TFT Issue 129!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
There’s not much going on today but fortunately, there’s value in the Toulon Tournament Semi-Finals, both of which I’ll preview for you.
Colombia vs Mexico
Hispanic derbies tend to produce a lot of cards and the tactics of both sides may mean we see the same again here.
That aside, I think we’ll see a fairly predictable game here. From Colombia, we’ve seen calm and assured displays. They’ve emulated their senior team by defending very solidly, far better than most South American sides do. Murillo has been excellent in this tournament and few strikers have consistently got the better of him. Colombia’s defence underpins their strong displays in the tournament thus far and that’s what attracts me to them as they do have attacking players capable of winning games if left to their own devices. Playmaker Rodriguez is far too good for this tournament and it’s really shown in all of Colombia’s games. Colombia’s problem is that nobody else is in the same league as he is but they do have some decent players in Zapata, Cardona, Escobar, and Candelo. Colombia attack well as a unit; all they lack is finesse, just like their first-team! However, it’s going to take something special to displace them here and I don’t think Mexico have it.
I really rate Mexico’s attack; they’ve got some truly wonderful players in Orrantia, Torres, and Davila. If they’re allowed to play then Mexico can beat anyone in this tournament – it’s as simple as that. However, what I saw from Mexico in their must-win game against China was a difficulty to break through stubborn defences, which is precisely what Colombia have. Mexico were very frustrated by China and it showed in their players last match. Mexico may have dominated play against China but they scored because of the Chinese goalkeeper giving away a penalty unnecessarily and dropping the ball for the second goal. Mexico do have attacking power but it only tends to show against sides that attack them and I think that’ll go against them here as Colombia play a rather defensive and “containing” game.
Therefore, under 2.5 goals holds massive appeal for me here. However, the bookies have approached that market in a rather astute fashion as 7/10 is about right, in my view, so I don’t see value there. However, as a unit, Colombia are the better side here so the Colombian victory at 6/4 really intrigues me here, so long as the South Americans defend as well in this game as they have in previous games.
Verdict: Colombia to win at 6/4.
France vs Italy
I had my doubts pre-tournament about France but based on what I’ve seen in their last few games, there’s no side in this tournament that can beat them and Italy are no exception to that rule.
France have so much attacking power and they attack so fluently as a team that they’re almost impossible to defend against. Mexico attacked them and lost 4-1. China sat back and let France play in front of them but they lost 4-0. How can you stop them? You can’t, to be honest. Hungary got a draw against France because France were wasteful with their squad rotation players, not because the Magyars played particularly well. France have some problems in defence but when attackers like Monrose are destroying your opponents and allowing your team to score three or four goals per game, it doesn’t tend to matter. France are at home and have good momentum ahead of this game so I really fancy them to do well here.
I didn’t fancy Italy pre-tournament and I don’t fancy them now. True enough, they surprised me initially but have since been disappointing due to persistent squad rotation, especially in defence. I’ve never seen a manager that rotates his centre-backs more than Ferrara but there we are. Italy’s strikers have looked sharp and I like Paloschi, Gabbiadini, and Borini a lot. However, they don’t look terrific elsewhere and can be got at with the correct leverage, which I believe France will apply here. Italy may score in this game but can they outscore France? Not with the chances they consistently waste, in my view.
I’m left with no choice but to consider that France are a fantastic bet at 7/5 because they should never be that long. Hell, some bookies have them with draw no bet at 4/5, which is yet another bargain. France are the better side here and should make it count on home turf.
Verdict: France to win at 7/5.