunderland and Aston Villa in the English Premier League. Sunderland have struggled in recent times due to injuries and have won just once in their last five games. By contrast, visitors Aston Villa are in the form of their career and occupy fourth place in the Premier League table and are looking very strong indeed.
Hosts Sunderland have performed well under Steve Bruce but it’s still early days so they’re bound to miss big players for them and they’re missing what I personally consider to be one of their biggest players, which is holding midfielder Lee Cattermole. The reason that they miss him is because when he plays in the middle with Lorik Cana then sides find it hard to break through the centre of the park and not many sides are going to beat the Sunderland defence in the air when forced to go wide because of it. Sunderland also aren’t scoring as many as normal with just two goals scored in their last five games, winning just one of those games. Sunderland tend to be strong at home with only Chelsea, Manchester United, and Arsenal having won more home games than they have this season.
Visitors Aston Villa have surprised the Premier League by emerging strong than ever from a somewhat disappointing summer which saw the retirement of rock-solid centre-back Martin Laursen without him being replaced by someone I considered good enough to fill the void. I’d be the first to admit that I feared for Aston Villa when I saw this because they’d brought in Richard Dunne and lost a fantastically experienced defender. However, I’ll hold up my hands – the Irish defender has been excellent for Aston Villa and they’ve reaped the benefit of it with only Chelsea having conceded less goals than they have in the Premier League this year. Much is made of Aston Villa’s lethal attack but little is said about their defence which has conceded three goals in their last five Premier League games, a run which has seen them emerge from Old Trafford with a clean sheet, which is a rarity in itself. All in all, I’m very impressed with Aston Villa this season as they’re very good in attack and in defence with plenty of variety, experience, quality, and motivation. They’ve got a great manager and my only failing for them would be that they have a very thin squad so injuries will do them damage. However, they’ve got a strong squad for the visit to the North-East tonight and the football they’ve been playing has been superb so they should be able to do some damage tonight.
Having watched Aston Villa in their last match at Manchester United, I have to hold up my hands and say that they deserved their win. They’re a horrible team to defend against and Sunderland will be sorely tested against them, particularly as the hosts tonight aren’t scoring many goals. With the above in mind, it’s hard to see an Aston Villa side with tremendous momentum do anything but win this game as they’re more than capable of doing so.
Verdict: Aston Villa to win at 7/5.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Birmingham City vs Blackburn Rovers – home win at 6/5.
Hosts Birmingham City steamroller their way onwards with few sides being able to break them down! They’ve now won four games in a row now, conceding just two goals along the way. Birmingham’s strength without doubt is the fact that they don’t concede goals often. Indeed, only Chelsea can match their four goals conceded at home this season, which is some feat. Needless to say that their walls will all come tumbling down when they hit rocky form as they don’t score enough goals but for the time being, they’re certainly a reliable side when it comes to winning games efficiently. For some reason, Lee Bowyer is in the form of his career and is scoring goals for fun. If you wish to capitalise on that, then taking Lee Bowyer to score as Birmingham City win 1-0 is a remarkable 33/1, something that is certainly worth your consideration. Birmingham are basically a team of hard workers with some quality and an organised defence. This run will not last all season but I’m prepared to ride it whilst it does.
Visitors Blackburn Rovers are without a win in four games, losing one and then drawing their last three games consecutively. Blackburn Rovers are another side that don’t enjoy conceding goals in typical Sam Allardyce style so this game is sure to be a cracker if you’re blind for the neutral(!) However, Blackburn’s away form is what convinces me that Birmingham can do the job here tonight with the visitors having lost six out of eight away games, leaking nearly three goals per game on average. Much like Birmingham, their football is based around tenacity and the utilisation of the few quality players they have. However, Blackburn aren’t being as ruthless as Birmingham as they’ve failed to score in all three of their last three Premier League games, which is something I do feel is going to count against them tonight.
All in all, there’s very little between these two sides and they play such similar football to each other than this game could conceivably end as a draw. However, Birmingham’s momentum versus Blackburn’s leaky defence and poor away form says that there has to be some value in the home win tonight.
Verdict: Birmingham City to win at 6/5.
Manchester United vs Wolverhampton Wanderers – under 2.5 goals at 5/4.
After a disappointing defeat at home to Aston Villa, Manchester United are looking to bounce back against a resilient Wolverhampton Wanderers at Old Trafford. United’s biggest problem last match was their final ball, something which just didn’t happen for them, really. Rooney was struggling to link up with his team-mates and for some inane reason, Ferguson decided to bench Berbatov, one of the best players at unlocking defences in the league, in my opinion. When the languid Bulgarian striker came on it was too little too late as United were shut off by a solid Villa defence. Wolves will look to bring a similar approach to this game although with less counter-attacking options. That said, what Wolves lack in attack they make up for in resilience as they look to further their run of two consecutive wins, one of which was a highly impressive win at Tottenham Hotspur last match without even conceding. Although Wolves are far from a class side, they don’t concede nearly as many goals as you’d think they might and tend to put up a good fight against any side they face so expect a tough match for United tonight. I’d personally stay away from the handicaps as United are really finding it hard to break sides down when Rooney isn’t on his game but I think they’ll manage to get a goal or two from somewhere. I’ve got a scoreline of 1-0 or 2-0 in my head so I think taking under 2.5 goals is probably the best value you’ll find in this game tonight.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/4.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
FIFA World Club Cup:
Pohang Steelers vs Estudiantes De La Plata (8) 1-2
English Premier League:
Sunderland vs Aston Villa (7) 0-1
Birmingham City vs Blackburn Rovers (7) 1-0
Bolton Wanderers vs West Ham United (6) 1-1
Manchester United vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (8) under 2.5 goals
English FA Cup:
Stockport County vs Torquay United (5) 1-1
French Ligue 1:
Valenciennes vs Auxerre (6) 2-1
Scottish Premier League:
Dundee United vs Rangers (4) 1-1
Welsh Premier League:
Porthmadog vs The New Saints (9) 1-3
Bangor City vs Bala Town (7) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!