TFT Issue 139!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
IFK Mariehamn vs FC Honka Espoo – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga encounter in Aland between IFK Mariehamn and FC Honka Espoo. As always, this will be a difficult trip for the away team but I fancy them to nick it today, if either of these sides do win it.
I don’t lightly go against IFK Mariehamn, even with slight inklings as to victors, but I have to say that the hosts are going to struggle without Nigerian attacker Okodugha, as he’s out for the majority of the season through injury. Not only does that damage IFK’s goal threat but also their width and that heaps the pressure even moreso on Forsell in the middle of the park. They really need Ingves and Kangaskolkka to produce the goods for the remainder of the season as Lehtinen seldom scores from more than six yards out so bluntly – IFK are doing to have problems for the remainder of this season, in my view. They lost 2-1 at JJK Jyvaskyla a few days ago and that defeat was merited, in my view. They unfortunately lost integral defender during that game as he was dismissed for a fairly harmless but very clumsy challenge in the box and he’ll subsequently miss this game through suspension. Given that IFK Mariehamn aren’t the strongest at the back at the best of times, I can really see them struggling to get a result today.
Honka are regrettably something of an enigma this season so I can’t tip the away win here as they may or may not show up. If they play like they did at home to TPS Turku or away against Haka Valkeakoski today then they’ll not win this game. However, if they play like they have done against both HJK Helsinki and Jaro Pietarsaari lately then they stand a good chance of winning this one. Honka’s attack is becoming stronger now that Savage and Dudu are getting frequent chances to work together and Honka are really benefiting from it. Additionally, Otaru is finally back from injury and slotting him into a midfield that Varynen, Schuller, and Aijala have kept afloat this season should be an interesting combination. As we all know, Honka only know to attack; this side cannot defend for shit due to naivety and inexperience at the back. However, going forward, there’s few Veikkausliiga sides better than they are and with Trafford out for the hosts at the back, you have to fancy Honka to score a couple here if they show up.
IFK Mariehamn have only kept one clean sheet in four home games in the Veikkausliiga this season and that was during their 2-0 win against HJK Helsinki in which IFK produced their best display of the season and still required HJK to miss a few chances to do so. Honka don’t need anyone to not show up to score goals, however – they just need to want it enough. Given that they’ve shown great desire and potency in their last two games, irrespective of the scorelines, I fancy them to do well here. I’m still not confident enough to take them to win this game – I need more convincing yet – but this game going over 2.5 goals (just as it has for three consecutive Veikkausliiga games in Aland) really appeals to me at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Additional games
KuPS Kuopio vs TPS Turku – away win with draw no bet at evens.
I don’t like going against KuPS but I really have to do so today because they’re not taking their chances and their frustration is really starting to show. They somehow lost to a terrible Haka Valkeakoski side last match and having seen the highlights, it’s becoming increasingly apparent as to why KuPS aren’t winning games like that, which are games they should be winning.
Ultimately, what happened in Valkeakoski was that KuPS fell upon their own sword. Their goalkeeper nearly gave two goals away by himself, one of which actually went in but was incorrectly ruled out for a foul on the goalkeeper as Metzger slid in on him but that wasn’t the case – Metzger got the ball fair and square for my money. KuPS contined to implode with shoddy defending – poor offside traps, lack of confidence, poor positioning – and it happened so often that even shitty Haka eventually capitalised, with Metzger rounding the ‘keeper from a one-on-one and slotting home. KuPS did create chances, as you’d expect with such firepower, but the one they actually scored was incorrectly ruled out for a foul. Aside from that, their finishing lacked conviction with one rocket being smashed against the crossbar that really should have found the target. KuPS definitely have the personnel to be much higher in the Veikkausliiga but they’re not taking their chances currently and it’s really starting to show. Frustration set in at Haka and Nigerian midfielder Udah was later dismissed for a second bookable offence and he subsequently misses today’s game, which is a further blow for KuPS.
TPS Turku must be rubbing their hands with glee at how much KuPS have capitulated of late because this really isn’t an easy game. TPS have eased into their own groove of late, which also helps. They’ve lost just once in seven games and they’ve won five of those. Why the sudden change, though? Well, it’s a combination of two things – the TPS newbies starting to gel and the leadership of Aaritalo. Everyone is raving about Furuholm and rightfully so as he’s in great form but so is Aaritalo. The strength of the towering front man is something that I’ve not seen any defence handle in TPS Turku’s games lately and it’s almost always contributed to TPS Turku winning the game. Aaritalo is an ideal target man and TPS Turku bounce all their moves off him, one way or another. Helpfully, whilst sides try – and fail – to mark Aaritalo out of the game, that leaves Kuqi and/or Tarvajarvi unmarked, and they’re both also very good strikers. Kuqi needs to cut out the shit that he displayed by trying to rattle one of Inter Turku’s players late match but as a striker, he knows what he’s doing. Additionally, the balance in the middle with holding midfielder N’Galula and playmaker Kolehmainen looks solid and TPS Turku are really benefiting from such unity in the team. They were arguably a tad fortunate to hold onto the win against Inter Turku in the derby a few days ago as they succumbed to a lot of late pressure from their local rivals but throughout the course of the game, I’d argue that TPS Turku deserved it by being more consistent and simply wanting it more. TPS are really playing well at the moment and I have to side with them here as a result.
As much as I like KuPS, they’ve only beaten sides at home this season that they know they can beat, if that makes sense. They’ve entertained Inter Turku and Honka Espoo at home and have failed to score in both games whilst being largely outplayed. They can deal with the likes of IFK Mariehamn, VPS Vaasa, and MyPa Anjalankoski but there are still some sides beyond them and currently, I rate TPS Turku as one of those unattainable sides for KuPS. For me, the away win with draw no bet at evens represents really good value here.
Verdict: TPS Turku to win with draw no bet at evens.
Jippo Joensuu vs FC Lahti – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
I’m looking at the odds on FC Lahti winning this game and the alarm bells are really ringing here.
I’ve said many times that AC Oulu and FC Lahti are the top two sides in the Ykkonen and I stand by that. However, FC Lahti are not as good at goalscoring as their title rivals are and it’s shown. Admittedly, club legend Rafael is back but he’s not match fit yet, whether he plays or not. Kemppinen’s return has improved their goalscoring record with four goals in four games – that’s a big plus for the visitors. However, leading goalscorer Shala is the kind of player that could really struggle here as Jippo are very difficult to break through when they want to be. Consider that the only time have really unleashed away from home this season was defender-less PoPa Pori and you’ll see what I mean. FC Lahti are the superior side here but are these odds correct? I don’t think so.
Why? Well, Jippo are one of those sides that nobody likes to play against. Generally speaking, they won’t lose many games and those they do lose will only be by the odd goal. They’re a totally unadventurous defensive side but they’re pretty damn good at it, which is why they’ve not been relegated to the Kakkonen in the past few years. It’s a miracle to me how a club like this can produce any young talent like Lauri Dalla Valle whilst playing such uninspired football but that’s the way it goes, I suppose! Jippo are still without a win in the Ykkonen this season and that has to be playing on their minds. I certainly don’t see them having the confidence to win this game, especially with star midfielder Reponen absent. I do, however, sit them sitting back to try and contain FC Lahti so the under 2.5 goals approach intrigues me here.
There’s obviously danger in this selection as FC Lahti are in-form at the moment and the hosts do miss two of their regular defenders at the back. However, Jippo are a side I have a great deal of faith in at home when it comes to preventing other sides from playing football and I think we’ll see a good display of that today. I don’t see the hosts scoring without Reponen in midfield (unless Keister just produces something randomly, which he is capable of from time to time) but I don’t think FC Lahti will run riot here – few do. Therefore, under 2.5 goals interests me here.
Team news – Jippo Joensuu miss Reponen, Pirinen, Korpela, and Niemelainen whereas FC Lahti miss Eerola, Kose, and Hertsi.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
UEFA European U21 Championship today
Both of these two games leave me cold today. Spain are already through and may rest a few players here and thus I doubt their ability to actually score goals even more, especially against a tenacious Ukrainian side. I still think the Spanish will win it but I see no value in the game at all. Ukraine have nothing to lose here and my change a few players themselves so perhaps under 2.5 goals looks worthwhile but the odds aren’t great. As for England – I just don’t like the game. The Czechs are more than capable of stifling England both sides are good going forward. Over 2.5 goals interests me here but the reason England are in the current position of this being a must-win game for them is because they haven’t been taking their chances so I can’t endorse over 2.5 goals here. Honestly, I’d just avoid both games today.