TFT Issue 104!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Haka Valkeakoski vs IFK Mariehamn – away win at 13/10.
Today’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga encounter between Haka Valkeakoski and IFK Mariehamn. The hosts are expected to battle against relegation this season whereas the visitors were tipped for a mid-table finish until they signed half of now-removed Tampere United’s team, which has subsequently pushed them into the category of “dark horses” for the Veikkausliiga this season.
First of all – Haka. They were set to become the next big thing last season with hefty financial backing and a lot of good players joined them. However, things happened, the financial backing was removed, and suddenly we have a virtually bankrupt Haka side. Subsequently, Haka sold pretty much all of their good players and all that remains is a thin squad that can only defend, really. It’s hard to say at this stage of the season who will go down but Haka are definitely contenders due to their lack of firepower. They won 1-2 in Pietarsaari at Jaro last match in a game with few chances. Credit to Haka, though – they scored two good goals, the first from just outside the box and the second was a delightful lob from just inside the eighteen yard box from Irish midfielder Robinson. As you’d expect with all Haka games, however, there were very few chances and the scoreline was flattering, really – 0-0 would have been more apt. In the opening Veikkausliiga game, Haka drew a mind-numbingly awful game with VPS Vaasa 0-0 – that just doesn’t bear thinking about but you do get a picture of what Haka are generally like. They’re utterly bereft of talent and although I’d never underestimate their cohesion, the man-motivational skills of boss Ristila, nor their “park the bus” tactics, the fact remains that they’re going to lose more games than they’ll win this season as they just don’t have the firepower to make it otherwise.
IFK Mariehamn were a side that I personally had down to struggle this season until Tampere United went bust and sold all their players. IFK Mariehamn were quick off the mark and signed stiker Kangaskolkka, playmaker Emet, midfielder Vartto, and defender Kojola, which has ultimately turned them into a capable side. Emet will be the nature replacement for Lahitie and Kangaskolkka will try and fill the void of goals left by Gruborovics, who has signed for JJK Jyvaskyla. They also acquired Toni Lehtinen, who is a decent striker on his day but hasn’t been consistent for some years now. On a positive note, new midfielder Forsell looked very good against RoPS Rovaniemi last match, bagging twice along the way and IFK could have a gem in their ranks there. IFK need to integrate all of these players fully but they do have a good – and most importantly, they have a large – squad. Don’t forget that the Veikkausliiga is longer than normal this year and most clubs in it don’t have quality in-depth but IFK certainly do.
What to make of IFK thus far? They won a pretty dire game at MyPa 0-2 in a game that probably didn’t deserve two goals but fair play to IFK for taking their chances. Their 3-3 with RoPS last match was as far from deserving of a 3-3 as you could possible imagine with goals coming from full-backs going walkabout, samba goalkeeping, and a general lack of defending. IFK should really have won the game but a mystery penalty for RoPS gave them a way back into the game and they subsequently stole a goal at the end to level things up. I assure you, though – RoPS are not capable of scoring three goals without bad defending so don’t read much into it. The big positive is that IFK are scoring goals freely and looking dangerous whilst doing so. I’m a bit concerned that Lyyski isn’t playing his new Tampere recruits from the start yet, especially talented Kangaskolkka, but he’s certainly integrating them so perhaps they’ll start today. Either way, IFK are a lot better than their hosts and irrespective of whether they concede or not, there’s more than enough firepower here for them to outscore their hosts.
Therefore, I’m all over the away win here. Haka defend well but that’s all they do. If they score here then it’ll be from a set piece, a penalty, or a defensive howler. IFK have a lot of variety in attack and I expect them to break through Haka sooner or later. For me, there’s value in the away win at 13/10.
Verdict: IFK Mariehamn to win at 13/10.
Additional game
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Legia Warsaw – away win at 13/10.
Ok, approach this one very carefully, guys!
The reason I say that is because Legia spontaneously turn up from one day to another. If they turn up, they’ll win this game. If they don’t, they could conceivably lose this game 10-0!
So why am I taking the risk here? Well, I’ve seldom come across a better opportunity to go against Jagiellonia at home, that’s why. Following a humiliating 1-3 defeat at home against Widzew Lodz and a 2-0 defeat at Polonia Warsaw, Jagiellonia boss Probierz handed in resignation at the club as he felt that “second place was unsatisfactory” and that he didn’t want to be in charge any longer. All seems pretty honest and fair, right? Wrong. Jagiellonia refused his resignation so Probierz is still in charge of this team until the end of the season, which nobody is very happy about, really. The players are massively demoralised, as you can tell from their three consecutive defeats. Jaga are nothing without their solid defence to fall back on but eight goals conceded in three games tells you where their defence is at right now. It gets worse for Jaga, however – they miss their best defender Cionek for this game, as well as number one Sandomierski. Jaga just don’t look interested any longer and I don’t see why Probierz is as he’s made it blatantly clear that he wants to leave so far the remainder of this Ekstraklasa campaign, Jagiellonia are sitting ducks, in my view.
Legia welcome back youngster Wolski which means that for the first time in a long time, they’ve got a largely full squad to choose from. Legia’s strange form patterns aren’t solely because of injury problems but it’s fair to say that they’ve not helped. Nonetheless, I expect a good display from Legia today. Skorza’s teams always seem to have the stamina to do well at the end of the season and Legia are no exception with no defeats in four games, winning two twice and drawing twice along the way, not to mention winning the Puchar Polski. I initially questioned the motivation of Legia here given that they’ve already secured European football next season via the Puchar Polski but I have overlooked Legia’s greed for money. Legia are a club founded on money and thus they value it rather highly. Naturally, the higher a club finishes in the table, the more money they get – therein lies their motivation. Rather usefully, Legia have no pressure to attain such a high league placing, however. That lack of pressure allows them to play their game and if they do that then they’ll win the game because they’re the better of these two sides by some distance.
Therefore, my call here is the away win. There is risk in it but given how hapless Jaga are and given the talented players that Legia have, not to mention their recent form, the away win is worth a punt here.
Team news – Jagiellonia Bialystok miss Cionek and Sandomierski whereas Legia Warsaw miss Choto and Astiz.
Verdict: Legia Warsaw to win at 13/10.