TFT Issue 126!
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Toulon Tournament Reviews
Hungary vs Mexico
This one went pretty much as I expected, really. Hungary created the odd chance with Mexico’s defence helping them out from time to time but failed to really take control of the game at any stage and failed to take any of the chances that came their way. Truth be told, Mexico were rarely out of control in the game and consistently looked dangerous in attack, never disbelieving in their own ability to score goals despite the lengthy stalemate in the game. In the end, it took a wonder strike from highly-rated youngster Davila from outside the box into the top corner to open the game up. Hungarian heads dropped a little and a bit of bad luck led to Mexico’s second goal. I’d argue that Mexico deserved their second goal from their overall play but it was a Hungarian clearance inside their own box which bounced off another defender and fell kindly to Mexico’s ever-pressurising strikers and they duly took advantage from close range. Mexico deserved their win and played a good game of football. Davila is definitely one to keep an eye on too, not to mention Orrantia and Torres.
France vs China
I think we all expected a massacre here and that’s what we got. As I mentioned briefly before, this was a different type of game for France; one that tested how good they actually are. I mentioned how well France played against Mexico and that they deserved their win, which was correct. However, Mexico attacked France; it’s another thing entirely for France to take the game entirely to China and break down a pretty well-organised unit. France dealt with that change of tactics superbly, constantly forcing China to play long balls to their lone front man and subsequently, France had the vast majority of the possession for the whole game. They didn’t create as many chances as they could have due to the odd poor pass in the final third and also some good Chinese defending. However, France were not to be demoralised whatsoever and soon found a way through via hot prospect Monrose. The Racing Club Lens attacker ran the show in this game and it was his header that put France ahead. However, the plaudits will go to him for his second goal, which was yet another contender for goal of the tournament as he controlled the ball with one touch and exected a wonderful volley whilst on the swivel from just inside the eighteen-yard box, which duly found its way into the top corner. It was those flashes of genius that seperated the French from the Chinese and a couple of more in the second-half fell their way courtesy of pressure, tiring Chinese legs, and a bit of miscommunication. Bluntly; I’ve not seen a side capable of beating France in this tournament so far and seeing how they’ve dealt with two very different obstacles already, I think they could very well be winners this year, much to my surprise! I didn’t think much of them pre-tournament but my hat goes off to them here – they’ve already progressed to the semi-final following two very convincing displays and that allows them to rest the likes of Monrose against Hungary in their final group game. France have a lot of capable players in this squad and they really must be taken seriously. As for China – they work hard but have no attacking threat, even when gifted chances. I think we’ll see their weakest game of all against Mexico; there’s no way they can keep running, running, and running against all three of these sides in such a short space of time. They have to play this way to counter their superior opponents and although it partially works, it’s not practical long-term so I think they’ll leave this tournament with three heavy defeats to their name.
Featured game
China vs Uzbekistan – home win at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the International Friendly in China between China and Uzbekistan.
China are a side that are generally very hard to play against at home. They work hard for one another and are very hard to break through and subsequently, they don’t concede many goals. Their problem has always been taking their chances themselves, however. Nonetheless, their home record in friendlies is good with four wins in their last five games, beating Honduras, Latvia, Estonia, and the Republic of Macedonia along the way. China usually have a big support behind them, as you’d expect, and thus I expect a good display from them today.
However, the focal part of this bet does stem from the visitors. I rate Uzbekistan quite highly but these guys have just travelled the breadth of Asia to face China when their last game was in Ukraine just four days ago. By my reckoning, that’s a distance of about three to four thousand miles and that is one hell of a journey. Did you know that the Russian Football Association actually brought in special rules to help sides that travel that far? In Division 1, there are two teams that play further east than China – Luch-Energiya Vladivostok and Energiya Khabarovsk. When either of those two sides plays at home or away, they play games in pairs. For instance, if Luch played KamAZ Nab Chelny at home then Energiya Khabarovsk would face them in their next home game so that the journey doesn’t give too much of an advantage to the hosts. The same applies for the away games, incidentally. However, Uzbekistan don’t have the support of a football association here – they’re just going to have to grin and bear it. Uzbekistan played their first team in the Ukraine – well, what little of it they’ve brought! – and were beaten 2-0 against a part “A” and part “B” Ukraine team. Uzbekistan still have two strong attackers in Shatskikh and Geynrikh and a decent midfield behind them with plenty of experience.
However, the absence of Denisov, Ismailov, Inomov, and Gafurov has left Uzbekistan with only Karpenko in defence with any substantial experience and only Nesterov behind him to help out. That caused problems in the game against Ukraine and will most likely cause problems today too. Ukraine could have scored more goals in that game if they finished their chances better and I think a fresh Chinese side will take their chances here.
My sole concern for this bet is that I’ve not seen any team news for China. I can only presume that they’re using a full-strength side here as it makes no sense to do otherwise. Either way, do approach this one with caution. However, I’m sure you’ll agree that 9/10 on China winning this game is certainly worth a nibble today!
Verdict: China to win at 9/10.
Toulon Tournament Today
Colombia vs Italy – under 2.5 goals at evens.
People will look at the results from these two sides so far and say “overs!” immediately; perhaps they’re right.
However, I disagree with that notion. Both sides have stuffed Ivory Coast because Ivory Coast cannot defence. Both sides struggled to break through Portugal despite a good level of pressure and I expect both sides to struggle to get through each other today.
Both sides are physically strong in defence and although I’d make a case for Italy having a stronger defence than Colombia, Murillo has been immense in the tournament so far for the Colombians so I don’t think either side will have it easy here. Italy’s strikers have impressed me with their skill and movement in this tournament, however, and they may fashion a goal from somewhere. Gabbiadini, Borini, and Paloschi have all proved their worth in this tournament although my concern for Italy would be that they’ve convinced in spells rather than consistently, actually missing more chances than they’ve scored. Nonetheless, I do like this Italian side and I won’t go against them here. If anything, Italy may edge this game as Colombia go through James Rodriguez a lot. The Porto playmaker is a superb talent and will have an impact on this game but I envision Italy’s midfield doing a better job on him than both Portugal and Ivory Coast did. If they nullify Rodriguez, Colombia are left with their tempremental widemen like Escobar who can be good but aren’t reliable. Zapata can be a threat, as can Cardona, but I think Italy can keep Colombia out.
I expect an interesting game here but a different one to the kind we’ve seen from these two sides thus far. I may be proven wrong but I think evens on under 2.5 goals is a very generous price here.
Ivory Coast vs Portugal
I know, I know – Ivory Coast have proven themselves to be atrocious. Their defending is nothing short of shambolic and they barely look capable of stringing a couple of passes together. However, my biggest concern behind taking a Portugal -1.5 handicap is their stupidity. They have a good midfield and a solid defence – that’s no problem. Their attackers are not naturally gifted finishers, hence their problems so far in this tournament. The only time they’ve substantially threatened the opposing goal in each game is when they’ve brought towering striker Balde on as he’s the only natural striker they have. Unsurprisingly, he’s scored both of their goals in this tournament thus far but Portugal continue to bench him. If he starts, I’m happy to go with Portugal -1.5. I’ve no doubt they can dominate play here but it’s taking their chances that concerns me here. If Balde starts, I’m on Portugal -1.5 If he doesn’t, I’d just leave it as I don’t see value in backing Portugal to win this game at such short odds. The Ivorians may be terrible in defence but Portugal’s finishing is equally as woeful so be careful with this one today.