TFT Issue 1008!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
As ever, approach each tip with caution and intelligence. Every tip has the potential to win or to lose; it depends how the team plays. My advice would always be to watch the games (where possible) and bet in-play because you’ve got an idea of what should happen in the game (based on the preview) and you can judge if things are going the way that they should or not. In-play betting is a very valuable tool that is not to be overlooked! If you have any questions then feel free to ask.
Bankers
I’d be surprised if they all win as betting isn’t that simple but these are the bets that really should come in. You know it’s a weird day when the majority of them don’t come in!
No bankers today, sorry!
Featured game
Trakai vs Kruoja Pakruojis – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the A Lyga game between Trakai and Kruoja Pakruojis.
Newly-promoted Trakai have stunned Lithuania with some incisive displays since arriving in the A Lyga. They’ve played without fear and have attacked freely, which has been good to see. They’ve paid for it on occasions but they’ve also managed to upset some big sides in the process so it’s wise not to underestimate the newbies. The A Lyga isn’t the hardest league in the world to break into and impress in but they’ve still done it admirably and opposing sides are beginning to recognise that. I like the way that Trakai play football, though. They’re good to watch because although they’re somewhat basic in their style, it’s still effective nonetheless and they religious believe in their own style so it makes them a tough nut to crack. Sides have exposed Trakai’s weaknesses lately, though, so Trakai aren’t winning games as easily. Personally, I think that they’re priced rather short to beat a good Kruoja side and I don’t believe the bookies have judged this game correctly. I believe that Trakai can beat Kruoja, especially with Kruoja traditionally playing a high defensive line, but there’s no way that Trakai should be at evens to beat them. That’s a story for another day, though.
Kruoja were a bit unlucky against Suduva in their last game. They outsmarted them, for the most part. They were caught out on the break a few times because of their defensive line but their attacking was good and they looked a threat for the majority of the time. They tired a little toward the end of the game because Suduva are an athletic side if nothing else and Kruoja are still getting used to being one of the better A Lyga sides out there. Quality-wise, though, there is simply no doubt in my mind that Kruoja can win this game against Trakai. Trakai have good team spirit and cohesion but Kruoja have better individuals and better match-winners as a result. Beniusis and Vezevicius can win this game on their own if Kruoja approach it correctly but I doubt they’ll do it without conceding, given their defensive laxity. Trakai are more clinical than Suduva; they will score on any breaks that they’re given. Kruoja can score goals too, though – that’s what makes this one interesting.
Kruoja are the better side from the two but Trakai are arguably stronger in organisation and understanding. I don’t believe Trakai should be as short as they are but I refuse to enter the 1×2 market from a betting perspective because there are too many variants. However, I do like the idea of this one going over 2.5 goals at 4/5, especially with both sides likely to score.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Additional game
Elfsborg Boras vs Helsingborg – lay Elfsborg Boras at 10/11.
Playing in Boras is one of those trips that clubs in the Allsvenskan don’t want to make. It’s a horribly flat artificial pitch that few sides other than Elfsborg have any joy on. Elfsborg are used to playing on it, of course – that’s their main advantage, to be fair. Quality-wise, I would put them behind Malmo FF, Helsingborg, and AIK Solna (perhaps barring Elfsborg’s midfield) but their home advantage is massive and it counts over the course of the season. Elfsborg very seldom lose games at home, simply put, and it’s going to be a tall order for Helsingborg to win here too.
However, I do expect Helsingborg to get a result here and I’ll explain why. Elfsborg are too predictable, in a nutshell. They’ve been bland and and boring for about a season-and-a-half now and I find it really hard to take them seriously. It’s perhaps a shade dangerous of me to be so skeptical about their abilities (or lack of) because they’re an experienced side and they have some good players in their ranks. I mean, Claessen, Hult, and especially timeless veteran Svensson are all very good players. They add a lot of attacking power to Elfsborg’s midfield and that makes a big difference to the team. What I don’t like is how much quality they’ve lost pre-season, quality that they’ve just not replaced. Svensson is still a classy playmaker and Nilsson is a decent finisher but Svensson has lost a lot of stamina for obvious reasons and Nilsson has lost the edge on his acceleration, which used to be his strongest area by far. Bangura’s loan deal ended, Ishizaki left, Keene left, Prodell isn’t especially good etc. etc. There are too many negatives here for my liking. I really respect how much of a solid unit Elfsborg are because they’re well-organised, they’re composed, and they’re hard to beat. However, they’re not good at beating sides now and a good side like Helsingborg should cause them a lot of problems by simply holding their ground.
Helsingborg have had a mixed start to their Allsvenskan campaign but they’re still one of the top sides in Sweden and they’ll find their groove in due course. Simovic’s absence has been their Achilles Heel so far this season and I don’t honestly know if he can play here. Judging by the odds movement on the Elfsborg win, I suspect that Simovic is still out here but his importance for Helsingborg is in regard to them winning games. My interest in Helsingborg here is in them avoiding defeat so I’m not too concerned by his absence although I have to confess that I’d prefer Helsingborg at 100% strength for obvious reasons. However, what Elfsborg are going to find hard to handle is rapid Ghanaian winger Accam. If this fella plays to his full potential then he’ll destroy Elfsborg because he’s too good to be playing at this level. I’m surprised he wasn’t snapped up during the break but then again, I suppose he does still have a lot to learn about his decision-making at key times as that’s his biggest weakness. His natural ability to dribble players and make things happen makes him the most dangerous player in the Allsvenskan, as far as I am concerned. Smarason, Alvaro Santos, and Lindstrom are all dangerous players too, albeit in different ways. Helsingborg have a good structure to their team and although they need a few more weeks before they’re more solid at the back, I think that their general shape is good enough to frustrate a predictable Elfsborg outfit and with the danger they possess on the break with Accam, I really fancy Helsingborg to get a result here.
Sadly, I don’t have any team news for this game so if Accam is out for some reason then I’m going to completely jump ship here and leave the game well alone. However, if he does play then I find plenty of value in laying Elfsborg at 10/11.
Verdict: Lay Elfsborg Boras at 10/11.
Team news
German Bundesliga:
Eintracht Frankfurt – Ozer, Anderson, Oczipka, Flum, Kittler, and Rode are absent.
Hannover 96 – Aogo, Fuchs, Howedes, Kirchhoff, Uchida, Clemens, Hoger, and Klingeburg are absent.