TFT Issue 111!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Avoid Crotone vs Grosseto today – it’s rumoured to be fixed.
Double chance
1X:
Shakhtyor Soligorsk
Flamengo
Beroe
Universidad de Chile
Once Caldas Manizales
Dinamo Zagreb
Bohemians 1905
Jablonec
Nomme Kalju
Flora Tallinn
Gamba Osaka
Spartak Moscow
Partizan Belgrade
Slovan Bratislava
Koper
Real Madrid
Real Valladolid
Servette
Bursaspor
Karpaty Lviv
Shakhtar Donetsk
Featured game
Legia Warsaw vs Wisla Krakow – away win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Today’s featured game is the old derby in the Polish Ekstraklasa between Legia Warsaw and Wisla Krakow. With both sides having already secured European football for next season, this game is somewhat redundant so do approach it with caution.
However, I am still very interested in backing Wisla with draw no bet cover here. Why? Well, Legia Warsaw had a strange trip to Bialystok lately to face Jagiellonia and ended the game with nine men. The two men dismissed were captain and leader Vrdoljak and defensive midfielder Borysiuk, which leaves Legia with nobody to sit in front of the back four today and nobody to lead the team. Additionally, Spanish centre-back Astiz and his fellow defender Choto both miss the game too, not to mention lanky target man Hubnik and two of his stand-ins – Chinyama and Efir. To say that Legia are under-strength here is an understatement, to be blunt. Striker Bruno Mezenga hasn’t adapted well to life in Poland and it’s been pointed out innumerate times by the press and that pressure is clearly visible when he is seen on the field – he just wants to go back home, I think! So what does that leave Legia with? A predictable attack, all their creativity from Radovic and Rybus, and a defence that couldn’t keep cows from walking past them. You know what? I don’t fancy Legia here!
Visitors Wisla have already won the Ekstraklasa thanks to a derby day win against Cracovia Krakow and spirits are naturally very high. However, given that their European campaign starts in July, boss Maaskant has already stated that he will rest some players for this game and the names suggested are goalkeeper Pareiko and Slovenian attacker Kirm. I still expect a minimum of 80% of Wisla’s usual starting eleven to play in the old derby, however, as this game does matter to their fans. Pacey Malecki is a doubt but with Meliksson still in the side for sure, I’m not too concerned here, especially given Legia’s absentees. The key to Wisla’s team is Genkov; if he starts, they have a very good chance of winning this game. If he doesn’t, they may well draw it, so it may be worth your while to wait until the line-ups are published if you can take shorter odds.
Either way, taking Wisla with draw no bet cover really appeals to me here as I just don’t see them losing. They’ve got more than enough quality in their team to take advantage of Legia’s many important absentees all over the field and I can see them making it count today. Even before Legia had nine men against Jagiellonia, the hosts were outplaying them but as per usual, they failed to find the net. If Wisla dominate Legia half as much as Jagiellonia did then Wisla won’t come close to losing this game. Either way – 6/5 on draw no bet is a very good price indeed.
Team news – Legia Warsaw miss Vrdoljak, Astiz, Choto, Borusiuk, Hubnik, Efir, and Chinyama whereas Wisla Krakow have doubts over Malecki and Jaliens.
Verdict: Wisla Krakow to win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Additional games
Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice – home win at 53/50.
The game is irrelevant but there are two driving factors that convince me to back Bohemians 1905 here:
1. They’re dynamite at home. They’ve got arguably the best supporters in the Czech Republic and that has guided them to nine wins in fourteen Gambrinus Liga home games – well, that and their cast-iron defence! Not only have they won six out of their last seven home games but the only two sides to win at Bohemians 1905 this season were Jablonec and Sparta Prague with even league leaders Viktoria Plzen suffering defeat here.
2. Teplice are a mess. There are many, many problems internally at the club that I don’t believe have been made public knowledge yet. They’ve got financial issues and are already looking to axe some of their squad with defender Vidlicka reportedly very close to securing a move to Sparta Prague. Plisek won’t be in charge of the team next season and I think that frustration is beginning to show. The disjointed display that Teplice produced in the Pohar CMFS has sparked off this downtrend because they’ve no chance of European football now and the club knows it has no money. The players are unhappy and most want to leave and not winning a Gambrinus Liga game since the beginning of April is obviously taking its toll on them.
For me, Bohemians 1905 are definitely worth a punt with the above in mind. The hosts don’t care if they need to win or not; their fans expect and demand the wins. Teplice don’t look capable of stopping anyone right now so I have to take the home win here.
Verdict: Bohemians 1905 to win at 53/50.
AC Oulu vs FC Lahti – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Atypically, this Ykkonen clash between two of the best sides in the division should produce goals but I don’t think this one will.
Why? Well, it’s more to do with absences than anything. Both of these two sides still have teams capable of playing Veikkausliiga football so they’re pretty well-matched. However, AC Oulu’s best striker by a mile from last season (Jonke) has now left the club. It’s only happened in the past few days but that’s a huge blow for the hosts. They’ve got some capable attacking players and that should guide them past most of their opponents in this division but against FC Lahti? I’m not so sure. FC Lahti also have attacking problems, however, with Kemppinen and Rafael both still injured. As you all should be aware of already, Jari Litmanen left the club in summer and now plays for HJK Helsinki so that has robbed FC Lahti of their most creative player too. Although I ultimately think that the battle for the Ykkonen title will be between these two clubs, I don’t think they’ll do much against each other today. Neither has produced what I would call “highly-polished” displays thus far and I think we could see a very low-scoring affair here with some key attacking players being available for both teams so under 2.5 goals appeals to me at 4/5.
Team news – FC Lahti miss Rafael and Kemppinen.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.