TFT Issue 109…again! (freebie)
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
In case you missed it yesterday, this membership issue is free because I’m utterly furious with Suduva’s couldn’t-care-less attitude in their game with Atlantas yesterday so let’s hope for a more profitable day.
Incidentally, you don’t need to tell me if my tips lose, guys. Unbelievably, I’m more than aware of that! If you want to criticise me then please feel free to, as long as you back it up, but I really don’t need informing that my tip has lost, thank you. I’d love to pick winners every day for you guys but that’s simply not possible – apologies if that’s what you expected!
Featured game
MyPa Anjalankoski vs RoPS Rovaniemi – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the Finnish Veikkausliiga encounter between out-of-form MyPa Anjalankoski and newly-promoted RoPS Rovaniemi. Only the visitors were expected to struggle in the current Veikkausliiga campaign pre-season but from what MyPa have shown so far this season, they’re in even more trouble than their opponents.
Only MyPa and Haka have failed to score at home in the Veikkausliiga this season and would you believe it – Haka are one of the favourites to struggle this season! Why not MyPa too? They’re a big name in Finnish football, admittedly – they’re not with the likes of HJK but they’re not far behind. However, in terms of quality, they’re some distance behind nowadays, unfortunately. Defensively, they’re still quite able and you’ll rarely see them annihlated. However, they’re so dire in front of goal that it’s unreal. I think their record thus far is a tad harsh as they’ve had four hard games in a row but even so – there should still be goals scored. Losing against good sides is an occupational hazard; not even threatening their goals is just poor. MyPa aren’t threatening goals, full stop. It’s not like they’re having lots of chances and missing them – they’re literally not creating enough. Poor Mikko Innanen in attack is their only reliable threat with his pace and experience but it’s just not enough against the better sides in the Veikkausliiga. Maybe that’ll change against the likes of RoPS but I doubt it – there’s a lot of sides in this division that won’t struggle to keep MyPa out at the moment. Their strongest area is midfield whilst Okkonen patrols it alongside Saxman but depth and attacking quality is a massive problem for MyPa. Their only threat on goal is coming from set pieces and subsequently, you can expect a lot of low-scoring games involving them this season.
RoPS Rovaniemi are in a very similar position to MyPa, although their record doesn’t show it anywhere near as glaringly. I still maintain that RoPS’ goalscoring record flatters them so far this season with most of their goals coming from goalmouth scrambles and set pieces. Mexican hitman Rivera looks a breath of fresh air in an otherwise stale attack but we can expect that frontline to be bolstered when the transfer window opens as RoPS do have money to utilise. RoPS’ sole strength is defending at the present time with German youngster Gotzl continuing to impress at the back. RoPS have quite a youthful side, overall, and their energy and tenacity reflects that in each game. However, they lack depth, they lack finesse, and they lack experience so I expect them to struggle against the drop this season, especially with lunatic goalkeeper Nyom in net.
I think RoPS can be happier with how their Veikkausliiga campaign has gone than MyPa can be thus far. I still think both of these two sides will be vying with one another to avoid the drop to the Ykkonen at the end of the season but I wouldn’t like to say who will survive it. Either way, I think we’re in for a mind-numbingly boring game here because I don’t see anyone on the field that can electrify this game and inspire a win. Maybe we’ll see a winner here but I fancy this game ending in a low-scoring draw. I’ll be amazed if it’s over 2.5 goals because I simply cannot see where the goals will come from when both sides specialise in defending and present very little goal threat so odds of 9/10 on under 2.5 goals here really intrigue me.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Additional game
Inter Turku vs VPS Vaasa – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
A lot of people are overestimating Inter Turku already and that’s such a dangerous mistake to make. Yes, quality-wise, they’re a top three side in the Veikkausliiga every year. Yes, they’re fantastic at keeping the ball and keeping opponents out. However, they are not a good goalscoring side. It was a good idea for Dragtsma to re-sign Croatian hitman Abramovic as his experience and finesse will help cover for Timo Furuholm when he inevitably gets injured. Furuholm is their best striker by a mile though – they’re absolutely useless without him. Inter Turku can pass their way around most sides in this league but they cannot and will not score many goals on a regular basis. I fail to see the point in backing a team like this to win a game of football when they seldom look like scoring more than one goal in a game with the case in point being their 1-1 draw at home to MyPa Anjalankoski last match, a game they should have won on paper. A lot has been made of their 4-0 win against Honka but I still maintain it flatters them – they took their chances against ten men well but Honka matched them for large periods of that game. Inter Turku just don’t score many goals and to succeed in betting on Finnish football, you have to be aware of that.
Visitors VPS Vaasa are your average Veikkausliiga side. In fact, I’d call them the epitome of average sides in this division because nobody does it better than they do. They defend as one, they have little interest in scoring goals from anywhere but set pieces, and they’re a good bunch of players that are used to playing with one another without any real stars. Bernhardt in midfield is a good leader and somewhat essential to their play but they’re not a great side overall; don’t expect much from them at any time! That said, it’s wise not to underestimate them either. In Vaasa, I’ll rarely go against them because they nullify sides well. They hosted HJK Helsinki in their last home game and although the scoreline ended 0-2, the game was barely worthy of a single goal. HJK created a few good chances and VPS created one good chance but only a swift counter-attack and deadly finish from Seb Sorsa on the wing won the game for HJK with their second goal being the sucker-punch against a VPS side whose heads dropped. VPS will come to Turku knowing that if they defend well enough, they can get a point here and having seen how Inter Turku fared against MyPa Anjalankoski last match, I wouldn’t bet against it.
Is it any surprise that the last three visits of VPS to Turku have gone under 2.5 goals? None whatsoever. The games in Vaasa tend to be different as there’s more onus on VPS to attack but there’s none on them to attack here. I’d hate to enter the 1×2 market here, much as Inter Turku should win it – there’s just no value there. However, under 2.5 goals looks too generously priced at 9/10 so that’s my call here.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Brommapojkarna vs Osters – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
In case you missed it, today is absolutely the national day of under 2.5 goals betting in Scandinavia!
Recently-relegated Brommapojkarna have failed to set the Superettan alight since being relegated from the Allsvenskan despite having some good players. They play well, they’re a good unit, but they lack the killer touch that sides like Assyriska or Landskrona possess. They’ve got a good level of depth in their team, which will aid their promotion push, but they’re not blessed in front of goal as we saw a great deal last season. Nonetheless, they are a nightmare to face at the Grimsta, hence them winning twice and drawing once at home already in the Superettan this season. Two out of their three home games have gone under 2.5 goals already and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the same occur again today.
Visitors Osters are new to the Superettan but they’ve adapted surprisingly well. Indeed, their momentum from promotion has carried them into a three-game unbeaten run on the road, albeit via three successive draws. They’ve nullified sides well away from home, most impressively of all in Sodertalje against Assyriska, who are arguably the most potent side in the Superettan. Osters don’t really have the quality nor the depth to maintain this level all season long but whilst it lasts, I’m happy to take advantage of it. Blomqvist-Zampi and Soderberg have been constant threats in attack so I expect Brommapojkarna to be on their guard here and play a more cautious game than they usually play at home.
Therefore, I have to consider the likelihood of this game going under 2.5 goals pretty high here. Osters will come for the draw as Brommapojkarna are one of the biggest sides in the division and it’s a feather in their cap if they manage it. The hosts expect themselves to win at home and I do think they’ll edge it but I just don’t see many goals in it. For me, unders is again generously priced at 9/10.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Brage vs Assyriska Sodertalje – away win at evens.
Assyriska are just a better side than Brage, to be blunt. They have a great deal of firepower in Kusi-Asare and Marklund and you can see the benefits of that already with Assyriska winning five times in six Superettan games. They’ve played three away games already, winning all of them, and averaging scoring over two goals per away game. Maybe they’ve just played shit sides though, eh? No. They’ve played title rivals Landskrona BoIS and a sturdy GIF Sundsvall side, winning both games, so don’t underestimate how strong this side is this year, irrespective of the fact that they sold Haddad pre-season. There’s a lot of ability in this side and although they’ve got a lot to learn at the back, I rate them an awful lot in attack. Brage have two ways of playing football; long ball and their passing game. Their passing game worked well last year but they’re in second season syndrome now; sides know about it. Brage won’t be as effectual this year, in my view, especially in games like this. If they play long ball here then they won’t score and Assyriska will. If they play their passing game here then they might well score but Assyriska will score more. Either way, Brage are fucked, in my view. Odds of evens are good enough to take on Assyriska outscoring any side in the division at the moment, especially a Brage side that can’t defend (six goals conceded over three home games!).
Verdict: Assyriska Sodertalje to win at evens.