TFT Issue 120!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
KuPS Kuopio vs FC Honka Espoo – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga encounter between hit-and-miss KuPS Kuopio and under-achieving FC Honka Espoo. Both sides have very talented attacks but their respective defences are doing each side a lot of damage currently.
KuPS are actually ninth in the Veikkausliiga table currently and considering that they have Ilo, Venelainen, and Nwakaeme in their arsenal, it’s somewhat difficult to comprehend why they’re down there. However, you then have to look at the fact that they’ve conceded nearly two goals per Veikkausliiga game played thus far and it all suddenly falls into place. KuPS have a great deal of potency and it tends to show more at home than it does away, already having won two out of their three home games this season, scoring four goals over those two wins. However, concerningly, they’ve leaked goals in all three of their Veikkausliiga home games thus far and that is proving to be a real issue. They enter this game on the back of a very surprising 0-3 win at IFK Mariehamn in the Suomen Cup Semi-Final in a game where KuPS actually played efficiently, taking their chances expertly and keeping IFK Mariehamn at bay, albeit with the helping hand of the referee every now and then! Is this is the start of KuPS’ season “proper”? Probably not; there’s still some blending in to do, especially if they intend on eradicating their continuous stream of defensive mishaps. However, they’ve scored a decent number of goals in Kuopio this season and their firepower is undeniable so I’ll give them a shot here.
Visitors FC Honka Espoo really need to start getting points on the board because at the moment, they’re looking more like potential relegation fodder rather than European hopefuls. Indeed, the only two sides to score less than Honka thus far are the current bottom two clubs – MyPa Anjalankoski and VPS Vaasa respectively – and given that Honka’s defence is inexperienced and naive, they’re going to find life tough for a while. Honka average conceding two goals per away game in the Veikkausliiga currently due to continual defensive errors and patterns of naivety from the likes of Rexhepi and Aalto. Dudu has settled in well into the Honka attack and now that Demba Savage has reached match fitness again, I expect Honka to start scoring goals again. Indeed, goalscoring isn’t a part of Honka’s game that concerns me, irrespective of their poor record thus far – it’s their weak defence. Aaritalo of TPS Turku ripped Honka’s defence apart last match during the game in Espoo and it’s always the same for Honka in each game – stupid defending costs them points.
Therefore, we potentially have a high-scoring game here. Both sides are making errors at the back but both sides are good goalscoring sides. If you can find odds for it then taking Dudu to score anytime against his former club looks a good bet. Honka have fresher legs than KuPS here as the hosts played in Aland just a few days ago whereas Honka haven’t played for a week. Eight out of the last ten games between these two sides in all competitions have gone over 2.5 goals and with defence a real problem for both sides but points becoming rather essential for both sides, I’m going over 2.5 goals at 5/6 here.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Additional game
TPS Turku vs MyPa Anjalankoski – home win at 9/10.
I also have a strong interest in this game too, although I’d probably leave it if the odds go below 8/10.
Why? Well, it’s all about scoring goals here for me. Ironically, both Turku clubs have had their campaigns kick-started of late by their most important strikers with Inter Turku’s Timo Furuholm steering them to success after success and now TPS Turku’s Mika Aaritalo doing the same for TPS Turku. It’s Aaritalo’s continual hounding of the ball, finesse, and off-the-ball movement that kills teams. Take TPS’ win at Honka last match, for example. It wasn’t as good a game as I had expected but Aaritalo played a huge part in both goals and subsequently TPS won a game that could well have been a draw or even a loss had he not played. TPS aren’t at 100% capacity yet following all their new signings and that’s particularly evident in their defence, which does tend to concede goals. However, I very much admire the attack of TPS and this is the type of game where I’m not too concerned about their defending as I don’t expect their opponents to capitalise on it. Indeed, TPS not only have Aaritalo in attack but also Tarvajarvi and Kuqi, both of which have a terrific level of experience on the continent so I think the hosts can score at least one or two goals here.
Visitors MyPa are in a really sorry state of affairs, however, and that aids this bet massively. It’s doesn’t take a rocket scientist to work out that they’re going to be in the relegation battle this season, whether they want to be or not. They’ve managed to score in just two out of their six Veikkausliiga games this season and it’s not like they’ve been unlucky, either – they’ve been very poor at creating chances and even worse at taking them. Until Votinov broke the deadlock in their win against Haka Valkeakoski last match, absolutely nothing happened between two very poor attacking sides. MyPa took advantage of Haka’s need to push on in their last match and won a penalty from a counter-attack, which resulted in a red card for Lahti. The penalty was somewhat dubious as there was minimal contact but the referee gave it. Haka heads subsequently dropped and MyPa added a third later in the game from a counter-attack and to be fair to MyPa, it’s actually the first good goal that they’ve scored this season with slick passing and a solid finish from substitute Antiilainen. I really wouldn’t read much into this, however – they were the better of two very poor teams last match – today’s game should be very different and even talismanic box-to-box midfielder Okkonen should be helpless to prevent MyPa losing this one today.
Worryingly, MyPa have looked dubious at the back when tested and given that defending is pretty much their sole strength. Korkeakunnas’ side aren’t a threat in attack, even with pacey Innanen in their ranks, so I really fancy them to struggle here. Let’s suppose MyPa somehow take advantage of TPS’ laxity in defence – are they going to score enough to counter the likes of Aaritalo and Tarvajarvi? I’d be surprised to see it. For me, there’s value in a TPS Turku win at 9/10 today.
Team news – MyPa Anjalankoski miss Johansson.
Verdict: TPS Turku to win at 9/10.