TFT Issue 114!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Malmo FF vs Helsingborg – both sides to score at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Allsvenskan derby between Malmo and Helsingborg. We can expect a ferocious game with plenty of cards between these two sides as they’re rivals on just about every level and subsequently, I have no idea who will win the game, if anyone!
My interest is basically in backing both sides to score. Why? Well, Malmo haven’t convinced me at the back this season and now that number one goalkeeper Dahlin is out for a while with injury, Malmo’s defence has looked particularly shaky at the back. Unfortunately, things are likely to get worse for them at the back tonight with regular defender Fernandez absent, as is back-up defender Sudic and young midfielder Pekalski. Larsson, Mehmeti, and Rexhepi are still a dangerous threat in attack as the fact that they’ve scored in seven out of their ten games in all competitions so far this season indicates all too well. With Molins and Wilton supporting Malmo’s dangerous attackers, I can’t help but feel that Malmo will at the very least score here, just as they have for seven out of their last eight home games against bitter rivals Helsingborg.
Helsingborg welcome back centre-backs Nilsson and Larsson, as well as pacey hitman Gerndt, so they’re pretty much at full-strength today. They bounced back from defeat at AIK Solna by beating Kalmar FF 1-0 at home in a very composed fashion. That result was particularly impressive as Helsingborg had no centre-backs for that game so fair play to them. Helsingborg haven’t played in a game this season that they’ve not scored in with arising Swedish talent Gerndt really starting to blossom alongside experienced Sundin and fellow youngster Jonsson. Indeed, if you believe the rumours then Gerndt and Jonsson are highly sought-after amongst big European clubs but we’ll see if that materialises in summer. Helsingborg have a very strong midfield with plenty of variety and capability to dominate other midfields due to the vast amount of experience in it. I find it especially useful in scenarios like tonight’s game where Malmo have real problems in central midfield due to injuries. Defensively speaking, Helsingborg are good – they’re hard to break through. However, they’ve played four away games in the Allsvenskan this season and they’ve only kept a clean sheet at newly-promoted Mjallby Solvesborg so Helsingborg are being made to look at least partially human in defence.
I think it’s too early in the season for either side to play well enough to keep the other out here. These two sides met in the Svenska Super Cup back in March, which was coincidentally played in Malmo at Malmo’s Swedbank Stadion – the same venue as tonight’s game. The scoreline ended 1-2 in favour of Helsingborg in that game and just like in that game, I think there’s a good chance of both sides scoring in this match and the odds are decent although it is worth noting that Helsingborg boss Karlsson says that Gerndt will start from the bench tonight.
Team news – Malmo FF miss Dahlin, Fernandez, Pekalski, and Sudic whilst having doubts over Wilton.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Additional game
FK Ventspils vs Siauliai – home win with -1.5 handicap.
As you may have guessed, I haven’t been able to find odds on this selection yet as the bookies don’t always do it until the day of the game and some don’t give them until in-play commences.
However, I feel very strongly about this bet because I fully expect Ventspils to destroy Siauliai. Siauliai have demonstrated zero interest in this competition, often preferring to rest players and I expect nothing less here. Ventspils, on the other hand, always take this competition seriously and always do well in it, primarily because they’re the best side in the Baltic. Admittedly, Ventspils won the first leg 0-2 in Lithuania so they don’t need to do anything here but the relentless efficiency with which Ventspils play utterly convinces me that they’ll approach this game like any other – to win. Siauliai don’t have the quality, the experience, or even the interest to prevent Ventspils winning this game, in my view, and I think Ventspils will stroll to victory today. I’m hoping for odds around 4/5 but I like it either way!
Verdict: FK Ventspils to beat the -1.5 handicap.