Tampere United vs FC Lahti
FreeToday’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga game between sleeping giants Tampere United and relegation-threatened FC Lahti. Hosts Tampere have had a poor start to their domestic campaign but are starting to come around thanks to players returning from injury and a momentum boost as a result. FC Lahti are struggling at both ends of the field and their results reflect that so I doubt the longevity of their cause, particularly if they fall behind.
Tampere’s home record this season has been hindered due to a poor start but rest assured that they are a good home side. Their good home form was their only saving grace in the Veikkausliiga last season and I expect it to play a big role in their campaign this year. Tampere are unbeaten in five consecutive games, winning three times and drawing twice along the way. They’ve scored ten times during those five games – an average of two goals per game – and won at Inter Turku, drawn at Jaro Pietarsaari, and overcome Haka Valkeakoski at home so I’ve been suitably impressed by Tampere committing a spurt of form that I frankly didn’t think they were capable of due to a lack of quality in their side following the financial difficulties. However, the emergence of some promising youngsters (i.e. Juha Pirinen) and the collaboration with old hands (i.e. Jari Niemi) is starting to blossom. Tampere still don’t have arguably their best player Tomi Petrescu (a good Finnish name – not Romanian in the slightest(!)) fully fit so there’s more to come from this side. Ari Hjelm’s got them playing good ol’ Tampere United football again and whilst they’re scoring goals as they are currently, they’re a threat to every side in the division which makes the trip to the Ratinan Stadion a feared one currently.
Visitors FC Lahti are struggling as I expected them to at the start of the season although I’ll credit them as they’re proving to be harder to beat than I’d initially anticipated. FC Lahti have scored just once in their last five games consecutively in all competitions, however, which explains why they’re struggling so much, losing three times and drawing twice along the way. Their draw at HJK Helsinki of late was an impressive result although Lahti did miss some gilt-edged chances during that game, thus emphasising the above point. However, despite fielding an under-strength squad last match at home to JJK Jyvaskyla last match, they still failed to find the net (again!) against their ten-men opponents so Lahti have got to be concerned in attack. They’re usually quite solid in defence but there’s little point to that if you don’t score goals and Lahti certainly aren’t scoring goals at the present time. Only a very out-of-form IFK Mariehamn have scored less goals than FC Lahti have this season and Lahti’s top goalscorer is unbelievably ancient wizard Jari Litmanen, who at thirty-nine years of age has scored more goals in just four starts for FC Lahti than anyone else in the side, including experienced Brazilian striker Rafael! It’s just not good enough and I expect Lahti to struggle today as they just don’t score goals, which is a rather big problem, really!
I really have to favour a rejuvenated Tampere to win this game today, particularly on their own turf. They’re highly-motivated, driven by excellent recent form, and are scoring goals for fun currently. They’ve got the right blend of everything in their side currently to continue this momentum burst at least for a little while and they’ve got the perfect game to build upon it with. I don’t expect FC Lahti to score today although Tampere’s defence is certainly one of the few defences in the Veikkausliiga bad enough to concede against them but with the hosts in such excellent goalscoring form, you have to favour them to win this game at decent odds of 5/6.
Verdict: Tampere United to win at 5/6.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Viborg vs AC Horsens – draw at 12/5.
Boring Viborg hosts AC Horsens today in an utterly pointless game which should see the hosts bore their opponents to death whilst they weakly celebrate their new crown as the champions of the Danish 1st Division from a comatose state.
Viborg are a good side, don’t get me wrong, but their lack of goalscoring (and even goals being conceded) makes them such a tedious side. The fact that they’ve only lost once at home this season and that only AB Copenhagen and Fredericia have conceded less goals at home than they have should show you how strong they are on their own turf. They simply don’t score goals, which is a shame, because if they did they’d frankly be one of the best sides in the division and would claim their rightful place in the Superligaen again. Unsurprisingly, being unable to find the net or concede goals, Viborg have drawn more games than anyone else in this division, drawing three out of their last four home games. A draw appears to be the best that they can hope for nowadays, which is sad but true. Visitors AC Horsens have had a great campaign and have duly won the title in deserving fashion with three games remaining. Their away form has been immaculate and I’d fancy them to win this one if they had reason to but frankly they don’t. Dogged tenacity has dragged them through difficult games this season but they’ll need more of that to overcome a difficult Viborg side that are more than capable of matching them today and I just don’t think they’ll have it as some kind of anti-climax kicks in for the champions.
Interestingly enough, Horsens have only failed to win three away games this season, which is very impressive. However, what interests me about this is that they’ve failed to beat Lyngby, AB Copenhagen, and Vejle. The first two sides are incredibly strong at home as ever and the third side are also generally strong at home despite an unflattering season where yet again they fail to show their true potential. Viborg haven’t shown their true potential this year but they’re damn hard to beat at home, much like Lyngby (despite what Skive may have indicated the other day!) and AB Copenhagen so I have to favour the draw here today at generous odds of 12/5. I’d have preferred the lay option as Viborg may even win this one but the bookies have cleverly priced the outcome too short for my liking so I’ll give the lay a miss today.
Luxembourg vs Faroe Islands – away win at 23/10.
Your first impressions? I’ll imagine that they’re “what the fuck?” and perhaps you’re right!
However, I’m going with the away win here. I don’t care to dig through Faroese past to see if they’ve ever won away from home before but there’s a first time for everything and I think this is as good a chance as they’ll get in the forthcoming years. This game is a friendly but these two sides are fighting to get above each other if only in the mental rankings of each individual side so that they’re not “minnows”, or at least not as much minnows as they used to be.
Only one thing has driven me to back Faroe Islands today and that’s manager Brian Kerr. I’ve been so impressed with the work he’s done of late with them that it’s unreal. They’ve become hard to beat to a serious level now – they’re not far off pulling off a surprise and I daresay the next qualification round for the international sides may provide the platform for them. I mean, this Faroe Islands side has scored in three out of their last five games, a record unheard of in previous years! Two of those games have been away from home too against Austria and Romania respectively so they didn’t play some no-hopers like San Marino. Faroe Islands even managed a virtually heroic 2-1 win at home to a good Lithuania side and have put up some very good displays against the likes of France in Torshavn, where the visitors won by a solitary goal. Defensively, Kerr has got the Faroe Islands a lot stronger than they were and has even increased their potency. They’re a threat from set pieces and the experience of keeper Mikkelsen and striker Holst is proving invaluable for Kerr and co. so I really have to give the Faroese side a chance today.
Luxembourg are no mugs either, much improving their own status within European football of late by also being hard to beat. That’s what makes this game interesting despite it likely to be boring as hell as far as viewing goes. However, this Luxembourg side has lost at home to Azerbaijan lately and have drawn at home to Iceland so I’m not overwhelmed by them currently. They’re not going to roll over and die here but I fancy the unfancied visitors to cause them a lot of problems today and even possibly want it more due to their strong run of displays, irrespective of their outcomes.
This is a very risky call so do approach with caution but I do genuinely believe the Faroese side has a chance to win this one today. I feel they’ll want it more because of their good displays, they’ve got a better manager, and Luxembourg aren’t playing as well as they can at the moment so I feel there’s potentially some hidden value in the away win today.
Verdict: Faroe Islands to win at 23/10.
Slovenia vs New Zealand – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
There’s got to be some value in going under today! New Zealand have already displayed in recent games that their World Cup tactics will be the old faithful “men behind the ball” routine and I can’t blame them for that. They do it well too, with players experienced in both the English and Australian leagues respectively, which are two strong tactical leagues. New Zealand offer a little goal threat from set pieces but little else, in my opinion, so I don’t see them scoring in Maribor today. This is Slovenia’s send-off to the World Cup for their fans so they’ll be keen to win this one. However, despite Slovenia’s relentless enthusiasm and well-organised displays, they’re a tad short on goalscoring ability, which again I expect to play a big part today. Slovenia’s pacey options in attack i.e. Birsa, Ljubijankic, Matavz will cause problems in a steady but non-too-pacey New Zealand backline so I do think Slovenia can score today, particularly if the likes of Stevanovic and Koren are pulling the strings from the middle of the park.
I don’t want an early goal here and I’m counting on New Zealand not scoring here. However, odds of 4/5 are worth the shot because neither of these two sides are prolific and both are well-organised defensively so under 2.5 goals looks the natural selection which isn’t more favoured by the bookies, surprisingly.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
France vs China – under 2.5 goals at 13/8.
These odds are just too good to be true! France, Europe’s most impotent side, host a Chinese side that are poor in front of goal but well-organised as the back. Outcome? Home win, low-scoring game. China’s last visit to Europe saw them suffer a respectable 2-0 defeat at Portugal, another side that huff and puff a lot but just don’t score goals. France have only got one real goalscorer in their side – Anelka – so I’m not too concerned about the “French” attack. They’ve failed to impress in their previous two friendlies in a narrow win against Costa Rica and a draw at former colony Tunisia so I don’t see how today’s game will be any different. I don’t expect China to score at all but I expect them to close France down to an unbelievable degree. I expect France to break through the resilient Chinese wall at somepoint because they’re scabby twats like that they always do but the fact that no side has scored more than twice against China in their last sixteen consecutive games should tell you that an impotent side should struggle against them. They’ve played Japan, Senegal, and Portugal during that run and prior to that run they’d kept a similar record despite facing Germany and Iran. This side will not lie down so I can see a very narrow France win here but under 2.5 goals at those odds look a real bargain to me today.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 13/8.
Accumulator fodder:
France, Mordovia Saransk, FK Krasnodor.
Recommended bets:
Tampere United and FK Krasnodor at 3/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Israel U21 vs Sweden U21 (6) 1-1
Danish 1st Division:
Viborg vs AC Horsens (6)
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Tampere United vs FC Lahti (7) 2-0
Finnish Ykkonen:
HJK II vs PoPa Pori (5)
International Friendlies:
Luxembourg vs Faroe Islands (5) 0-1
Ivory Coast vs Japan (6) 1-both sides to score (played in Switzerland)
Slovenia vs New Zealand (7) under 2.5 goals
France vs China (8) under 2.5 goals
Sudan vs Palestine (5) 1-0
Italian Play-Out:
Padova vs Triestina (6)
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Banga Gargzdai vs Tauras Taurage (7) 2-1
Russian Division 1:
Mordovia Saransk vs Avangard Kursk (8) under 2.5 goals
FK Nizhnyi Novgorod vs Salyut Belgorod (5)
Shinnik Yaroslavl’ vs Kuban Krasnodor (6)
Dinamo Bryansk vs FK Khimki (6) under 2.5 goals
Dinamo St.Petersburg vs KamAZ Nab Chelny (5)
Zhemchuzhina Sochi vs Luch-Energiya Vladivostok (5)
FK Krasnodor vs Energiya Khabarovsk (8)
Baltika Kaliningrad vs Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod (6)
Singaporean S-League:
Armed Forces vs Gombak United (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Enjoy your free betting tips!