TFT Issue 131!
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Featured game
IFK Mariehamn vs Jaro Pietarsaari – home win at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga encounter in Aland between IFK Mariehamn and Jaro Pietarsaari. Generally speaking, with Jaro Pietarsaari still lacking a central midfield, I’d have to favour IFK Mariehamn to be the better of these two sides but don’t approach this one recklessly – Jaro are only a couple of players away from being very similar to IFK Mariehamn.
Nonetheless, playing in Aland is an advantage that IFK love to have and they tend to make it count too. The international break came at the perfect time for the hosts, who were clearly struggling to juggle the Suomen Cup and the Veikkausliiga and their form subsequently suffered. I was impressed with their energy during their 2-0 defeat at VPS Vaasa in their last Veikkausliiga game but their age-old problems on the road re-emerged as they failed to make a sufficient number of concrete chances and they defending rather naively.
At home, it almost seems like IFK can magically remove all of their problems and just play their in-your-face attacking game that has seen them scare the life out of their opponents. RoPS shouldn’t have got the 3-3 draw here but fortune favoured them on that day. TPS Turku produced a rare display to win here by somehow being well-organised with a team composed of strangers. HJK Helsinki, however, were the ones that suffered the wrath of IFK and realised just what they’re capable of as they lost 2-0 here. IFK were magnificent on the day, working hard, taking their chances, and not stopping for the full ninety minutes. There’s maybe something in the sea air that inspires them to good displays at home that isn’t present away from home (more often than not) but whatever it is, IFK look strong at home, especially with young Forsell really coming of age.
Visitors Jaro Pietarsaari have a lot to thank boss Eremenko for. I’m not confident other Veikkausliiga managers could have done with Jaro what he has in the past couple of seasons and Jaro are still producing some decent displays this season despite a complete absence of a central midfield. I can only presume that they’ll be smart and move for Okkonen when MyPa are inevitably relegated but until then, they’re struggling in the middle. Now, it depends on the opponent that Jaro faces as to how much that affects their play. For example, Jaro only lost 1-0 at HJK Helsinki and HJK operate largely down the flanks. However, they were drubbed 1-3 by Inter Turku, who attack through the middle a lot as well as taking the odd wide appraoch so a lot hinges on IFK here.
I just don’t see anything but IFK trying to expose Jaro through the middle as that’s where Forsell loves to prowl and he’s been spectacular so far this season. There should be plenty of energy from both sides and I think the pace of Zeze and Niang could cause problems in the IFK defence. However, if you win the midfield battle with Jaro, you beat them, and that’s what I expect to happen in this game. The scoreline 2-1 comes to mind but my call is the home win as it’s reasonably priced at 9/10.
Verdict: IFK Mariehamn to win at 9/10.
Toulon Tournament
Italy vs Mexico – under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Italy were perhaps a shade unfortunate to not get something off under-performing France but they didn’t because they were wasteful – again. They have more energy than I’d expected them to but it counts for little without taking their chances. Still, despite their constant rotation at the back, they tend to defend well and only a piece of magic from France in their last game won the match for France. Italy are good enough to do what China and Colombia both did to Mexico by preventing them lots of goalscoring opportunities, which subsequently frustrates them and leads to them scoring few goals and those that do find a way in are usually spectacular and unstoppable anyway. Mexico are suspect at the back and will concede in this game eventually, whenever Italy actually decide to score. My concern is that Italy really go for them and taking their chances both at the same time – that could produce a rout. However, I think Italy will do what Italy do best by winning the game fairly comfortably without conceding and with the above in mind, the odds on under 2.5 goals are appealing today.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
France vs Colombia – under 2.5 goals at 10/11.
I don’t really know which France will show up today – that’s the big problem here. On one hand, we have a France side that can score four goals per game if they choose to but on the other hand, we have a France side that struggles against tenacity and doesn’t create anything. Who will triumph here for France’s internal conquest? Impossible to say. Colombia will pack the midfield and defence as that’s what has worked for them all tournament long. They’ve scored some superb goals, Colombia, but that in itself masks that they actually struggle to create clear-cut chances and that will most likely cost them today. Murillo’s ability at the back will be tested by the immense Monrose and co. today and I expect to see some of the best players in the tournament strut their stuff with Colombia’s leader Rodriguez being one of them. France’s defence proved last match that they’re not impossible to break through whatsoever but I doubt Colombia’s ability up front to capitalise on that. I think we’ll see a tight, shrewd, and calculating game between these two sides with Colombia allowing France most of the possession but packing the midfield and defence. Subsequently, under 2.5 goals looks generously priced at evens as I don’t see Colombia conceding more than once and I don’t see Colombia scoring more than once. Football can be a funny old game but the odds on the under 2.5 goals selection do seem generous today and that’s my call here.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 10/11.